Champion Data's Analysis of Collingwood so far in 2025

[greening22]

I was wondering if anybody on this site listens to Daniel Coyne from Champion Daya on SEN each Wednesday with Gerard Healey? I found it interesting from this week's episode that Collingwood is performing very well on most statistical metrics as you would expect from a team at the top of the table. However there is one metric where we are doing relatively poor & that is in relation to contested possessions. Moreover that result applied across all areas of the ground but especially in the midfied & in defence. Also thesd results have mainly featured in the the games after Round 8. OK. I was pretty surpised by that outcome. I was wondering if anyone can explain it. Maybe it is just a statistical aberration. Anyway it was something that I thought I would bring up in this forum. Goodnight & good luck.

 

[35Daicos]

I was wondering if anybody on this site listens to Daniel Coyne from Champion Daya on SEN each Wednesday with Gerard Healey? I found it interesting from this week's episode that Collingwood is performing very well on most statistical metrics as you would expect from a team at the top of the table. However there is one metric where we are doing relatively poor & that is in relation to contested possessions. Moreover that result applied across all areas of the ground but especially in the midfied & in defence. Also thesd results have mainly featured in the the games after Round 8. OK. I was pretty surpised by that outcome. I was wondering if anyone can explain it. Maybe it is just a statistical aberration. Anyway it was something that I thought I would bring up in this forum. Goodnight & good luck.

The Collingwood bit starts at about the 22 minute mark.

 

[gouki88]

Not too bothered by it - GWS have been the third worst over the last 5 games, and Geelong have also been in the bottom half

 

[Kes1984]

If we're getting the results (and we are), not sure it matters all that much.

 

[adamov13]

Considering Hoyney has been saying our game is pretty bulletproof over the last four or five weekly episodes l wouldn’t be to worried about it.

 

[Scodog10]

My guess is it’s not an important measure for us and perhaps it also has something to do with this comment from Lyon.

They're conservative in a lot of ways … they’re really interesting and very professional in how they manage the game and protect themselves.

Was Lyon’s Pies review a sign that opponents have them figured out?

"I think he was saying he reckons he’s got Collingwood sorted."

www.sen.com.au

In other words we’re more focused on uncontested footy because heavy contest footy breeds turnover.

I’m less concerned with numbers though than what opposition do to take away our system and it was pretty evident on Saturday night what St Kilda did at contest. They let us have the 1 metre perimeter inside and took the outside 3 metres away from us. That’s hard to defend against most teams because it’s much more space, but against us it’s easier because we’re predictable in terms of what we’re going to do out of stoppage, handball.

That’s two matches in a row where our system has been negated so I’m keen to see what tweaks we make to overcome it against lesser sides. I doubt the better sides will put as much work into taking our game away from us and would rather focus on their own games.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

You know who might help that?

Tom Mitchell....

Maybe we should play him

 

[Vankri]

The optimistic view is that it goes back to the ‘seasons of footy’ that seems to be Fly’s mantra this year. We won or broke even in CPs in the first 7 games which were a harder draw than the recent trend that CD are highlighting. We are likely not focused on going as hard at the ball and managing our oldies.

The pessimistic view is that our gameplan is starting to be picked apart, earlier than it was in 23 and we will need some readjustments. Long has come off his phenomenal start to the season a little, and both our contested footy beasts in Jordy and Titch were/are out with injury.

The watch out for me is that earlier in the season it seemed to just be an issue in the middle of the ground and felt like we didn’t mind a la Richmond team at its peak; but vs Melbourne and St Kilda we were also getting done in the F50 and D50 ground balls. Better teams could have taken more advantage.

We still have our ‘gears’ but it does feel like it’s too early in the season to be losing steam.

 

[Jelly Bean]

If we're getting the results (and we are), not sure it matters all that much.

