Preview Semi Final: Changes vs. Hawthorn

[brucetiki]

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[rocket18]

Not really sure that is a fair statement, its the closest Top 8 in history, 8th being a team that beat us earlier in the year and only lost to Brisbane and Us in their last 5 games.

We had a good run in, but they are a very good side and they also made finals last year, so have that little bit more experience than our group.

Coaching is key, but player pressure and composure is a bigger factor, but comparing 1st on the ladder to 8th on the ladder this year doesn't mean anything and means even less come finals.

Hawthorn are not a standard 8th ranked side, they could have finished 3rd heading into the final game (which they lost by 10 points) and finished with 15 wins. They weren't scraping into the top 8 like most other 8th ranked sides are and beat the majority of teams in the top 8. Brisbane would have finished 8th if they lost that final game.

Quite clearly every team in the 8 can beat each other on their day and that's been shown with results all season.

Fair bit of cope going on in this thread.

Woulda shoulda coulda - sounds like the AFC over the last 20 years.

Slice it and dice it however you want, if we lose two home finals it will be a massive choke.

I'm hoping like hell we beat the Hawks, the pressure will be off our boys completely and that should free us up to play attacking against the Cats - I would love to see that.

 

[1990crow]

I admit i'm not going into this game brimming with confidence. I was more confident both times we played them during the year then I am 1 day out from the Semi Final.

However, I literally picked 4 losses in the first round of finals. Which proves to me that this flag is anyones to win, and winning odds are irrelevant.

I'm going in with hope, not expectation.

I'm relatively confident. Club will know they have to give this everything.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Fair bit of cope going on in this thread.

Shit tonne of cope is coming from those that don't even want to consider we win, a lot of protecting of feelings going on.

Pure cope.

 

[MsTopG]

Shit tonne of cope is coming from those that don't even want to consider we win, a lot of protecting of feelings going on.

Pure cope.

I think everyone wants us to win. Most don't have any confidence we will. Flakey Crows.

 

[GreyCrow]

Goes to show how bad Nicks is, 1 (playing at home) vs 8 should not be even money.

I agree with those who suggest Hawks at 8 isnt a true reflection of their list and club and coach

We will see

 

[Peter Doherty]

I think everyone wants us to win. Most don't have any confidence we will. Flakey Crows.

Cope with it however suits you best.

 

[MsTopG]

Goes to show how bad Nicks is, 1 (playing at home) vs 8 should not be even money.

The ladder wasn't representative of order. We are an 8th-10th team. Look at where we sit against the top 8 clubs. We cant score or move the ball against them. That's all on Nicks.

 

[1990crow]

The ladder wasn't representative of order. We are an 8th-10th team.

Rubbish.

 

[Scorpus]

Fair bit of cope going on in this thread.

Woulda shoulda coulda - sounds like the AFC over the last 20 years.

Slice it and dice it however you want, if we lose two home finals it will be a massive choke.

I'm hoping like hell we beat the Hawks, the pressure will be off our boys completely and that should free us up to play attacking against the Cats - I would love to see that.

Yep.

The "evenness" in the ladder is brought about by the bottom teams being historically awful.

We had a great record in the home and away season. Going out in straight sets from two home finals would be a choke and a fail

 

[MsTopG]

Rubbish.

Not rubbish at all. I bother to check our results against the top 8 clubs. From memory we sit around 13th. We have/had a good defence against them but cant score or move the ball against them. It's happened all year.

 

[Scorpus]

I agree with those who suggest Hawks at 8 isnt a true reflection of their list and club and coach

We will see

Hawks have the worst record of the finalists against other finalists. That's a pretty typical "8th" side

They've only beaten Sydney and now GWS away from home this year. The only top 8 side they beat at home was Collingwood, plus us and GWS in Tasmania

 

[GreyCrow]

Not rubbish at all. I bother to check our results against the top 8 clubs. From memory we sit around 13th.

Hawks have the worst record of the finalists against other finalists. That's a pretty typical "8th" side

I did like the symmetry of these 2 posts one after the other

 

[Peter Doherty]

Not rubbish at all. I bother to check our results against the top 8 clubs. From memory we sit around 13th. We have (had) a good defence against them but cant score or move the ball against them. It's happened all year.

13th?

Our record against top 8 clubs puts us 13th?

 

[Betts are off]

Thilthorpe vs Barrass could be the pivotal matchup this week. I feel like he was off last week, but this week TT is going to come out blazing hot!

Put it advantage side of him, and get the f**k out the way!

 

[fossilllCrow]

Thilthorpe vs Barrass could be the pivotal matchup this week. I feel like he was off last week, but this week TT is going to come out blazing hot!

Put it advantage side of him, and get the f**k out the way!

