Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[RonnieRaven]

You're only looking at one side of the ledger. Look at the blokes you've recruited as well.

Ordinary teams with a sense that they're not going anywhere lose players. That's just the AFL landscape regardless of state. Whether they're a big Vic club like Carlton and Essendon or the Lions and Freo. The difference is that Freo can still attract them when they're ordinary as there's only two clubs in WA and a lot of players who hail from there.

Player wise, Freo are set for a good period. If they're as good off field as the other clubs with good lists it'll be an excellent period.

I’m confident on where we are going
And we will get there without favour
But it’s a long road that others don’t need to take.

 

[sr36]

I’m confident on where we are going
And we will get there without favour
But it’s a long road that others don’t need to take.

And if you're good and lucky enough you'll stay up for a decent period. When I was young Cats were known as the handbaggers. They were an insipid club. In 2007, they broke a 44 year premiership drought in years with a lot less teams in the comp. It's been a long hard road for most teams to get where they currently are. And even harder to remain there. A period of bad management will put any of the current good teams back down the bottom - where they've all been before. Pies were a train wreck before McGuire and Malthouse righted the ship.

 

[Choogler]

Yeah, and interstate fans still don't realise that with Nick Daicos coming, we traded out our 1st pick to GWS, which would have been pick 2.

And you got 2 early 2nd rounders plus more back which allowed you to effectively double dip by improving your hand in another draft.

I'm a supporter of both FS (and the northern Academies) but the bid matching has to change to stop both double dipping and the compromising of the draft.

Change the system so that clubs with elite FS and Academy kids have to use a pick in the bid round to commence bid matching. No pick, no match! It seems so simple and much fairer as the earliest draft picks will be used on the best kids,

Or that no-one rated Josh Daicos, and we picked him up with pick 57.

Father-sons are available to all clubs. GWS and GC are the 2 that miss out. Maybe clubs need to look at how they support past players' families, and it may be possible that they also land some good father-sons. The Pies have had their fair share of busts as well.

I think your comment about clubs looking after past players maybe leading to landing good F/S is ludicrous.. doesn't matter how well you look after ex-players, if the kids can't play, they can't play. It is all in the genes!

The only time looking after ex-players might make a difference is in a situation like Nick Blakey where he chose Sydney. over NM.

 

[p4p1]

And you got 2 early 2nd rounders plus more back which allowed you to effectively double dip by improving your hand in another draft.

I'm a supporter of both FS (and the northern Academies) but the bid matching has to change to stop both double dipping and the compromising of the draft.

Change the system so that clubs with elite FS and Academy kids have to use a pick in the bid round to commence bid matching. No pick, no match! It seems so simple and much fairer as the earliest draft picks will be used on the best kids,


I think your comment about clubs looking after past players maybe leading to landing good F/S is ludicrous.. doesn't matter how well you look after ex-players, if the kids can't play, they can't play. It is all in the genes!

The only time looking after ex-players might make a difference is in a situation like Nick Blakey where he chose Sydney. over NM.

The problem is, without knowing anything about the ins and outs of how the clubs trade picks etc. Let's say the Eagles have a F/S prospect they know is going to go first round. The could trade down their pick 1 to multiple picks in the first round. One to match and one to draft another player.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

The AFL have really taken things to a new level here. Even promoting the V/AFL here in a Slovenian subway. How far will they go!

 

[doppleganger]

The problem is, without knowing anything about the ins and outs of how the clubs trade picks etc. Let's say the Eagles have a F/S prospect they know is going to go first round. The could trade down their pick 1 to multiple picks in the first round. One to match and one to draft another player.

There will never be a perfect system if you wanting to keep academy / FS as non aligned.

The old one was.just use your next pick,.hence when Heeney was bid on with pick 2 they just used pick 18 to get him...which is clearly again a steal.

All clubs will look to push the boundaries and find loopholes in any rules that are created.

And it really only impacts if you have a kid who is a top 10 style prospect. Nobody cares if someone bids on a player with pick 40, and then the club matches using pick 48 and 59.

 

[sr36]

There will never be a perfect system if you wanting to keep academy / FS as non aligned.

The old one was.just use your next pick,.hence when Heeney was bid on with pick 2 they just used pick 18 to get him...which is clearly again a steal.

All clubs will look to push the boundaries and find loopholes in any rules that are created.

And it really only impacts if you have a kid who is a top 10 style prospect. Nobody cares if someone bids on a player with pick 40, and then the club matches using pick 48 and 59.

