Draft Watcher SMYTHES 2025 Draft Thread

[Smythe]

You forgot to add Lions points back after matching on Annable at 12 you forgot the 400 carry over points meaning Lions would have a pick about 33

I knew i wouldn't have copied it all over correctly. Thanks for finding that

 

[danster168]

I just think, and richmond have said, they will not do a trade unless you can really turn their head, and i think this would do it, melbourne get their man, and richmond get their future they are after. With the response of next year, you can do a lot with 2 firsts, ie trade, pick swap, set yourself up in a position to get your guys.

With all respect, I just don't see Melbourne trading their F1. The dees will be bottom 4 next year. We know this, the comp knows this. so that's almost a guaranteed top 5 pick in a better draft. So trading our current pick 7 + a F1 (4) to get up to pick 3? significantly overs.

 

[Smythe]

With all respect, I just don't see Melbourne trading their F1. The dees will be bottom 4 next year. We know this, the comp knows this. so that's almost a guaranteed top 5 pick in a better draft. So trading our current pick 7 + a F1 (4) to get up to pick 3? significantly overs.

It would take overs to get the deal done, hence the overs for a guy they love, and rate higher than most, plus getting back a f2 and f3, steak knives, but richmond will probably finish lower, so probably looking at pick 20 and 38 with 3 for 7 and maybe 5.
Melb also had to play adel and gc twice this year, next year you will play north, wce, rich, ess and port twice, your percentage was much, much better than all these teams this year and personally I think you will fin8sh above all of these teams, and melb will back themselves to do just that, meaning it could easily be pick 7 or 8.

 

[danster168]

It would take overs to get the deal done, hence the overs for a guy they love, and rate higher than most, plus getting back a f2 and f3, steak knives, but richmond will probably finish lower, so probably looking at pick 20 and 38 with 3 for 7 and maybe 5.
Melb also had to play adel and gc twice this year, next year you will play north, wce, rich, ess and port twice, your percentage was much, much better than all these teams this year and personally I think you will fin8sh above all of these teams, and melb will back themselves to do just that, meaning it could easily be pick 7 or 8.

i understand having to pay overs but to me that is so far overs. Pick 7 and pick 7 to get to pick 3? Tim Lamb would get sacked for that. Pick 7 + Gold coasts F1 and some F2's is far more accurate imo.

It doeant matter what happened last year. We have no Oliver, Petracca and Steven May wont play. We are going full rebuild. A f1 could even be pick 1 in the draft. more like to be closer to 1 than closer to 10 in a BETTER draft.

 

[theGav56]

I'd pay overs to get Melbourne's F1.

WC Pick 7 + F1 (pick 2 Dursma and pick 10 Farrow)

Mel Pick 1 CDT

 

[txbyhull]

I'd pay overs to get Melbourne's F1.

WC Pick 7 + F1 (pick 2 Dursma and pick 10 Farrow)

Mel Pick 1 CDT

We'd be trading pick 2 if they wanted CDT but I see where your thinking is

 

[txbyhull]

Love your work mate, this is good stuff.

 

[Jen2310]

First MOCK draft with possible trades
GOLD COAST MOVING PICKS TO ACCOMODATE ALL THEIR ACADEMY PLAYERS THEY WANT
MELB MOVING HEAVEN AND EARTH TO GET THIER MAN ROBEY
ADEL PUSHING UP
CARLTON GETTING A FUTURE
ESSENDON PUSHING UP FOR THEIR MAN
PORT JUMPING UP
(I have analysed the pick swaps, points matching, re-appointing picks, as much as i can and im pretty sure they all fall into place, especially towards the end of the draft...at the time of posting this i am very tired and apologise if there is a mistake, my eyes need rest)

