Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 8 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[_Mike_]

Opposition supporters coming to troll , you have been warned

 

[geoffjennings79]

free agent compensation roots?

Hmmmm, would explain a few things.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Youve got to be worried about Sanders defecting to Tassie. He had the chance to be unequivocal about it and he equivocated. His own words : he has 'a decision to make'.
If this eventuates, then its a mini-disaster. Opportunity cost massive

Not really. If he decides to go to Tassie then we just need to be smart about what we do with the compensation we get in return. That he's played a completely straight bat to questions about his future shouldn't be much of a surprise. It's the trump card he holds in any future contract negotiation he may have with the club. One that will only increase in value if he becomes the player he was recruited to be.

Hes playing exactly the same hand as all players hold in the lead up to their free agency contract.

Its just that his advantage is the possibility of a Tasmanian team joining in 2028.

Best case scenario, he has a really honest conversation with the club some time soon which helps us plan what to do with him, one way or the other.

The best case scenario is one in which he commits to the club and becomes the player we recruited him to be.

The fact that anyone IS interested in a player that might defect in a couple of years is interesting in itself -- it presents us with a possible trade option that frankly, Im suprised about.

Perhaps they see the pull of Sanders or any other Tasmanian returning home as being overstated.

Thats assuming that the entire boondoggle actually gets of the ground in the first place.

I guess from crows POV if they could get him for a late first round or so, and bolster their midfield for a few years with semi-mature recruit, then get turn that into a tasty pick from tassie...yeah, that is a lot more palatable for them than us spending 4 years turning pick 6 into ... pick 6.

If thats their strategy it's a pretty stupid one from a list management point of view. Theres no way that their interest (such as it is) is so short term. They'd be looking at him in the belief that if he came across it'd be with an assurance that he wouldn't leave for Tasmania. I find it difficult to believe that if Sanders' intent is to move to Tas, that he'd want to uproot his life in Melbourne for two years. When he can just sit on his hands and leave when they enter the comp.

 

[Doggy]

Carltank supporters have Butters going there now.

 

[TiAn_]

Bevo has been off that particular high horse for a while. Admitted to meeting with Matt Rowell before he re-signed.

Nah, he met with Rowell during the offseason.

 

[Mutt]

I just find it hard to believe any team would be interested in Sanders given his looming contract status.

Sanders would have to be prepared to sign something like a 5-year deal to the new club; otherwise, they aren't likely to take the risk (unless they know something I don't about concessions to teams giving up players to Tassie).

 

[Shacf501]

while we are waiting on more trade news...

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/geelong-hit-with-77k-afl-fine-over-thirdparty-deals/news-story/4c74c855ef2717d0140e4f085310615c

 

[BigFloppa]

Crazy to think that if we don't re-sign JJ, the only players left on our list who played in the 2016 Grand Final will be Bont, Libba and Zak Jones

3

Zak Jones

Age

30

Ht

182cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.8

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.1

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.1

4star

CL

4.9

5star

D

7.0

2star

K

2.8

1star

HB

4.2

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.6

4star

CL

1.0

3star

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I don't see the functional difference between Sanders going to Tassie immediately as they enter the league and going there a couple of years later. I get that Tassie can recruit out of contract players freely as if they were free agents before they have 8 years, but with their draft hand, the mini draft and trading for future picks, they'll have a draft haul to get him a few years into Tasmania's existence anyway.

 

[MaxiBont]

Twomey on Gettable saying he doesn’t see us letting Sanders go.

I think Sanders has a big season next year and cements himself in our midfield.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Apparently Carlton have pick 40 on the table for Buku- Riley Beveridge

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Apparently Carlton have pick 40 on the table for Buku- Riley Beveridge

In a weak draft that's basically worthless - they may as well be offering pick 70.

In that case we're better off just holding onto him for depth.

Pay up if you recruit a contracted player Carlton

 

[Foxman98]

Apparently Carlton have pick 40 on the table for Buku- Riley Beveridge

Weren't we delusional on the main board for saying it'll be that?

 

[Bulldogs85]

Weren't we delusional on the main board for saying it'll be that?

