Where does Hawthorn rank in terms of supporter base size?

[Philth]

Memberships aren't worth what they use to be. They are basically glorified mailing lists these days and Melbourne teams need to go hard to try and to pump up their numbers. Hawks aren't the same size as the other big 4, hence the need to go to Tassie.

If you carve up the Vic 7m into teams, I think you'll find Hawks share is under what Freo get since the Pies are huge and combined with the other big 4 probably make up 2/3rds of the market. Tassie is adding a 100K max to the Hawks fan base since you play in Launceston.


I don't. My shonky maths recons if you were carving up the state and assumed everybody followed footy then it's 2m WC, 1m Freo. SA probably has a similar carve up and its 1.2m Adelaide & 600K Port.

Yeah I think similar re WA. Of footy supporters -

60% Eagles
35% Dockers
5% other.

Fremantle are big and getting bigger.
Sustained onfield success will see them become a real powerhouse of the AFL.

 

[Hawkk]

Memberships aren't worth what they use to be. They are basically glorified mailing lists these days and Melbourne teams need to go hard to try and to pump up their numbers.

I agree with this — especially post COVID.

Hawks aren't the same size as the other big 4, hence the need to go to Tassie.

Hawthorn’s decision to go into Tasmania was and is complex — it wasn’t club size related but a reluctance at the time for the club administration to play at Docklands. By the time the stadium returns improved (2010), they were making bank in Tasmania. I hate the games (because it ruins our scheduling around the games) but it is an absolute cash cow for the club.

Interestingly, Hawthorn’s Docklands attendances have been pretty good - take away Covid and they average 36,000 at the venue since 2010.

If you carve up the Vic 7m into teams, I think you'll find Hawks share is under what Freo get since the Pies are huge and combined with the other big 4 probably make up 2/3rds of the market. Tassie is adding a 100K max to the Hawks fan base since you play in Launceston.

I think you are greatly over stating that. And here’s why. Below is the Super Coach registrations, which give a pretty good indication regarding the Victorian pie.

1. Collingwood 22,922
2. Essendon 20,587
3. Carlton 17,604
4. Richmond 14,991
5. Hawthorn 14,968
6. Geelong 13,241
7. North Melbourne 8,252
8. St Kilda 8,140
9. W Bulldogs 7,503
10. Sydney 7,163
11. Melbourne 6,526
12. Brisbane 6,523
13. Adelaide 5,848
14. West Coast 5,304
15. Port Adelaide 3,529
16. Fremantle 2,893
17. GWS Giants 1,645
18. Gold Coast 1,107

Another good example is the club support amongst the MCC (about 132,000 members). Given it takes 25 to 30 years to become a member it’s a pretty good indicator of long term support.



Obviously Melbourne is much higher represented than the norm, but take the Dees out of the equation and that’s a pretty much spot on for club support in Victoria. The Big 4 make up 55-60 per cent of the Victorian pie. The big drop off is actually from Geelong to St Kilda, Melbourne, W Bulldogs, North, Sydney and Brisbane (so it’s really a big 6 and a smaller 6).

Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, Hawthorn and Geelong make up about 70% of MCC members, club members, social media ‘fans,’ local attendance and revenue. That’s the real divide in Victoria and has been for 30 plus years.

 

[Purple Suit]

I agree with this — especially post COVID.


Hawthorn’s decision to go into Tasmania was and is complex — it wasn’t club size related but a reluctance at the time for the club administration to play at Docklands. By the time the stadium returns improved (2010), they were making bank in Tasmania. I hate the games (because it ruins our scheduling around the games) but it is an absolute cash cow for the club.

Interestingly, Hawthorn’s Docklands attendances have been pretty good - take away Covid and they average 36,000 at the venue since 2010.


I think you are greatly over stating that. And here’s why. Below is the Super Coach registrations, which give a pretty good indication regarding the Victorian pie.

