List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[PJays]

As high as our offers to Naz and TDK are, paying Windhager $850k + for 4 years would be peak inflation.

You realise Windhager got almost as many coaches votes as TDK this year, and he's 4 years younger?

 

[gringo2011]

We do seem to be doing that a bit TBH.

I cant see how Aleer, JSOS, Wilkie, Tauru all play in the same backline (thats before you add in one of Howard and Camma).

Flanders, Windy, C-Mac on top of our midfield depth.

Ryan, Collard, Butler, Higgins (alot less so than the above given Collard is still developing and Butler might be done).

Roma/TDK

Aleer/JSOS and Flanders/C-Mac are one or the other for me (noting Flanders/C-Mac can become both if Windy goes) but we do seem to be targeting alot of double ups, do wonder what happens to some of the kids who fall further back in the order if it happens, Heath bailed, others would have to consider it.

The only thing that makes sense is that we are chasing a bigger fish that we need picks for because it looks more like we are doing as much damage as repair as we go. Selling off Marshall and Windhager will piss off a lot of fans. Both are favourite sons. It would want to be to get an absolute elite asset and play deep finals next year or otherwise we are saving a drowning kitten and then shooting a puppy.

I think that JSOs and Aleer get first crack and Tauru probably develops at Sandy for a while. He had a couple of promising games but late in the year he was a liability at times. Especially surrounded by youth in the back 6.

 

[CursingFijian]

For those of us who aren't amazed by highlight packages but instead focus on hard data, Ryan doesn't appear to offer a lot.

Over the past 4 years.

Ryan- 56 games, 58 goals, 13 coaches votes.

Butler- 65 games, 72 goals, 12 coaches votes

Obviously they're different players with different strengths. And obviously Butler's had injuries the last couple years.

But this raw comparison suggest Ryan hasn't been setting the world on fire.

People around here talk like Butler's completely expendable, while Ryan's this exciting signing.

This is the issue with basing everything off stats though you can cherry pick to suit your narrative.

Liam Ryan went from 0% centre bounce attendances in 2023 to 12% in 2024 and then 21% in 2025. So his role within the team changed recently due to circumstances. As a result Liam's clearance numbers obliterate Butler, but that's an unfair comparison.

Across their careers Butler (29 yo 2017 debut 151 games) has played 26 more games than Ryan (28yo 2018 debut 125 games). But across their careers Liam has more total scoring shots, more goal assists, more score involvements and an equitable number of score launches.

And that's while playing more midfield minutes.

Stats wise over their careers Ryan has more one percenters, spends more time on ground, kicks the ball more, has a higher kicking efficiency, has more contested possessions and a higher contested possession rate, 3 times more centre clearances, more stoppage clearances, 150% more marks, , 200% more intercept marks, 400% more contested marks. 3 times more marks on the lead than Butler, and one and a half more marks inside 50.

And I 100% didn't know about these facts until I looked them up just now, I just had an opinion based on what I see. Back to my assertion, Liam will impact the scoreboard for us next year. I'm prepared to go out on a limb and suggest that he will average 9 points a game for us, and will win at least one match for us off his own boot.

 

[kyrgios]

The only thing that makes sense is that we are chasing a bigger fish that we need picks for because it looks more like we are doing as much damage as repair as we go. Selling off Marshall and Windhager will piss off a lot of fans. Both are favourite sons. It would want to be to get an absolute elite asset and play deep finals next year or otherwise we are saving a drowning kitten and then shooting a puppy.

I think that JSOs and Aleer get first crack and Tauru probably develops at Sandy for a while. He had a couple of promising games but late in the year he was a liability at times. Especially surrounded by youth in the back 6.

Sandy? ;-)

excited to have Leek at the club. Will thrive under Lyon.

 

[Falchoon]

Unless Wilkie asks for a trade. You can still rightly hold him to his contract, but the odds arein the favour of the player getting their own way from history.

He'll get a Captain's sweetener added to his contract anyway, but the club is 100% within their rights to say no if a trade request came up.

History says clubs were afraid of the repercussions of saying no, but there are enough mechanisms in place for the players now.

Signing long term, forward loaded contracts offers security to both parties.

He's zero chance of going unless the trade was so favourable that the Dog's wouldn't do it anyway.

 

[stavro#4]

You realise Windhager got almost as many coaches votes as TDK this year, and he's 4 years younger?

You know TDK got all his coaches votes in the first half of the year this season playing sole ruck and had more than Marshall got all season.