The focus always seem to be on the bargains and making sure that teams pay enough, but the purpose of the draft is bottom teams getting the best players as an equalisation measure. It's pick 3 only getting you the 5th best player that's the real issue. It impacts the teams stuck in the bottom half. Even if you work out a system where the matching club pays the full value - the bottom club who bids is still losing.

 

[010203]

Garry Lyon on AFL 360 "if he (Will Ashcroft) was based in Melbourne, we'd celebrate him a lot more".

 

[Humblebob]

Garry Lyon on AFL 360 "if he (Will Ashcroft) was based in Melbourne, we'd celebrate him a lot more".

 

[VinnieB]

And you got 2 early 2nd rounders plus more back which allowed you to effectively double dip by improving your hand in another draft.

I'm a supporter of both FS (and the northern Academies) but the bid matching has to change to stop both double dipping and the compromising of the draft.

Change the system so that clubs with elite FS and Academy kids have to use a pick in the bid round to commence bid matching. No pick, no match! It seems so simple and much fairer as the earliest draft picks will be used on the best kids,


I think your comment about clubs looking after past players maybe leading to landing good F/S is ludicrous.. doesn't matter how well you look after ex-players, if the kids can't play, they can't play. It is all in the genes!

The only time looking after ex-players might make a difference is in a situation like Nick Blakey where he chose Sydney. over NM.

No. I disagree. Take a look at the programs clubs have to involve the kids of families of past players. It’s possible it could play a role in those kids wanting to play footy as opposed to other sports.

I think the role a past player’s club can play in supporting and developing their kids within the club environment could have a positive effect on them, whether it be as an athlete or not.

Why do you think some clubs have more father-son players than others? Maybe it’s luck. If it is, every club will have their time.

But I do agree that using 3 picks in the 40s to match a top 5 FS or Academy player is not right. A club should be forced to use a 1st round pick to match a 1st round pick, and limited to only match on 1 kid per round. Maybe they have to throw in another pick (3rd or 4th round) if they are matching a top 5 player.

I think there is probably a simple solution out there. Not sure not allowing a club to match a FS in the 1st round is the solution. The club who drafts another club’s FS may be hard pressed holding on to them.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Garry Lyon on AFL 360 "if he (Will Ashcroft) was based in Melbourne, we'd celebrate him a lot more".

If Garry Lyon could contort himself into the correct position to lick his own balls, he'd finally have one thing worth paying attention to

 

[Mr Meow]

If Garry Lyon could contort himself into the correct position to lick his own balls, he'd finally have one thing worth paying attention to

Sometimes typing out your fantasies is a bad idea.

 

[doppleganger]

The focus always seem to be on the bargains and making sure that teams pay enough

By having FS and academy's with different access, people just need to accept that if a star like Daicos comes along you are never going to pay "enough".

Pick 4 wouldn't have been "enough" for Daicos.

FS is all about fan engagement and goodwill, the romantic nod of seeing the generational link and sons of club champions playing for the same club as your Dad.

You either like the concept or you don't, it ain't an equalisation measure.

But with most things the AFL butcher it, and actually let kids who's father never played a single game with the Adelaide Crows or West Coast supposedly aligned under the FS rule....just if they played any SANFL/WAFL footy.

The purpose of the draft is bottom teams getting the best players as an equalisation measure.

Academy is about trying to expand the overall talent pool especially up north and then from potential population bases in traditional football environments who may not naturally enter the established pathways.

Great idea, needed for the long term growth of the game, but flawed execution IMHO.

In theory that is true, but the reality is pick 3 is not guaranteed to be a better player than pick 5.

Teams stuck in the bottom half often don't select the right player with their picks anyway, see all the top 10 Suns busts

And not sure GWS not getting Sam Darcy and having to settle for Finn Calaghan, or NM missing out on Ashcroft and settling for Sheezle is a big problem.

Remember that one of the biggest academy "gifts" was meant to be JUH, the Dogs would see him as a gift anymore.

A big factor is clubs actually deciding that their preferred course is to be a development team for 3-4 years...if they get the kids wrong, then they just set themselves on their own course of being shizen for even longer than that.

It is a competition after all, of clubs make mistakes with list management and talent identification they should be stuck down the bottom.

 

[sr36]

In theory that is true, but the reality is pick 3 is not guaranteed to be a better player than pick 5.

Teams stuck in the bottom half often don't select the right player with their picks anyway, see all the top 10 Suns busts

And not sure GWS not getting Sam Darcy and having to settle for Finn Calaghan, or NM missing out on Ashcroft and settling for Sheezle is a big problem.

Remember that one of the biggest academy "gifts" was meant to be JUH, the Dogs would see him as a gift anymore.