1. WCE - WILL DUURSMA
2. WCE BID ON ZEKE UWLAND, GC PICK SWAP 16 + 53 TO ESS FOR 21 + 27, GC - MATCH ZEKE UWLAND BID
3. ESS SWAP 6 + 7 TO WCE FOR 3 AND 14, ESS - COOPER DUFF-TYTLER
4. RICH BID ON DYLAN PATTERSON, GC MATCH DYLAN PATTERSON BID
5. RICH BID ON DEAN, ADEL SWAP FUTURE 1ST AND 18 TO CARL FOR 11 AND 2027 3RD, CARL MATCH DEAN BID
6. MELB SWAP 10 AND MELB FUTURE 1ST TO RICH FOR 6 AND RICH FUTURE 2ND AND 3RD, MELB - SULLIVAN ROBEY
7. RICH - XAVIER TAYLOR
8. WCE - DYSON SHARP
9. WCE - JACOB FARROW
10. RICH - SAM GRJL
11. MELB - LATRELLE SUMNER PICKETT
12. ADEL BID ON DAN ANNABLE, BRIS MATCH DAN ANNABLE BID
13. ADEL - AIDAN SCHUBERT
14. HAW - OSKAR TALOR
15. GWS - SAM CUMMING
16. ESS - JOSH LINDSAY
17. WB - LACHIE DOVASTON
18. ESS BID ON MAX KING, SYD MATCH BID ON MAX KING
19. ESS - MITCH MARSH
20. GEEL - JEVAN PHILLIPOU
21. FREO - NOAH HIBBINS-HARGREAVES
22. HAW - OLLIE GREEVES
23. NTH - BLAKE THREDGOLD
24. NTH - ARCHIE LUDOWYKE
25. GC - JAI MURRAY (OWN ACAD)
26. ESS - ADAM SWEID (OWN NGA)
27. WB - HARLEY BARKER
28. CARL - LOUIS EMMETT
29. SYD - MAX KONDOGIANNIS
30. WCE - TYLAH WILLIAMS
31. GWS - CAMERON NAIRN
32. PORT SWAP CARL FUTURE 2ND - GC FOR 31, PORT - BLAKE OODSHORN-BENNIER
33. BRIS - TOM BURTON
34. MELB BID ON JACK ISON, CARL MATCH JACK ISON BID
35. MELB BID ON KYE FINCHER, STK MATCH KYE FINCHER BID
36. MELB - LIAM HETHERTON
37. RICH - HUNTER HOLMES
38. COLL - FRED RODRIGUEZ
39. GEEL - HARRY SCOTT
40. SYD - HARRY KYLE (OWN ACAD)
41. COLL - TOM BLAMIRES
42. NTH BID ON HUSSEIN EL ACHKAR, ESS MATCH HUSSEIN EL ACHKAR BID
43. NTH - AVERY THOMAS
44. GC - BEAU ADDINSALL (OWN ACAD)
45. FREO - LEON KICKETT
46. ADEL - RILEY ONLEY
47. PORT - MATTHEW LERAY
48. COLL - TAJ MURRAY
49. GEEL - TALOR BYRNE
50. HAW - MARCUS KRASNADAMSKIS
51. FREO - SAM SWADLING
52. WB - WILL DARCY
53. BRIS - TYAN PRINDABLE (OWN ACAD)
54. ADEL - CODY CURTIN
55. STK - JACK DALTON

PLAYERS PICKED PER CLUB

ADEL - 2, Schubert, Onley, Curtin HAW - 3, O.taylor, Greeves, Krasnadamskis
BRIS - 3, Annable, Prindable, Burton MELB - 3, Robey, Sumner Pickett, Hetherton
CARL - 3, Dean, Ison, Emmett NTH - 3, Thredgold, Ludowyke, Thomas
COLL - 3, Murray, Blamires, Rodriguez PORT - 2, Oodshorn-bennier, Le ray
ESS - 5, Duff-tytler, Lindsay, Marsh, Sweid, El achkar RICH - 3, X.taylor, Grjl, Holmes
FREO - 3, Hibbins-hargreaves, Kickett, Swadling STK - 2, Fincher, Dalton
GEEL - 3, Phillipou, Scott, Byrne SYD - 3, King, Kyle, Kondogiannis
GC - 4, Uwland, Patterson, Murray, Addinsall WCE - 4, Duursma, Sharp, Farrow, Williams
GWS - 2, Cumming, Nairn WB - 3, Dovaston, Barker, Darcy

A couple of clubs, as above, may get into a position where they just take their own acad/nga kids with their own picks, AND/OR also due to list sizes and rookie promises already made to some players by teams;

ADEL - TYLER WELSH
BRIS - LINCOLN MCCARTHY
GEEL - KEIGHTON MATOFAI-FORBES, GEORGE STEVENS
GC - BEN JEPSON
GWS - CONOR STONE, JAKE STRINGER
STK - RYAN BYRNES
SYD - JAKE LLOYD, DANE RAMPE

I can’t see McCarthy not getting a bid in the top 50..

 

[briztoon]

First MOCK draft with possible trades
GOLD COAST MOVING PICKS TO ACCOMODATE ALL THEIR ACADEMY PLAYERS THEY WANT
MELB MOVING HEAVEN AND EARTH TO GET THIER MAN ROBEY
ADEL PUSHING UP
CARLTON GETTING A FUTURE
ESSENDON PUSHING UP FOR THEIR MAN
PORT JUMPING UP
(I have analysed the pick swaps, points matching, re-appointing picks, as much as i can and im pretty sure they all fall into place, especially towards the end of the draft...at the time of posting this i am very tired and apologise if there is a mistake, my eyes need rest)

