List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 3

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
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[PJays]

Jackson is the exception, if TDK is Jackson then fair enough, i dont think he is.

You've said this a few times

But isn't Marshall the Jackson in our scenario?

Or perhaps both of them,

I'm suggesting Marshall floats into the forward line and splits time between forward and ruck (And TDK could rest there occasionally but I'm thinking more Marshall).

It may not work. But it's worth trying. It worked well in 2020-2022.

And my overarching considerations are.

1. We need 2 solid rucks for injury cover. if we're trying to win a flag imminently- which is what this off-season is about (whether you agree with the strategy or not, that's what they're doing). If that means we have a good ruck playing VFL, so be it.

2 you don't let good players walk for minimal return so I'd only consider it if the return is good

 

[thekizzler]

No idea, if its the same number as this year was on average then given teams arent playing two rucks now the argument remains. If its one less it only strengthens the argument.

The only way a rule change entices teams to play two rucks is if there are more ruck contests. The last touch rule in any capacity wont do that.

You can argue 5 on the bench adds the desire for a ruck and i would disagree but thats pure speculation both ways.

I understand what you are saying. I like Marshall - think he gets beaten too much in the ruck but is excellent around the ground. I do think you are underrating him, but that's just a minor difference in opinion.

This is just my theory to go alongside your theory, but what if the Saints want to use Marshall similarly to Luke Jackson?

Now I know they have some different characteristics, but I could see Marshall filling a variety of important roles - not as the no.1 ruckman.

• The damage Marshall could do to opposition second string ruckman would be significant.
• He can obviously play forward, centre-half forward
• Be the marking target on the wing so King can stay deeper forward
• Even swing back late in games as an extra body/interceptor

This is all speculation about his possible uses - but it's the same speculating that there is no worth to him as a second ruck IMO.

To be honest, he played a pretty similar role as what is stated above when Ryder was no.1 ruck to decent effect as well.

I think it's definitely worth a go for 12 months if he wants to stay. I'm also happy to get a first rounder and move on if he wants to leave though.

 

[FQFjt]

Sigh, 2020 was a genuine chance for us to pinch a flag considering the weird season. That ryder injury ended our hopes

Didn't Carlisle also miss the finals because his wife was having a baby? And his replacement, Brown, retired mid year to get out of the hub?

We actually got close to Richmond in the second final, and they went on to win the flag.

 

[FQFjt]

How many less ruck contests are you anticipating per game?

Apparently the SANFL went from the league with the most stoppages per game to the least after the rule was introduced.

 

[thekizzler]

He's 197cm

Thank you.

That will teach me for using Draft Guru as a source.

My dick is 3cm big so I can tell you that the height difference is still negligible

 

[Kildonan]

You'd seriously take a pick in the 40s for him? I don't get that at all.

Yeh we need some points for Fincher and IMO Roma is playing twos all year if he stays.

If Roma wants to go then i think we honor that. Obviously id prefer Geelongs first, if that is on the table id do it in a heartbeat. If Geelong is adamant their first wont go (which i doubt) then id take their second knowing full well its unders but for a VFL player and to get our pretty good academy kid and look after Roma yep, personally i would. Then use $100k from Romas salary to keep Windy.

If we manage to get all those targets, keep our natural first, get Fincher and only lose Roma when we already have TDK, Dodson and Keeler anyway id say thats a huge ****ing win.

If we manage to get their first and make it Flanders even better.

I see absolutely no upside in keeping a 600-800k player in the twos.

Others will disagree and thats fine, i seriously doubt the clubs would demand more than Geelongs first, that would be silly (noting if we can and do get more even better).

You understand that let's say pick #41 gets us 220 points plus the 20% bonus nets us a total of 264 points which wont even cover pick #38 and our later picks wont add any points to help pay for Fincher. I believe we will need a pick that remains in the mid thirties at least

Link to Draft Value Points

 

[thekizzler]

Apparently the SANFL went from the league with the most stoppages per game to the least after the rule was introduced.

Interesting.

What's the numbers difference?

Also, what impact did it have on AFLW?

 

[gringo2011]

How do we lose Wilkie?

