2025 Federal Election - Prediction Thread

[Hank Scorpion]

Early voting opens this week - so to follow on from previous editions (with 2022 won by Ned_Flanders) a thread to post your prediction of the total seats won by ALP, L/NP, and the crossbench. Any other detail you want to add in an attempt to look prescient - go nuts.

Bragging rights for whoever is closest. Entries valid so long as posted/edited before close at 6PM AEST on the day.

Starting point per the ABC is ALP 78 (with Menzies and Aston held notionally,) L/NP 57 (with Bennelong held notionally,) and a crossbench of 15.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Mine:

ALP: 74 (-4)
L/NP: 58 (+1)
Crossbench: 16, with
GRN: 4 (-)
IND 14 (+3)

ALP Gain: Bennelong* (NSW) Brisbane (QLD), Sturt (SA)
L/NP Gain: Gilmore (NSW), Paterson (NSW), Aston* (Vic), Menzies* (Vic) McEwen (Vic), Bullwinkel (WA)
GRN Gain: Wills (Vic)
IND Gain: Bradfield (NSW), Cowper (NSW), Wannon (Vic)

2PP: 52-48 to ALP, a whisker below 2022. Combined major party vote to drop below 65%.

And my smoky one to watch is for Werriwa to fall out of the ALP's hands for the first time since the Depression. A sour note amidst an otherwise positive night.

 

[pjcrows]

If Labor win Sturt they'll win a majority.

I think it'll be a Labor minority government. 73-75 seats.

 

[Jascave]

The one thing to watch out on election night is how many federal seats Labor is going to lose in Victoria, due to the unpopularity of Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen. It could be a sign of things to come in the Victorian state election in 12 months time.

 

[JackFlash]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If Labor win Sturt they'll win a majority.

I think it'll be a Labor minority government. 73-75 seats.

Agree, imo a minority ALP government.

Independents to be the biggest winners.

 

[magpies2013]

If Spud does perform a 2019 miracle and wins all these pollsters should all be out of a job

 

[Cap]

If Labor win Sturt they'll win a majority.

I think it'll be a Labor minority government. 73-75 seats.

Saw my first LNP Sturt specific ad yesterday from James Stevens.

First time I've seen him in 3 yrs.

But listening to various pundits, Labor are ahead in Sturt, mainly due to many people in the seat being Public servants who don't want to be forced back to the office for no good reason.

 

[blueboy25]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and a lineup of Hume, Mckenzie, Ley, Sukkar, Patterson, Hastie and Good job Angus.

 

[Gough]

Saw my first LNP Sturt specific ad yesterday from James Stevens.

First time I've seen him in 3 yrs.

But listening to various pundits, Labor are ahead in Sturt, mainly due to many people in the seat being Public servants who don't want to be forced back to the office for no good reason.

The Libs have had three years to come up with policy yet this whole campaign has had the feel of a student knocking out three thousand words on the night before it's due.

 

[Cap]

The Libs have had three years to come up with policy yet this whole campaign has had the feel of a student knocking out three thousand words on the night before it's due.

It seems clear that they thought they'd ride the inflation discontent into power having to avoid any scrutiny.

Fortunately Australia has systems in place to stop the con.

Going to be fascinating see what the early polls look like once counting starts.

I still think hung parliament, but seeing Dutton lead the libs backwards (and hopefully loses his own seat) would be funny.

 

[Mofra]

I still think hung parliament, but seeing Dutton lead the libs backwards (and hopefully loses his own seat) would be funny.

I expect Dutton holds his seat but it will be "too close to call" overnight and not called until the next day.

 

[Saint Shags]

I'm not sold on the polls. 2019 still very fresh.
At this stage can still see the Coalition take it out. And a lot comes down to Victoria.
Early voting would suggest that many have already chosen so perhaps that is a positive for Labor but early voting last time wasn't good for the incumbents.

 

[Donakebab]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

So Dutton and co have completely bottled what was looking like a lay down misere, but it's the other lot that are incompetent.