1. Collingwood 22,922
2. Essendon 20,587
3. Carlton 17,604
4. Richmond 14,991
5. Hawthorn 14,968
6. Geelong 13,241
7. North Melbourne 8,252
8. St Kilda 8,140
9. W Bulldogs 7,503
10. Sydney 7,163
11. Melbourne 6,526
12. Brisbane 6,523
13. Adelaide 5,848
14. West Coast 5,304
15. Port Adelaide 3,529
16. Fremantle 2,893
17. GWS Giants 1,645
18. Gold Coast 1,107

Another good example is the club support amongst the MCC (about 132,000 members). Given it takes 25 to 30 years to become a member it’s a pretty good indicator of long term support.

View attachment 2463372

Obviously Melbourne is much higher represented than the norm, but take the Dees out of the equation and that’s a pretty much spot on for club support in Victoria. The Big 4 make up 55-60 per cent of the Victorian pie. The big drop off is actually from Geelong to St Kilda, Melbourne, W Bulldogs, North, Sydney and Brisbane (so it’s really a big 6 and a smaller 6).

Collingwood, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, Hawthorn and Geelong make up about 70% of MCC members, club members, social media ‘fans,’ local attendance and revenue. That’s the real divide in Victoria and has been for 30 plus years.

You seem to be linking some very strange references to determine who has the most supporters when attendance is the best one, specifically home attendance against interstate clubs where you don't have the opposition fill half the stand for you.

Supercoach is a very strange metric, as is MCC members. Social media metrics also does cover the older supporter bases like the WC Chardonnay set very well even though there are millions of them and they have paid WC enough coin over the years to have around 75m in cash in the bank.

 

[Scotland]

Of the Vic clubs around mid table. They do have a lot of latent bandwagon support. In the unlikely event that Carlton, Essendon and Richmond were ever good at once and Hawthorn weren't IMO there would be a gap.

80k+ H&A crowds the last 3 years:

Coll 13
Carl 12
Ess 7
Rich 7
Haw 5
Geel 4
Melb 3
St K 1
NM 0
WB 0

Skewed by Geelong and clubs that play mostly at Docklands, but the recipe for big crowds is well known.

 

[bzparkes]

Mate, I'm lean Big-boned.

FTFY

 

[Hawkk]

You seem to be linking some very strange references to determine who has the most supporters when attendance is the best one, specifically home attendance against interstate clubs where you don't have the opposition fill half the stand for you.

Attendance is the best one for sure. But that’s my point. From 1997 to 2024

Since 1997


Collingwood 41,389
Adelaide 40,343
West Coast 36,314
Essendon 34,983
Fremantle 32,216
Richmond 31,613
Sydney 31,408
Port Adelaide 30,368
Carlton 28,750
Hawthorn 26,394
Brisbane 24,777
St Kilda 23,811
Geelong 22,895
Melbourne 20,354
W Bulldogs 19,712
North Melbourne 18,727
Gold Coast 13,816
GWS Giants 11,216

There are heaps of variables though…

Victorian clubs taking games against interstate teams to smaller grounds…

• Hawthorn - 58 games (57 at York Park, 1 at Carrara)
• North Melbourne - 45 games (25 in Hobart, 11 at Manuka, 6 at the SCG, 3 at Carrara and 1 at Carlton)
• W Bulldogs - 37 games (13 games at Ballarat, 8 in Carlton, 5 at Manuka, 5 at Marrara, 5 at the SCG, 4 games in Cairns)
• Melbourne - 31 games (10 games in Alice, 10 games at Marrara, 7 games at the Gabba, 3 games at Manuka and 1 at Carlton)
• Carlton - 29 games (28 in Carlton, 1 at Carrara)
• St Kilda - 11 games (7 games at York Park, 3 games in Wellington, 1 in Carlton)
• Collingwood - 7 games (Victoria Park)
• Richmond - 5 games (3 games in Cairns, 1 game at Carrara and 1 in Carlton)
• Essendon - 1 game (at Carlton)

* Have excluded Geelong because they play every game at Kardina Park against non Victorian opposition

The other, is Football Park and Subiaco which limited the SA and WA clubs before 2014 and 2018…

Interestingly the Victorian clubs draw much larger crowds to WA, SA, NSW and Qld home games than the post 1987 expansion teams - obviously the traditional clubs have much more national followings

There is one problem with this though. Hawthorn and North played 58 and 45 games at small interstate venues. It’s obviously inflated but Hawthorn’s MCG average against non Vic clubs is over 40,000. I suspect it would climb a few thousand above 26,400 if those games were in Victoria.

