AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

[My Tilly]

One thing Geelong supporters should feel nervous about is their lack of exposure to high quality teams.

I thought this was going to be the case before the first week of finals.
But the way we played against Brisbane was as good as 2022. Completely outran and dominated Brisbane in all facets of the game. Should have been a 50 point drubbing if not for inaccurate kicking.

Going to be an thrilling encounter.

I'm backing in Geelong to kick a couple of very late goals as Hawthorn go for broke not wanting to die wondering and in doing so, turn the ball over.

Cats to win by 16 points.

 

[Hawkk]

I think we have a couple of midfielders over 190, so do you.

Where are your KPs? You know, 200 cm.

As for the best defence line, Pies conceded less points and we had a harder fixture than you. Adelaide conceded less points as well.

Hawthorn came in 8th. They have one of the best coaches, and a developing list.

What even is this? Are you drunk???

 

[The Casey Cat]

I thought this was going to be the case before the first week of finals.
But the way we played against Brisbane was as good as 2022. Completely outran and dominated Brisbane in all facets of the game. Should have been a 50 point drubbing if not for inaccurate kicking.

Going to be an thrilling encounter.

I'm backing in Geelong to kick a couple of very late goals as Hawthorn go for broke not wanting to die wondering and in doing so, turn the ball over.

Cats to win by 16 points.

I'd say the reversal and double goal to end the first half saved it from a 50+ point margin. On top of that If Geelong kick better for goal and generally dispose better in our half its 70-80. Was an absolute shellacking really.

 

[sleep]

The home & away season as a whole, HAW, COL & ADE were the top 3 defenses.

• Collingwood - 70.7 points per game conceded
• Adelaide - 71.1 points per game conceded
• Hawthorn - 73.5 points per game conceded

This is very minute in the grand scheme of things, even similarly looking at the last 10 games for goals conceded:

• Hawthorn - 10.1 goals
• Collingwood - 10.5 goals
• Adelaide - 11 goals

* only relevant teams (those four still in plus Adelaide)

Last 5 games:

• Hawthorn - 9.6 goals
• Geelong - 9.8 goals
• Brisbane - 10.2 goals
• Collingwood - 11.8 goals
• Adelaide - 12 goals

Looking at the defenses objectively through stats it’s pretty even, last 5 games Collingwood dropped off (with their form backend of the H&A being mediocre).

Hawthorn behind Adelaide were the best at defending transition from D50 to F50 (season)

• Adelaide - 1st
• Hawthorn - 2nd
• Collingwood - 10th
• Geelong - 11th

Continuing on with the point - Hawthorns ability defensively isn’t just with their defensive capabilities, but also their ability to intercept and turn defense to offense with running half backs/elite ball users.

From an individual perspective - Hawthorn were the only one of the three with an All-Australian defensive selection.

All 3 sides were strong statistically with their ability to defend whilst in one-on-one contests aswell.

1v1 loss percentage %:

• Hawthorn - 22.9%
• Collingwood - 23.6%
• Adelaide - 23.6%

If you look at personnel of defenders and into categories.

Collingwood:
Maynard - Frampton - Howe
J.Daicos - Moore - Quaynor
Houston/Perryman

Adelaide:
Worrell - Murray - Michalanney
Milera - Keane - Laird
Hinge

Hawthorn:
Hardwick - Barrass - Battle
Sicily - Scrimshaw - Amon
Impey/Weddle

(Players subject to multiple categories)

Small/medium lockdown defenders:
Hardwick, Michalanney, Maynard.

Intercept defenders:
Moore, Scrimshaw, Sicily, Worrell, Keane, Barrass, Weddle, Battle, Frampton, Howe.

Rebounding and running defenders:
J.Daicos, Impey, Amon, Quaynor, Houston, Milera, Weddle.

Skillful defenders:
Sicily, J.Daicos, Houston, Scrimshaw, Amon, Quaynor, Milera, Impey, Hinge

Hybrid tall and small defenders:
Battle, Howe, Maynard, Sicily, Scrimshaw, Worrell, Michalanney, Weddle

Key position defenders:
Barrass, Frampton, Moore, Scrimshaw, Keane, Murray, Battle

Can sort of paint your own picture that way.

Love Dewy's analysis - best in the business.


lulz.

 

[hk89]

NGL:

• There's a reason why teams commit the fewest clangers against you. (hint: 51 tackles like last night ain't getting it done against us)

Where do you pull that stat from? According to the stats at footywire, it seems we induce the most number of clangers from the opposition of any club. We also induce the second largest number of turnovers from opposition. Our bigger problem will be absorbing your pressure, which was an issue in our last game (lack of composure under pressure lost us the game, despite a pretty large inside 50 differential in our favour). Applying our own pressure is generally not our problem.

