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Analysis 2025 Draft watch

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Blue and Silver said:
I don't want to re-litigate the KP height debates, but if you are good enough, a cm or two doesn't matter.

Dean's game is based on competitiveness, reading of the play and doing his body work early.
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I think player height can be miss leading to some extent, with talls arm length or wing span can be more important.

A player might be 6’6 but if they have a 6’9 wing span, in a marking contest they’re effectively playing to wing span height
Dean’s got gangly long arms, him being 194cm shouldn’t be a problem
 
ThePuma #9 said:
Well to be fair I said you’d be going back to Boyd to find the last number 1 pick that was a dud, never said he was the only one as I did mention Patton and McCartin as well but gave them a pass due to being derailed via injury.

JHF isn’t a dud, he has heaps of talent. What he is though is a downright undisciplined dickhead and as you know as well with Elijah a player can have all the talent in the world but if they won’t apply themselves and take their opportunity seriously there’s nothing you can do about it.

McGrath is an interesting one, McCluggage was rated one all year and Essendon got a massive hard on for McGrath hoping they could turn the half back flanker into a midfielder. Whoops on that one.

You could be correct on Duursma, like I said he could be anything, including Cale Morton MkII but he’s the clear number 1 pick in everyone’s eyes in a year where the rest of the top 5 is untouchable. Just have to back ourselves in we’ll make it work.

As for JHF just as Harley says “Mummas boy”
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I think Duursma will be a good player, he’s a much more rounded player then his brothers and kinda does everything to a high level, he might not end up the best player in the draft but he’s a safe bet for a number one pick.

One thing I wanted to add to the conversation is IMO there’s a big difference between bidding on a club’s academy players and bidding clubs father sons
Father sons are much more a part of the clubs, if you bid on one to high and the other club doesn’t match you know the players pretty much gone first chance they get, it’s a massive risk to take just to move up a few spots in the first round.
 
Bronze said:
apple.news

AFL Mock Draft: Picks 1-23 (second edition) — Zero Hanger

Matched bids, live trading and PLENTY of surprises in our latest Mock Draft!
apple.news apple.news

Interesting to see what could happen with an early bid on Dean.
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I think this is a more realistic series of suggestions in terms of club needs in the top 10, but I struggle to see how both West Coast and Richmond would bypass both of Sharp and Cummings. That's madness, as is CDT sliding to 13.

Essendon bidding on Dean is a bluff that should be called, but I'm thinking we'll have a trade strategy in place to move up.
 

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I’m no draft expert. And I always read comments about picking for talent over need.

But if I am selecting for need in this year’s draft, I think I am looking first for an explosive midfielder. TDK was an important player for us because he offered midfield pace we don’t otherwise have. While we have added outside run in Chesser and Florent, the only way I can see we have added inside speed is if we are rotating Ainsworth through there. Otherwise, we have an inside mid axis of Cripps, Hewett, Lord, or Ben Camporeale. Jagga might offer a little more speed, but my guess is they are going to play him conservatively at half back or half forward, and his speed differential is probably negligible anyway.

If no midfield speed is possible at the draft, then I’m adding a key forward. Key defender is a more immediate need when I look at the list, but my guess is we will think we are ok when O’Farrell comes back and develops with Harry Dean. So we should stop gap on that one with a more experienced and short term pickup like Phillips, Blight, or Derksen. That leaves key forward as the priority.

I get why small forward is tempting. But I’d be backing Hayward (good player) and Ainsworth to make a difference. I’d also hope Josh Fraser can manufacture a forward line, and that the second preseason with Innes might spark Motlop. It’s not perfect. But with the deficiencies our list had in 2025 we were never going to be able to fix everything. It’s a lower priority for me than midfield pace and a key position forward.
 
Ninja Worrier said:
I've pivoted from the smalls, hoping our draft haul is Dean, Lydowyke and Ison ....feel like Archie would have gone higher with a full season.....future proofs our spine before the Walker and Tassie drafts
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Yep, it seems the most logical combination. (To balance the list)
 
Ninja Worrier said:
I've pivoted from the smalls, hoping our draft haul is Dean, Lydowyke and Ison ....feel like Archie would have gone higher with a full season.....future proofs our spine before the Walker and Tassie drafts
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If Dean is bid on at around pick 8, both Ludowyke and Schubert may still be on the board at our next pick.

Totally agree that we should go tall with the pick.....although if Dovaston is still on the bord :think:
 

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Red Bull said:
After paying for Dean with pick 9 and if pick 11 slides back, I’d be keen on Ludowyke or Pickett before taking Ison later.
Not keen on Dovaston really, looks a bit like a Watson wannabe without the electricity …
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I’d love Pickett or Dovaston if one of them is available.

Don’t understand the negativity towards Dovaston. He kicked over 50 goals this year and his energy and demeanour reminds me of Papley. Personally think he would be a great acquisition.
 
ThePuma #9 said:
Recently Cam Rayner has but before that only Luke Hodge, Tom Boyd and Drew Banfield have won a premiership in the AFL era. So not only are they not often the best player but it doesn’t guarantee much success either..
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I'd argue that #1 picks not winning premierships is not because of talent identification, but by virtue of being drafted by the wooden spoon side.

I'd guess picks 1-3 are (overall) more talented than picks 16-18. But that picks 16-18 play in more premierships. No numbers crunched, just guessing.
 

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SurreyBlue said:
No X-Factor. Has not distinct characteristics that would transfer to AFL. We have similar currently and we do not need another. I don't see it.
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I respectfully disagree. Your description of him sounds like you haven’t watched him play to me.

He has an instinct for goal which has shown in his play this year. If we drafted him I don’t see why Mots would start over him.
 

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Analysis 2025 Draft watch

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