Does the AFL have a blowout problem?

[archereleven]

...but its not administered evenly from team to team. I'm not going into specifics because it will upset our feline friends down the south west of Melbourne.

You're not mistaking equalisation with salary cap rorting are you?

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

Talent pool is simply too thin. Sure, you had bad teams in the past but it was one or 2 at most.

Now, there's multiple huge thumpings every week.

Adding a 19th team will simply make it worse.

Pretty much where it is.

I would like to see the players reduced from 18 to 15 on the ground. That removes a pool 54 to 57 (18/19 teams) players from the competition straight away. Each plays each other once in a 17/18 match competition.

Then I would instigate a new competition in the lead up to the finals where the bottom 2 teams are eliminated each week until we reach our final top 8 and standard finals structure. The comp would be broken up into groups of 4 with teams playing each other in their group but still using a live premiership ladder to determine match ups.

That way we get rid of the top vs bottom match up this time of year and we have more premium matches to watch with evenly placed teams. The live ladder should still mix up the match ups naturally.

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

You're not mistaking equalisation with salary cap rorting are you?

There is a few others enjoying fathers son picks at no penalty to their draft selections. That father son rule that is administered differently from club to club.

 

[VolgaBoatman]

I think the AFL has tried to promote fast ball movement, and high-scoring games, which means that you can't just park the bus, and keep to a low scoring scrap. Some teams are just really good at thrashing other teams if they get on top.

I seem to remember some absolute floggings back in the 80s and 90s where teams we score 180 points, and win by 120, each before defense was prioritized.

 

[archereleven]

There is a few others enjoying fathers son picks at no penalty to their draft selections. That father son rule that is administered differently from club to club.

We currently have a FS playing for Sydney as he would have been lost to the game without their academy lol

BTW, I was taking the piss put of the afl sweeping under the carpet of the salary cap investigation by one of Geelong's own...

 

[Rob]

This is by design. The system rewards failure and encourages teams to either go for a flag or bottom out.

And then perversely it encourages bottom teams to lose players by linking free agent compo to ladder position, and then saying to those clubs "don't recruit free agents yourselves, otherwise we'll downgrade your compo pick for the one you just lost".

It used to be that clubs didn't want to bottom out because they didn't want to take a hit to their bottom line with lower crowds. Nowadays the AFL bankroll clubs so that incentive isn't even there anymore.

 

[Purple Suit]

This is by design. The system rewards failure and encourages teams to either go for a flag or bottom out.

And then perversely it encourages bottom teams to lose players by linking free agent compo to ladder position, and then saying to those clubs "don't recruit free agents yourselves, otherwise we'll downgrade your compo pick for the one you just lost".

It used to be that clubs didn't want to bottom out because they didn't want to take a hit to their bottom line with lower crowds. Nowadays the AFL bankroll clubs so that incentive isn't even there anymore.

The free agent compo system is crazy. Need to have it indexed over 5 seasons, not just one. They also need to let a team who have been bottom 4 for more than 1 year get all the free agents they want without losing compo for their own going. Being competitive should be the goal, not forcing them to get worse.

 

[Elixuh]

It’s getting worse and worse as the talent is spread thinner and there is a lack of proper investment in talent pathways nationwide.

It’s also partly when you get teams - which can be either good or bad for blowouts.

And there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers. Happy ****s and sad sacks. Fat cats and starving dogs in this world. Yeah, there may be more of us today than there's ever been. But the percentages-they stay exactly the same.

Properly funding and increasing talent pathways is where I’d start.

What do people think is going to happen with a 19th team? It’s only going to get worse.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Hasn't ended up great this year but is also just how circumstances have worked out. WC, North and Tigers were always going to be bottom 4 again. Ssints not much better. Throw in Carlton, Essendon, Swans, Demons and Port being worse than expected by a fair way and this is what you get. Hopefully Sydney can bounce back a bit next year. With new coaches and a freshen up maybe Port, Melbourne and Blues can get back in the race too.

 

[longsuffreosupp]

There was a thing called equalization, but then the AFL brought in free agency, in which a top team could keep it's first round pick and pick up a good player without losing it.

Then good father sons could also be acquired without losing a teams first rounder.

 

[Tackle Bag]

The rules have been tweaked to remove defensive tactics from coaches and players.

6-6-6 rule, stand rule, and the heightened deliberate out of bounds have all removed certain defensive tactics from players and coaches arsenal when trying to slow games and limit the damage. The result is bigger blowouts

 

[WillHayward]

Talent pool is simply too thin. Sure, you had bad teams in the past but it was one or 2 at most.

Now, there's multiple huge thumpings every week.

Adding a 19th team will simply make it worse.

AFL simply has to stop wasting money on dumb crap and use it to properly develop talent pathways in all states.

As an example, Queensland, in the last 3 drafts, will have produced around 6 top 10 draft picks.

WA has only had 11 since 2015.

Good for the Qld clubs, as they're academy tied. Shit for the rest of the states.

Hear hear this wise gentleman.

AFL should be concerned about the numbers of draftees coming out of WA.

I expect this situation may reverse given WA is in a boom and having a baby and population boom.
But it's still a concern nonetheless...

They would also be concerned about the situation in metro Melbourne where the number of draftees is starting to collapse.

