AFL 2025 Brownlow

[Billionaire Panda]

An equal waste of time. You can't argue that the votes themselves have been changed just that he knew the result

Yep true, AFL has said there’s nothing to suggest the integrity of the votes themselves have been compromised.

Also there were around 7 games from 2021 they bet on and 17 in 2022 so we’re really just speculating that the Amon ones were fixed coz it was the most unlikely.

Does make you wonder even right now how many corrupt umpires there are and what kind of bets they’d be placing. ‘To poll a vote’ multis seem the easiest way but also the one most monitored.

 

[ash_1050]

Kangs most votes: LDU 13s on pbet. Honestly surprised how its not 2.50. Xerri unbackable fave and has 1 career vote. Supreme value.

Was going to tail this but LDU is into $6 now which is unders. Interestingly both he and Sheezel are $5.50 on SB.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Was going to tail this but LDU is into $6 now which is unders. Interestingly both he and Sheezel are $5.50 on SB.

Has come in a lot but I don't think its unders. If I knew he was 5.50 after Rd 24 I would have loaded that, just doesn't look as pretty cos we know he was a ridiculous 14s

 

[Geeves Train]

Has come in a lot but I don't think its unders. If I knew he was 5.50 after Rd 24 I would have loaded that, just doesn't look as pretty cos we know he was a ridiculous 14s

$5.50 still great shopping for LDU, I got him winning North.

If we are going to start with lawsuits for umps getting votes wrong we don’t start with Pell we start with 2021 Rd 6, Western Bulldogs vs GWS

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Team handicaps thoughts?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Dont mind
McKay
Baz
Finn
Day
Kerch
Burgoyne
Nank
Nas

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Dont mind
McKay
Baz
Finn
Day
Kerch
Burgoyne
Nank
Nas

McKercher interesting, was thinking 6 as his max and with LDU a chance to take it outright thought he would've been the value.

Don't mind Will Day as well, although the price has kept coming in.

Nas was a good price relatively, 23-24 could take out the handicap yet he was a shorter price for 25+

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Is the Burgoyne one more about the main guys not getting to 23-24? I've been staying clear of Ports one coz felt quite a few are in the mix. I've got Hornet taking it, but feel even Aliir could poll some random ones and take it

 

[Sausage Legs]

Is the Burgoyne one more about the main guys not getting to 23-24? I've been staying clear of Ports one coz felt quite a few are in the mix. I've got Hornet taking it, but feel even Aliir could poll some random ones and take it

Yeah got Burgoyne 1.5 and allir 1.
Butters 22.5. No great edge but Burgoyne i think is 1.50 to poll a vote and if he does for me he covers butters.

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Team handicaps thoughts?

The Eagles one Ive got a tie in a 3-way. Range of votes on all players in the handicap being 1-3 votes.

Dont mind
McKay
Baz
Finn
Day
Kerch
Burgoyne
Nank
Nas

Nank I have in a 2 way tie for Richmond votes.


Essendon players I have all ranging from 15 to 17 votes.

Gold Coast if you take out Touk Miller handicap, I have all their remaining 7 players within a range of 3 votes. Touk I dont think wins this group mainly because Suns looked to rest him during the season/manage his minutes which I think will count against him. Anderson is favourite to win that group and my tally aligns with him winning that GC Handicap.

 

[Fullwit]

where can I bet on/see the individual games like usual- when do they release these markets?

 

[sohohoho]

Team handicaps thoughts?

they've done a much better effort this year assigning the head starts

 

[Billionaire Panda]

they've done a much better effort this year assigning the head starts

Yeah they have. When you look at what the marks will likely be for each team and compare it to the odds for the main guys getting 20+, 25+ 30+ they're mostly about right

 

[sohohoho]

Yeah they have. When you look at what the marks will likely be for each team and compare it to the odds for the main guys getting 20+, 25+ 30+ they're mostly about right

if use any sort of aggregated count then you wont get any players more than 2 votes ahead of any other player I dont think, and that really isnt a lot when theres a small group likely a couple back.

im not sure any of the faves are value, Day is the closest for me but he has a few things going against him to be have any confidence.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

where can I bet on/see the individual games like usual- when do they release these markets?

Last year was September 19, 4 days before the count. But most other markets have dropped a bit earlier this year so maybe sooner.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

im not sure any of the faves are value, Day is the closest for me but he has a few things going against him to be have any confidence.

Yeah has to maximise the few chances he has.

At best Daicos 3.25 is a fair price. You'd want 34+ to be confident and he's $4 for 35+

Serong you'd expect that to require 25+, and he's the same price for 25+

Smith looks like 31+ to be safe and he's $2 for 30+ so about right

Nas is the same price in this as he is for 25+

Heeney 6.50 into 3.30. May need 22+ and he's $2.25 for 20+ and $10 for 25+ so seems just fair

From a value perspective may be better trying to cherry pick random guys we've got higher, whereas in previous years there's usually been more obvious multis involving faves (which have still lost - thanks Neale)

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Yeah they have. When you look at what the marks will likely be for each team and compare it to the odds for the main guys getting 20+, 25+ 30+ they're mostly about right

Not sure what your trying to imply here. Just had a quick look at my own values and I only have 9 players going 20+ votes or higher. Gold Coast votes for the handicap i have a neck and neck between Anderson and Rowell and they are being priced as fav and 2nd fav on the handicap. Bar the Suns and Bulldogs handicap votes, the other 6 teams have a bit more of a larger vote range (Votes+ Handicap). My Votes+ Handicap range, for Bulldogs and Suns is the closest range of the leading contenders.

