Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Sunny Land]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/05/02/theyre-6-1-but-the-lions-have-a-glaring-weakness-and-it-might-just-stop-them-going-back-to-back/

Interesting article with not a lot of surprising news really.
Not sure any team in the competition wins games without their midfiled winning the battle. Don't quite understand why we are any different to the other contenders this year.

 

[Nunez]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/05/02/theyre-6-1-but-the-lions-have-a-glaring-weakness-and-it-might-just-stop-them-going-back-to-back/

TL'DR: averaging just one more goal against than last year and if our entire midfield group have an off day we lose (Pies).

I wonder how many AFL teams are still winning games if their whole midfield has an off game at the same time? My guess is zero.

We saw a much better defensive effort last week from our mids and will only look better when we get Coleman, Starce and Lohmann back into the team.

 

[martinson]

Well that was a pessimistic article putting us in the second tier or the high end top third tier of teams competing , maybe looking at an early September exit.

We've won 19 of our last 21 ,or something like that.

A shame it's all falling apart without us knowing.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Well that was a pessimistic article putting us in the second tier or the high end top third tier of teams competing , maybe looking at an early September exit.

We've won 19 of our last 21 ,or something like that.

A shame it's all falling apart without us knowing.

Doomed by the stats!

To me, the only two stats that really matter are having the winning score each week and ladder position after the final round!

 

[martinson]

But just on that article what's wrong with relying on your M/F if they're really good. If they stink it up you lose. Like everyone else. And you're going to lose anyway if they're just not good enough.

The only area of the ground where we have what you would call a weakness , provided we get a couple of players back in the backline, is with KPF's. I still have hopes Hipwood will make a consistent A Grader and the author hasn't spent much time watching him this year. Morris is young but very promising . We don't have what you would call a focal point . Which is why we're after OA to improve that part of our game.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I wouldn't have thought Dem would be bold enough to write another anti-Lions piece this year, considering how that went for him in 2024.

 

[Nunez]

I wouldn't have thought Dem would be bold enough to write another anti-Lions piece this year, considering how that went for him in 2024.

Especially an anti-Lions piece that essentially is "if none of the Lions mids rock up they will lose" in a season we've already seen we can win with Neale getting 10 touches, Ashcroft having an off game and Clugg getting tagged.

 

[martinson]

I wouldn't have thought Dem would be bold enough to write another anti-Lions piece this year, considering how that went for him in 2024.

Far too early to draw conclusions on anyone yet tbh.

2 sides of the coin for us . We've been a bit lucky and patchy. But we're not even half wound up. And just say we get a fit and firing Starcevich ,Coleman and Lohman in that team. There's some extra goals right there.

 

[martinson]

Everyone's in love with the Dogs all of a sudden. And we saw the Saints last night, apparently they're on the right track.

Well we rolled both of those.

I can imagine Kingy ,KC and the other knockers having a field day if the Suns win tomorrow.

 

[Tom14]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/05/02/theyre-6-1-but-the-lions-have-a-glaring-weakness-and-it-might-just-stop-them-going-back-to-back/

I knew who wrote this before I even clicked on it lol.

 

[Tom14]

Lol

 

[Tom14]

I wouldn't have thought Dem would be bold enough to write another anti-Lions piece this year, considering how that went for him in 2024.

5 ****en articles since the 2022 trade period!

Unsurprisingly wrote NOTHING about us actually winning the flag.

 

[Crusha]

LolView attachment 2303479

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Expert ........?
This bloke's a classic example of a "Drip under pressure".

 

[Elixuh]

LolView attachment 2303479

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Let him cook.

 

[thedaz]

Hrm, perhaps the player ratings produced by the AFL are cooked. While I've published them, not sure I endorse them



I've got a bit more on my blog if you're interested.

 

[Section 5]

Things looking pretty good ladder wise. Also, good player wise except in our forward/ruck depth position.
Hopefully we can restrict North to a low score on Sunday and increase our % a bit.

Below images showing where we were positioned at this time the previous 2 years.

In 2023 we were 4th with 6 wins and 122%
In 2024 13th with just 3 wins but our 100% percentage indicated we were there abouts.

Now in 2025 we are looking good sitting 1st with 8 wins and percentage of 114%. A bit on the low side for a top team

Lions, Hawks and Dogs all ended up on 14 wins last year with our draw pushing us 2 points ahead of them.
A good effort from all 3 clubs to turn their season around after all had slow starts.

Below from Final Siren https://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp

 

[Grasshopper17]

Things looking pretty good ladder wise. Also, good player wise except in our forward/ruck depth position.
Hopefully we can restrict North to a low score on Sunday and increase our % a bit.

Below images showing where we were positioned at this time the previous 2 years.

In 2023 we were 4th with 6 wins and 122%
In 2024 13th with just 3 wins but our 100% percentage indicated we were there abouts.

Now in 2025 we are looking good sitting 1st with 8 wins and percentage of 114%. A bit on the low side for a top team

Lions, Hawks and Dogs all ended up on 14 wins last year with our draw pushing us 2 points ahead of them.
A good effort from all 3 clubs to turn their season around after all had slow starts.