 

[PJays]

This is the issue with basing everything off stats though you can cherry pick to suit your narrative.

Liam Ryan went from 0% centre bounce attendances in 2023 to 12% in 2024 and then 21% in 2025. So his role within the team changed recently due to circumstances. As a result Liam's clearance numbers obliterate Butler, but that's an unfair comparison.

Across their careers Butler (29 yo 2017 debut 151 games) has played 26 more games than Ryan (28yo 2018 debut 125 games). But across their careers Liam has more total scoring shots, more goal assists, more score involvements and an equitable number of score launches.

And that's while playing more midfield minutes.

Stats wise over their careers Ryan has more one percenters, spends more time on ground, kicks the ball more, has a higher kicking efficiency, has more contested possessions and a higher contested possession rate, 3 times more centre clearances, more stoppage clearances, 150% more marks, , 200% more intercept marks, 400% more contested marks. 3 times more marks on the lead than Butler, and one and a half more marks inside 50.

And I 100% didn't know about these facts until I looked them up just now, I just had an opinion based on what I see. Back to my assertion, Liam will impact the scoreboard for us next year. I'm prepared to go out on a limb and suggest that he will average 9 points a game for us, and will win at least one match for us off his own boot.

Great post

Where are you getting all these stats from? I know footywire has a good player comparison option.

 

[gringo2011]

The only move in the offing that I am not a fan of at all is Flanders. Understand the draft isn't strong and is a mess but don't see anything but a B grader with no elite attributes in Flanders, and a type we have a lot of already in MaCrae, Steele, Garcia, Boxhall etc. Would much rather keep Windy if there is a choice of the two ( I know we are trying to keep Windy.)

Love the overall strategy of using free agency and the flyers on Ryan and even Aleer as they will cost nothing from a draft capital perspective. The AFL stuffed up free agency so much when it was introduced that people don't know what to make of us at the moment. It is supposed to be bad teams paying above market to get in players, star players taking unders to go to contenders is the system NOT working.

Getting in free agents and cheap options whilst not compromising drafting in the 1st round is a GREAT strategy. Flanders is meh.

He was absolutely elite off HB 12 months ago. He has a better bank of form than most of the guys we are chasing. If it allows you to rotate him and Nas on ball it is a great move. Sinclair also finishing up in a couple of years. He also has midfield potential and can play forward freeing up Hall. He was actually drafted as a medium forward with midfield potential.

Sam Flanders Draft Profile

DRAFT ANALYSIS: "An explosive mid-forward with clean hands and a high X-factor, Flanders just has to build his consistency throughout matches to take his game to the next level."

central.rookieme.com

Sam Flanders and Jack Sinclair AFL Stats Comparison

Sam Flanders and Jack Sinclair AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Leap of Faith]

As high as our offers to Naz and TDK are, paying Windhager $850k + for 4 years would be peak inflation.

Yes but.....what are we paying Aleer and JSOS? That is the question

 

[Armoooo]

Armoooo i see you are claiming Wilkie is off to the dogs.

Care to share.

I've been on here for 10 years+ and have never claimed to have any sort of an ITK source before.

Make of that what you will.

 

[gringo2011]

Sandy? ;-)

excited to have Leek at the club. Will thrive under Lyon.

SandKilda

 

[PJays]

You know TDK got all his coaches votes in the first half of the year this season playing sole ruck and had more than Marshall got all season.

I know I ask you this regularly but.... what's your point?

TDK barely got any votes in the back half of the year.

Is his throat injury resolved and he's back to 100%? We better hope so.... and we'd better hope that was the reason he wasn't performing.

 

[sauce_head]

For those of us who aren't amazed by highlight packages but instead focus on hard data, Ryan doesn't appear to offer a lot.

Over the past 4 years.

Ryan- 56 games, 58 goals, 13 coaches votes.

Butler- 65 games, 72 goals, 12 coaches votes

Obviously they're different players with different strengths. And obviously Butler's had injuries the last couple years.

But this raw comparison suggest Ryan hasn't been setting the world on fire.

People around here talk like Butler's completely expendable, while Ryan's this exciting signing.

No that is just how you perceive the discussion, always as negative as humanly possible and seeking to dominate the narrative. People around here talk like he is an upgrade in most areas aside from pressure.

 

[stavro#4]

I've been on here for 10 years+ and have never claimed to have any sort of an ITK source before.

Make of that what you will.