Supercoach is a very strange metric, as is MCC members. Social media metrics also does cover the older supporter bases like the WC Chardonnay set very well even though there are millions of them and they have paid WC enough coin over the years to have around 75m in cash in the bank.

Social media covers 75 per cent of the population over 13. It’s a pretty good snap shot but not the perfect. As this is a Hawthorn thread, it’s probably fair to say that the Hawks are somewhere between the social media (top 3) and Roy Morgan survey (8-10) which was my point.

The MCC and SuperCoach was just to show that the big gap in Victoria is between the 6 bigger Vic clubs and Melbourne, St Kilda, the Dogs, Swans, North and the Lions. And that’s why 90 per cent of those 80,000 plus games are between those six clubs.

 

[Hawkk]

Of the Vic clubs around mid table. They do have a lot of latent bandwagon support. In the unlikely event that Carlton, Essendon and Richmond were ever good at once and Hawthorn weren't IMO there would be a gap.

80k+ H&A crowds the last 3 years:

Coll 13
Carl 12
Ess 7
Rich 7
Haw 5
Geel 4
Melb 3
St K 1
NM 0
WB 0

Skewed by Geelong and clubs that play mostly at Docklands, but the recipe for big crowds is well known.

All five of those Hawthorn games have been since round 15, 2024 too. Before that period, Hawthorn had only played 6 80k plus regular season games in 98.5 years. Five of the next 30 games (and 5 of next 13 MCG regular season games) broke that mark.

Hawthorn definitely has a huge bandwagon element but I think that swing has much more to do with AFL scheduling. The AFL now gives Hawthorn more of a big 4 schedule of games than before. That includes Round 1 vs Essendon, Easter Monday, and regular MCG games against Carl, Ess, Rich and Coll which weren’t on the table pre Covid.

 

[Scotland]

All five of those Hawthorn games have been since round 15, 2024 too. Before that period, Hawthorn had only played 6 80k plus regular season games in 98.5 years. Five of the next 30 games (and 5 of next 13 MCG regular season games) broke that mark.

Hawthorn definitely has a huge bandwagon element but I think that swing has much more to do with AFL scheduling. The AFL now gives Hawthorn more of a big 4 schedule of games than before. That includes Round 1 vs Essendon, Easter Monday, and regular MCG games against Carl, Ess, Rich and Coll which weren’t on the table pre Covid.

I don't much stock in crowds from 10 years ago or prior. Even when Hawthorn were in 3peat mode they were getting sub 80k to finals. In recent years the 'event' aspect of finals has really taken off. Hawks Cats was just shy of 100k, Hawks Dogs last year was just under 98k. Wasn't that long ago that Hawks Crows was a day final at Docklands. That would never happen now.

I think mid table is about fair. Hawks aren't Essendon who can somehow still pull huge crowds after two decades of being ordinary but they can still get bums on seats. I can't see a scenario where the teams below Hawthorn on my list are regularly getting huge crowds. If North have a 20 win season they will still probably struggle to get 70k against Collingwood.

 

[Hawkk]

I don't much stock in crowds from 10 years ago or prior. Even when Hawthorn were in 3peat mode they were getting sub 80k to finals. In recent years the 'event' aspect of finals has really taken off. Hawks Cats was just shy of 100k, Hawks Dogs last year was just under 98k. Wasn't that long ago that Hawks Crows was a day final at Docklands. That would never happen now.

