Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jimmae]

If I’m West Coast, I’m taking Greeves and Robey at the top of the draft.
Pair two teammates together to cross the border create a great combination with Harley.

Completely forgot about Greeves, solid call.

 

[branedotorg]

i will say that I got a giggle out of Taj 'the slim reaper' Murray's profile in the afl.com.au article. Great nickname for a ruck forward who looks like he's made out of pipecleaners.

 

[Stamos]

I tend to agree with this more than Stamos relying on blind “early” rankings. The draft order will largely sort itself leading up to night. That is when Twomey in particular, collates info from club feedback and that from agents.

Depending on club “needs” or strategy Dean could go top five or six, but I still believe he is more likely to make it to double figures and be “touch and go” around our compensation pick. Most of the clubs ahead of us have “sorted” their long term key position prospects. St Kilda are acquiring both Aleer and JSOS in that area to go with Wilkie and some other veterans (Howard and Cordy) as well as young Caminiti, Tauru and James Barrat from the last draft and Schoenmaker who is at least a third tall. Why would SOS reach that far, their deficiency is in the middle, and they still have to pay for their trade targets.

* has been spoken of as a suitor given their injuries, but some of those injured players are good, even great prospects headed by Reid and Hayes along with their investment in McKay. They ATM still have Ridley and Laverde along with MSD swingmen May and Blackiston.

It is not a fait accompli that Dean gets a bid in the top ten, let alone the top six. Our list managers will be prepared for any eventuality. Bear in mind the days of getting ahead of bids will largely be gone with the new draft index and reduced discount. We may choose to straight bat the Dean circumstance to reduce the possibility of the AFL introducing mooted changes for next year cutting us off from Cody.

I'm not saying he will necessarily get bid on that early, just that he will before the TDK compo pick if we're holding it, or hypothetically before Gold Coast's pick if we were holding that.

Clubs aren't going to let us get an extra.

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

I'm not saying he will necessarily get bid on that early, just that he will before the TDK compo pick if we're holding it, or hypothetically before Gold Coast's pick if we were holding that.

Clubs aren't going to let us get an extra.

We wont be holding any early picks IMO. That compo pick is traded for a player! Ill be shocked if we go to the draft with it TBH. This draft is not a high end calibre draft and Wright IMO will do as he has a history of and bring in established talent because thats what we need to move up the ladder. We wont be slowly rebuilding thats for sure
Dean and Ison may be all we draft.
Rest will be established players id imagine

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Dean doesn't play for a month or so and all of the sudden he's got all these knocks on his game out of the blue .

For anyone who watched the champs series and his CTL games they'd know he was near on impassable down back similar to that of a Weitering or Sam Taylor

15

Sam Taylor

Age

26

Ht

198cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.1

4star

MG

130.5

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.5

1star

HB

5.5

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.5

3star

MG

60.8

1star

D

8.6

3star

K

3.0

1star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.8

5star

MG

110.8

2star

type figure.

Absolutely a top 10 talent this year, well ahead of some of the other names that have been floated as 'ahead of him'.

 

[ctwenty1]

Dean doesn't play for a month or so and all of the sudden he's got all these knocks on his game out of the blue .

For anyone who watched the champs series and his CTL games they'd know he was near on impassable down back similar to that of a Weitering or Sam Taylor type figure.

Absolutely a top 10 talent this year, well ahead of some of the other names that have been floated as 'ahead of him'.

Why are you saying this out loud? Dont you realise recruiters and journos are all over bigfooty for player intel?

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Why are you saying this out loud? Dont you realise recruiters and journos are all over bigfooty for player intel?

If recruiters aren't seeing this for themselves they should be looking for a new gig

 

[Jimmae]

I'm not saying he will necessarily get bid on that early, just that he will before the TDK compo pick if we're holding it, or hypothetically before Gold Coast's pick if we were holding that.

Clubs aren't going to let us get an extra.

Name the clubs ahead of us that are a strong chance to make a bid, try to include some list analysis.

This just comes across as catastrophising.

Dean doesn't play for a month or so and all of the sudden he's got all these knocks on his game out of the blue .

For anyone who watched the champs series and his CTL games they'd know he was near on impassable down back similar to that of a Weitering or Sam Taylor type figure.