No doubt we're in for a week of people saying "It should be a great game" when it really shouldn't at all. I've got us winning by 45+. There is literally zero reason why this "should be a classic" at all, except that a bunch of games the players are too young to remember.

Literally zero reason? What about the meagre 7 point margin on our last meeting? Or perhaps the bundling out of the minor premiers on their home ground in straight sets? Or our first win in 9 attempts at GWS's home round in the elim? Or the 10 goal thumping of Pies only a few weeks ago?

Cats go in deserved favourites, but there is lot of evidence to say this should be a relatively close game. False bravado by Geelong fans, not being the least of it...

 

[Mr Meow]

Where do you pull that stat from? According to the stats at footywire, it seems we induce the most number of clangers from the opposition of any club. We also induce the second largest number of turnovers from opposition. Our bigger problem will be absorbing your pressure, which was an issue in our last game (lack of composure under pressure lost us the game, despite a pretty large inside 50 differential in our favour). Applying our own pressure is generally not our problem.



Literally zero reason? What about the meagre 7 point margin on our last meeting? Or perhaps the bundling out of the minor premiers on their home ground in straight sets? Or our first win in 9 attempts at GWS's home round in the elim? Or the 10 goal thumping of Pies only a few weeks ago?

Cats go in deserved favourites, but there is lot of evidence to say this should be a relatively close game. False bravado by Geelong fans, not being the least of it...

Yes that one Geelong supporter not rating Hawthorn is definitely going to influence the result.

 

[hk89]

Yes that one Geelong supporter not rating Hawthorn is definitely going to influence the result.

Of course not, I clearly meant that false bravado from Geelong fans was a sign they were worried it was going to be close, hence an indication that it MAY be close. But who knows, perhaps he really believes it will be a massacre. If so, he's probably still proudly wearing his Geelong Premiers 08 tattoo.

 

[Mr Meow]

Of course not, I clearly meant that false bravado from Geelong fans was a sign they were worried it was going to be close, hence an indication that it MAY be close. But who knows, perhaps he really believes it will be a massacre. If so, he's probably still proudly wearing his Geelong Premiers 08 tattoo.

Well I guess that means the stacks of Geelong supporters who are nervous, wary and rate the Hawks threat highly are a sign the Cats will win by 100 points. Except that's not how any of this works. One person thinks their team is comfortably better than another, that's all. Happens every single week. Picking out extreme opinions to represent a supporter base is just lazy. There's plenty of Hawks supporters who think their team is going to win too and it doesn't mean they are scared or delusional.

 

[Spook]

I guess part of the point I was making is that many of us always say this sort of thing but it rarely happens in both games. Since 2014 (22 finals) we've had so many blowouts:

Margins under 2 goals: 8 (1,1,3,4,6, 6 10)
Margins 3 - 6 goals: 4 (16, 19, 27, 35)
Margins over 6 goals: 11 (36, 37, 39, 40, 40, 56, 61, 71, 71, 71, 83)

We all should ignore the past, don’t want to look to hard at Prelims, as Geelongs record since 2013 is lost 6 won 2.

 

[Cyclops]

What even is this? Are you drunk???

"What even is this?"

Asks about sobriety.

 

[Xtreme]

2 more sleeps!

 

[NetworkNerd]

We all should ignore the past, don’t want to look to hard at Prelims, as Geelongs record since 2013 is lost 6 won 2.

In Geelongs golden era they generally only lose prelims when they are outsiders or moderate favourites. Whilst it is interesting that they havent really won many as the outsider (aside from 2020) its not really applicable here. Strong favourites (under 1.60) and they always win. In the Chris Scott era

2011
1.20 heavy favourites
Win v West Coast

2013
3.02 outsiders
Loss v Hawthorn

2016
1.66 favourites
Loss v Sydney

2017
2.85 outsiders
Loss v Adelaide

2019
3.21 outsiders
Loss v Richmond

2020
2.01 outsiders
Win v Brisbane

2021
2.61 outsiders
Loss v Melbourne

2022
1.27 heavy favourites
Win v Brisbane

2024
1.78 favourites
Loss v Brisbane

2025*
currently 1.52 strong favourites

 

[voorhees]

this game does have that feel of Dangerfield and Cameron stepping to the front and guiding the cats home with that mature finals experience.

 

[Osho]

Just like the ol' days.
perhaps the old days never really went away.

Cats have been pristine recently. Hopefully Hawks can make it uncomfortable for them with some coaching manouvres and their effervecence. To make it crackingly close.