Luckily, as you say, the situation in Qld has improved a lot.

SA also having a bit of a draftee boom at the moment.

NSW still a wasteland.

 

[demondavey]

There is disparity with the draw right now. Cats with an easy ride to the flag Equalisation has failed.

Losing interest in the game I used to watch weekly

Finals always sorts out the soft contenders coming in. Given you have played some hard games I’d expect Collingwood to hit the QF pretty hardened and ready. Geelong smashing easier sides might not auger well come a QF.

 

[deck]

That's a fair shout. Confess I didn't think that hard about it before I pulled the numbers.

For balance, here you go - a percentage based chart, with a corresponding drop in the number of close (ie one goal or less) games this year.

We're gonna need a massive amount of close ones in the final three rounds for the percentage of games decided by six points or less to reach the level of the last two years.

View attachment 2385699

Using a 5 year period isn't a real reflection. This year as a whole sits currently at 37 for highest win/loss margin. It does look like being one of the highest if not the highest for 72 plus point margins. But it sits well below in the 36-71 point margins. It's also pretty high up for the 6-11 margins.

Most seasons with high % 1-23 point margin games were 100 years ago. I think people were a bit spoiled by 2024 and 2023 having a abnormally high number of games in 1-5 point margin.

 

[VolgaBoatman]

So a couple of other points:

• Heard this from one of the sports shows - perhaps Sports Today on SEN ? - but AFLPA has reduced the length of pre-season meaning young players aren't getting skills and fitness training like perhaps they used to.
• I think clubs need to be able to and perhaps should be encouraged to trade some of their depth players during the season
• There are some pretty decent and hardnosed players in the lower leagues - e.g. Claremont had 3 players who had won sandover medals in the midfield on the weekend, strong, can win clearances, and would help some of the lesser teams. Not sure why AFL clubs don't look at those
• I think perhaps the AFL should be able to focus on more mature players, and have less "young" players - it means there needs to be a development league perhaps.

 

[EagleMan87]

While it doesn't account for everything, this list shows that the average margins were higher in practically every year since 1979 than in the 20s:

AFL Tables - Scores and Margins

We did also have the lowest overall margin for a round ever this year, so swings and roundabouts.

 

[Golumless]

This is by design. The system rewards failure and encourages teams to either go for a flag or bottom out.

And then perversely it encourages bottom teams to lose players by linking free agent compo to ladder position, and then saying to those clubs "don't recruit free agents yourselves, otherwise we'll downgrade your compo pick for the one you just lost".

It used to be that clubs didn't want to bottom out because they didn't want to take a hit to their bottom line with lower crowds. Nowadays the AFL bankroll clubs so that incentive isn't even there anymore.

Problem is that doesn't explain Sydney, Carlton, Melbourne and Port. Usually what would happen is only one or two solid lists would shit the bed with most of them (on top of lists like Adelaide, Freo, Dogs and some old timers that have begun to regress etc) being the what seperates the league at the top 3-4.

This year had four teams shit the bed in a big way. Plus a routine nothing side in Essendon deciding to rent out a floor at Royal Melbourne hospital.

Usually the 3-4 shit teams who are tanking are covered by 4-5 who genuinely believe they can make finals (and probably should be).

 

[kreglze]

The rules have been tweaked to remove defensive tactics from coaches and players.

6-6-6 rule, stand rule, and the heightened deliberate out of bounds have all removed certain defensive tactics from players and coaches arsenal when trying to slow games and limit the damage. The result is bigger blowouts

Yeah this plays a massive part IMO. Harder for bad teams to clog up the game and keep the deficit lower. Means good teams can run through them easier.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

This year has been particularly bad for regular floggings every week.
The rich clubs have a monopoly on the league.

Essendon and West Coast?

It definitely is harder for smaller clubs to build and keep a list, and generally maybe two years slower to develop as well, but it doesn't mean clubs that should not spend much time near the bottom don't.

 

[projectv]

When the one game of the entire round that is between two evenly matches sides and is currently a ten goal smashing - really not a great look.

 

[BigVic]

The game is unwatchable. Not a good look for the game with so many blowouts. If we have a Cats vs Suns QF, we will see a blowout for sure

Disparity in the AFL is a problem and the AFL needs to fix this. Fans like me are turning off.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I think every side this year except the Crows has been belted by 60+. And maybe Cats, don't remember.

 

[JackFlash]

There is disparity with the draw right now. Cats with an easy ride to the flag Equalisation has failed.

Losing interest in the game I used to watch weekly

I'm always interested to know what easy ride the Cats have had this year? They played 6 of the top 8 sides currently in the first 9 rounds of 2025? They play their 6th interstate game next week, who should they play?

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Wouldn't put Sydney in that group. They might end up with 11 wins which is about right for a team finishing 10th. The bottom 4 this year is a legit bottom 4 and are actually miles off Stkilda who are 14th. Essendon because of their injuries have an excuse but it makes for shocking football.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I think every side this year except the Crows has been belted by 60+. And maybe Cats, don't remember.

Dogs, Cats and Crows. Dogs and Crows have been ultra consistent every week whether they have won or lost hence why there percentages are so high. No smashing when they lose and more smashing of other teams than others. All 3 play an ultra attacking game style due to the talent on their lists.