Absolutely a top 10 talent this year, well ahead of some of the other names that have been floated as 'ahead of him'.

Weitering had a ready made physique, ran a 15 beep test (not yoyo), was and is an elite kick, happily got involved in half back rebound, and averaged like 20 disposals while shutting down the opposition's best forward and not taking kickouts or cheap receives.

Also noted as elite in terms of temperament and coachability, all while being bottom age (November birthday).

Taylor was pick 28.

Thanks for proving my point!

 

[Stamos]

Name the clubs ahead of us that are a strong chance to make a bid, try to include some list analysis.

List analysis is irrelevant for top 10 talent and keeping clubs honest.

 

[Jimmae]

List analysis is irrelevant for top 10 talent and keeping clubs honest.

Terrible take with no historical evidence. All you have so far is Twomey - a Bombers fan who weaves this into his draft profiling - pumping his tyres a bit.

Have I just misread you as being level-headed all these years?

 

[macky99]

Terrible take with no historical evidence. All you have so far is Twomey - a Bombers fan who weaves this into his draft profiling - pumping his tyres a bit.

Have I just misread you as being level-headed all these years?

Your evaluation of Dean is some way off, in last year's draft he may be go 15-20 but he would be 8-15 in most drafts.

Looks a very solid selection based on his form this year.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Name the clubs ahead of us that are a strong chance to make a bid, try to include some list analysis.

This just comes across as catastrophising.

Weitering had a ready made physique, ran a 15 beep test (not yoyo), was and is an elite kick, happily got involved in half back rebound, and averaged like 20 disposals while shutting down the opposition's best forward and not taking kickouts or cheap receives.

Also noted as elite in terms of temperament and coachability, all while being bottom age (November birthday).

Taylor was pick 28.

Thanks for proving my point!

Dean does all this just to a slightly lesser standard so I'm not really sure what you're on about? He was considered stiff not to win VIC C's MVP ahead of the likely 1st pick of this draft.

Dominates in the air, was a key rebounder for his team and also shut down the oppositions best forwards better than any other KPD in this draft.

I'd love for Dean and Ison to go in the 20s and 50s, but based on their output this season and their athletic profiles the chances are they will go far far higher than most would like to admit.

 

[Stamos]

Terrible take with no historical evidence. All you have so far is Twomey - a Bombers fan who weaves this into his draft profiling - pumping his tyres a bit.

Have I just misread you as being level-headed all these years?

North taking Will Phillips at 3 instead of bidding on Campbell and letting the Swans take Logan McDonald at 4 seems to be the only case I can see of a club letting another get an extra pick in.

 

[Pablito]

Name the clubs ahead of us that are a strong chance to make a bid, try to include some list analysis.

This just comes across as catastrophising.

Weitering had a ready made physique, ran a 15 beep test (not yoyo), was and is an elite kick, happily got involved in half back rebound, and averaged like 20 disposals while shutting down the opposition's best forward and not taking kickouts or cheap receives.

Also noted as elite in terms of temperament and coachability, all while being bottom age (November birthday).

Taylor was pick 28.

Thanks for proving my point!

St Kilda - Bringing in Aleer and SOS. Potentially losing Wilkie and Howard cant be relied on. There's a need for another KPD.

Essendon - Ridley going, Mckay not delivering, Laverde 30 next year. Reid always injured.
Brought in Blakkiston. I can see a bid, especially if they get Hawthorn's pick for Merret.

Hawthorn - considering who they brought in last year, and their backups are Frost and Serong. They may want another, but unlikely imo.

Richmond - could split one of their picks and bid on him. But they have a few young KPD so unlikely.

WC - unlikely but they need KPDs.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Must be a crap draft if Dean is rated that highly. I agree with Jimmae. Dean's a good prospect but less of a 'sure thing' than most KP players that are ranked in the top 10-12.

Strong disagree.

Denver Grainger-Barass, Fischer McAsey, Josh Schache, Sam Weideman, Sam Day,

KP prospects are always boom or bust. Even pick 1 KP's are pretty speculative. Paddy McCartin, Tom Boyd, John Patton, Jack Watts.