He wants out and cracks it. If he wants out clubs rarely force it even though there are examples to the contrary. They believe it's still in play and while they do it means that there is a chance. Apparently they want an answer from him soon to plan for others to chase. It is still more common to let players walk that hold them agains their will.

 

[Dard Ball Get]

He wants out and cracks it. If he wants out clubs rarely force it even though there are examples to the contrary. They believe it's still in play and while they do it means that there is a chance. Apparently they want an answer from him soon to plan for others to chase. It is still more common to let players walk that hold them agains their will.

Agree but can’t see any of SOS, Ross and/or Bass letting it happen, especially with the new found aggressive approach which we saw a glimpse of when Ross was discussing Nas.

 

[gringo2011]

Its not a compelling argument to me when you have 4500 caveats on why its was super succesful except when it wasnt. Im not taking a shot at you here i just think youre on your line of it works and i dont agree.

You cant but you can see what clubs have done for the past 20 years. Personally i dont think one extra on the bench will mean another ruckman especially when the other rule is going to mean less ruck contests.

It's been a stuff up for other clubs trying it so far. It might work but it hasn't for a lot of very well run clubs.Unless Marshall can play as a key position player with occasional around the ground rucking it is less likely to work. To me he's a giant utility when not in the ruck. I guess Jason Blake would be best case scenario.

 

[BrutThough]

Gabelich just said Wilkie is still in play for the Dogs. Willing to go above the $1.5 million already offered. It could be that we lose Wilkie and the two end up fortunate additions.

'Wilkie, we arent trading you'

There, it's done.

 

[gringo2011]

Agree but can’t see any of SOS, Ross and/or Bass letting it happen, especially with the new found aggressive approach which we saw a glimpse of when Ross was discussing Nas.

Hopefully. I think we love our players more than they do. Wouldn't think SOS would have any issue with cashing in his chips if he's after someone else and it fits his strategy.

 

[gringo2011]

'Wilkie, we arent trading you'

There, it's done.

Should get on the front foot then and say it.

 

[PJays]

Apparently the SANFL went from the league with the most stoppages per game to the least after the rule was introduced.

I'd be interested seeing the numbers because this could still be a small variance

Eg Previously
SANFL 115
VFL 110
WAFL 105 Etc

Now:
SANFL 103.

I made those numbers up. Just pointing out that "first-to-last" doesn't necessarily tell us much.

 

[gringo2011]

Yeh as much im advocating for letting Roma walk if he wants, Wilkie will cost Darcy and Ed Richards plus access to Bonts progenany.

I thought you wanted everyone to run free in the fields for years of service rendered?

 

[SG34]

His contract is a technicality?

Ahhh no, its definitely not.

I obviously think if he asks to go he will and i generally think thats the rule but we can hold him to his contract if we want, theres no way out of that. The AFL cant intervene here because there is nothing to intervene with.

I dont agree at all. I dont really see why teams would suddenly want to play another ruck when there will be less ruck contests (even without that rule i doubt it happens).

If the argument is keep him as a backup then thats fine but id rather not plus Dodson looked absolutely capable as a backup if TDK needs a rest for a couple of games.

sorry, why will there be less ruck contests?

 

[BrutThough]

Should get on the front foot then and say it.

We've have. Wilkie has also done 3 interviews since the first rumour started saying he isnt leaving. Ross's Heard Sun puppet reiterated that yesterday in his article.

What more do we have to do?

 

[Dard Ball Get]

Hopefully. I think we love our players more than they do. Wouldn't think SOS would have any issue with cashing in his chips if he's after someone else and it fits his strategy.

Would still have to get past RTB and co, not sure he’d be overly keen on losing Colon Wiki

As you say, if the offer was madness, goes without saying…

All hot air me thinks.

 

[phantom13]

I understand what you are saying. I like Marshall - think he gets beaten too much in the ruck but is excellent around the ground. I do think you are underrating him, but that's just a minor difference in opinion.

This is just my theory to go alongside your theory, but what if the Saints want to use Marshall similarly to Luke Jackson?

Now I know they have some different characteristics, but I could see Marshall filling a variety of important roles - not as the no.1 ruckman.

• The damage Marshall could do to opposition second string ruckman would be significant.
• He can obviously play forward, centre-half forward
• Be the marking target on the wing so King can stay deeper forward
• Even swing back late in games as an extra body/interceptor

This is all speculation about his possible uses - but it's the same speculating that there is no worth to him as a second ruck IMO.