This is the opposite to the philosophy of the likes of McRae. Outcome is secondary to process. Keep working to improve the process, and the outcome will take care of itself. And always look to get better every day.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

The idea that you couldn't fathom that maybe, just maybe, if the team has gone 7-1 over the last 8 games, that they're not really incentivised to change their approach, and that doesn't mean that they're not adaptable when it comes to finals, is absurd.

The only loss in the last 13 games was down to a missed kick after the siren against a top team in the competition.

You can't look for things to criticise in a team that's head and shoulders above the competition right now - Whatever we're not doing well at the moment, the others are doing things that are much more concerning, because they're actually losing games.

 

[Scodog10]

The idea that you couldn't fathom that maybe, just maybe, if the team has gone 7-1 over the last 8 games, that they're not really incentivised to change their approach, and that doesn't mean that they're not adaptable when it comes to finals, is absurd.

The only loss in the last 13 games was down to a missed kick after the siren against a top team in the competition.

You can't look for things to criticise in a team that's head and shoulders above the competition right now - Whatever we're not doing well at the moment, the others are doing things that are much more concerning, because they're actually losing games.

I assume you meant can and that you haven’t listened to the audio? Because the audio was more cautionary to the rest of the competition than to us. Essentially they leant into it as an opportunity for us to improve and only an area to watch if it’s still the trend in 6 weeks time. I don’t personally subscribe to either view so long as we’re winning.

 

[TW Sherrin]

a benefit of the current strategy is that its less taxing on older bodies. not sure you'd want to be playing bash and crash for 23 rounds with the oldest team in history.

no doubt finals will become contested footy as they always do and hopefully our guys are the freshest.

 

[ZEV]

Without being fully aware of the contested possession stat it stands to reason that a highly efficient scoring, low disposal number team would also have a lower amount of contested possessions...

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

It was about losing contested footy , but in isolation that stat doesn't mean much anymore .

Imagine this , every ball up we lose . Our system applies excellent pressure and forces the opposition to kick to a 50/50 contest. 50% of the time we win the footy and are able to chain together uncontested possessions to kick a goal. 50% of the time the opposition win the footy and again are forced to kick to a contest and we start the cycle over until the opposition gets close enough to goal from winning multiple 50/50s to score.

In this scenario Collingwood wins easily and gets smashed in the contested footy stat (as none of our offence is contested and we always lose ball ups ).

Moral of the story is when your system means you are defending in far more contested situations than when youre on offence it's actually a good thing even the stats will say you lost contested footy.

 

[Eric Shin]

I’m just glad we aren’t the finished product just yet. Fly and the coaching panel is aware of our chinks. I fully trust them to iron it out by September!

 

[gouki88]

Without being fully aware of the contested possession stat it stands to reason that a highly efficient scoring, low disposal number team would also have a lower amount of contested possessions...

Pretty much - we're bottom 4 for average disposals over the last 5 matches.

 

[ZEV]

It was about losing contested footy , but in isolation that stat doesn't mean much anymore .

Imagine this , every ball up we lose . Our system applies excellent pressure and forces the opposition to kick to a 50/50 contest. 50% of the time we win the footy and are able to chain together uncontested possessions to kick a goal. 50% of the time the opposition win the footy and again are forced to kick to a contest and we start the cycle over until the opposition gets close enough to goal from winning multiple 50/50s to score.

In this scenario Collingwood wins easily and gets smashed in the contested footy stat (as none of our offence is contested and we always lose ball ups ).

Moral of the story is when your system means you are defending in far more contested situations than when youre on offence it's actually a good thing even the stats will say you lost contested footy.

I wish Champion Data had a stat for % of players holding their structure and not getting sucked into a contest and turning it over straight away

 

[gouki88]

I wish Champion Data had a stat for % of players holding their structure and not getting sucked into a contest and turning it over straight away

The Player Often Uselessly Lost That Eff-ups Regularly. Or, the POULTER

 

[sr36]

This is the opposite to the philosophy of the likes of McRae. Outcome is secondary to process. Keep working to improve the process, and the outcome will take care of itself. And always look to get better every day.

