List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[PJays]

I was playing with some data.

This is grouping coaches votes into 4 year blocks by player age, ie NAS is 22, his votes are in the 19-22 category 20-23, 21-24 & 22-25.

It's an interesting representation.

View attachment 2420051

Pies strong across all age groups
Brisbane primed at 25-29
Bulldogs almost the perfect spread, Adelaide the same but a couple of years younger
Gold Coast and Freo are primed
Hawks good spread, but older than you think
GWS a hole in the middle
Melbourne - yuck
Saints - big big hole in the middle
Port - similar to GCS and Freo - what went wrong? No one over the age of 26.
Carl - Collingwood without the youngsters and elders
North - the youngsters not yet impacting (Sheez 25, McKerch 26)
Essendon, there's a base
Rich and WCE, a long way to go

Thank you- that's one of the best posts I've ever seen on Big Footy.

Based on that, Freo and Gold Coast are primed to contend for flags over the next 2 years. Not many older guys earning votes, but plenty of good younger players coming into their primes.

St Kilda's gap is influenced by poor drafting and development, trading away draft picks, and bad luck.

2015- Traded 1st pick for Carlisle who's long gone. That draft crop is 27/28 y/o right now.

2017 - Clark and Coffield picks 7 and 8. 26 y/os, gone or not very impactful.

2018- Max King pick 4. 25 y/o Injured all year.

2019- Traded 1st pick for Brad Hill who's now 32.

Plus, St Kilda has ex-players earning votes for other teams - Battle had 33. Long surprisingly only 8.

 

[phantom13]

Ok, take this anyway you like, and considering nobody knows the true figures you can call total bs if you like, I am.only passing on what has been relayed to me by two sources via PM. One I don't know their source but have seen his info over the years and it hasn't ever been hyperbole.
The other is more interesting. Haven't heard from this poster or seen him post in maybe 5 years. At that time his sources at the club were impeccable, don't know his situation now.
Both are singing from the same hymn-book.
1. TDK - averages out to 1.4 mill a season. Has contigencies if he is injured or form falls off a cliff. So like King this year, salary is substantially cut if KPI's aren't met.
2. JSOS offer was the same as the Bulldogs but a year longer 650 x 4
3. I asked about Aleer's offer and any Windy news but I got no reply.

As I said PM'S, I don't know their sources so don't know the accuracy. I am only passing on what was relayed by two independent sources.
So when someone says 1.8 for TDK and 800k for TDK I will quote 1.4, and 650k. After all just as possible as the other unsourced figures.
I suppose we will know are least JSOS soon enough when compo is given for him.

I mean... We do this alot.

TDK is now $1.4 not $1.7 as reported BUT were not short changing Windy.

JSOS is $650 not $800 BUT we didnt low ball Battle.

Its all speculation and ive noted the bullshit media stuff but we cant ALWAYS be on the right side of this shit.

 

[Mat Mann]

Butler has a 29, 30 and 33 goal season. Ryan has a 30 and a 26. GAs are .57 to .73.

The big discrepancies in stats are contested marks and marks for Ryan and tackles for Butler.

The ONLY argument in Ryans favour is durability and even that is debatable (Butler is a year older for 26 extra games)

I'd argue that Butler is a dumb footballer,

but also, how much would a more dangerous fwd in Ryan help Higgins?

not sure Ryan is the answer, but Dan certainly isn't, it's a stopgap hopefully until Collard is ready

 

[The Boar]

In what world is a losing Marshall for a draft pick to use on Flanders smart business .

Geelong first round pick is of no use .

Unless Geelong are willing pay overs or we get capital to get a gun mid then Marshall can see out his contract .

You're forgetting TDK in this.
Out: Marshall.
In: TDK and Pick 17 (possibly becomes Flanders).

That is a win.

 

[Joffaboy]

People will disagree but i still maintain we ****ed up the Battle thing by not knowing the player and his values, if wed openly told Josh he is welcome to explore his options as we will but were all gonna be honest about it that whole scenario likely plays out differently (noting the outcome may have been the same but it would have been way less messy).