Pretty sure you copped it on the main board when you mentioned what it will cost

 

[Foxman98]

Pretty sure you copped it on the main board when you mentioned what it will cost

Was always going to be the pick to get it done,

We will do the right thing by him but weren't going to get completely ****ed and despite the fact they try and argue he was a VFL player he was important depth for the 31 games he played over the last 2 years

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Apparently Carlton have pick 40 on the table for Buku- Riley Beveridge

If that's where they're starting I'm quietly confident we get a decent return for him as a contracted player. In a vacuum the value is probably about right and we can push for more given his contracted status and being in the top ~30 of our depth chart.

 

[TiAn_]

Apparently Carlton have pick 40 on the table for Buku- Riley Beveridge

Seems about right.

Will help us get in the mix to trade up.

Our current picks 10, 32 and 40 would be worth 1,848 points.

GC current pick 6 is worth 1,659
GC current pick 7 is worth 1,543

 

[DognBones]

Apparently Carlton have pick 40 on the table for Buku- Riley Beveridge

If true, I reckon we'll take it. Not that I think that it's entirely fair but just going on the market of players moving so far. Pick 40 is now a late 2nd Rounder and very close to Khamis' value.

 

[TiAn_]

If that's where they're starting I'm quietly confident we get a decent return for him as a contracted player. In a vacuum the value is probably about right and we can push for more given his contracted status and being in the top ~30 of our depth chart.

Agree. What I’d be waiting on is for Carlton to trade their pick 9 back for 2-3 picks in the 20-30 range (e.g. Bombers 20, 26 & 29) and seeing what we can push them for by the deadline.

 

[stefoid]

Not really. If he decides to go to Tassie then we just need to be smart about what we do with the compensation we get in return. That he's played a completely straight bat to questions about his future shouldn't be much of a surprise. It's the trump card he holds in any future contract negotiation he may have with the club. One that will only increase in value if he becomes the player he was recruited to be.

Playing a straight bat isnt - "I need to make a decision". that would be the old "Im very happy at the <insert club here>" that gets trotted out. "I need to make a decision" is an unfiltered response that means exactly what it says.

Compo is better than nothing, but its 4 years of investment in a player wasted. And in this instance its easy to work out what the opportunity cost was -> four years dev of a late first round pick from 23 and three years dev of Murphy Reid from 24.

 

[manutd/dogs]

while we are waiting on more trade news...

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/geelong-hit-with-77k-afl-fine-over-thirdparty-deals/news-story/4c74c855ef2717d0140e4f085310615c

"Administrative errors" my effing ballsack. 37k fine is a joke.

 

[W W Biscuit]

Does anyone think that Brayden Fiorini

8

Brayden Fiorini

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.9

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

9.1

5star

M

4.7

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

16.3

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

5.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

21.2

5star

K

10.2

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

4.2

5star

CL

3.2

5star

will move the needle for Essendon?

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Playing a straight bat isnt - "I need to make a decision", its the old "Im very happy at the <insert club here>" that gets trotted out. "I need to make a decision" is an unfiltered response that means exactly what it says.

Im not sure why anybody would hold Sanders to a different standard of contract negotiation to any other player coming out of contract. But here we are.

Compo is better than nothing, but its 4 years of investment in a player wasted.
And in this instance it's easy to work out what the opportunity cost was -> four years dev of a late first round pick from 23 and three years dev of Murphy Reid from 24.

No its the known of 4 years of service out of a guy who one would expect to exceed what his produced thus far in his career. For the next two at least. Weighed against the unknown of the magic beans of a draft selection.

Anyways...We're going around in pointlessly boring circles now.

When Sanders asks for a trade. I'll come back to the topic and people can claim their pound of flesh.

And if he doesn't I'll just laugh at the ridiculousness of it all.

 

[Dogs Rule]

"Administrative errors" my effing ballsack. 37k fine is a joke.

Imagine if we were Carlton supporters and reacting to that after what happened (and rightly so) to their club in 2002.

In plain sight, Geelong, and the AFL has shown it doesn't give a flying f***, so an open invitation for every other club to do it and then point to Geelong's 'penalty'.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Agree. What I’d be waiting on is for Carlton to trade their pick 9 back for 2-3 picks in the 20-30 range (e.g. Bombers 20, 26 & 29) and seeing what we can push them for by the deadline.

My expectation has always been that the deal probably ends up being a pick upgrade, something to the effect of, Khamis + 32 + future fourth -> 21.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Does anyone think that Brayden Fiorini will move the needle for Essendon?

Do you mean away from the arms of their players?