I think mid table is about fair. Hawks aren't Essendon who can somehow still pull huge crowds after two decades of being ordinary but they can still get bums on seats. I can't see a scenario where the teams below Hawthorn on my list are regularly getting huge crowds. If North have a 20 win season they will still probably struggle to get 70k against Collingwood.

Those were regular season games though not finals. My point was that Hawthorn now get a very similar schedule to the big 4 — which was not the case when the AFL used to schedule Hawks games against the Dons and Blues at Marvel. Which is why our games draw much bigger crowds (even 2023 when we were 16th).

Compare 2025 to 1975 (or 1965) and the same 12 clubs are in exactly the same positions except Melbourne and Hawthorn who have switched places (5 to 7).

 

[kid_a]

Attendance is the best one for sure. But that’s my point. From 1997 to 2024



There is one problem with this though. Hawthorn and North played 58 and 45 games at small interstate venues. It’s obviously inflated but Hawthorn’s MCG average against non Vic clubs is over 40,000. I suspect it would climb a few thousand above 26,400 if those games were in Victoria.


Social media covers 75 per cent of the population over 13. It’s a pretty good snap shot but not the perfect. As this is a Hawthorn thread, it’s probably fair to say that the Hawks are somewhere between the social media (top 3) and Roy Morgan survey (8-10) which was my point.

The MCC and SuperCoach was just to show that the big gap in Victoria is between the 6 bigger Vic clubs and Melbourne, St Kilda, the Dogs, Swans, North and the Lions. And that’s why 90 per cent of those 80,000 plus games are between those six clubs.

Social media defs does not cover the average wa or SA footy fan, partics the very engaged and not counted

 

[Purple Suit]

Attendance is the best one for sure. But that’s my point. From 1997 to 2024



There is one problem with this though. Hawthorn and North played 58 and 45 games at small interstate venues. It’s obviously inflated but Hawthorn’s MCG average against non Vic clubs is over 40,000. I suspect it would climb a few thousand above 26,400 if those games were in Victoria.


Social media covers 75 per cent of the population over 13. It’s a pretty good snap shot but not the perfect. As this is a Hawthorn thread, it’s probably fair to say that the Hawks are somewhere between the social media (top 3) and Roy Morgan survey (8-10) which was my point.

The MCC and SuperCoach was just to show that the big gap in Victoria is between the 6 bigger Vic clubs and Melbourne, St Kilda, the Dogs, Swans, North and the Lions. And that’s why 90 per cent of those 80,000 plus games are between those six clubs.

Going by attendances since 97 really distorts things though.

WA, SA teams and Geelong had big stadium upgrades so their new attendance is much more relevant than historical data.

 

[Hawkk]

Going by attendances since 97 really distorts things though.

WA, SA teams and Geelong had big stadium upgrades so their new attendance is much more relevant than historical data.

I agree — that being said, Geelong’s peak attendance hasn’t changed much at all since the redevelopment (well the capacity has increased but the attendance hasn’t).

Re Hawthorn, from 39.00



Merchandise sales are number 1 in the AFL. That’s not to say Hawthorn is the biggest club but it’s another example of a metric that fluctuates wildly based on engagement. A lot of interesting stuff in that interview re alternative revenue streams and how total membership number is a bit meaningless and that it’s the higher value and coterie memberships that drive the revenue (as we know)

 

[Hawkk]

Social media defs does not cover the average wa or SA footy fan, partics the very engaged and not counted

It’s just another example where the coverage, media and exposure is slanted toward the bigger Victorian clubs though. How many WA and SA clubs get prime time FTA coverage vs the traditional VFL clubs (the 10 in Vic plus Sydney and Brisbane).

 

[Guju]

From Gemini/AI

 

[What else we can do]

From Gemini/AI

View attachment 2492659

View attachment 2492660

Roy Morgan is bull Hawks have supporters than that.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I think the sleeping giant for supporters is Stkilda. Go back when they were contending in that 08-11 period and they regularly drew big crowds. Quite alot of celebrity supporters too. If they are up and about next year I expect to see Marvel jam packed every home game.