2025 Ladder Predictions

[Kane McGoodwin]

Top 9 look locked but be wary of the swans with Gulden, Papley and Mills back.

Could be a sneaky chance.

Swans likely to shape finals, but won't make them imo.

Too far back.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I think Bulldogs go on a run. Gold Coast might hold on but wait till next year.

Giants not sure on them. Not Fremantle

Hawks might go deep depending on draw

Adelaide - honestly who knows. Might just drop to the elimination side of the 8

Giants my tip for ninth

Would say only the top 3 are bankable & likely 2 will be grand finalists.

Crows should make it with easier draw & best percentage.

Honestly could tip who misses as going to be very close.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Giants my tip for ninth

Of course it's possible but they have a relatively benign draw to finish the season (amongst the contenders only geelong have an easier one) and their record against other top 9 times is middle of the pack.

Bulldogs look a million bucks and should never be missing finals with the talent they have yet still have a 1-6 W-L record against the other teams in the top 9 so far. It's the worst record of the nine (see below).

I personally would put several teams at more risk than GWS

Win loss record against other teams in contention:
bulldogs 1-6
adelaide 2-5
hawks, gold coast 3-4
gws 4-4
freo 4-2
lions 5-3
pies 5-2
cats 6-3

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide: 9-5

Wins: Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast, North
Also: Bulldogs (away), Suns (home), Port, Hawthorn (home), Collingwood (home).

Four matches to come against bottom-6 teams. Might start favourites for every match but the Bulldogs. Would shock me if they don't finish top four.

Brisbane: 10-4-1

Wins: Port (home), Sydney (home)
Also: Carlton (away) Bulldogs (home), Suns (away), Collingwood (away), Fremantle (away), Hawthorn (home)

No gimme matches. Could drop from the top four if their form dips and any 5-9 team surges.

Collingwood: 12-2

Wins: West Coast, Richmond, Melbourne
Also: Carlton, Suns (away), Fremantle (home), Brisbane (home), Hawthorn, Adelaide (away)

You would hope for three easy wins. Probably starts favourite for every match except maybe Adelaide. Overwhelmingly likely to take the minor premiership.

Fremantle: 9-5

Wins: St Kilda, West Coast, Carlton (home),
Also: Sydney (away), Hawthorn (home), Collingwood (away), Port Adelaide (away), Brisbane (home), Bulldogs (away)

A mixed bag - three matches you would hope they would win.

Geelong: 10-5

Wins: Richmond twice, St Kilda, North, Port (home), Essendon
Also: GWS (away), Sydney (away)

Maybe booked for top two. Five of their remaining matches are against bottom-6 teams, and one of the remaining three is at home against Port.

Gold Coast: 8-5

Wins: Melbourne, Essendon twice, Richmond
Also: Collingwood (home), Adelaide (away), Brisbane (home), Carlton (away), GWS (home), Port (away)

Four matches against the bottom four, but also three toughies against Collingwood, Brisbane and Adelaide.

GWS: 9-6

Wins: West Coast, Essendon, North, St Kilda
Also: Geelong (home), Sydney (home), Bulldogs (away), Suns (away)

Position much stronger after last weekend's win.

Hawthorn: 9-5

Wins: North Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide (home), Melbourne
Also: Fremantle (away), Carlton, Adelaide (away), Collingwood, Brisbane (away)

And, representing the second half of the alphabet, the Western Bulldogs: 8-6

Wins: North Melbourne, Essendon, Melbourne, West Coast,
Also: Sydney (away), Adelaide (home), GWS (home), Brisbane (away), Fremantle (away)

In terms of gimme wins and additional matches, we are left with

Collingwood - 15-2-0-6 (18)
Geelong - 16-5-0-2 (17)
Adelaide - 13-5-0-5 (15.5)
Brisbane - 12-4-1-6 (15.5)
Hawthorn 13-5-0-5 (15.5)
Fremantle - 12-5-0-6 (15)
Gold Coast - 12-5-0-6 (15)
GWS - 13-6-0-4 (15)
Bulldogs - 12-6-0-5 (14.5)

OK, this is very crude (every match that isn't a gimme win is rated as 50/50 - clearly wrong) but cripes it's close between 3rd-9th.

 

[Grumpyshades]

Collingwood of 2023 or Collingwood of 2025 which side was better at this stage of the season?

who knows ? both sides get a massive leg up so its hard to tell

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Will be a very tight finish for top 4

		W	L	D	%
1.	Collingwood	20	3	0	134.3%
2.	Geelong	17	6	0	133.1%
3.	Gold Coast	17	6	0	127.1%
4.	Western Bulldogs	16	7	0	131.5%
5.	Adelaide	16	7	0	130.8%
6.	Fremantle	16	7	0	113.6%
7.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	114.0%
8.	GWS	15	8	0	110.5%
9.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	108.5%
10.	Sydney	9	14	0	91.0%
11.	St Kilda	9	14	0	89.6%
12.	Essendon	9	14	0	81.2%
13.	Carlton	8	15	0	95.9%
14.	Port Adelaide	8	15	0	84.7%
15.	North Melbourne	6	16	1	81.5%
16.	Melbourne	6	17	0	84.6%
17.	Richmond	3	20	0	65.0%
18.	West Coast	2	21	0	66.9%

 

[crows dude]

