Preview Prelim Final 25 - Geelong V Hawthorn Fri 19th Sept 2025 740pm @ MCG

[Mr Meow]

Last year wasnt a coin toss. Geelong were massive favourites playing a team who only even made it to the prelim due to a freak choke by gws who were regarded the better side. The confidence on here going into last years prelim was higher than it is now going into this one.

Hawks finished 8th. But if they were three goals better in their last home and away game they would of finished 3rd. Basically no difference between 3rd and 8th this season.

$1.73 favourite in the 2024 prelim. Hardly massive. It was thought that Brisbane would tire after their chaotic semi final but the pre finals bye means teams can make deeper runs without fatiguing.

We are actually much bigger favourites for this game. Not that I particularly agree with that. But we are very highly rated at the moment, compared to last year where we didn't seem that great before romping in the QF against Port.

 

[fpm84]

We are actually much bigger favourites for this game. Not that I particularly agree with that. But we are very highly rated at the moment, compared to last year where we didn't seem that great before romping in the QF against Port.

We were huge underdogs against Port in the QF and they basically failed to turn up, similar to the Crows this year.
I think across the board even heading into last year’s prelim, there was uncertainty as to how good we actually were, based on the weakness of our QF opponent.

 

[Mr Meow]

We were huge underdogs against Port in the QF and they basically failed to turn up, similar to the Crows this year.
I think across the board even heading into last year’s prelim, there was uncertainty as to how good we actually were, based on the weakness of our QF opponent.

Agreed. Often the home prelim teams are favourite by default too, but of course our home ground advantage at the G isn't quite so big. Let alone when we run into an MCG team like this week.

2024 was a similar story to us against Sydney in 2016 - where we weren't a fantastic side, just barely scraped past Hawthorn and then the 1st placed Swans belted us as "underdogs". It was still us blowing an opportunity, but that 2016 side wasn't that great.

This year I do think we are stronger than the 2016 and 2024 sides. All of the relevant KPIs we are ranked top 4 and often top 2 in, as opposed to 4th-10th (like last year). A soft draw is perhaps a factor, but we have had a "premiership profile".

Holmes permanent move to midfield, Smith coming in as one of the best mids in the league and Atkins massively improving has addressed our major 2024 weakness. Players like Dempsey, Mannagh and Neale have gone up another gear. Blicavs is uninhibited so can help us all around the ground. And Dangerfield is providing spark + grunt up forward (while being fresher to inject into midfield).

Of course none of this guarantees anything in tough one off finals. But we are a better team this year. Closer to 2022 than the 2021, 2023 and 2024 editions.

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Agreed. Often the home prelim teams are favourite by default too, but of course our home ground advantage at the G isn't quite so big. Let alone when we run into an MCG team like this week.

I could be wrong, but watching us this year, I feel like if you re-ran this season in a simulation a million times, we get the best record at the G.

Our play style fits the ground perfectly, and I believe recruitment / coaches have built this team for the MCG specifically.

 

[Mr Meow]

I could be wrong, but watching us this year, I feel like if you re-ran this season in a simulation a million times, we get the best record at the G.

Our play style fits the ground perfectly, and I believe recruitment / coaches have built this team for the MCG specifically.

Yeah the MCG certainly isn't a handicap for us like it used to be.

When I talk about home ground advantage I guess I meant more about the "classic" distinctions: a hostile and unanimous home crowd advantage. And playing there more than anybody else does. So more like Collingwood this weekend against Brisbane.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

I could be wrong, but watching us this year, I feel like if you re-ran this season in a simulation a million times, we get the best record at the G.

Our play style fits the ground perfectly, and I believe recruitment / coaches have built this team for the MCG specifically.

Yeah I think our game style is better for the G than playing at home. Especially with all the outside run and long kicks. Holmes and Smith are perfect for the G.

 

[Cataholic]

They still forecasting rain?

 

[cats_09]

They still forecasting rain?

 

[cats_09]

For those interested

With just three days to go until the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn, Geelong Cats Executive General Manager – Football Andrew Mackie

Andrew Mackie

Age

41

Ht

193cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.2

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.1

4star

MG

346.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

9.0

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.2

4star

can provide the following GMHBA Health Update.

Rhys Stanley
Hamstring, Test ​

“Rhys has reintegrated into training over the past week. We will continue to assess his progress over the next two days and expect to have a clearer indication of his availability as the week unfolds.”

Preliminary Final | GMHBA Health Update​

Player	Injury	Timeline
Rhys Stanley	Hamstring	Test
Jake Kolodjashnij	Hip	Season
Toby Conway	Foot	Season

GMHBA Health Update | Stanley Nearing Return Ahead of Colossal Preliminary Final

The Geelong Football Club has provided a health update in the lead up to Friday night's Preliminary Final

www.geelongcats.com.au

 

[cats_09]

And are these photos from this week:

 

[Jumping Jack]

I think the club are playing mind games on Stanley to keep Hawthorn guessing.