1. WCE - WILL DUURSMA
2. WCE BID ON ZEKE UWLAND, GC PICK SWAP 16 + 53 TO ESS FOR 21 + 27, GC - MATCH ZEKE UWLAND BID
3. ESS SWAP 6 + 7 TO WCE FOR 3 AND 14, ESS - COOPER DUFF-TYTLER
4. RICH BID ON DYLAN PATTERSON, GC MATCH DYLAN PATTERSON BID
5. RICH BID ON DEAN, ADEL SWAP FUTURE 1ST AND 18 TO CARL FOR 11 AND 2027 3RD, CARL MATCH DEAN BID
6. MELB SWAP 10 AND MELB FUTURE 1ST TO RICH FOR 6 AND RICH FUTURE 2ND AND 3RD, MELB - SULLIVAN ROBEY
7. RICH - XAVIER TAYLOR
8. WCE - DYSON SHARP
9. WCE - JACOB FARROW
10. RICH - SAM GRJL
11. MELB - LATRELLE SUMNER PICKETT
12. ADEL BID ON DAN ANNABLE, BRIS MATCH DAN ANNABLE BID
13. ADEL - AIDAN SCHUBERT
14. HAW - OSKAR TALOR
15. GWS - SAM CUMMING
16. ESS - JOSH LINDSAY
17. WB - LACHIE DOVASTON
18. ESS BID ON MAX KING, SYD MATCH BID ON MAX KING
19. ESS - MITCH MARSH
20. GEEL - JEVAN PHILLIPOU
21. FREO - NOAH HIBBINS-HARGREAVES
22. HAW - OLLIE GREEVES
23. NTH - BLAKE THREDGOLD
24. NTH - ARCHIE LUDOWYKE
25. GC - JAI MURRAY (OWN ACAD)
26. ESS - ADAM SWEID (OWN NGA)
27. WB - HARLEY BARKER
28. CARL - LOUIS EMMETT
29. SYD - MAX KONDOGIANNIS
30. WCE - TYLAH WILLIAMS
31. GWS - CAMERON NAIRN
32. PORT SWAP CARL FUTURE 2ND - GC FOR 31, PORT - BLAKE OODSHORN-BENNIER
33. BRIS - TOM BURTON
34. MELB BID ON JACK ISON, CARL MATCH JACK ISON BID
35. MELB BID ON KYE FINCHER, STK MATCH KYE FINCHER BID
36. MELB - LIAM HETHERTON
37. RICH - HUNTER HOLMES
38. COLL - FRED RODRIGUEZ
39. GEEL - HARRY SCOTT
40. SYD - HARRY KYLE (OWN ACAD)
41. COLL - TOM BLAMIRES
42. NTH BID ON HUSSEIN EL ACHKAR, ESS MATCH HUSSEIN EL ACHKAR BID
43. NTH - AVERY THOMAS
44. GC - BEAU ADDINSALL (OWN ACAD)
45. FREO - LEON KICKETT
46. ADEL - RILEY ONLEY
47. PORT - MATTHEW LERAY
48. COLL - TAJ MURRAY
49. GEEL - TALOR BYRNE
50. HAW - MARCUS KRASNADAMSKIS
51. FREO - SAM SWADLING
52. WB - WILL DARCY
53. BRIS - TYAN PRINDABLE (OWN ACAD)
54. ADEL - CODY CURTIN
55. STK - JACK DALTON

PLAYERS PICKED PER CLUB

ADEL - 2, Schubert, Onley, Curtin HAW - 3, O.taylor, Greeves, Krasnadamskis
BRIS - 3, Annable, Prindable, Burton MELB - 3, Robey, Sumner Pickett, Hetherton
CARL - 3, Dean, Ison, Emmett NTH - 3, Thredgold, Ludowyke, Thomas
COLL - 3, Murray, Blamires, Rodriguez PORT - 2, Oodshorn-bennier, Le ray
ESS - 5, Duff-tytler, Lindsay, Marsh, Sweid, El achkar RICH - 3, X.taylor, Grjl, Holmes
FREO - 3, Hibbins-hargreaves, Kickett, Swadling STK - 2, Fincher, Dalton
GEEL - 3, Phillipou, Scott, Byrne SYD - 3, King, Kyle, Kondogiannis
GC - 4, Uwland, Patterson, Murray, Addinsall WCE - 4, Duursma, Sharp, Farrow, Williams
GWS - 2, Cumming, Nairn WB - 3, Dovaston, Barker, Darcy

A couple of clubs, as above, may get into a position where they just take their own acad/nga kids with their own picks, AND/OR also due to list sizes and rookie promises already made to some players by teams;

ADEL - TYLER WELSH
BRIS - LINCOLN MCCARTHY
GEEL - KEIGHTON MATOFAI-FORBES, GEORGE STEVENS
GC - BEN JEPSON
GWS - CONOR STONE, JAKE STRINGER
STK - RYAN BYRNES
SYD - JAKE LLOYD, DANE RAMPE

Just on Brisbane.