Will be a very tight finish for top 4

		W	L	D	%
1.	Collingwood	20	3	0	134.3%
2.	Geelong	17	6	0	133.1%
3.	Gold Coast	17	6	0	127.1%
4.	Western Bulldogs	16	7	0	131.5%
5.	Adelaide	16	7	0	130.8%
6.	Fremantle	16	7	0	113.6%
7.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	114.0%
8.	GWS	15	8	0	110.5%
9.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	108.5%
10.	Sydney	9	14	0	91.0%
11.	St Kilda	9	14	0	89.6%
12.	Essendon	9	14	0	81.2%
13.	Carlton	8	15	0	95.9%
14.	Port Adelaide	8	15	0	84.7%
15.	North Melbourne	6	16	1	81.5%
16.	Melbourne	6	17	0	84.6%
17.	Richmond	3	20	0	65.0%
18.	West Coast	2	21	0	66.9%

How do you have Gold coast that high

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

How do you have Gold coast that high

View attachment 2352106

there's no chance they only win 13 games. The'll get to 15 at least

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

who knows ? both sides get a massive leg up so its hard to tell

Collingwood will win by 1000 points tomorrow.

What.

 

[Mr Meow]

How do you have Gold coast that high

View attachment 2352106

Another home final for Geelong would be great. This would almost be a dream scenario for the Cats.

 

[Hobbes]

Another home final for Geelong would be great. This would almost be a dream scenario for the Cats.

Adelaide have won 100% of their finals against Geelong.

 

[Mr Meow]

Adelaide have won 100% of their finals against Geelong.

Yeah, the '97 game at Football Park would be keeping Ollie Dempsey up at night.

Our recent record at Adelaide Oval is completely irrelevant by contrast.

 

[Pistol Night]

Yeah, the '97 game at Football Park would be keeping Ollie Dempsey up at night.

Our recent record at Adelaide Oval is completely irrelevant by contrast.

Was that the game Colbert got absolutely shafted not being paid a blatant mark?

 

[Hobbes]

Yeah, the '97 game at Football Park would be keeping Ollie Dempsey up at night.

Our recent record at Adelaide Oval is completely irrelevant by contrast.

As a finals predictor, head-to-head results are barely better than tossing a coin.

For the Grand Final, it’s much worse than that. Only 40% of Grand Finals from 2000 onwards have been won by the previous winner of the matchup. There was about a six year run in the 2000s where every GF was won by the loser of their last encounter.

 

[Mr Meow]

As a finals predictor, head-to-head results are barely better than tossing a coin.

For the Grand Final, it’s much worse than that. Only 40% of Grand Finals from 2000 onwards have been won by the previous winner of the matchup. There was about a six year run in the 2000s where every GF was won by the loser of their last encounter.

What does that have to do with Geelong playing well at a certain ground for a few years? We could play the Suns there and it would feel home just as much as playing the Crows or Power. GWS would be the same hosting the Bulldogs in Geelong.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Another home final for Geelong would be great. This would almost be a dream scenario for the Cats.

Not that I agree, but I think to get a home final it needs to be a against a low drawing interstate club along with 2-3 other games in Vic that week. Thats why you got the home final in 2013 but not 2012

 

[Mr Meow]

Not that I agree, but I think to get a home final it needs to be a against a low drawing interstate club along with 2-3 other games in Vic that week. Thats why you got the home final in 2013 but not 2012

?

I replied to a post that predicted a Geelong home final in Adelaide against the Crows. GMHBA isn't on the table.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Cats would be confident against the Crows. Geelong best is better than Adelaide's best.

 

[timokane]

something tells me blues get to 8th they will throw everything now at the remaining games
beat pies next friday they stay alive
like to see suns make it tho
1 spots pies

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Was that the game Colbert got absolutely shafted not being paid a blatant mark?

Yes

 

[Timothy Luncheon]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Collingwood	21	2	0	132.8%
2.	Brisbane Lions	17	5	1	111.8%
3.	Geelong	17	6	0	124.2%
4.	Western Bulldogs	16	7	0	132.2%
5.	GWS	16	7	0	110.0%
6.	Adelaide	15	8	0	124.5%
7.	Hawthorn	15	8	0	110.5%
8.	Gold Coast	14	9	0	115.7%
9.	Fremantle	14	9	0	108.1%
10.	Sydney	10	13	0	94.2%
11.	Port Adelaide	9	14	0	86.7%
12.	Carlton	8	15	0	100.1%
13.	Melbourne	8	15	0	89.3%
14.	Essendon	7	16	0	80.5%
15.	Richmond	7	16	0	77.0%
16.	North Melbourne	6	16	1	83.2%
17.	St Kilda	5	18	0	85.2%
18.	West Coast	1	22	0	66.3%

My latest prediction on Squiggle.

Wow, wouldn't have us winning that many at North sitting in 16th. Would be fantastic if that was the case though

 

[timokane]

do we have hawks in top 4 i think 4th is out of crows or dogs
kind of dont forget gws as well
depends on what they do and the make up for 5-8
i think gws crows are the dark horses
hawks will be found out when the whips are cracking
freo is another one
for my top 3 are pies lions cats in this order

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

No chance

 

[NetworkNerd]

?

I replied to a post that predicted a Geelong home final in Adelaide against the Crows. GMHBA isn't on the table.

Ah the earlier ladder had Cats 2nd, Suns 3rd.. hence the GMHBA comment

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

What's Hawthorn's run home like? I think they're dangerous. Reckon their best is yet to come.