2025 Finals MVP

[JHF1870]

Thought I'd revisit my scoring system in preparation for 2026 and develop a more robust system without overanalysing games for this finals series. I've readjusted some of the stats and made some adjustments.

• Rucks less dominant
• Refined penalties for clangers and turnovers
• gave a slight buff for defenders to build an even scoring system.
• Metres gained metric
• better balance with stacked statistics
• Added in pressure acts for a small value
• higher value for Centre clearances
• Added in other impact valued stats
• Added in contested one one one wins (The Josh Battle
  24

  Josh Battle

  Age

  27

  Ht

  193cm

  Wt

  93kg

  Pos.

  Def

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  12.9

  3star

  K

  9.0

  3star

  HB

  3.9

  3star

  M

  5.0

  5star

  T

  2.4

  4star

  MG

  196.8

  3star

  D

  11.0

  3star

  K

  7.3

  3star

  HB

  3.8

  3star

  M

  4.0

  4star

  T

  1.8

  3star

  MG

  142.8

  3star

  D

  10.8

  3star

  K

  6.2

  3star

  HB

  4.6

  4star

  M

  3.4

  4star

  T

  2.0

  4star

  MG

  175.6

  3star

  rule)

I'm going to track this and see how it goes. Before anyone complains, oh why isn't Nick higher. He had a lot of turnovers which impacted his score.

Condition for mine is winner must make the Grand Final and votes averaged.

Who do you think is going to win the MVP?

 

[Hot Dogma]

Is that you Mrs. Thilthorpe?

 

[Pancakes]

Thilthorpe was one of the worst players on the ground on Thursday night.
Shat his pants from fear a few times, and he was soft as butter almost all night.

Out of the 46 players who have played so far, he wouldn't be in the top 30.

 

[doppleganger]

Thilthorpe was one of the worst players on the ground on Thursday night.
Shat his pants from fear a few times, and he was soft as butter almost all night.

Out of the 46 players who have played so far, he wouldn't be in the top 30.

Yep.

Only 3 score involvements, and 1 mark inside 50 and was the least impactful of the 4 players who went through the ruck.

A nonsense to rate him as the best player of the finals so far.

 

[JHF1870]

Yep.

Only 3 score involvements, and 1 mark inside 50 and was the least impactful of the 4 players who went through the ruck.

A nonsense to rate him as the best player of the finals so far.

Thats the difference between subjective analysis and stat driven.

This is an all round discussion meaning people can float their best players and MVP.

Im tweaking my system from the regular season and made some changes and probably more before next season.this is good analysis. I made significamt changes to defenders.

CD rated Thillthorpe high too.He kicked 3 goals, several contested marks of which i also buffed.he also got 10 contested disposals. Perhaps too much weight. We shall see

 

[PhatBoy]

Thats the difference between subjective analysis and stat driven.

This is an all round discussion meaning people can float their best players and MVP.

Im tweaking my system from the regular season and made some changes and probably more before next season.this is good analysis. I made significamt changes to defenders.

CD rated Thillthorpe high too.He kicked 3 goals, several contested marks of which i also buffed.he also got 10 contested disposals. Perhaps too much weight. We shall see

He kicked 2 goals

That he could be rated higher than Harris Andrews under any metric is interesting. Andrews was absolutely huge last night

 

[Chism]

Holmes will win it and the Cats will win the flag i reckon.

 

[PhatBoy]

Holmes will win it and the Cats will win the flag i reckon.

If the latter happens, the former is a near certainty.

Dempsey is a smoky for the medal though. Thought he was next best onfield last night. Has a very very uncanny knack for being unattended in the goal square or kicking goals out of mid-air

 

[Xtreme]

Thought I'd revisit my scoring system in preparation for 2026 and develop a more robust system without overanalysing games for this finals series. I've readjusted some of the stats and made some adjustments.

• Rucks less dominant
• Refined penalties for clangers and turnovers
• gave a slight buff for defenders to build an even scoring system.
• Metres gained metric
• better balance with stacked statistics
• Added in pressure acts for a small value
• higher value for Centre clearances
• Added in other impact valued stats
• Added in contested one one one wins (The Josh Battle rule)

I'm going to track this and see how it goes. Before anyone complains, oh why isn't Nick higher. He had a lot of turnovers which impacted his score.

Condition for mine is winner must make the Grand Final and votes averaged.

Who do you think is going to win the MVP?

View attachment 2418058

Rayner the club house leader, multiple goals and trolling the Geelong crowd

Get around him

 

[Lingsface]

Newcombe is a finals beast.

 

[Fadge]

Any rankings system that has Thilthorpe the best player on the ground on Thursday night is simply broken.

 

[doppleganger]

Thats the difference between subjective analysis and stat driven.

This is an all round discussion meaning people can float their best players and MVP.

Im tweaking my system from the regular season and made some changes and probably more before next season.this is good analysis. I made significamt changes to defenders.

CD rated Thillthorpe high too.He kicked 3 goals, several contested marks of which i also buffed.he also got 10 contested disposals. Perhaps too much weight. We shall see

He didn't kick 3 goals, he only kicked 2.

He only had 3 score involvements, and 1 mark inside 50. That is a pretty ordinary return from the AA key forward, explains why Adelaide only kicked 8 and were well beaten.

Pies absolutely happy pre-game if you told them Thilthorpe would only have 1 mark inside 50 and have only 3 score involvements.

The problem with "stat driven" approaches, is that most algorithms don't link to actual team results, just rate how "busy" players were and to create ratings they just weight and reward or "buff" different stats more heavily.

