AFL 2025 Brownlow

[Billionaire Panda]

Tom Liberatore is value 15+ @2.25. Even a top 20. Dogs votes last year were peculiar. Convinced it was a deliberate and coordinated decision to mark Bont really harshly after putting him in the mix over the previous decade really. There was some attempt early on last year to reward Libba more and then that became operation reward Treloar. This year without Bont in the first 5 they're probably looking at either Richards or Libba and I think it could go either way. Richards well found in the market but I have them closer together with Libba edging ahead (Bont beating them both ultimately). Also the real possibility that Bont gets shafted again this year purely from them thinking he's missed too many so let's reward the other dogs mids. Although his return game against the Saints was so huge it made everyone question whether he could actually still win it.

Richards' hype really began closer to round 10 with the number 1 ranked player stat and he could poll better in the 2nd half but I think most of Libba's votes come in the first half of season, and then he just has so many solid games where if they want to reward the proper in and under clearance guy he could be the man. I'd have him like $1.50 for 15+ (Richards is $1.25) Their O/U is 93.5 so all 3 could get in.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Some faves on sbet teams still look "ok" val.
Can get 2.92 for Hughy, serong, bont, heeney, nuke.
Same is 2.22 on tab.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Serong will get a lot of 3s
But will miss out on 2s and 1s in our losses and will fall short I think.
Being the number 1 centre clearance player in the comp is in his favour judging from recent past winners.

 

[Mozza Mail]

Few 3 vote game bets I'm keen on

Sidey R1 @ 3
Hipwood R5 @ 3.5
Sharman R8 @ 6
Kozzie R10 @ 11
Rankine R22 as said earlier

to poll a vote multi: taylor, mackenzie, ah chee, hough and sanders @ 4.91 tab. anyone have josh ward polling in r13 or r19 i don't mind 2s on offer

have baz outright and hewett to win blues count at big odds

 

[pendlebury_10]

Still no BYO markets from SB, perhaps the best exotics to bet on in recent years

 

[Slugger Jones]

Will everyone be using PointsBet’s Brownlow boost mode? Increased odds 2-3 hrs pre-count

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Tom Liberatore is value 15+ @2.25. Even a top 20. Dogs votes last year were peculiar. Convinced it was a deliberate and coordinated decision to mark Bont really harshly after putting him in the mix over the previous decade really. There was some attempt early on last year to reward Libba more and then that became operation reward Treloar. This year without Bont in the first 5 they're probably looking at either Richards or Libba and I think it could go either way. Richards well found in the market but I have them closer together with Libba edging ahead (Bont beating them both ultimately). Also the real possibility that Bont gets shafted again this year purely from them thinking he's missed too many so let's reward the other dogs mids. Although his return game against the Saints was so huge it made everyone question whether he could actually still win it.

Richards' hype really began closer to round 10 with the number 1 ranked player stat and he could poll better in the 2nd half but I think most of Libba's votes come in the first half of season, and then he just has so many solid games where if they want to reward the proper in and under clearance guy he could be the man. I'd have him like $1.50 for 15+ (Richards is $1.25) Their O/U is 93.5 so all 3 could get in.

BetR allowing Multis of Round Leaders with Votes polled. Decided to add Libba to 2 other legs.

Libba 15+ Votes, Gawn 20+ Votes, Rowell to be Leader at End of Round 6

Odds: $60

My tally has Rowell at worst tieing this group. Think rucks buck the trend of previous counts and do OK this year. The rucks all made a noise this season, so umps will notice.

 

[Slugger Jones]

BetR allowing Multis of Round Leaders with Votes polled. Decided to add Libba to 2 other legs.

Libba 15+ Votes, Gawn 20+ Votes, Rowell to be Leader at End of Round 6

Odds: $60

My tally has Rowell at worst tieing this group. Think rucks buck the trend of previous counts and do OK this year. The rucks all made a noise this season, so umps will notice.

I like that last comment, always a trend from count to count, personally hope it’s not rucks polling as I have no $$$ on it!
Will Bont/Neale over poll this year after they got shafted the year previous?

 

[Rank]

Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

32

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

to poll 20 votes @6 looks to be value, could easily poll in 10 games just depends on how many 3s and 2s he gets. Polled 16 last year

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

I like that last comment, always a trend from count to count, personally hope it’s not rucks polling as I have no $$$ on it!
Will Bont/Neale over poll this year after they got shafted the year previous?

Your right , the recency bias is there. I dont want to put all my eggs in one basket on the rucks but Gawn, Grundy, Jackson, Xerri seemed to be the 'noise' all season. Can understand anyone wanting to stay from them. Gawn lost the Demons Top votes last season, again pretty sure he was short odds to win it and lost it.

