Prediction The Run-Home of Season 2025 - Tracking an acceptable 'pass' mark for NMFC?

[Newbie Real Talk]

What’s so funny DuckYeah ?

He has been hurt badly by North to the extent that he has lost hope. Anyone being positive is funny to him because he feels only negativity.

 

[Uncle_Leo]

St Kilda of late (yes, like most teams!?) seem to have our measure, would be great to beat them.

Last time we beat each team

Adelaide - 2020
Brisbane - 2018
Carlton - 2025
Collingwood - 2019
Essendon - 2016
Fremantle - 2023
Geelong - 2015
Gold Coast - 2024
GWS - 2020
Hawthorn - 2021
Melbourne -2025
Richmond - 2025
St Kilda - 2020
Sydney - 2018
Western Bulldogs - 2019
West Coast - 2025

Still 6 teams we haven't beaten this decade. Saints not one of them

 

[Loose_Cannon]

Three wins gets us a pass. More than that is great. I think we can all see the three most likely, and you never know when it comes to a top team having a late season "off night".

The good news is the things we do well negate the strengths of Melbourne. The better news is it looks like the Tigers have run out of puff. The bad news is the things we do poorly the Saints do well, so that's the real danger game in achieving a solid year. It really puts those close results against Essendon and Port into a "sliding-doors" scenario, where with another couple of late season wins you go from a D+ to a B+ result for 2025.

 

[Only Forwards]

Where were these 8-10 wins coming from realistically?

The three we should (Melb, Saints, Rich) + one vs Sydney or we take a scalp from basically no where.

That is the only way we get to 8+ wins this year.

Every post would need to be a winner.

This game on the weekend is pretty all or nothing TBH. They should play like that too.

 

[Uncle_Leo]

The three we should (Melb, Saints, Rich) + one vs Sydney or we take a scalp from basically no where.

That is the only way we get to 8+ wins this year.

Every post would need to be a winner.

This game on the weekend is pretty all or nothing TBH. They should play like that too.

I see what you are saying (theres no way we beat Sydney up there by the way)

But how looking at the fixture at the start of the year could anyone expect 8-10 wins from this playing group?

Its madness

 

[Newbie Real Talk]

I would be ecstatic if we could finish the season outside the bottom 4.

 

[Val Keating]

The prediction. Made me laugh.

More my expectation than a prediction. This team has no excuses if we have a full squad

 

[Psi-Roos]

I said 6 at the start of the season, if we win 2 of the 3 winnable games we have, that's 6.5. Blind Freddy can see where we are at and that is still another year away.

If you thought we were winning much more this year and are entering the second half of the year angry and deflated, that's on you. Delulu.

A sneaky win against say Sydney would be icing. But let's be honest. The injuries the team is copping now is going to limit what they can realistically achieve.

 

[ferball]

More my expectation than a prediction. This team has no excuses if we have a full squad

It'll be disappointing if we don't but we're kind of used to that.

 

[Val Keating]

It'll be disappointing if we don't but we're kind of used to that.

Yes but enough is enough. Time for them to live up to their potential

 

[Flawed Genius]

almost dropping that game to wet toast seriously shined a spotlight into the clubs talent and system.

Its Wins. Nothing else matters. W’s

Go on then bloke

 

[Ardent Roo]

Realistically we are what, 20 points in total the other direction from a 1 win season, having scraped in against Carlton, WCE and Richmond.

I do know that if my auntie had balls etc etc but realistically, we have scrambled over the line on 3 occasions, twice against oppo we should have handled easily.

I expect us to beat Richmond and that's it, and that is a major fail. I just don't see the improvement despite the modicum of improvement in our % vs 2024.

Aside from player retention which (touch wood) to date is incredibly +ve (maybe by over-paying players...), we're a laughing stock of a club.

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

The pass mark at the start of the season was 7-8 wins - we have work to do.

 

[DuckYeah]

Go on then bloke

Popped out from the cheer squad have ya?

 

[speedy]

6 years into a rebuild, any year we are not at least contending for a finals spot is a fail.

We are still in the bottom 3 for **** sake.

I’m calling it, the year already is an epic fail.

 

[ShinboneSpirit]

Beat Richmond and hopefully one of Melbourne or Saints and it’s a pass - only Richmond and it’s not a pass nor fail imo considering the close games we should have won (Essendon etc) and the fact I don’t see where 8 wins which people are mentioning come from as the minimum for a pass.

 

[speedy]

A Caleb Daniel

5

Caleb Daniel

Age

29

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

omission would be considered forward progress for me.

 

[desie]

Realistically we are what, 20 points in total the other direction from a 1 win season, having scraped in against Carlton, WCE and Richmond.

I do know that if my auntie had balls etc etc but realistically, we have scrambled over the line on 3 occasions, twice against oppo we should have handled easily.

I expect us to beat Richmond and that's it, and that is a major fail. I just don't see the improvement despite the modicum of improvement in our % vs 2024.

Aside from player retention which (touch wood) to date is incredibly +ve (maybe by over-paying players...), we're a laughing stock of a club.

On the flip side we’re also about 20 points the other way from winning another three and a half.

 

[ferball]

On the flip side we’re also about 20 points the other way from winning another three and a half.

No flip sides allowed!~!1!!~

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

have to beat Melbourne / Saints / Richmond

Sydney, GWS, Adelaide can’t let it blow out past 45 points

Geelong if we get smashed it is what it is

6 wins 1 draw and a percentage around 85% would be nice.

Granted this week I’m not confident.

I’d love to see a few more players in the side (Goater, George, Banch, Whitlock, maybe even Trembath?) for a game or two based off of good form.

And yeah would love to see Daniel dropped, or even better return to some semblance of form.

 

[Frank Thring]

This year is a fail, yes I acknowledge a little improvement but it's a fail.

 

[tricknologist]

Six wins. The list is still too young and imbalanced to reasonably expect anything more.

 

[Gasometer]

Depends if Wil Phil plays

Am I doing it right?

 

[Zondor]

Acceptable? What? The season has already been another failure. FWIW at best I think we win one more game. Finish bottom 3. And then we organise to burn effigies of Rawling at Hardon Street until he is shot into the Sun. :stern look

 

[TheKanga]

We can absolutely beat Melbourne this week 50/50 game.

We should beat Richmond down here
And Saints are a possible win as well.

Needs to be 6 wins minimum pass mark and I've been saying that since the summer.