Will be interesting to see if the 2 games in 4 weeks thing helps or hindees Geelong. I'd think helps, for fresh bodies, but you never know.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Newcombe getting the hard tag and how he performs with it, what help he gets etc, will have a huge impact on the game.

I think missing Day at the pointy end will come home to roost.

 

[FootyLad0]

Just like the ol' days.
perhaps the old days never really went away.

Cats have been pristine recently. Hopefully Hawks can make it uncomfortable for them with some coaching manouvres and their effervecence. To make it crackingly close.

Will be interesting to see if the 2 games in 4 weeks thing helps or hindees Geelong. I'd think helps, for fresh bodies, but you never know.

Cats had no problem with this in 2022, it only became a thing in 2024 because they lost and Fagan lent into it with his comments...and it was by a very small margin. They were in front with 2 minutes to go, had no bearing on the result.

People just want it to be the case because their emotions colour their opinion.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Couldn't get tickets for me and my mate to this, where in Melb is a good place to go to watch it on a screen with other fans?

Young and Jackson, Mail Exchange Hotel, Exford, Imperial, Lion in MC my go tos in the cbd.

 

[StackedHunch]

Couldn't get tickets for me and my mate to this, where in Melb is a good place to go to watch it on a screen with other fans?

Wherever you go, make sure you're sporting your Zach Merrett badge.

 

[StillAtLarge]

Hope I’m wrong but I’m getting 2000 Carlton v Essendon prelim vibes here. People thinking the magic of the rivalry could propel the underdog to a win based off past finals history.

Like I said, hope I’m wrong

That was one year on from the famous Kouta prelim. Carlton had no Kouta or SOS in the rematch and spuds like Hulme, Porter, Freeborn and Hotton. Bombers had Hird, Lucas, Ramanauskas and Barnes in 2000 instead of guys like Barry Young, Somerville, Prior and Mark Fraser.

We haven't played the Cats in a final since 2016. And the earlier game this year was decided by less than two goals. They are nervous. We can smell their fear. First time they will have been properly tested in nine weeks...

 

[DearJai]

Newcombe getting the hard tag and how he performs with it, what help he gets etc, will have a huge impact on the game.

I think missing Day at the pointy end will come home to roost.

It only comes home to roost if we lose.

There's a lot of water to go under the bridge to determine if that actually happens.

Just like there is 4 quarters to determine if the support cast shows up like they can when they're all at their best.

Peak Worpel, Ward, Nash and then Weddle out on a wing hasn't happened at the same time all year.

What if it does this week? Stranger things have happened.

 

[DearJai]

this game does have that feel of Dangerfield and Cameron stepping to the front and guiding the cats home with that mature finals experience.

Or an Adelaide like down day after months of beating up on teams outside the 8, and having a 1-2 record against teams inside the 8 sides since round 12 (the Brisbane finals win is their only victory against a top 8 opponent in that time).

Hard to believe Geelong only played two top 8 sides in the back half of the season.

The Brisbane game was a fair win no doubt, and that form is recent.

But the Lions barely fired a shot.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It only comes home to roost if we lose.

There's a lot of water to go under the bridge to determine if that actually happens.

Just like there is 4 quarters to determine if the support cast shows up like they can when they're all at their best.

Peak Worpel, Ward, Nash and then Weddle out on a wing hasn't happened at the same time all year.

What if it does this week? Stranger things have happened.

That’s exactly what I’m saying.

It will be a huge effort to get up.

 

[StillAtLarge]

Couldn't get tickets for me and my mate to this, where in Melb is a good place to go to watch it on a screen with other fans?

Go to a pub in Richmond. You'll get a far better atmosphere than anywhere in the City.
Any of the numerous places near Richmond station will suffice but The London Tavern and Corner Hotel are probably the best two. They'll be heaving but plenty will clear out en route to the game

 

[Wojcinski]

That was one year on from the famous Kouta prelim. Carlton had no Kouta or SOS in the rematch and spuds like Hulme, Porter, Freeborn and Hotton. Bombers had Hird, Lucas, Ramanauskas and Barnes in 2000 instead of guys like Barry Young, Somerville, Prior and Mark Fraser.

We haven't played the Cats in a final since 2016. And the earlier game this year was decided by less than two goals. They are nervous. We can smell their fear. First time they will have been properly tested in nine weeks...

if you ignore their last game vs Brisbane, who were at the time premiership favourites or their second last H&A game vs Sydney who were the form team of the league at the time the yes, Cats have not been tested in 9 weeks

 

[QuietB]

2 more sleeps!

What if you have naps as well?