Unless it was on the very minor side of hamstring strains then I'd be amazed if he was declared fit to play in a cut throat prelim final. As of a week ago people close to him were saying he'd be line ball to play again this season.

Who knows

 

[goyoucatters]

I think the club are playing mind games on Stanley to keep Hawthorn guessing.

Unless it was on the very minor side of hamstring strains then I'd be amazed if he was declared fit to play in a cut throat prelim final. As of a week ago people close to him were saying he'd be line ball to play again this season.

Who knows

I believe we all know. There is next to no chance of him playing this week. But hopefully he might be a consideration for a prospective GF.

 

[JPod_31]

They still forecasting rain?

Yeah looks like there’ll be passing showers throughout the match.

Still in two minds on whether rain will help us or not.

Did see a post before saying that we are ‘elite’ in the rain.

 

[bombersboy]

I think the club are playing mind games on Stanley to keep Hawthorn guessing.

Unless it was on the very minor side of hamstring strains then I'd be amazed if he was declared fit to play in a cut throat prelim final. As of a week ago people close to him were saying he'd be line ball to play again this season.

Who knows

Did the club say he actually strained the hamstring or was it hamstring awareness? Didnt't he come back earlier in the year from a hamstring after missing 2 weeks.

We have been conservative for years now and normally I would not expect us to take a chance. The photo from training shows him putting pressure on the hamstring. A lot depends on the speed he was moving at.

If it was dry I think he would play. If it looks like being wet and slippery then club may prefer to be smaller regardless of whether he is ready.

 

[BotsMaster]

They still forecasting rain?

It's raining today if that helps.

 

[Cataholic]

Yeah looks like there’ll be passing showers throughout the match.

Still in two minds on whether rain will help us or not.

Did see a post before saying that we are ‘elite’ in the rain.

Yeah, I saw that post.

My gut reaction was that rain would slow us down which would play into the Hawk's hands, but the stats in that post said we went ok, so what would I know?!

 

[Jumping Jack]

Did the club say he actually strained the hamstring or was it hamstring awareness? Didnt't he come back earlier in the year from a hamstring after missing 2 weeks.

I'm pretty sure it was a strain but the club was a bit vague on the extent. Reading between the lines on a few player interviews, when Stanley's name came up they weren't exactly giving off positive vibes about him playing a role in the finals. Forget who it was that said, "yeah it's disappointing for Rhys he's had a great year and we're all thinking of him".

At that point I wrote him off.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Yeah, I saw that post.

My gut reaction was that rain would slow us down which would play into the Hawk's hands, but the stats in that post said we went ok, so what would I know?!

I'm not seeing any rain likely in the afternoon or early evening around game time. Looks like some light showers around 10pm onwards and into Saturday morning. A bit can change between now and Friday but looking ok at this stage which I think suits us.

Wind to around 25kmph and gusts up around 55kmph so that might have more of an impact than anything else.

 

[fpm84]

Did the club say he actually strained the hamstring or was it hamstring awareness? Didnt't he come back earlier in the year from a hamstring after missing 2 weeks.

Yes - Rhys was subbed out v Pies in round 8, missed rounds 9 & 10, and returned v Bulldogs in round 11.

The injury report called it a ‘low grade hamstring strain’ and he was listed as 1-2 weeks.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I think the club are playing mind games on Stanley to keep Hawthorn guessing.

Unless it was on the very minor side of hamstring strains then I'd be amazed if he was declared fit to play in a cut throat prelim final. As of a week ago people close to him were saying he'd be line ball to play again this season.

Who knows

If it's actually a test he ain't playing. If it was kind of awareness and he's now unaware then maybe

 

[MisterMarcus]

When did the hatred for Geelong start over at Tigerland? Prior to 2017 you never really heard anything out of them. Then they won some flags, started spewing hatred, and a lot of that hatred was aimed at the Cats for some reason? They beat us in a Grand Final (albeit a Grand Final with an asterisk on it). Hard to know where the hatred came from.

Two reasons IMHO:

1) We dished out some brutal beltings on them over the years. So after the 2017 final there seemed to be a lot of "FiINALLY I fought back against my bully!" mentality going on. Like it was the defining moment of their life that they've come back to ever since.

2) Deep down, they know they aren't as good a 'dynasty side' in the grand scheme of things - they peaked high for 3 years and then it was immediately over like that. Hence their endless defensiveness about us (and Hawthorn), and their increasingly ridiculous "It's not a real dynasty unless you won back to back against Team X on a wet Saturday when Venus was rising in the east" claims about why their short peak was better than teams having a much longer successful run.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Probably clutching at straws here, but I hope the Merrett thing is now becoming a tad distracting to the Hawks' players.

 

[benrushbrook]

I'm trying to find a scenario on how we don't win this by 50+ points. Someone. Please. Bring me back to reality.

 

[Johanpetro]

“Selection shock for Geelong Friday night” according to the Tackle tonight . “Tune in to find out” … wonder if it’s just click bait with Stanley being a test

 

[Cats_R_Cool_4_Ever]

Hoping Stanley can play so blitz can go up the ground for a bit and share ruck duties with him.