Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[DangerousD]

Coona Blues & WalshistheGOAT I'd like to run these thoughts by you. I'm becoming pretty pissed at the AFL continually destroying the draft, with some nut job rule changes, but I do agree the draft needs fixing.

1. Father/Son rule remains the same. It should be enshrined in stone and never touched again. That said, if a F/S candidate is bid on in the 1st Round the club MUST use a 1st Round Pick to acquire that candidate. It can't be a mish-mash of 2nd, 3rd & 4th round selections to acquire a 1st Round candidate. It may require a combo of 1st Round and 2nd Round Selection to provide enough points, but so be it. All clubs should be limited to 1 Father/Son selection per round in any one Draft.
2. NGA needs adjustment. Players such as Liam Henry & Ugle-Hagan should not be eligible to quality as NGA prospects. They were indigenous kids who had played footy as kids and were always going to play AFL. Should be reserved for Sudanese, Irish, Fijian, etc. Feel free to expand if you wish.
3. Compo picks for Restricted Free Agents. This adds a genuine impediment to to clubs trying to rebuild. TDK's move results in a 1st Round compo pick to us, but pushes clubs back another notch in the pecking order, yet the club acquiring TDK still retains their 1st Round pick. A better alternative might be that the club acquiring TDK is required to surrender their 1st Round Pick to acquire that player. Clubs can still haggle for a better deal (2 1st Rounders if they can match deal or player & picks etc).
4. Compo picks for Unrestricted Free Agents should be abolished. Full Stop. The End. Clubs have had fair use and access to these players for 10 years. The trade of Unrestricted Free Agents should be exactly that.....unrestricted. No doubt this will wind some people up on here, but the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
5. Northern Academies. Clubs from the Northern States should be entitled to one player from each round based on a Picks/Points scenario. Where more than one candidate in bid on each round would result in the Northern State Club having forfeit on any other bids in that round. Gold Coast now has a very strong list and should now have all extra entitlements withdrawn including list size, cap size and academy territory size.
6. Too many clubs. The current amount of clubs makes it more or less impossible for a club with a poor list to rebuild in a reasonable amount of time. I think 14 would be more sensible amount. I'd strip one out of NSW, QLD, 2 from VIC and forget about Tassie. I think the genuine talent is just being spread too thin and it's affecting the quality of the footy we're seeing. Just my thoughts.

Conclusion.
These suggestions won't solve every issue with the draft and nor will I be ever be able to satisfy everyone's wishes, but it's a starting point. I see the current setup with compo picks, NGA picks, academy picks and the amount of clubs like bloatware on a computer. It slows everything down. This way everyone gets something but it does come at some cost. As for anyone else reading this, feel free to add your own thoughts.

As with many others, there’s merit in lots of ideas, in relation to yours about the father sons and the northern academies, if you make the payment fair, what limit the amount of top picks a club can take? If the system makes you pay a premium a team like GC would need to trade significantly to access multiple talents anyway.

In relation to NGA, indigenous representation in the AFL has dropped significantly, i see no world where the AFL would remove them from any pathways that might help increase draftees. However i dont think NGA players should be eligible in the 1st round but as i said before, if the payment structure is sound, then you wont see clubs rotting the system.

Free agent compo, yep id be wound up by that and id say it would make clubs be stuck to the bottom for longer, id assume that clubs who lose players to free agency are clubs down the bottom or dripping and lose them to clubs near the top, whilst i think the compo at the moment is a mess, i think it has a place, id like band 1 to be after the 1st round.

There’s a point that not many or no one seems to bring up when talking about the father sons, free agent compo or NGA players getting drafted is, the clubs who are down the bottom of the ladder lose access to the best players in the draft, they in reality are forced to downgrade their picks for no return.

Use the Saints as an example, WC lose Allan and get pick 2, forcing every club above them to downgrade their picks, Annabelle gets bid on in the top 5, even though Brisbane pay a price, every other club downgrades their picks, GC have 2 kids rated in the top 5, they pay but again, every club below downgrades their picks.

So what id like to see and im not entirely sure how it would work, that that in the first round, where a club needs to jump you to acquire a player, then the extra points or picks needed to pay for that player are divvied up between the other clubs.

 

[DangerousD]

Because it is a weak draft and he probably would have gone in the 20s last year. This year we have a ruck forward that didn't do much in the Champs and is tipped to go 2. Last year the AA FF who dominated in the VFL games he played when in the 30s

Shannahan? Should have gone higher

 

[Sector 7G]

Shannahan? Should have gone higher

Yep - Passed up by pretty much every side. I could be more up beat about gaining picks if there were obvious replacements in this draft. No doubt there will be some good players but it will be good luck finding them. This year the No1 tall averages less than a goal a game.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yep - Passed up by pretty much every side. I could be more up beat about gaining picks if there were obvious replacements in this draft. No doubt there will be some good players but it will be good luck finding them. This year the No1 tall averages less than a goal a game.

