Recommitted Sam Butler [Re-Signed to 2027]

[Guardian Hawk]

So far I’ve read that Merrett is worth less than pick 8 and 2 young, but average half forwards.. then to follow that up Worpel is worth a first rounder.

That’d put them at about the same value, which is an absolutely ridiculous stance to take.

Whilst I don't agree with the views you are "quoting", they are not even close to comparable valuations at all.

For starters, pick 8 and pick 18 are not close in value whatsoever. You normally need multiple (i.e. 3) late teen picks to move into the top 10. Look at past pick swaps to move up the order inside the top 10. It's usually been 3 firsts or 2 firsts and an early second, etc. So we're already talking about approximately triple the value here.

Then, you are adding in a top 7 pick from 2022 who is 21 and shown some great signs at AFL level - who you seem to valuing as nothing in the trade. Before he broke his hand, he was averaging 20 disposals, 6 tackles and 4 clearances as a low TOG midfield rotation. He'd also had games like the GWS one, where he starred, collecting 3 Brownlow votes in a come from behind close win over a top midfield. On the market in this draft, he'd be commanding an early second at worst IMO, now making the Merrett valuation approximately 4x the Worpel one.

Then we are also adding Butler, which we believe your team is throwing 4 years and reasonable coin at. A 22 year old player that now looks to be best 22 at a Prelim finallist. Probably worth a mid second rounder himself.

Mot sure how you've concluded that those trades are "about the same value". They're not remotely close.

 

[Coasters7]

Like thinking Oscar Allen is worth pick 2. Sometimes the AFL takes a massive integrity hit for the sake of pretending no priority picks were given.

I wouldnt want to let Butler go for less than a 1st round pick. I hope he stays rather than wastes his potential for more money.

Not sure what the FA rules have to do with an uncontracted player. Allen is absolutely not worth pick 2 but he is worth a first rounder and the rules put that at pick 2 this year.

Butlers value is at its absolute lowest right now. Similar scenario with us and Chesser. You just don’t get anything good back in these deals despite them having a bit of potential.

Butlers played VFL for 4 years and 3 good games at the end of his contract. He’s worth a second rounder at best. These sorts of ones you just hope they don’t request a move because it’s always a token pick which doesn’t represent their true value.

 

[Coasters7]

Pick 8 is very different to an end of round 1 pick, and in any case, that would be FA compensation, not a trade. The bombers say the 2 young average half-forwards are worth nothing, so I'm not sure they are about the same value.

Supporters always overvalue their own and devalue others.

I wouldn’t even say they’re in the same ballpark of player though. Did forget Worpel was a FA.

But saying you wouldn’t give up pick 8 and CMac or Butler for Merrett is crazy talk. I’d give up pick 8, both of those, plus Hustwaite for Merrett. Those 3 players add pretty much nothing to any trade.

 

[TONYC3163]

I wouldn’t even say they’re in the same ballpark of player though. Did forget Worpel was a FA.

But saying you wouldn’t give up pick 8 and CMac or Butler for Merrett is crazy talk. I’d give up pick 8, both of those, plus Hustwaite for Merrett. Those 3 players add pretty much nothing to any trade.

Once again, an example of why we are all relieved BF randoms aren’t List Mnagers.

 

[Coasters7]

Once again, an example of why we are all relieved BF randoms aren’t List Mnagers.

Those 3 players are worth late seconds/third rounders in any individual trade.

They add nothing to a trade for a superstar mid. 2 of them are VFL players and the other is a system player who is hot and cold. I know Ginnivan went for unders but that sort of tells you where the value for those sorts of players sits.

 

[Burtman]

Those 3 players are worth late seconds/third rounders in any individual trade.

They add nothing to a trade for a superstar mid. 2 of them are VFL players and the other is a system player who is hot and cold. I know Ginnivan went for unders but that sort of tells you where the value for those sorts of players sits.

Ok sweet we’ll keep butler and McKenzie and send 2 third rounders to them.

 

[Shueygod]

Ok sweet we’ll keep butler and McKenzie and send 2 third rounders to them.

Birdmam why would Butler be worth more than Lipinski at the time he was traded?

 

[Burtman]

Birdmam why would Butler be worth more than Lipinski at the time he was traded?

Then we don’t trade him, that’s fine

 

[Shueygod]

Then we don’t trade him, that’s fine

This whole thread is on the assumption he wants to leave for a better contract/more opportunity.

Obviously if that’s not the case then Hawks keep him as he is more valuable to them than he’d be in a trade.

 

[Burtman]

This whole thread is on the assumption he wants to leave for a better contract/more opportunity.

Obviously if that’s not the case then Hawks keep him as he is more valuable to them than he’d be in a trade.

Well he played all 3 of our finals so opportunity shouldn’t be a concern. If someone blows us out of the water with a big deal then yeah go for it, but that impacts his trade value

 

[Coasters7]

Ok sweet we’ll keep butler and McKenzie and send 2 third rounders to them.

If that’s the price then I’d absolutely be doing that because those two are at their lowest value and should only increase.

Problem is, Merrett isn’t going for pick 8 and 2 picks in the 30s-40s.

 

[Mutineer]

Well he played all 3 of our finals so opportunity shouldn’t be a concern. If someone blows us out of the water with a big deal then yeah go for it, but that impacts his trade value

How does that impact Sam's trade value exactly, he's not a free agent or even a restricted free agent?