A big factor is clubs actually deciding that their preferred course is to be a development team for 3-4 years...if they get the kids wrong, then they just set themselves on their own course of being shizen for even longer than that.

It is a competition after all, of clubs make mistakes with list management and talent identification they should be stuck down the bottom.

Of course it's not guaranteed, but the data in terms of things like games played and brownlow votes, coaches votes is pretty clear. Value drops off quickly at the pointy end of the draft. The DVI isn't by chance, it'll be built on this data - the drop off in value occurs straight away.

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

And the matching system only looks at what is likely to be gained by the matching club - whilst completely ignoring what is lost by the bidding club being pushed back in the draft.

 

[p4p1]

Of course it's not guaranteed, but the data in terms of things like games played and brownlow votes, coaches votes is pretty clear. Value drops off quickly at the pointy end of the draft. The DVI isn't by chance, it'll be built on this data - the drop off in value occurs straight away.

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

And the matching system only looks at what is likely to be gained by the matching club - whilst completely ignoring what is lost by the bidding club being pushed back in the draft.

Is there not a factor of it swinging roundabouts though?
I don't think any club that has had high rated F/S or academy players has kept their first round draft picks. Sometimes trading those and futures for a heap of nothing picks. That first round pick is normally taken by a club that has the trade capital to have a heap of picks to make the points up.
As an example in 2021, The pies didn't have another pick after Daicos until 45. The dogs didn't have another pick until 43. Both of those are third round picks. The Pies and dogs have up their first and second picks to get their guys. I know it probably isn't that simple and future seconds may have been coming the way of both teams.
My team Brisbane got 2 first rounders in 2022 through F/S but had no other picks that year. In 2023 we didn't have a first rounder to use either. So our two first rounders have still cost us 2 first round picks. It is not a like for like cost but there is still a cost there which is still in a long roundabout way making it so you have to give up a first round draft pick + a second round pick to secure an elite draft pick your ladder position wouldn't give you access to.

It appears the clubs that are moaning the loudest are the clubs that have consistently made bad list decisions in multiple areas including the draft, including not being the ones that managed to secure a second first round pick by trading with the team that is looking to bring in a F/S or academy player.

I'm not sure what to make of the draft list link either. It does show that on average the quality increases the better the draft pick but I don't think that tells the whole story either. Someone who knows stats better than myself would have more insight but the sample sizes of 22 or 26 (depending on if you include the most recent drafts or not) compared to 66-78 for picks 3-5 etc.

 

[sr36]

Is there not a factor of it swinging roundabouts though?
I don't think any club that has had high rated F/S or academy players has kept their first round draft picks. Sometimes trading those and futures for a heap of nothing picks. That first round pick is normally taken by a club that has the trade capital to have a heap of picks to make the points up.
As an example in 2021, The pies didn't have another pick after Daicos until 45. The dogs didn't have another pick until 43. Both of those are third round picks. The Pies and dogs have up their first and second picks to get their guys. I know it probably isn't that simple and future seconds may have been coming the way of both teams.
My team Brisbane got 2 first rounders in 2022 through F/S but had no other picks that year. In 2023 we didn't have a first rounder to use either. So our two first rounders have still cost us 2 first round picks. It is not a like for like cost but there is still a cost there which is still in a long roundabout way making it so you have to give up a first round draft pick + a second round pick to secure an elite draft pick your ladder position wouldn't give you access to.

It appears the clubs that are moaning the loudest are the clubs that have consistently made bad list decisions in multiple areas including the draft, including not being the ones that managed to secure a second first round pick by trading with the team that is looking to bring in a F/S or academy player.

I'm not sure what to make of the draft list link either. It does show that on average the quality increases the better the draft pick but I don't think that tells the whole story either. Someone who knows stats better than myself would have more insight but the sample sizes of 22 or 26 (depending on if you include the most recent drafts or not) compared to 66-78 for picks 3-5 etc.

I'm really only talking about the top end.

In that 2021 draft, JHF, Daicos, Darcy and Callaghan were considered the standout prospects and it looks like playing out that way. The teams with picks 3 and 4 don't have access to any of the top 4 picks in the draft. Who knows how North rated the kids, but with pick 1, they didn't have access to the two kids looking likely to be the most influential players from that draft.

Ultimately, matching teams gain if they jump up in the draft to draft a top kid. And those they jump ahead of lose. And it hits the low teams hardest as moving a few spots down at the very top end is a worse outcome than moving down a few spots later in the draft. So the bottom teams are losers when a kid is matchable at the pointy end of the draft.