I was a very big advocate for Shanahan, no idea how he slipped as far as he did. Especially past the Tigs who selected about 6 blokes before him.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Yep - Passed up by pretty much every side. I could be more up beat about gaining picks if there were obvious replacements in this draft. No doubt there will be some good players but it will be good luck finding them. This year the No1 tall averages less than a goal a game.

That's why next year's draft is our friend. It might not help us next season but most tall players don't make that much of a difference in their first year, anyway.

On that note, who's that reasonably high rated tall player that had his season ruined by injury? I can't remember his name but pending his injury not being chronic, maybe worth a later pick? There's more than one way to skin a cat but you still have to prepare for it. I get the impression that this recruiting team is not subtle enough for that.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

On that note, who's that reasonably high rated tall player that had his season ruined by injury?

Burmeister?

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Burmeister?

No, this player was someone who is only draft eligible this year. I think Cal Twomey mentioned him as 'one to watch' in his early draft rankings but not in the list itself. There were a few other articles but I lost all the links. I just researched him because I knew this year wouldn't be a good year for tall players.

 

[Coona Blues]

No, this player was someone who is only draft eligible this year. I think Cal Twomey mentioned him as 'one to watch' in his early draft rankings but not in the list itself. There were a few other articles but I lost all the links. I just researched him because I knew this year wouldn't be a good year for tall players.

The only one who goes close to this would be Archie Ludowyke.

 

[ferrisb]

Can we get Byrne with a later pick

To be sure...

 

[The Return of the Paf]

The only one who goes close to this would be Archie Ludowyke.

I don't think so, injured earlier in the season and forgotten (well.. out of draft calculations, possibly). Forget my whims until further evidence comes to light.

 

[Blue__Balls]

As with many others, there’s merit in lots of ideas, in relation to yours about the father sons and the northern academies, if you make the payment fair, what limit the amount of top picks a club can take? If the system makes you pay a premium a team like GC would need to trade significantly to access multiple talents anyway.

In relation to NGA, indigenous representation in the AFL has dropped significantly, i see no world where the AFL would remove them from any pathways that might help increase draftees. However i dont think NGA players should be eligible in the 1st round but as i said before, if the payment structure is sound, then you wont see clubs rotting the system.

Free agent compo, yep id be wound up by that and id say it would make clubs be stuck to the bottom for longer, id assume that clubs who lose players to free agency are clubs down the bottom or dripping and lose them to clubs near the top, whilst i think the compo at the moment is a mess, i think it has a place, id like band 1 to be after the 1st round.

There’s a point that not many or no one seems to bring up when talking about the father sons, free agent compo or NGA players getting drafted is, the clubs who are down the bottom of the ladder lose access to the best players in the draft, they in reality are forced to downgrade their picks for no return.

Use the Saints as an example, WC lose Allan and get pick 2, forcing every club above them to downgrade their picks, Annabelle gets bid on in the top 5, even though Brisbane pay a price, every other club downgrades their picks, GC have 2 kids rated in the top 5, they pay but again, every club below downgrades their picks.

So what id like to see and im not entirely sure how it would work, that that in the first round, where a club needs to jump you to acquire a player, then the extra points or picks needed to pay for that player are divvied up between the other clubs.

That last paragraph is an interesting little line of thinking. Wonder if the points could be deferred, as the utility would probably be pretty limited and finnicky in the live draft.

Hypothetically - GC need to match a bid at Pick 2, using pick 6. That effectively pushes pick 2 to 3, 3 to 4, 4 to 5, and 5 to 6. Given the draft index already exists, I wonder if the clubs who own those picks could essentially bank the lost points, and be afforded a couple of options to cash the points in the next year.

Using this year's draft as an example, Richmond would bank 519 points for dropping from 2 and 3 to 3 and 4. Next year, they could elect to add those points to one of their existing picks, moving it up the board, or gain a draft pick equal to those points (519pts would equal Pick 28). Essendon would get the same treatment, but only to the tune of 303pts for moving from 4 and 5 to 5 and 6.

I dunno, maybe that just adds new layers of shenanigans, where other clubs the following year get impacted as well. But I think it's a general concept worth considering - finding a way to compensate the clubs whose picks ait between the bid and the pick used to match it.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

I don't think so, injured earlier in the season and forgotten (well.. out of draft calculations, possibly). Forget my whims until further evidence comes to light.

Mystery solved - it's Liam Hetherton, Harry Dean's teammate.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

I wonder if the clubs who own those picks could essentially bank the lost points, and be afforded a couple of options to cash the points in the next year.

Not sure about that because the points only have meaning for matching bids and with being pushed back the cost of any later bids goes down - IE it all stays relative. EG For us to match at 7 with 9 is the same as if we are pushed back and match at 10 with 12.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Mystery solved - it's Liam Hetherton, Harry Dean's teammate.

Check out this video from this search, liam hetherton afl
https://share.google/KHwg71P2MSnPISS7H

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Check out this video from this search, liam hetherton afl
https://share.google/KHwg71P2MSnPISS7H

Looks like a player! Moves well.

 

[Coona Blues]

Mystery solved - it's Liam Hetherton, Harry Dean's teammate.