No ones doubting you. But simultaneously you just posted that Wilkie and his agent would take this to court and go through a messy divorce because he won’t be offered more money.

 

[Mat Mann]

Armoooo i see you are claiming Wilkie is off to the dogs.

Care to share.

Imagine you had a contract that says you get paid $100k per year and if you take 5 or less sick days, you will an additional $10k reward.

You work hard, don't miss a day of work and are a top achiever.

Somebody who is objectively a lower performer at another business comes across for $150k a year.

You ask your employer if you could get a pay rise that you feel represents the value that you generate for the company. They then tell the entire business that you are fairly paid, and beside they generously gave you an extra 10k earlier in the year.

You probably wouldn't be too happy.

The salary demands could probably have been met, but SOS and Ross have let their egos make a mountain out of this molehill. We have basically tried to pull the wool over his eyes by twisting some figures in an attempt to confuse a literally accountant. Things are beyond the point of no return.

Cal doesn't feel that he owes the club any loyalty and the dogs don't feel that they need to make things easier for the saints as Cals management have indicated that they're prepared for a messy divorce. The longer it goes on, the worse things get for the saints, the contract "levarage" is more of a noose in this situation.

Dogs will be getting Wilkie for a fair salary for a trade price that will turn a lot of heads unless the AFL are willing to mediate.

The AFL do get involved in a lot of deals behind the scenes. The last thing they want is any of their list rules being tested in court.

I suspect St Kilda will demand two 1sts, Dogs will offer a 2nd. AFL will want both clubs to come away with something that is salvageable to the casual fans.

Will end up being something like a 1st, a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th for Cal and a future second. Daylight robbery to anyone with a clue, but they'll tell the nuffies that St Kilda got 4 young players for him to help the rebuild, blah, blah, blah.

If I were a Dogs fan I'd be very excited right now... you pricks

 

[SG34]

Sandy? ;-)

excited to have Leek at the club. Will thrive under Lyon.

was gonna say, I expect to see Hammer in a Sandy guernsey next year if he is only a backman, but there is NO Sandy any more. will take some getting used to.

 

[stavro#4]

I know I ask you this regularly but.... what's your point?

TDK barely got any votes in the back half of the year.

Is his throat injury resolved and he's back to 100%? We better hope so.... and we'd better hope that was the reason he wasn't performing.

He was barely playing sole ruck in the second half. Pittonet played.

That’s the point.

So as a sole ruck - the eye test was met that he was dominant.

 

[stavro#4]

The middle part makes no sense.

 

[stavro#4]

 

[Fehring]

Ignore the stupid comparison Morris made and just enjoy listening to Hird & Bartel spit facts

I'm not sure if anyone has brought this up, but that 2013 offseason was not a top up. We brought in two relatively young players who we thought would be very good for a decade (Bruce and Longer), and Delaney was always a role player. Savage came as the steak knives in the McEvoy deal - we got Savage and picks 18 and 19-ish. It wasn't the top ups which were the problem that year, it was that our plan to hit the draft hard with three top 20 picks only yielded Billings, Acres and Dunstan.

 

[Mat Mann]

The middle part makes no sense.

All I can say is that if we screw this up, there's going to be hell to pay

 

[gringo2011]

Still think it would be a disaster personally.

Possibly the club getting JSOS as a contingency. I rate Wilkie the best one on one defender in footy but JSOS plays a similar style of defence.

Anyway it feels like post season where the PTSD kicks in and we weather another disaster storm. There is a comfort to it all.

 

[PJays]

He was barely playing sole ruck in the second half. Pittonet played.

Pittonet played 7 games for the year.

Only 6 games alongside De Koning.

And if things go to plan, TDK will be sharing ruck with Marshall- so if TDK struggles at things other than ruck, St Kilda's plan seems like it's in trouble.

 

[Murraj1966]

So when are we getting Rory Sloane

9

Rory Sloane

Age

35

Ht

183cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

11.9

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

6.6

5star

CL

5.7

5star

D

15.3

4star

K

7.3

3star

HB

8.0

4star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.3

4star

CL

4.2

5star

D

22.2

5star

K

8.6

4star

HB

13.6

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

6.0

5star

CL

4.6

5star

?

 

[stavro#4]

All I can say is that if we screw this up, there's going to be hell to pay

Any contract is signed off by the AFL. So it’s not like we are in breach in anyway.

You can’t mediate a trade if the Saints aren’t willing to trade.

If the saints are willing to trade it won’t be for unders as implied in the post.