3 of the 9 club leaders in that 20+ votes can see winning their Team handicaps and covering. Whats an interesting to note is TAB have got rid of the the +0.5, +1.5, +2.5 etc handicaps from last year, instead rounding to the nearest number eg +1, +2, +3 etc

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Not sure what your trying to imply here. Just had a quick look at my own values and I only have 9 players going 20+ votes or higher. Gold Coast votes for the handicap i have a neck and neck between Anderson and Rowell and they are being priced as fav and 2nd fav on the handicap. Bar the Suns and Bulldogs handicap votes, the other 6 teams have a bit more of a larger vote range (Votes+ Handicap). My Votes+ Handicap range, for Bulldogs and Suns is the closest range of the leading contenders.

3 of the 9 club leaders in that 20+ votes can see winning their Team handicaps and covering. Whats an interesting to note is TAB have got rid of the the +0.5, +1.5, +2.5 etc handicaps from last year, instead rounding to the nearest number eg +1, +2, +3 etc

9 guys 20+ sounds a little low, last year was 13, year before 15. Not impossible but, just means you'll find a lot of value playing outside the scratch guys.

You can usually get a gauge of what they think the handicap mark should be by looking at the player(s) with the highest handicap as they usually just have just one or two good games. From there if you compare the odds on the scratch players to what they're paying for 20+, 25+ and 30+ you can assess if there's anomalies in price. With a lot of the scratch guys this year it feels like its much better just taking them in those 20+ 25+ markets as opposed to taking them in the handicaps

 

[bobs head soup]

Just stumbled across this thread.

I have $500 on BM each year, most years I manage a profit.

FWIW this year my bets are:

N.Daicos win $100@ $3.10

Bontempelli top 5 $50@ $7.00
Butters top 5 $50@ $7.00

Bontempelli top 10 $125@ $2.00
Butters top 10 $125@ $2.00

Liberatore top 20 $50@ $8.00

Any 2 results = a profit.

 

[Rank]

Smith U 29.5
Holmes O 20.5
Dawson O 27.5
Rozee U 16.5
Serong O 22.5
MCluggage O 21.5 @39.78

Rozee U 16.5
Naicos O 30.5
Smith U 29.5
Dawson O 27.5
Anderson U 27.5
Serong O 22.5
Butters U 22.5
NWM O 21.5
Holmes O 20.5 @315

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

TAB Touch WA Promo: Bet Refund if a player polls 30+ but doesn't win.

Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

Brownlow Winner at $7.60 at TAB Touch WA.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Anyone that has Anderson a proper chance, please convince me. What does he get to and what games?

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Anyone that has Anderson a proper chance, please convince me. What does he get to and what games?

I had him below 30 initially. Just think its the best value outsider of the non-favourites. Dont want to reveal specific details but there are counts out there that have him for 6 Best on Grounds in 2025. Feel like if its a lowish count 30 or 31 may do the job, possibly even high 20s.

Noah will start a bit slowly in the first 9 rounds but will have a strong middle phase and end of season run home. Basing it on purely, Daicos dropping votes in the early rounds.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

See I’m a pretty big fan of Anderson as a player. In 2023 my count had him getting 24 votes so it didn’t surprise me one bit when he shocked everyone with his polling power that night. But I really think he’s the guy most likely to let everyone down this year.

Feel like if its a lowish count 30 or 31 may do the job, possibly even high 20s.

This is the thing. Anderson winning requires the Steven Bradbury. All the counts that have him high up are lower counts. He’s operating close to his maximum and will find it extremely difficult to get up in a higher count. If I allocate him absolutely every vote possible for his good games he gets to 33. But if I do the same for Daicos, Smith, Dawson and even Rowell they get to 40.

And in order to actually go high we’re also asking him to overcome the polling history of last year where Rowell dominated him. And adding to that Rowell improved his game (~3 more disposals, higher clearances, tackles, goals) more than Anderson improved his (~1 more disposal and 1 clearance).

Seems like Anderson has a high minimum and that puts him right in the mix for all the lower counts. Last player that reminds me of was Cripps’ 2022 where Neale Miller and Oliver/Petracca just missed out in a few games and allowed the 29 to win . However, with the extra game this year the equivalent would be around 30-31. And Cripps hardly had competition on his own team.

He can win but I’m certain he’s unders at anything under $10. Should be switched around with Rowell in the market.

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

And in order to actually go high we’re also asking him to overcome the polling history of last year where Rowell dominated him. And adding to that Rowell improved his game (~3 more disposals, higher clearances, tackles, goals) more than Anderson improved his (~1 more disposal and 1 clearance).

Seems like Anderson has a high minimum and that puts him right in the mix for all the lower counts. Last player that reminds me of was Cripps’ 2022 where Neale Miller and Oliver/Petracca just missed out in a few games and allowed the 29 to win . However, with the extra game this year the equivalent would be around 30-31. And Cripps hardly had competition on his own team.

He can win but I’m certain he’s unders at anything under $10. Should be switched around with Rowell in the market.

Rowell had a fairly quite period during the middle phase of the season.

Early stage of season+ End of season= Rowell outpolls Noah

Middle stage of the season= Noah outpolls Rowell

Read from one count, the pair had seven 3-2 counts this season....CodeSports- not sure how reliable they are. I guess how those 2 and 3 votes are split will go a long way in determining who finishes ahead.