The process is designed to get the outcome. If the process and it's components like tactics and game plan aren't getting the outcome - you change them. You change the process. If they're getting the outcome, you don't change them so easily. So there's vailidity in the if it aint broke don't fix it mentality - even if you are process driven.

 

[sr36]

I wish Champion Data had a stat for % of players holding their structure and not getting sucked into a contest and turning it over straight away

That's really noticable when the ball spills up forward. Our smalls don't charge the footy. I think we'd be one of the worst in the comp at getting first hands on the ball in forward 50 after a marking contest - but I think we're the best in the comp at locking it in and scoring from those situations.

That's one of the conservative things that I think Lyon was talking about - we hang back a bit and position to protect the outlets and provide pressure- as well being in good position to receive when we do win it. Whereas the more attacking move is to charge the footy.

 

[swoop42]

Our defence looks at it's most vulnerable when the opposition can get the ball to ground inside their f25 and they force us to scramble, defend one on one and win back possession. We wouldn't be alone in this obviously but when the contest becomes more man on man rather than system on system the game gets more reduced to the actions of an individual rather than the collective.

As for contested ball it'll become more important during the increased pressure of finals so it's an area you should always be mindful of.

Doesn't mean you necessarily need to win that stat but you want to keep the gap tight and not get blown away.

 

[Harry O]

Quite comfortable we don’t have a contested footy game plan like Vossy

 

[Cyclops]

You know who might help that?

Tom Mitchell....

Maybe we should play him

Its no secret we're nursing two bulls in Mitchell and De Goey back to fitness for the run to finals, the Champion Data geniuses setting themsleves up for a loose ball over the top if we play them and they go well in finals..

Champion Data's modelling has consistently failed to explain our success, with expected score often going against us (especially in the 2023 finals series). After the fact they discovered we were actually quite good.

I think the business model is to pretend they can see the future with stats, and sell their garbage modelling to gamblers. Parasites on the victims of other parasites.

I had a look at the video posted above the other day (SEN stuff shows up in my feed, I'll watch a bit of Bucks sometimes) and to see this idiot statistician/parasite explaining to Gerard Healy how midfield works was hilarious. "Bad kicking is bad football" is a heck of an insight Hoyney, you deserve a Nobel prize. Ditto "you don't need the inside game so much H&A, but come finals the game changes...".

I haven'yt seen one of these garbage "expert" clips with Chamion Data that wasn't a waste of time.

 

[Harry O]

Its no secret we're nursing two bulls in Mitchell and De Goey back to fitness for the run to finals, the Champion Data geniuses setting themsleves up for a loose ball over the top if we play them and they go well in finals..

Champion Data's modelling has consistently failed to explain our success, with expected score often going against us (especially in the 2023 finals series). After the fact they discovered we were actually quite good.

I think the business model is to pretend they can see the future with stats, and sell their garbage modelling to gamblers. Parasites on the victims of other parasites.

I had a look at the video posted above the other day (SEN stuff shows up in my feed, I'll watch a bit of Bucks sometimes) and to see this idiot statistician/parasite explaining to Gerard Healy how midfield works was hilarious. "Bad kicking is bad football" is a heck of an insight Hoyney, you deserve a Nobel prize. Ditto "you don't need the inside game so much H&A, but come finals the game changes...".

I haven'yt seen one of these garbage "expert" clips with Chamion Data that wasn't a waste of time.

But Gerard says Hoyney is the smartest man in football

 

[Bianconeri]

a benefit of the current strategy is that its less taxing on older bodies. not sure you'd want to be playing bash and crash for 23 rounds with the oldest team in history.

no doubt finals will become contested footy as they always do and hopefully our guys are the freshest.

I remember 2014 and 15 where we missed out on finals after looking set to make them in the first half of the year and thinking our overall style was taxing and inefficient.

Much prefer our style now.