Good get. Forgotten man. Stress related back injury after being one of the highest rated key forwards pre season. Has still been invited to Combine, so not completely forgotten.

Very likely to come at a significant discount in the draft. We have the advantage of not being in a hurry to have a key forward ready to go. A three year apprenticeship in the twos would not be a huge drama if he is slow burn building up.

This does strike me as the draft to target another long term key forward prospect. Cody Walker will eat up our draft capital next year requiring virtually two first rounders to match a bid. The 2027 draft will be the Tassie draft, with access to top prospects likely very limited.

With our defections we are likely to have more draft capital than expected this year. (If Charlie leaves, significantly more)
While we need a small forward and a couple of “connectors”, if we can find enough decent picks, a key forward would be ideal.

Love Aidan Schubert as a prospect, but looks top 10, along with CDT who should be top five. Archie Ludowyke another possible first rounder despite slipping a bit. I like Cody Curtin, but has a knock on mobility when the modern game demands talls who are athletic to gain separation. Louis Emmett and Tairon Ah Mu are both forward/ruck prospects also strongly in the mix.

For a “shallow” draft, there are plenty of prospects. Mitch Marsh at third tall height is arguably the stand out forward prospect in the draft. When we consider the impact Georgiades and Morris, we could do worse if the picks fall in place. We have Harry McKay supported by Brodie Kemp, Hudson O’Keeffe and Ashton Moir if CC departs and maybe some mooted trades.

The “Charlie situation” certainly suggests we may be in the market for a young forward with the backline probably covered for the future.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Looks like a player! Moves well.

Looks a natural forward, body-use, timing/leading, clean hands, contested marking, goal kicking & sense…

Good size 197cm maybe more growth, nice speed & athleticism…

 

[ctwenty1]

To be sure...

this response is deservedly getting no laughs

 

[ferrisb]

this response is deservedly getting no laughs

You throw enough jokes at the wall and some of them are bound to stick... And stay there till they go mouldy...

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Good get. Forgotten man. Stress related back injury after being one of the highest rated key forwards pre season. Has still been invited to Combine, so not completely forgotten.

Very likely to come at a significant discount in the draft. We have the advantage of not being in a hurry to have a key forward ready to go. A three year apprenticeship in the twos would not be a huge drama if he is slow burn building up.

This does strike me as the draft to target another long term key forward prospect. Cody Walker will eat up our draft capital next year requiring virtually two first rounders to match a bid. The 2027 draft will be the Tassie draft, with access to top prospects likely very limited.

With our defections we are likely to have more draft capital than expected this year. (If Charlie leaves, significantly more)
While we need a small forward and a couple of “connectors”, if we can find enough decent picks, a key forward would be ideal.

Love Aidan Schubert as a prospect, but looks top 10, along with CDT who should be top five. Archie Ludowyke another possible first rounder despite slipping a bit. I like Cody Curtin, but has a knock on mobility when the modern game demands talls who are athletic to gain separation. Louis Emmett and Tairon Ah Mu are both forward/ruck prospects also strongly in the mix.

For a “shallow” draft, there are plenty of prospects. Mitch Marsh at third tall height is arguably the stand out forward prospect in the draft. When we consider the impact Georgiades and Morris, we could do worse if the picks fall in place. We have Harry McKay supported by Brodie Kemp, Hudson O’Keeffe and Ashton Moir if CC departs and maybe some mooted trades.

The “Charlie situation” certainly suggests we may be in the market for a young forward with the backline probably covered for the future.

Yes, there's a few there but it would be a balance between what we'd be willing to spend (in terms of what position we'd take them in the draft), and ability/potential. If some of the above have potential but aren't exactly setting the world on fire, maybe no current form to speak of (due to injury) is good form for someone who will most likely be taken later in the draft.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Finally a paf special I can get behind!

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Finally a paf special I can get behind!

Pfft! Remember, we drafted Kris Massie; I identified Adam Goodes (and Sydney got a bargain).

 

[Ninja Worrier]

If we get a throw at the stumps around a pick 30ish wouldn't be upset taking a punt on Lattrelle Pickett

 

[Christou2Kouta]

If we get a throw at the stumps around a pick 30ish wouldn't be upset taking a punt on Lattrelle Pickett

I saw the name Sumner-Pickett and immediately wondered if he was some sort of Liam and Jarrod love child.
If he was, he’d be very quick but very injury prone.

 

[DangerousD]

I love checking the stats to narrow down on a few players, so for the draft watchers around, why is a player like Charlie McKinnon who has the most goals in the CTL at 53 from 15, not being spoken about as a draft prospect?

Likewise Jack Pickett from the Falcons who has 30 goals from 8 games And Arki Barker who has 26 goals from 10 games?

Dovaston is second on the list with 34 goals from 14 games but he has been talked about a bit.

The past two years I’ve seen Morris and Shannahan get picked up late and come out and be good players straight away, especially Morris, so just wondering why some of these guys who have a clear better output than there peers, are getting overlooked.