I reckon this is a really valid point. We did not connect properly with his needs. Now people will say eff him, he is a sook etc, but the fact that Bassat came out and basically said we stuffed up and changed the game day experience for player families this season, would indicate the club understood they stuffed it up with Battle and his family.
Sad we lost Battle, however from the disappointment it seems the club learnt a valuable lesson and has attempted to correct the problem.

 

[Mat Mann]

I reckon this is a really valid point. We did not connect properly with his needs. Now people will say eff him, he is a sook etc, but the fact that Bassat came out and basically said we stuffed up and changed the game day experience for player families this season, would indicate the club understood they stuffed it up with Battle and his family.
Sad we lost Battle, however from the disappointment it seems the club learnt a valuable lesson and has attempted to correct the problem.

I was reading an article and he said that his partner wanted to actually watch the football, not have to deal with the kids, so the game day creche etc were appealing, yes we may say that's soft, but anyone who's taken young kids to a footy game knows they lose interest after about 10m. Being able to dump them at a creche that the club has set up for the game would absolutely be appealing.

 

[phantom13]

I'd argue that Butler is a dumb footballer,

but also, how much would a more dangerous fwd in Ryan help Higgins?

not sure Ryan is the answer, but Dan certainly isn't, it's a stopgap hopefully until Collard is ready

Bit harsh but fair enough.

I guess my broader point is that were getting into the territory or everyone were looking at is a ****ing boneafide star and everyone they might flip out is a shit kicker.

From all reporting we actually didn’t.

Battle told Ross he was staying and then decided to up and leave.

Whatever happened it wasn’t the financial offer we put forth.

"from all reporting" TDK is on $1.7m a year.

At some point you have to accept that its either right or likely some mid point. Alot of posting in here is all about how were never paying as much as reported or we didnt low ball everyone who might leave.

 

[AFaiL]

I was reading an article and he said that his partner wanted to actually watch the football, not have to deal with the kids, so the game day creche etc were appealing, yes we may say that's soft, but anyone who's taken young kids to a footy game knows they lose interest after about 10m. Being able to dump them at a creche that the club has set up for the game would absolutely be appealing.

I still laugh at this being the reason he bailed. Fancy wanting to hang around with the WAGs instead of your kids. That is Hawthorn tho, its the mentality when you look at the gen z core and the coach who thinks he is still 21. Good luck to them

 

[Joffaboy]

I mean... We do this alot.

TDK is now $1.4 not $1.7 as reported BUT were not short changing Windy.

JSOS is $650 not $800 BUT we didnt low ball Battle.

Its all speculation and ive noted the bullshit media stuff but we cant ALWAYS be on the right side of this shit.

Agree totally. As I said just passing on what was relayed to me.
I don't know what the real figures are, either does anyone else. Figures can be used for whatever confirmation bias a poster wants to project.
Also your scenarios are not mutually exclusive.
We might be paying TDK 1.4 AND short-changed windy or we are actually paying JSOS 800k and we didn't lowball Battle or a whole range of different combo's.
The club is not wholly right or wholly wrong in these things. It makes good and bad decisions, anybody who can't see this is obviously not looking objectively.

 

[Mat Mann]

Bit harsh but fair enough.

I guess my broader point is that were getting into the territory or everyone were looking at is a ****ing boneafide star and everyone they might flip out is a shit kicker.

"from all reporting" TDK is on $1.7m a year.

At some point you have to accept that its either right or likely some mid point. Alot of posting in here is all about how were never paying as much as reported or we didnt low ball everyone who might leave.

harsh, yes, but imo, true. also noting that I never made it to AFL level and Dan did

I never thought it was 1.7x8, just far too of an easy headline to write and sell clicks.

Heavily front-ended, like nearly every free agent contract is to discourage the current club from trying to match.

 

[Joffaboy]

I still laugh at this being the reason he bailed. Fancy wanting to hang around with the WAGs instead of your kids. That is Hawthorn tho, its the mentality when you look at the gen z core and the coach who thinks he is still 21. Good luck to them

Well they have got an AA backman and we don't, so I know who is laughing.