 

[Shueygod]

Well he played all 3 of our finals so opportunity shouldn’t be a concern. If someone blows us out of the water with a big deal then yeah go for it, but that impacts his trade value

He was subbed in the third, there’s a difference between being pigeonholed in a SF role and getting midfield time as well (see Simpkin), opportunity doesn’t necessarily just refer to being named on the team sheet.

Considering the Hawks are offering 2 years on what I presume is mediocre money, I’m not sure it will take a “big deal” that would impact “trade value”.

Hopefully for the Hawks sake he doesn’t want to leave.

 

[bzparkes]

I hope he stays rather than wastes his potential for more money.

Like former players say "You're a long time retired."

 

[Burtman]

How does that impact Sam's trade value exactly, he's not a free agent or even a restricted free agent?

Because generally the bigger the offer the more sort after the player is, not hard to understand really

 

[Davo-27]

I'd take the 2nd rounder, other than tackling has been disappointing imo, I didn't want us drafting him so is as predicted, useful depth, might find a better role for him at another club?

 

[Burtman]

He was subbed in the third, there’s a difference between being pigeonholed in a SF role and getting midfield time as well (see Simpkin), opportunity doesn’t necessarily just refer to being named on the team sheet.

Considering the Hawks are offering 2 years on what I presume is mediocre money, I’m not sure it will take a “big deal” that would impact “trade value”.

Hopefully for the Hawks sake he doesn’t want to leave.

Honestly at this point he doesn’t get a starting mid role in any team in the league, he could however be a very good hhf/mid. So if a team is promising him a start in the midfield they’re either lying or putrid in the midfield

 

[Burtman]

If that’s the price then I’d absolutely be doing that because those two are at their lowest value and should only increase.

Problem is, Merrett isn’t going for pick 8 and 2 picks in the 30s-40s.

But what you’ve all been saying is they’re worth 3rd rounders, and if that’s the case I’d rather keep them and send 3rd rounders. Hell I’d even throw in a second rounder instead so they get more value than what the players are worth

 

[bzparkes]

Then we don’t trade him, that’s fine

He's uncontracted, you don't get to 'keep' him unless he decides to re-sign.

 

[Mutineer]

Because generally the bigger the offer the more sort after the player is, not hard to understand really

Wrong it depends on how bad the Hawks want to keep him (if against the players will) and how bad West Coast want the player. Simp;e really, in most cases the player gets to where they want in that scenario with club's usually meeting somewhere in the middle. Out of contract so Hawks don't have a lot of leverage.

 

[leighmo]

I'd take the 2nd rounder, other than tackling has been disappointing imo, I didn't want us drafting him so is as predicted, useful depth, might find a better role for him at another club?

WC’s second rounder or Hawks’?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Its Dev Robertson 2.0 this a little bit also. The loser step is to stay at Hawthorn and take the lesser role. To not test yourself in the midfield, to pigeonhole yourself as 1 type of player forever and seemingly hope injuries occur so you get a chance at AFL level (he isnt best 22 and was in because of injury)

He should leave and try to become a midfielder then quit on himself and be a HFF for life

 

[Burtman]

Wrong it depends on how bad the Hawks want to keep him (if against the players will) and how bad West Coast want the player. Simp;e really, in most cases the player gets to where they want in that scenario with club's usually meeting somewhere in the middle. Out of contract so Hawks don't have a lot of leverage.

Well we’ve got an offer in front of him, I’m sure it’s being worked on, the eagles is apparently 4 years, so I’d suggest they want him as you don’t hand out 4 years deals to players you don’t rate

 

[Shueygod]

But what you’ve all been saying is they’re worth 3rd rounders, and if that’s the case I’d rather keep them and send 3rd rounders. Hell I’d even throw in a second rounder instead so they get more value than what the players are worth

You seem to not understand the difference between value and what they’re worth on the trade table (Mackenzie is different to Butler although same concept).

Players are “worth” more than they get traded for all the time, due to a number of factors.

In Butlers (and Chessers) case, if they want out they’ll be traded for less than they’re worth due to not having production across 4 year in the AFL and being out of contract.

Butler may be worth an early 2nd to the Hawks, but he wouldn’t fetch that as the eagles would say why pay that for an early 2nd that’s had 2 good games at AFL level in 4 years.

I’d be keen on you finding me just one example of a player producing less at AFL level across 4 or more years and being traded for a pick within 30.

 

[Burtman]

You seem to not understand the difference between value and what they’re worth on the trade table (Mackenzie is different to Butler although same concept).

Players are “worth” more than they get traded for all the time, due to a number of factors.

In Butlers (and Chessers) case, if they want out they’ll be traded for less than they’re worth due to not having production across 4 year in the AFL and being out of contract.

Butler may be worth an early 2nd to the Hawks, but he wouldn’t fetch that as the eagles would say why pay that for an early 2nd that’s had 2 good games at AFL level in 4 years.

Totally understand that, but the reason he hasn’t played more and produced more at afl level is because of a horrific leg break. He broke back into the team this year then went out with leg soreness, then worked his way back into the team for 3 finals. You’ve offered 4 years so you can’t really say he’s no good and not worth anything. TBH I think we end up tacking a third year on and all of this is a mute point