Few sure things above 195 cm

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I'd actually say Dean is more of a sure thing....the ceiling is harder to predict but looks very much to have the attributes to be at the least, a solid AFL third tall defender

 

[Bletch]

What is different this year from previous is that matching bids will need a bunch of picks in the ~20s rather than the ~40s. So can expect the likes of Gold Coast, Brisbane, Sydney, and potentially us, to trade out the earlier picks for extra points.

e.g. Suns might plan to live trade pick 6 (7) to a Freo, GWS, Norf, WC or WB who all have points to spare and might like to move up the order.

It will be interesting to see if this will mean a change in the thinking behind bidding on F/S and academy prospects. In the past, there wasn't a huge incentive to bid on other team's players early (e.g. Nick Daicos). All you're doing is taking out a bunch of late 2nd/3rd round picks out of the draft. And you can buy goodwill by not bidding for when your turn comes around.

However, with the matching picks now in a more "interesting" range, I think it's likely to see a change in dynamic.

For instance. West Coast have picks 1, 15, 19, 33, 51. They'll likely get pick 2 as well (compo). Bidding early (likely with the second pick rather than the first), will bring those picks 33 and 51 into a more useful range. So for instance it's feasible they might go:
1. Duursma
2. Uwland (bid)
3. Patterson (bid)
4. Annable (bid)
5. Dean (bid)
6. Duff-Tytler

And with those 4 early bids wipe out a huge number of mid-range picks. Would expect a bunch of trading as these bids come in. Will be interesting to see how it pans out - and is also why there should be no changes to the F/S for the next couple of years. Needs time to see the results.

Upshot of all of this is that I can see a bid on Dean quite early - if not WC, then almost certainly Richmond or Essendon. Is he pick 5 material? Maybe, maybe not, but there's more to it than that.

Another thing to consider... Traditionally, early phantoms over-rate Father/Sons and Academy picks. There's more focus on them in junior years. Cody for instance - heaps of talk that he's a "certainty" for a top-2 pick. And maybe he will be, but it's way too early. What we often see in the draft year is that these players drift - not all of them obviously, and again Daicos a prime example of one who was identified very early as a top end pick, and retained that value. But it is typical to see many of these players drift.

This isn't the case for Harry Dean. There was barely a whisper about him before the start of this year. Perhaps due to injuries during his underage year. But apart from us Carlton supporters on this thread (and the F/S thread), there was barely any chat at all - I did a quick search and found 6 posts on the main board draft hub prior to the start of this season, and none were pumping his tyres. He has risen quickly through the rankings on the back of an excellent national champs series. And it's for this reason that I think he won't drift (or not much) from where the rankings have him placed now - in the 5 to 10 range. I can't see him lasting till our first pick.

ymmv.

 

[Jimmae]

Dean does all this just to a slightly lesser standard so I'm not really sure what you're on about? He was considered stiff not to win VIC C's MVP ahead of the likely 1st pick of this draft.

Dominates in the air, was a key rebounder for his team and also shut down the oppositions best forwards better than any other KPD in this draft.

I'd love for Dean and Ison to go in the 20s and 50s, but based on their output this season and their athletic profiles the chances are they will go far far higher than most would like to admit.

I am arguing for 12-16 and 35+. I think we're not seeing the full board just yet when it comes to the top 20 of this draft.

There's hardly an elite KPF prospect for him to line up on this year to show how he is an elite defender.

North taking Will Phillips at 3 instead of bidding on Campbell and letting the Swans take Logan McDonald at 4 seems to be the only case I can see of a club letting another get an extra pick in.

So many times teams have underbid when it comes to academy and father/son prospects, pretty much every time except JUH.

I've commented on this for years. The only reach I can recall was Kennedy.

St Kilda - Bringing in Aleer and SOS. Potentially losing Wilkie and Howard cant be relied on. There's a need for another KPD.

Essendon - Ridley going, Mckay not delivering, Laverde 30 next year. Reid always injured.
Brought in Blakkiston. I can see a bid, especially if they get Hawthorn's pick for Merret.

Hawthorn - considering who they brought in last year, and their backups are Frost and Serong. They may want another, but unlikely imo.

Richmond - could split one of their picks and bid on him. But they have a few young KPD so unlikely.

