Prediction The Run-Home of Season 2025 - Tracking an acceptable 'pass' mark for NMFC?

[Chadwiko]

Welp, here we are about to begin the run-home to end the 2025 AFL season.

At the time of writing this OP in the lead-up to Round 18, North Melbourne are sitting 16th on the ladder with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 11 losses. Our percentage is 77.3%.

The fixture for the run home looks like this:

• Round 18: Melbourne Demons, MCG
• Round 19: Sydney Swans, SCG
• Round 20: Geelong Cats, Marvel Stadium (home)
• Round 21: St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
• Round 22: GWS Giants, Canberra
• Round 23: Richmond Tigers, Hobart (home*)
• Round 24: Adelaide Crows, Marvel Stadium (home)

Incredibly, North can lift themselves out of the Bottom 4 this week with a couple of specific results;



So my questions to everyone are as follows;

1. What's more important as a metric this season; final ladder position, or total number of wins?
2. What's the bare minimum 'pass' mark for you?

For me, the bare minimum this year needs to be 6 wins. That's the bare minimum and ideally I'd like to see more. But six wins would give us our best season since 2019 (which is a sad thing to write), and may even be enough to lift us out of the bottom four considering the poor form of some other clubs.

 

[DuckYeah]

The minimum wins this year should have been 8 but I am going on a limb and suggest we may only finish with 5 wins for the season which is an epic fail.

We have come up against team half mast all year, Sydney, Dogs rnd 1 and collingwood to name a few. Needed to win at least one of them and put a few teams to the sword. Failed on all accounts and almost dropping that game to wet toast seriously shined a spotlight into the clubs talent and system.

Thus far, season is an epic failure.

Grade F

 

[The Nostradamus]

need to beat melb, richmond and stkilda as a min

anything less is a failure
anything more is a bonus

 

[DuckYeah]

What's more important as a metric this season; final ladder position, or total number of wins?

Its Wins. Nothing else matters. W’s

 

[DuckYeah]

need to beat melb, richmond and stkilda as a min

anything less is a failure
anything more is a bonus

You know melbourne and st kilda will be a very difficult ask.

 

[archereleven]

I voted 7 wins.

The ladder is subjective dependant on the sides around you, wins are fixed.

Melbourne, StK and Richmond achieves this.

 

[Only Forwards]

It depends.

I look at our remaining fixture and I see three games we should be absolutely all over.

Melbourne this weekend.
St Kilda in round 21.
Richmond in round 23.

My honest opinion is that we should be in winnable positions late in all these games preferably in at least two of them where we are in a position to not be beaten with time to go.

I want to see hard at the man hard at the ball in every game.

Having been down for so long we are in a position where the teams around us take us as a chance to get a win and the teams above us take us as no threat at all.

We need to be beating the sides around us. Sides in the bottom 6 we should be looking to beat and sides in the middle 6 we should be looking to take it right up to.

I agree with Nostra when he says:

need to beat melb, richmond and stkilda as a min

anything less is a failure
anything more is a bonus

We have the ability and capability to beat all these sides. Whether we have the desire is another thing.

As a side not I want the bonus, I want us to beat Sydney as well. Because they have not had the greatest of years and it would be the first time in forever that we won back to back games.

You know melbourne and st kilda will be a very difficult ask.

They will but f*** that we need to do some difficult things and raise the bar from the goddamn floor.

 

[DuckYeah]

They will but f*** that we need to do some difficult things and raise the bar from the goddamn floor.

There are no key indicators that mean we will do such a thing. And dont forget you need to factor in the other games Vs geelong, sydney, gws and what psychological impact pantsing will have. Zero confidence we walk away with any wins to be honest. May get licky Vs richmond as they are looking forward to the season finishing, probably like us though.. who knows.

Just lower expectations.

 

[BlueanWhiteKanga]

Finish as high as possible, and screw Richmond with their pick.

We currently have 4 wins and a draw, compared to last years 3 wins in total.

3 more wins (or more), and I'd be over the moon.

I'd be content from here, to have 2 more wins - CAVEAT that we are at least competitive in other games

Anything less, and i'd be dissappointed. You'd like to think we have enough to get passed Richmond again - although you KNOW they will be targetting us. Saints and Melbourne on paper look to be the next achievable victories, but they both have quality and both would feel they are underachieving this year.

 

[Event Horizon]

need to beat melb, richmond and stkilda as a min

anything less is a failure
anything more is a bonus

I have us beating Richmond and one of Melb/Saints. Beating all three would be a bonus

 

[archereleven]

One thing is for sure, any wins will be negated if we have a couple of 100 points losses on the road home...

 

[ChopChopDigDig]

3 more wins and it’s a successful season. I fear only one though, Melbourne and saints were good this week so doubt we’ll get up.

 

[trooroo4life]

Any less then 3 wins to finish is an awful, awful result.

 

[Val Keating]

It’s hard to call it. If we get injuries to a few key players then we’re in trouble, if we have a healthy list and can put the best 22 on the park every week then we should win 7+

 

[Uncle_Leo]

The minimum is 6 wins. Can see us beating Richmond and one of the Saints or Demons, would be great if we beat both

I predicted 5 wins at the start of the year so I'm not surprised by any of this.

I think we get 7-8 next year and that should be the expectation, we are still a long long way off it

 

[Hop_lessly Devoted]

St Kilda of late (yes, like most teams!?) seem to have our measure, would be great to beat them.

 

[Val Keating]

What’s so funny DuckYeah ?

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I said at the start of the year that anything less than an 8-10 win season would be a fail.

I said that it would be a monumental failure if we finished in the bottom 4 again (especially so as we traded our future 1st rounder....so the expectation internally was that we were going to improve considerably).

I stand by those comments.

So, in all reality, it's likely that this season will be a monumental failure.

 

[Twangler]

I said at the start of the year that anything less than an 8-10 win season would be a fail.

I said that it would be a monumental failure if we finished in the bottom 4 again (especially so as we traded our future 1st rounder....so the expectation internally was that we were going to improve considerably).

I stand by those comments.

So, in all reality, it's likely that this season will be a monumental failure.

Beat Dees, Saints and Tigers and we will almost certainly finish outside bottom 4 (could be as soon as this Sunday) and just half a win off your benchmark of 8.
Win another three and I think it’s a pass.

 

[DuckYeah]

What’s so funny DuckYeah ?

The prediction. Made me laugh.

 

[shintemaster]

For me 3 wins is the target from here as a minimum, not sure where it comes from but at the start of the year I wanted to see back to back wins - and I'd still like to see that. So gauntlet is down for the team.

 

[muttley45]

I'm old school, 1 week at a time

 

[Uncle_Leo]

I said at the start of the year that anything less than an 8-10 win season would be a fail.

I said that it would be a monumental failure if we finished in the bottom 4 again (especially so as we traded our future 1st rounder....so the expectation internally was that we were going to improve considerably).

I stand by those comments.

So, in all reality, it's likely that this season will be a monumental failure.

Where were these 8-10 wins coming from realistically?

 

[hilly]

Should beat Richmond. Must get one of Melb/StK.

 

[hilly]

Where were these 8-10 wins coming from realistically?

It's a shame we don't have another 'winnable' game against the Dogs or Hawthorn.