 

[phantom13]

I was reading an article and he said that his partner wanted to actually watch the football, not have to deal with the kids, so the game day creche etc were appealing, yes we may say that's soft, but anyone who's taken young kids to a footy game knows they lose interest after about 10m. Being able to dump them at a creche that the club has set up for the game would absolutely be appealing.

I said it at the time and copped alot of shit for it but if this is the way clubs are going then we better jump onboard.

I still laugh at this being the reason he bailed. Fancy wanting to hang around with the WAGs instead of your kids. That is Hawthorn tho, its the mentality when you look at the gen z core and the coach who thinks he is still 21. Good luck to them

Weve got no idea how much this played into it but to counter you.

Imagine being in a healthy relationship and considering your partner and family unit in a workplace decision.

Some need to move past this idea that Josh is a cuck, i would do and have done the discussion with my wife (and now family) about most large life decisions.

harsh, yes, but imo, true. also noting that I never made it to AFL level and Dan did

I never thought it was 1.7x8, just far too of an easy headline to write and sell clicks.

Heavily front-ended, like nearly every free agent contract is to discourage the current club from trying to match.

Thats fine, but we continue to do the "Nah were not overpaying" at the same time as saying "Nah were not underpaying".

Theres just no way were ALWAYS on the right side of this stuff.

 

[GYoung]

Ok, take this anyway you like, and considering nobody knows the true figures you can call total bs if you like, I am.only passing on what has been relayed to me by two sources via PM. One I don't know their source but have seen his info over the years and it hasn't ever been hyperbole.
The other is more interesting. Haven't heard from this poster or seen him post in maybe 5 years. At that time his sources at the club were impeccable, don't know his situation now.
Both are singing from the same hymn-book.
1. TDK - averages out to 1.4 mill a season. Has contigencies if he is injured or form falls off a cliff. So like King this year, salary is substantially cut if KPI's aren't met.
2. JSOS offer was the same as the Bulldogs but a year longer 650 x 4
3. I asked about Aleer's offer and any Windy news but I got no reply.

As I said PM'S, I don't know their sources so don't know the accuracy. I am only passing on what was relayed by two independent sources.
So when someone says 1.8 for TDK and 800k for TDK I will quote 1.4, and 650k. After all just as possible as the other unsourced figures.
I suppose we will know are least JSOS soon enough when compo is given for him.

Thank you for sharing this. Really appreciate you sharing your inside information. Please keep it coming.

 

[Joffaboy]

Thank you for sharing this. Really appreciate you sharing your inside information. Please keep it coming.

When Carlton get a R1 compo for JSOS and show my figures hopelessly inaccurate, you may change your tune

 

[The Punter]

Thank you- that's one of the best posts I've ever seen on Big Footy.

Based on that, Freo and Gold Coast are primed to contend for flags over the next 2 years. Not many older guys earning votes, but plenty of good younger players coming into their primes.

St Kilda's gap is influenced by poor drafting and development, trading away draft picks, and bad luck.

2015- Traded 1st pick for Carlisle who's long gone. That draft crop is 27/28 y/o right now.

2017 - Clark and Coffield picks 7 and 8. 26 y/os, gone or not very impactful.

2018- Max King pick 4. 25 y/o Injured all year.

2019- Traded 1st pick for Brad Hill who's now 32.

I have heard intel that if we had kept that 1st rounder we traded away for Carlisle we would have drafted... Jade Gresham.

And the budgie in every pet shop at the time was talking about how we needed a tall defender.

Coffield hurts. 2019 very well ventilated in these parts. Six years on we're about to lose the second of those five players.

 

[Mat Mann]

I still laugh at this being the reason he bailed. Fancy wanting to hang around with the WAGs instead of your kids. That is Hawthorn tho, its the mentality when you look at the gen z core and the coach who thinks he is still 21. Good luck to them

it's not the reason, but a reason

I know the Weddle's (Josh), we walked our kids to school together, I see his parents every week, they live literally 8 doors up, his mum bakes and takes them to the club every week, The family feel so involved in not only Josh's life but also those around him. It makes a difference

Us supporters see the cash and expect an outcome from that, but we don't see the hard work that families put into their partners/children's success.