Below from Final Siren https://finalsiren.com/AFLLadder.asp

View attachment 2307711

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Yes, interestingly in 2022 at this stage we were also 7-1, but with a % of 151.4!

What's most staggering out of all that is that not only were we not top of the ladder at that point, we weren't even in the top 2:


That season the top 4 clubs were a combined 28-4. This season they are 24-7. So the comp is just that little bit more even this year it seems so far.

In 2022 of course things ended very badly for Melbourne. They got to 10-0 before they won just 6 of their last 14 and went out in straight sets.

We had our own struggles too tho. We went from 8-1 to 15-7 by season's end, with an unconvincing 7-6 split to the the regular season. Our % also slid from 151.8 after Round 9 to 119.3 at the finish.

So history has enough examples that it's very often not the fastest out of the gates who get the job done in September. Sydney last year is a perfect example of this: 13-1 @ 148.8 before going 6-6 to end the season, with a couple of big beltings in there.

Obviously we will take where we are on the ladder at the moment but our % is hardly compelling at 114.4. Outside of our last season it's the lowest % we've had at this stage of a season since 2019.

So it's really in the eye of the beholder whether you're glass half full about this. You're either "we're top of the ladder with so much upside still" or maybe you're "a lot of our guys are playing well right now and we still have the worst for and against record out of any of the top 7 teams". I'm probably in the former category, but cautiously so... Hopefully our conditioning team is helping us time our run to hit August and September in peak condition.

 

[Nunez]

Yes, interestingly in 2022 at this stage we were also 7-1, but with a % of 151.4!

What's most staggering out of all that is that not only were we not top of the ladder at that point, we weren't even in the top 2:
View attachment 2307783

That season the top 4 clubs were a combined 28-4. This season they are 24-7. So the comp is just that little bit more even this year it seems so far.

In 2022 of course things ended very badly for Melbourne. They got to 10-0 before they won just 6 of their last 14 and went out in straight sets.

We had our own struggles too tho. We went from 8-1 to 15-7 by season's end, with an unconvincing 7-6 split to the the regular season. Our % also slid from 151.8 after Round 9 to 119.3 at the finish.

So history has enough examples that it's very often not the fastest out of the gates who get the job done in September. Sydney last year is a perfect example of this: 13-1 @ 148.8 before going 6-6 to end the season, with a couple of big beltings in there.

Obviously we will take where we are on the ladder at the moment but our % is hardly compelling at 114.4. Outside of our last season it's the lowest % we've had at this stage of a season since 2019.

So it's really in the eye of the beholder whether you're glass half full about this. You're either "we're top of the ladder with so much upside still" or maybe you're "a lot of our guys are playing well right now and we still have the worst for and against record out of any of the top 7 teams". I'm probably in the former category, but cautiously so... Hopefully our conditioning team is helping us time our run to hit August and September in peak condition.

100% this. Confident we will peak at the right time, especially so considering we still have Coleman, Lohmann, Starce & potentially Doedee to come back in.

 

[Grasshopper17]

No changes to the makeup of the seedings this week but the order has had a real shakeup!

#1 Collingwood (804) - did the business against Essendon.

#2 Hawthorn (763) - The model expected the Hawks to beat West Coast by more than 50, so they lose points despite winning.

#3 Western Bulldogs (754) - impressive performance against the Giants so a nice big uptick here.

#4 Geelong (726) - Carlton were a mid-rated team so Geelong's 3 goal loss was frowned upon.

We gained a spot and 109 rating points, to #5 and 620. Still a strong performance or two away from getting back in the seedings, but we've moved ahead of the Giants this week.

Plenty of other big movers this week. Gold Coast the best performance of the round, up 188, Carlton up 129, North up 122 despite losing, and Fremantle up 106.

I still have the Suns at #11 (+90), so the model favours us by 14 points this Sunday.

I need to update my seedings. By the way, this all started last year because Gerard and Kingy would do their seedings every week, and they would jump around so much week-to-week that they basically lost all meaning and Gerard's regular comeback was "if you don't like them, do your own". So I thought f**k it, I will.

Now Bucks does the seedings with Gerard instead and I quite enjoy their balance. Gerard is still flighty and all over the shop. "Hostage to the moment" as he likes to say. Bucks on the other hand is far more cautious, and takes more of a long term view, so he doesn't make big moves from week to week. Mine are probably somewhere in the middle. In theory, they assign a 10% weight to the most recent game, with a gradual decrease week-by-week from there.

#1 Western Bulldogs (1019) - a compelling performance against Port on Saturday. In fact they've been excellent ever since they played us in Gather Round, so they fully deserve to be the top seed right now in my view, regardless of their ladder position.

#2 Hawthorn (799) - basically did the business against Richmond. A small points gain here.

#3 Collingwood (777) - expected to win against Geelong but lose few admirers in what was a cracking match, so only a small points hit here.

#4 Geelong (741) - they gain the points Collingwood lose (more or less).

Our win over Gold Coast was basically right on expectations, so we stay #5 with 628 rating points.

Outside of the Dogs (and therefore Port), the other big movers this week were St Kilda, up 270 with their upset flogging of Freo, and Adelaide who gained 228 with their win over Carlton.