Couldn’t agree more, kicks to advantage the most underrated skill in the league.

Thrills and I think Keays is very over due

 

[Betts are off]

Couldn’t agree more, kicks to advantage the most underrated skill in the league.

Thrills and I think Keays is very over due

Last week we lost the game by kicking to the advantage side of Pies players or directly to Pies players all night.

Was the decisions of a shell shocked group of mids who refused to lower their eyes and couldn't enter F50 to save themselves.

Tidy that up and we are immediately a 5 goal better team IMO.

 

[Slim258]

Fair bit of cope going on in this thread.

Woulda shoulda coulda - sounds like the AFC over the last 20 years.

Slice it and dice it however you want, if we lose two home finals it will be a massive choke.

I'm hoping like hell we beat the Hawks, the pressure will be off our boys completely and that should free us up to play attacking against the Cats - I would love to see that.

Cope or realism?

We're 10th youngest in the comp for average age, 4th for those teams in finals, the only one remaining who is younger is Gold Coast.
We're 9th least (game) experienced in the league, or 3rd for those in finals, the only one remaining who has less experience is Gold Coast.

Minor premiers is a tick, but it doesn't guarantee you shit nor entitles you.
Getting there is only part of the battle, the players were put on notice last week and we will see how they respond, but experience in finals speaks volumes to those who go on to win it. Took Brisbane 6 years to win it after making it after their first finals post rebuild.

 

[George CantStandYa]

Case for Crows
Midfield will be more even, need to shutdown Newcombe and they’ll try to shut down Dawson
We will pick a proper side this week
Our forward line is better
Home ground
8 day break v 6

Case for Hawks
Far better coach
Confidence v doubts
Better ball movement and run
Strong defence, lots of interceptors

The Pies had the class and experience in their midfield to bury us and they did, Hawks don’t have that. We should be a lot more in this game if Mitchell doesn’t smash Nicks.

Nervous but we have no choice but to win. Lose this and become the first minor premiers to go out in straight sets since 83 will be extremely embarrassing and if there is a one shining light, the club can’t extend Nicks contract, especially if he has another mare.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

I admit i'm not going into this game brimming with confidence. I was more confident both times we played them during the year then I am 1 day out from the Semi Final.

However, I literally picked 4 losses in the first round of finals. Which proves to me that this flag is anyones to win, and winning odds are irrelevant.

I'm going in with hope, not expectation.

Haha yeah I tipped Adelaide, Brisbane, Freo and GWS last week (as most people did). Ignore tipping/favourites on betting odds, we’ve got no idea atm!

 

[Scorpus]

Cope or realism?

We're 10th youngest in the comp for average age, 4th for those teams in finals, the only one remaining who is younger is Gold Coast.
We're 9th least (game) experienced in the league, or 3rd for those in finals, the only one remaining who has less experience is Gold Coast.

Minor premiers is a tick, but it doesn't guarantee you shit nor entitles you.
Getting there is only part of the battle, the players were put on notice last week and we will see how they respond, but experience in finals speaks volumes to those who go on to win it. Took Brisbane 6 years to win it after making it after their first finals post rebuild.

We had the best home and away record of any team in the competition this year, including a fantastic record at home

It's "realism" to suggest we should be winning a home final from that position. I expect us to and it would unacceptable not to.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Not rubbish at all. I bother to check our results against the top 8 clubs. From memory we sit around 13th. We have/had a good defence against them but cant score or move the ball against them. It's happened all year.

We sat 3rd before finals actually (5-5), but you weren’t far off

Edit: it was 5th actually (but we also played the more top 8 sides than 3 of the 4 above us) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_record_against_finals_teams.html

 

[Slim258]

We had the best home and away record of any team in the competition this year, including a fantastic record at home

It's "realism" to suggest we should be winning a home final from that position. I expect us to and it would unacceptable not to.

In no way am I saying its not a realistic expectation we shouldn't be beating Hawthorn but you're only as good as your last game and last game we were woeful and only lost by 3 4 goals.

Last time we played Hawthorn we let them have a 7 Goal and 5 Goal unanswered run, we need to be better and I expect that we will be. Crows by 14.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

In no way am I saying its not a realistic expectation we shouldn't be beating Hawthorn but you're only as good as your last game and last game we were woeful and only lost by 3 4 goals.

Last time we played Hawthorn we let them have a 7 Goal and 5 Goal unanswered run, we need to be better and I expect that we will be. Crows by 14.

Day is why they got that dominance in the midfield early last time, once he went off our midfield got well on top.

 

[Thrillthorpe7]

Also only one of 4 teams with a percentage over 100 against the top 8

 

[George CantStandYa]

Day is why they got that dominance in the midfield early last time, once he went off our midfield got well on top.

Newcombe was out of form or carrying something, he’s firing now