Like any workplace, a happy one is far more likely to produce results.

 

[stavro#4]

For those of us who aren't amazed by highlight packages but instead focus on hard data, Ryan doesn't appear to offer a lot.

Over the past 4 years.

Ryan- 56 games, 58 goals, 13 coaches votes.

Butler- 65 games, 72 goals, 12 coaches votes

Obviously they're different players with different strengths. And obviously Butler's had injuries the last couple years.

But this raw comparison suggest Ryan hasn't been setting the world on fire.

People around here talk like Butler's completely expendable, while Ryan's this exciting signing.

The last 4 years the eagles have finished:

18,16,18,17

Coaches votes tend to reflect the impact on a game and the eagles have been pummeled regularly over that time, whilst Butler has been in a side that has routinely won 10 games and played finals in 2023.

The 4 years prior to that they finished:

9,5,5,2 and he was selected as an All Australian in 2020.

It would be more interesting to see his impact in a better side.

 

[stavro#4]

Armoooo i see you are claiming Wilkie is off to the dogs.

Care to share.

 

[phantom13]

Armoooo i see you are claiming Wilkie is off to the dogs.

Care to share.

This would be an unmitigated disaster.

 

[PJays]

Coaches votes tend to reflect the impact on a game and the eagles have been pummeled regularly over that time, whilst Butler has been in a side that has routinely won 10 games and played finals in 2023.

In 2022, 2024 and 2025 Ryan finished 10th, 9th and 7th amongst Eagles players in coaches votes. (Ignoring 2023- he was injured). (Keeping in mind forwards generally poll better than defenders).

In those years he finished 10th, no placing and 8th in the Eagles best and fairest.

So Ryan hasn't been one of the best players, in the worst team of the past 30 years.

 

[Joffaboy]

I said it at the time and copped alot of shit for it but if this is the way clubs are going then we better jump onboard.

Weve got no idea how much this played into it but to counter you.

Imagine being in a healthy relationship and considering your partner and family unit in a workplace decision.

Some need to move past this idea that Josh is a cuck, i would do and have done the discussion with my wife (and now family) about most large life decisions.

Thats fine, but we continue to do the "Nah were not overpaying" at the same time as saying "Nah were not underpaying".

Theres just no way were ALWAYS on the right side of this stuff.

I don't like all this agreeing with you

Your point on workplace is incredibly important.
I think we are rightly around with the clubs response to the needs of our first nations players. A diverse group of indigenous young men from different country and different cultures.
I get the feeling the club was embarrassed they had covered the indigenous needs so well but inadvertently neglected the needs of other players. Swallowed their pride and reacted to losing Battle by improving family game day experience.
Battle is no cuck, his issue wasn't handled well. It got out we were shopping him and that started the decline in relationship.
Again since then, I can't remember a leak from the List Management since. ( that's why I take any mooted salaries of players, high or low, with a grain of salt).

Last point. It is a bit juvenile to think the club is always right, the Battle case for a start proves that point wrong. It is also juvenile to see something negative about the club and to automatically jump to worst case conclusions and disparage the club.
A bit of balance is required.

 

[stavro#4]

In 2022, 2024 and 2025 Ryan finished 10th, 9th and 7th amongst Eagles players in coaches votes. (Ignoring 2023- he was injured)

In those years he finished 10th, no placing and 8th in the Eagles best and fairest.

So Ryan hasn't been one of the best players, in the worst team of the past 30 years.

You know when you are getting pumped, the ball isn’t exactly getting to the end of the ground Ryan would be playing in.

Which is why I said it would be interesting to see his impact in a good side, of which the previous 4 years the eagles went 9,5,5,2 and he won an AA blazer.

Remember, Ryan is a forward.

 

[Falchoon]

This would be an unmitigated disaster.

Not if Ed Richards came back the other way,

But neither are likely to happen.

 

[stavro#4]

Not if Ed Richards came back the other way,

But neither are likely to happen.

I really like Freijah.

 

[Joffaboy]

This would be an unmitigated disaster.

We must be getting Darcy and Sanders. Lol.
Unless it is stupidly overs the club wont trade him.