The data confirms what we already know. Pick 4 is more valuable than pick 6. If we trading for the move, in most drafts it wouldn't be cheap. So in that 2021 draft, matching meant that the team holding pick 4 didn't have access to that outstanding talent in the top 4, their pick was bunted down to 6 and they ended up with Rachelle instead of Callaghan. Which would be the standard type of outcome of getting bunted down a couple of spots in the pointy end of the draft

 

[Grumpyshades]

listening to Gov the other night talking about the 2018 GF.
First the Eagles were threatened with a 50k fine if Gov didn't make the GF parade as he was getting medical treatment for internal bleeding. West Coast decides to pay the fine

Nah nah nah Gill then rings up and tells the Eagles if he doesn't make the parade he doesn't play !
So Gov has to make a mad dash from hospital to the parade while still bleeding

Yeah i'm so sure if it was a star Cwood player in the same position the same threats would have been made. Oh look another pig in the sky


classic VFL

 

[sr36]

listening to Gov the other night talking about the 2018 GF.
First the Eagles were threatened with a 50k fine if Gov didn't make the GF parade as he was getting medical treatment for internal bleeding. West Coast decides to pay the fine

Nah nah nah Gill then rings up and tells the Eagles if he doesn't make the parade he doesn't play !
So Gov has to make a mad dash from hospital to the parade while still bleeding

Yeah i'm so sure if it was a star Cwood player in the same position the same threats would have been made. Oh look another pig in the sky


classic VFL

The beauty of Vicbias theories is that if there is ever a decision you don't like - you can just claim with absolute certainty, despite having no idea, that it would be a totally different decision if it was a Vic club.

 

[Carringbush2010]

listening to Gov the other night talking about the 2018 GF.
First the Eagles were threatened with a 50k fine if Gov didn't make the GF parade as he was getting medical treatment for internal bleeding. West Coast decides to pay the fine

Nah nah nah Gill then rings up and tells the Eagles if he doesn't make the parade he doesn't play !
So Gov has to make a mad dash from hospital to the parade while still bleeding

Yeah i'm so sure if it was a star Cwood player in the same position the same threats would have been made. Oh look another pig in the sky


classic VFL

 

[Grumpyshades]

The beauty of Vicbias theories is that if there is ever a decision you don't like - you can just claim with absolute certainty, despite having no idea, that it would be a totally different decision if it was a Vic club.

or you can just deny everything to protect a lot of Victorians fragile ego's

 

[sr36]

or you can just deny everything to protect a lot of Victorians fragile ego's

I haven't denied anything. I don't know enough about the story you're telling and I have no idea how the AFL would have responded if it was a Pies player - despite your certainty, you don't either.

 

[Grumpyshades]

I haven't denied anything. I don't know enough about the story you're telling and I have no idea how the AFL would have responded if it was a Pies player - despite your certainty, you don't either.

oh yeah they 100% would stop a pendles, sidebottom or daicos type playing in a GF because he was receiving medical treatment

and in other news the world is flat

 

[Pistol Night]

listening to Gov the other night talking about the 2018 GF.
First the Eagles were threatened with a 50k fine if Gov didn't make the GF parade as he was getting medical treatment for internal bleeding. West Coast decides to pay the fine

Nah nah nah Gill then rings up and tells the Eagles if he doesn't make the parade he doesn't play !
So Gov has to make a mad dash from hospital to the parade while still bleeding

Yeah i'm so sure if it was a star Cwood player in the same position the same threats would have been made. Oh look another pig in the sky


classic VFL

Whinging about a GF you won now? Suppose your wallet is too heavy as well and thats Victorias fault

 

[doppleganger]

oh yeah they 100% would stop a pendles, sidebottom or daicos type playing in a GF because he was receiving medical treatment

and in other news the world is flat

What are you blabbering on about?

Can you give an example of when Collingwood was able to withdraw a player from the GF parade to help their preparation for the GF?

In other news a WC wowser is whining again.

 

[sr36]

oh yeah they 100% would stop a pendles, sidebottom or daicos type playing in a GF because he was receiving medical treatment

and in other news the world is flat

I seem to remember Gov playing. I don't think I imagined the mark that will forever be etched in footy folk lore.

Who knows how the AFL would react if the Pies claimed a player wasn't fit enough to sit in a car driving through the streets on Friday but was capable of playing in a Grand Final on Saturday. I suspect they'd give it the respect it deserves ...

You Non-Vic folk should be barracking for the Pies to make the Granny - we deliver crackers - do you really want to see a Sydney, Port or GWS no show again - or a 2010,18,23 thriller.