WC - unlikely but they need KPDs.

Essendon is fair but their current needs and picks will have them looking at stoppage mid.

The rest will be looking elsewhere, which is my point. I'm off with my projected Saints pick, and someone from the prior names will be dislodged as a bunch of clubs consider Greeves.

Strong disagree.

Denver Grainger-Barass, Fischer McAsey, Josh Schache, Sam Weideman, Sam Day,

KP prospects are always boom or bust. Even pick 1 KP's are pretty speculative. Paddy McCartin, Tom Boyd, John Patton, Jack Watts.

Few sure things above 195 cm

I advocated for not bothering with Schache and McCartin (for different reasons). I don't remember being massive on DGB and McAsey either.

Weideman went too high and I said as much despite having some interest in him for us.

Watts and Day were drafts I didn't play close attention to, but they made a lot of recruiters really work on how they evaluate KPPs.

Boyd was a miss by clubland in terms of mental health support, and Patton was a case of triple ACLs while being 95+ kgs.

Not many defenders in your shortlist.

 

[circusdevil]

Wish you recruited for us Jimmae ... don't think you and your time machine have missed one yet.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I am arguing for 12-16 and 35+. I think we're not seeing the full board just yet when it comes to the top 20 of this draft.

There's hardly an elite KPF prospect for him to line up on this year to show how he is an elite defender.

So many times teams have underbid when it comes to academy and father/son prospects, pretty much every time except JUH.

I've commented on this for years. The only reach I can recall was Kennedy.

Essendon is fair but their current needs and picks will have them looking at stoppage mid.

The rest will be looking elsewhere, which is my point. I'm off with my projected Saints pick, and someone from the prior names will be dislodged as a bunch of clubs consider Greeves.


I advocated for not bothering with Schache and McCartin (for different reasons). I don't remember being massive on DGB and McAsey either.

Weideman went too high and I said as much despite having some interest in him for us.

Watts and Day were drafts I didn't play close attention to, but they made a lot of recruiters really work on how they evaluate KPPs.

Boyd was a miss by clubland in terms of mental health support, and Patton was a case of triple ACLs while being 95+ kgs.

Not many defenders in your shortlist.

There is not a chance in hell Dean falls to 16. He's more likely to go top 5 than drop that far.

Ison may go 35+ but more likely to be early-mid 20s

 

[SurreyBlue]

This draft is weak and real concern if you have multiple top picks. Ison being talked about top 20, let alone top 30 is alarm bells. Sorry.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This draft is weak and real concern if you have multiple top picks. Ison being talked about top 20, let alone top 30 is alarm bells. Sorry.

And why is that exactly?

 

[SurreyBlue]

And why is that exactly?

That’s easy. Not good enough to be a top 30 pick.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

That’s easy. Not good enough to be a top 30 pick.

Right... But that's not really explaining anything?

Over the years the draft has been littered with players who dominated their under 18s campaigns but lacked the necessary athletic traits or style of play to transition to the next level smoothly.

A player like George Stevens comes to mind who ended up going at pick 58 in his draft year. He had a far better 18s season than Ison has, another would be Ben Camporeale. Dominated just about every game he played as an inside mid but due to his kicking flaws and a lack of general dynamism he slid down the order despite being far ahead of his peers in terms of on field performances.

Ison is a 190cm mid/fwd who has elite athletic traits and has shown an ability to dominate games after an injury interrupted start to the year. He's got far more upside than plenty of the players around him who have put up better numbers and thus will be ranked higher than some on draft night.

Gresham is practically in the opposite camp, he's had good performances all year but lacks any real traits that should translate to the next level as a mid or a forward.

 

[Jimmae]

There is not a chance in hell Dean falls to 16. He's more likely to go top 5 than drop that far.

Ison may go 35+ but more likely to be early-mid 20s

16 is currently odds on for where GWS' pick will fall, that's why I've chosen it. He could well get a bid from the Dogs at what will probably be pick 12 or 13 on the night.

We can pay for that with the SOS compo and a chunk of the Lions' 2nd rounder, and maybe leaves us with a 100 points deficit for an Ison bid at the end of the 2nd round, something that can be fixed with a mid-to-late third round pick.