To be honest, he played a pretty similar role as what is stated above when Ryder was no.1 ruck to decent effect as well.

I think it's definitely worth a go for 12 months if he wants to stay. I'm also happy to get a first rounder and move on if he wants to leave though.

The last bit is really the key and I’ve said it a bunch of times.

If he wants to stay then by all means retain him, I’ve also said I’d back the club to make the right call.

I can assure I don’t under rate Roma, I ****ing love him and I’d prefer we didn’t get TDK I just don’t think any team can play two genuine first choice ruckmen in modern footy.

 

[thekizzler]

Should get on the front foot then and say it.

They already did when there was the 'mass exodus' story.

Ross spoke. Wilkie spoke.

Why should they have to speak every time some journalism cuck prints a story that might or might be true?

I don't think I've seen a more emphatic pledge from both Ross and Wilkie that his future is at St Kilda.

It would be absolutely extraordinary, like I have never seen before, if he did leave from that point.

 

[nikkig98]

He wants out and cracks it. If he wants out clubs rarely force it even though there are examples to the contrary. They believe it's still in play and while they do it means that there is a chance. Apparently they want an answer from him soon to plan for others to chase. It is still more common to let players walk that hold them agains their will.

While I don't know Wilks personally, i doubt this happens. You're right that when players want out that the clubs don't force it, the overall incidence of players getting to that level in the first place is pretty low. Just get highlighted by the media way more when it happens. Also, imagine the amount of players that express this desire internally and it gets fixed by a conversation or 2 with the club coach and leadership without being publicized.

I think we're way too pedantic in this thread (and fans in general) about players that are reported as unhappy. E.g. (we're gonna anger windy, we're gonna anger nas, we're gonna anger Rowan). They're not children, and its only the media who egg this sort of belief on.

You can be unhappy or slightly irritated and not jump straight to wanting away from the club.

If Zach Merrett hasn't cracked it in the last 2-3 years (this year might finally be different), then Wilkie will be absolutely fine. Additionally, if you're a contracted player that is important to the club, then even less likely you'll get to go, otherwise Christian Petracca would 100% have been a goner last year.

 

[gringo2011]

No doubt the club would have used whatever leverage it had to influence JSOS's decision and to win him over. That is different to the decision-making, being the decision to offer him a contract and on what terms. There ain't no way SOS could have been involved in that - for one, it would completely prejudice the club's ability to negotiate with his manager, if SOS was involved. "Hey son, tell your manager to ask for another $50k, I can tell you we have some room to move in the cap". There is ruthless, and there is moronic.

You think there is that level of professionalism inside footy clubs? This isn't the boardroom where they keep every note and conversation recorded incase regulators look over their conduct. This would be "hey SOS block your ears, we are discussing the most we could pay Jack" level of removal at most is my guess.

 

[phantom13]

I thought you wanted everyone to run free in the fields for years of service rendered?

I can’t help that I’m a romantic at heart.

 

[stavro#4]

He wants out and cracks it. If he wants out clubs rarely force it even though there are examples to the contrary. They believe it's still in play and while they do it means that there is a chance. Apparently they want an answer from him soon to plan for others to chase. It is still more common to let players walk that hold them agains their will.

It sounds like Wilkie hasn’t been keen but they are willing to throw significantly more money at him to convince him otherwise and as you said they will give him a small window to change his mind before moving on.

 

[gringo2011]

They already did when there was the 'mass exodus' story.

Ross spoke. Wilkie spoke.

Why should they have to speak every time some journalism cuck prints a story that might or might be true?

I don't think I've seen a more emphatic pledge from both Ross and Wilkie that his future is at St Kilda.

It would be absolutely extraordinary, like I have never seen before, if he did leave from that point.

Gabelich is an ex employee and well connected at the club still. I listen to him more than a lot of others. Not liking "still in play". The rumours are that Wilkie wasn't happy with the wages being offered and that has never gone away. He's probably on the same or less than Aleer is getting next year and probably ends up offered up to $1 million more a season at the Dogs. Best case is that we renegotiate with him and extend him out on more.