North have showed a bit in recent weeks, but I still have them at #16 (-1173), and we're favoured to beat them this week by 48 points. We've formed a bit of a habit of going through the motions against the lower ranked teams this season, so if this margin eventuates on Sunday I'll be a pretty happy vegemite.

And if you don't like my seedings, do your own!

 

[Tom14]

This week's This Week in Football is a banger as per usual: https://thisweekinfootball.com/twif/week-9-2025/

Of most relevance to us is this piece on control vs chaos. I've reproduced the whole thing as I think it is critical to understand a few reasons why we haven't been quite as dynamic offensively:

The Brisbane Lions won the 2024 premiership on the back of some of the best ball movement we’ve seen since the Clarkson-era Hawks. They sliced and diced through opposition zones with quick-release kicks —finding uncontested marks in tight spaces to suck in defenders and opening space for their dynamic forward line to exploit.

In what is typically a copycat league, you’d expect more clubs to adopt Brisbane’s blueprint in 2025. Yet, surprisingly, many teams appear to be zigging when we expect them to zag.

Consider the question: Are opposition defenses tightening the screws to nullify the strengths of the reigning premiers? Or is there a broad acknowledgment that Brisbane’s style is difficult to replicate without the right personnel?I lean toward the former—led by the likes of Collingwood, teams are beginning to master the dark arts of stalling opposition movement without conceding a 50m penalty. So much so, Brad Scott requested a please explain to the AFL umpiring department.

If we revisit each team’s use of quick-release kicks in 2025, similar patterns emerge.

Quick-release kicks are defined as kicks to and from an uncontested mark occurring in under 3 seconds.
Note: The available data is rounded to the nearest second and may lack precision depending on capture timing.

Most of last year’s leaders—Brisbane, St Kilda, Essendon, and Fremantle—have experienced a noticeable drop in their ability to find uncontested marks through quick-release kicks.

With a shift back towards chaos across the league this year – 54% compared to 44% in 2024 – the control brigade, led by Brisbane, will be hoping the umpiring department are listening.

To add to the excellent analysis I'd also throw in the harsher interpretation of 15m as a reason why quick release kicks are down - there is more risk to a quick kick backwards inside D50.

 

[Grasshopper17]

This week's This Week in Football is a banger as per usual: https://thisweekinfootball.com/twif/week-9-2025/

Of most relevance to us is this piece on control vs chaos. I've reproduced the whole thing as I think it is critical to understand a few reasons why we haven't been quite as dynamic offensively:



View attachment 2308141







View attachment 2308145
Quick-release kicks are defined as kicks to and from an uncontested mark occurring in under 3 seconds.
Note: The available data is rounded to the nearest second and may lack precision depending on capture timing.



To add to the excellent analysis I'd also throw in the harsher interpretation of 15m as a reason why quick release kicks are down - there is more risk to a quick kick backwards inside D50.

Yes even we are playing faster I think. Altho I think our shift started essentially in our Semi Final against the Giants. I don't watch other teams regularly enough to know exactly what their rationale is for playing the way they do, but with us there seems to be an element of taking what the defence gives us.

I still think our kick-mark is plan A, certainly behind halfway. But once we're getting beyond centre, if we're given the chance to accelerate via mark and handball receive, particularly through the corridor, we're taking those opportunities more than I've seen previously.

 

[Tom14]

Yes even we are playing faster I think. Altho I think our shift started essentially in our Semi Final against the Giants. I don't watch other teams regularly enough to know exactly what their rationale is for playing the way they do, but with us there seems to be an element of taking what the defence gives us.

I still think our kick-mark is plan A, certainly behind halfway. But once we're getting beyond centre, if we're given the chance to accelerate via mark and handball receive, particularly through the corridor, we're taking those opportunities more than I've seen previously.

On the kick mark game I'd love to know how many 40m+ corridor kicks we've tried to pull off. Obviously that is not a major part of ball movement because you rarely have such a good look to try it, but feel like we did it a lot more last year. If we aren't making teams respect space 45m downfield, it lets them sit on our shorter options.

Would love some data on this but as we just get drip fed stuff from CD, doubt it is coming!

 

[Grasshopper17]

On the kick mark game I'd love to know how many 40m+ corridor kicks we've tried to pull off. Obviously that is not a major part of ball movement because you rarely have such a good look to try it, but feel like we did it a lot more last year. If we aren't making teams respect space 45m downfield, it lets them sit on our shorter options.

Would love some data on this but as we just get drip fed stuff from CD, doubt it is coming!

I have a feeling Keidean Coleman was/is our chief exponent of this. Zorko tends to target shorter/quicker options when attempting to access the corridor.

 

[Tom14]

I have a feeling Keidean Coleman was/is our chief exponent of this. Zorko tends to target shorter/quicker options when attempting to access the corridor.

Yes this is why we need Kiddy back in the team when he's ready.

 

[M Malice]

Yes this is why we need Kiddy back in the team when he's ready.

100%, can never have too many elite kicks in your side, particularly when they are no slouch in other areas of the game like Kiddy.