 

[NSWCROW]

Randoms

( to poll a vote )

Rd2
Battle v Carlton
Burgoyne v Richmond
Chandler v Nth Melb ( Powell to get the 3 )

Rd3
Davidson v Carlton


Rd4
Hayward v Nth Melb

Rd5
Ah Chee v WB

Rd7
Rivers v Richmond
Freijah v Gws
H Reid v Hawthorn

Rd9
Haynes v stk

Rd10
Blicavs v Port
Hough v stk

Rd14
O'Brien v Hawthorn

Rd16
Melksham v GC

Rd17
M Hall v Hawthorn
Peatling v Melb

Rd18
Wilmot v Carlton
Rowbottom v stk


Rd19
sweet v Hawthorn
Blakey v Nth Melb
Carroll v Melb

Rd20
Davies v Bris
Vlastuin v Coll

Rd21
Keane v Haw

Rd22
Evans v GC

 

[pendlebury_10]

Here's my take on the Team Votes Multis:

Locks
Merrett
Smith
Green
Newcombe
Gawn
Butters
Taranto
Heeney
Bont

Value
Thilthorpe
J Daicos

Roughie
Cripps
Macrae
H Reid
LDU

Steer Clear
McCluggage
Serong
Anderson
Xerri

 

[Slugger Jones]

Randoms

( to poll a vote )

Rd2
Battle v Carlton
Burgoyne v Richmond
Chandler v Nth Melb ( Powell to get the 3 )

Rd3
Davidson v Carlton


Rd4
Hayward v Nth Melb

Rd5
Ah Chee v WB

Rd7
Rivers v Richmond
Freijah v Gws
H Reid v Hawthorn

Rd9
Haynes v stk

Rd10
Blicavs v Port
Hough v stk

Rd14
O'Brien v Hawthorn

Rd16
Melksham v GC

Rd17
M Hall v Hawthorn
Peatling v Melb

Rd18
Wilmot v Carlton
Rowbottom v stk


Rd19
sweet v Hawthorn
Blakey v Nth Melb
Carroll v Melb

Rd20
Davies v Bris
Vlastuin v Coll

Rd21
Keane v Haw

Rd22
Evans v GC

Here's my take on the Team Votes Multis:

Locks
Merrett
Smith
Green
Newcombe
Gawn
Butters
Taranto
Heeney
Bont

Value
Thilthorpe
J Daicos

Roughie
Cripps
Macrae
H Reid
LDU

Steer Clear
McCluggage
Serong
Anderson
Xerri

Besides teams what are your top bets for tonight?

I recognise your profile (mainly profile picture ) from previous years.

 

[NSWCROW]

Besides teams what are your top bets for tonight?

I recognise your profile (mainly profile picture ) from previous years.

Mcluggage & Bont top 3 at @18's sticking out like the proverbial

McCarthy $5 and Blicavs $4.60 to poll a vote

Neale $8 to poll 20 or more ( i have him on 21 )


Got on Rowell to win @10 about a month ago

 

[Ed_Gein]

Couple of cheeky one's.

Zach Merrett finish top-10 $5 @ $51
Serong outright win $2 @ $41
Bontempelli top-5 finish $8 @ $6

Really banking on Merrett being by far Bombers best players to pinch enough votes despite all the losses to snag top-10, haha.

 

[NSWCROW]

NM

15 - Xerri
6 - sheezel / Powell
4 - McKercher
2 - LDU / Parker
1 - Curtis / Daniel

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Rowell Trio 2
Petracca Trio 10

Multi paying $5.25 TAB

 

[NSWCROW]

ADEL

14 - Dawson
12 - Thilthorpe
11 - soligo
7 - Rankine / O'Brien
6 - Keays
5 - Keane
4 - Curtin
3 - Laird
2 - Worrell / Rachele
1 - Peatling / Neal-Bullen

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

ADEL

14 - Dawson
12 - Thilthorpe
11 - soligo
7 - Rankine / O'Brien
6 - Keays
5 - Keane
4 - Curtin
3 - Laird
2 - Worrell / Rachele
1 - Peatling / Neal-Bullen

Just the 75 votes combined? Not sure if there is a mistake or typo with Dawson? 24? something in the 20s?

 

[NSWCROW]

Gws

20 - Callaghan / T Green
13 - T Greene
8 - Cadman / Hogan
5 - Whitfield / Ash
2 - J Kelly / D Jones / stringer
1 - s Taylor

 

[NSWCROW]

Just the 75 votes combined? Not sure if there is a mistake or typo with Dawson? 24? something in the 20s?

No typo

I'm either horribly wrong or horribly right on this one.
I just think the team improved around Dawson this year

 

[NSWCROW]

Bris

24 - Neale
21 - Mcluggage
15 - Dunkley / W Ashcroft
11 - Bailey
5 - Zorko
2 - L Ashcroft / Ah Chee / Fletcher / Morris
1 - Wilmot

 

[NSWCROW]

Carl

18 - Hewett
11 - TDK
7 - McKay
6 - Cripps
5 - Cerra / Walsh
3 - Evans
2 - Haynes / Carroll
1 - Curnow / Williams

 

[NonPhixion]

Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

to win outright looks value to me

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Tom Green to win outright looks value to me

Yeah potential is quite high