Solid JackFlash logic.

 

[Cap]

I expect Dutton holds his seat but it will be "too close to call" overnight and not called until the next day.

You would think that's how it plays out. Probably going to be like that in a whole host of seats

 

[Cap]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

Why do you not like the independent candidates?

They offer similar things to the Libs without appealing to the ignorant and intolerant.

Seems like a worthy vote winner. Unless you are one of ignorant and intolerant I guess.

 

[Donakebab]

Why do you not like the independent candidates?

They offer similar things to the Libs without appealing to the ignorant and intolerant.

Seems like a worthy vote winner. Unless you are one of ignorant and intolerant I guess.

Yeah about that...

 

[carltonchelsea]

Sadly Albo will win, Australians are not too bright, let's hope that the consolation prize is the total defeat of all Greens and Teals candidates. Dutton has blown this election with a poor campaign and we will be stuck with these incompetents for another 3 years. Bowen, Watt, Marles, Chalmers, Wong, Gallagher and the king bunny of them all Albo himself. The mind boggles!

Hey mate, I’d like to take this opportunity to personally thank you for creating Liberal Party Policy for this election and ghost writing Peters media responses and debate tactics.
You’ve done a cracking job, you should ask for a raise, from the the Labor Party?!

 

[aCunningPlan]

I'll have a crack for now, honestly just expecting something similar to the status quo at this point.

ALP 77
LNP 56
GREEN 4
IND/OTHER 12

 

[QuietB]

The one thing to watch out on election night is how many federal seats Labor is going to lose in Victoria, due to the unpopularity of Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen. It could be a sign of things to come in the Victorian state election in 12 months time.

Dutton is more unpopular in Victoria than Jacinta Allen - which is quite the feat

 

[JackFlash]

As early voting continues i can't see any hope for Dutton at all, i will be very surprised if this is close and expect Albo to win in a landslide. The best result will be the defeat of the Teals and Greens as much as possible. Australia is a strange place in 2025, its people even stranger. People are frustrated, they are angry, cost of living is exorbitant, infrastructure is financially out of control and the crime rate is now ridiculous. Plus it's a dangerous place! However the people won't do anything about it?

 

[1990crow]

Labor majority with 79 seats.

 

[1990crow]

As early voting continues i can't see any hope for Dutton at all, i will be very surprised if this is close and expect Albo to win in a landslide. The best result will be the defeat of the Teals and Greens as much as possible. Australia is a strange place in 2025, its people even stranger. People are frustrated, they are angry, cost of living is exorbitant, infrastructure is financially out of control and the crime rate is now ridiculous. Plus it's a dangerous place! However the people won't do anything about it?

Nah. The conservative thieves of this country are beginning to be outnumbered and it's glorious.

 

[nut]

As early voting continues i can't see any hope for Dutton at all, i will be very surprised if this is close and expect Albo to win in a landslide. The best result will be the defeat of the Teals and Greens as much as possible. Australia is a strange place in 2025, its people even stranger. People are frustrated, they are angry, cost of living is exorbitant, infrastructure is financially out of control and the crime rate is now ridiculous. Plus it's a dangerous place! However the people won't do anything about it?

So the option is Dutton … higher taxes… cuts to services… 15 years of waiting for clean energy.. dropping EV and Battery incentives… higher HECS debt, worse aged care, dropping penalty rates, higher medics costs, higher power prices…..
but we will have more bombs.

 

[Cap]

So the option is Dutton … higher taxes… cuts to services… 15 years of waiting for clean energy.. dropping EV and Battery incentives… higher HECS debt, worse aged care, dropping penalty rates, higher medics costs, higher power prices…..
but we will have more bombs.

Its funny I was speaking to a LNP voter, who is a business owner and they are voting LNP because they want lower wages.

I wonder if that is consistent across the board.

to be fair on them, that is a legitimate reason for them and atleast they were honest.