 

[Fadge]

Thilthorpe was one of the worst players on the ground on Thursday night.
Shat his pants from fear a few times, and he was soft as butter almost all night.

Out of the 46 players who have played so far, he wouldn't be in the top 30.

Outside the top 30 is a tad harsh.

But I reckon the best 10 players on the ground on Thursday night were Collingwood players, with Pedlar the only chance of cracking into the bottom few in that list.

Moore
De Goey
Daicos
Quaynor
Maynard
Elliott
Long
J. Daicos
Crisp
Pendlebury
Throw in Cameron as well.

That's 11.

 

[JHF1870]

He didn't kick 3 goals, he only kicked 2.

He only had 3 score involvements, and 1 mark inside 50. That is a pretty ordinary return from the AA key forward, explains why Adelaide only kicked 8 and were well beaten.

Pies absolutely happy pre-game if you told them Thilthorpe would only have 1 mark inside 50 and have only 3 score involvements.

The problem with "stat driven" approaches, is that most algorithms don't link to actual team results, just rate how "busy" players were and to create ratings they just weight and reward or "buff" different stats more heavily.

I've written about this in all my threads. I simply can't watch every game and wanted to build a system that could do so. I also specified that it was my opinion based on the figures I used. I do need to adjust some, but for me this is preparation for next season to deliver a balanced system for all positions. Not saying it's perfect but prior to this season I was incredibly biased like many people here for and against players and I wanted to eliminate that bias. It's why I love Max Holmes so much now.

Here were RT's stats other than the basic metrics that have been pointed out.

I probably need to adjust CP slightly, no points for general clearances it's just there. Contested marks I've increased from regular season due to rarity. He did have 4 turnovers too.


Let's be realistic. I could pick a player I like and set up the metrics to suit that player and they'd rank best player week in week out.

 

[JHF1870]

Would you say Daicos had the better game?

 

[Fadge]

Would you say Daicos had the better game?

View attachment 2418671

Yep.

Because most of us don't assess from a stats sheet.

ANYONE who watched Thursday's game would conclude Daicos' night was STREETS ahead of Thilthorpe's.

 

[Coasters7]

Throwing my vote in for umpire 22

 

[SSSSSS]

Impey.

 

[Mr Meow]

Any rankings system that has Thilthorpe the best player on the ground on Thursday night is simply broken.

Across the season they look about right, but there are just too many baffling results on a game by game basis to truly take them seriously. There's about 5 WTF results from the 44 players rated in each game.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Newcombe came 3rd in the Gary Ayres medal last year and we only played 2 finals.

Should have 10 votes again today, which would make it 28 of a possible 30 votes across 3 career finals.

 

[JHF1870]

Any rankings system that has Thilthorpe the best player on the ground on Thursday night is simply broken.

CD ranked him very highly also. Perhaps he didn't meet the lofty expectations. His stats were better than Daicos'

Noone has the precise answer on what constitutes the best, or most impactful player, it's largely subjective, or stat driven. It's also difficult when you have a bunch of players all sharing the load vs one player who is doing much more as an individual. At what point do you start to analyze that?

Today's game saw GWS dominate individually up the top, but Newcombe was the shining star for Hawthorn while the rest of Hawks bound tightly as a whole team.

I thought about at least for my Brownlow voting implementing a system whereby there's a curved scale for margin. You win by 10 goals, then the multiplier for the losing side is 0.

Lose by 1 goal or less it could be .95
Lose by 3 goals or less it could be .9

.....

 

[JHF1870]

Newcombe came 3rd in the Gary Ayres medal last year and we only played 2 finals.

Should have 10 votes again today, which would make it 28 of a possible 30 votes across 3 career finals.

My score had him like .2 behind Tom Greene, but realistically if I'm voting I'm giving it to the winning team.

 

[JHF1870]

Thought I'd revisit my scoring system in preparation for 2026 and develop a more robust system without overanalysing games for this finals series. I've readjusted some of the stats and made some adjustments.

• Rucks less dominant
• Refined penalties for clangers and turnovers
• gave a slight buff for defenders to build an even scoring system.
• Metres gained metric
• better balance with stacked statistics
• Added in pressure acts for a small value
• higher value for Centre clearances
• Added in other impact valued stats
• Added in contested one one one wins (The Josh Battle rule)

I'm going to track this and see how it goes. Before anyone complains, oh why isn't Nick higher. He had a lot of turnovers which impacted his score.

Condition for mine is winner must make the Grand Final and votes averaged.

Who do you think is going to win the MVP?

View attachment 2418058

To keep people 'Happy'

For a 321 for winning side only in spirit of the MVP being for the best team.

Geelong Vs Brisbane

3. Max Holmes
2. Tom Atkins
1. Mark Blicavs

Adelaide Vs Collingwood
3. Jordan De Goey
2. Jamie Elliot
1. Ned Long

Hawthorn Vs GWS
3. Jai Newcombe
2. Jarman Impey
1. James Worpel

 

[Lingsface]

Newcombe has never had under 30 disposals in a finals game.

 

[Fadge]

It's also difficult when you have a bunch of players all sharing the load vs one player who is doing much more as an individual. At what point do you start to analyze that?

I'm the first to acknowledge when one player on the losing team is carrying the load, and indeed they can be the best player on the ground despite their team losing comfortably.

Thursday night was NOT one of those games.

Asked anyone who actually watched the game the same question and you'll get the same answer.

The fact you're using stats to question whether Daicos was better than Thilthorpe says it all....