I'm starting to believe we'll take 4 picks in the national draft, with our 5th and last pick used to upgrade Bruce Reville to the senior list, to open up a Cat B rookie spot for the Irish kid we've just signed, Ben Murphey.

We'll have two then have 2 Cat B rookies and 6 Cat A rookies.

List needs are a tall key defender, to potentially replace Andrews in a few years, and a young developing 4th ruck, and maybe a genuine small defensive forward.

I'm not that sold on Tyan Prindable, not in the National draft.

 

[Smythe]

I can’t see McCarthy not getting a bid in the top 50..

He may, but at the time of doing this i didn't see a spot where I thought a team may want to use a ND on trying for him.

 

[txbyhull]

He may, but at the time of doing this i didn't see a spot where I thought a team may want to use a ND on trying for him.

I problem I'm finding myself with Kye Fincher. I rate him but can't find where I think he'll cop a bid. Do you ever second guess if that means your rating is off?

P.S any suggestion on where to find open list spot numbers / live picks taken estimates?

 

[Smythe]

I problem I'm finding myself with Kye Fincher. I rate him but can't find where I think he'll cop a bid. Do you ever second guess if that means your rating is off?

P.S any suggestion on where to find open list spot numbers / live picks taken estimates?

I have like Kye all year and I see teams bidding anywhere from 20 onwards.
I always do my mocks on what I think clubs will do with their pick also using whispers on who they like, never really referencing my ratings, unless it's between two similar players.
There are a few ways to find out, probably current best is... Afl draft guru team lists 2025, then click on the top right spot where it says 2026 (in blue)

 

[txbyhull]

I have like Kye all year and I see teams bidding anywhere from 20 onwards.
There are a few ways to find out, probably current best is... Afl draft guru team lists 2025, then click on the top right spot where it says 2026 (in blue)

thanks king

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

For what its worth?

My draft picks for the Saints

1. Kye Fincher-matched bid-30's pick

2. Liam Hetherton- 30's/40's + pick

 

[Smythe]

With only 1 week to go here is my final Mock draft (with possible trades) based on latest whispers - First Round only

Wce swap 13+34 to Carl for 9
Adel swap F1 to Carl for 11
1 - Wce - Duursma
Gc swap 18+36 to Ess for 21+27
2 - Gc - MATCH Uwland BID
3 - Wce - Duff-Tytler
4 - Gc - MATCH Patterson BID
5 - Bris - MATCH Annable BID
6 - Rich - Robey
7 - Rich - X.Taylor
8 - Ess - Sharp
9 - Carl - MATCH Dean BID
10 - Ess - Cumming
11 - Melb - Grjl
12 - Melb - Farrow
13 - Wce - Dovaston
Geel swap 20+F1 to Haw for 14+22
14 - Geel - Marsh
15 - Adel - Phillipou
16 - Gws - Sumner-Pickett
17 - Wb - O.Taylor
18 - Adel - Nairn
19 - Ess - Barker
20 - Syd - MATCH Kyle BID
21 - Haw - Lindsay
22 - Gc - MATCH Addinsall BID
23 - Carl - MATCH Ison BID
24 - Freo - Hibbins-Hargreaves
25 - Syd - MATCH Carmichael BID
26 - Geel - Greeves

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

With only 1 week to go here is my final Mock draft (with possible trades) based on latest whispers - First Round only

Wce swap 13+34 to Carl for 9
Adel swap F1 to Carl for 11
1 - Wce - Duursma
2 - Wce - Duff-Tytler
Gc swap 18+36 to Ess for 21+27
3 - Gc - MATCH Uwland BID
4 - Gc - MATCH Patterson BID
5 - Rich - Robey
6 - Rich - Grjl
7 - Bris - MATCH Annable BID
8 - Ess - Sharp
9 - Carl - MATCH Dean BID
10 - Ess - X.Taylor
11 - Melb - Cumming
12 - Melb - Sumner-Pickett
13 - Wce - Dovaston
Geel swap 20+F1 to Haw for 14+22
14 - Geel - Marsh
15 - Adel - Phillipou
16 - Gws - Farrow
17 - Wb - O.Taylor
18 - Adel - Schubert
19 - Ess - Barker
20 - Haw - Greeves
21 - Gc - MATCH Addinsall BID
22 - Carl - MATCH Ison BID
23 - Freo - Lindsay
24 - Geel - Hibbins-Hargreaves

Looks good Smythe
Only one there that may be a miss for me is Sam Cumming.
Think Essendon are very interested.

 

[Smythe]

Looks good Smythe
Only one there that may be a miss for me is Sam Cumming.
Think Essendon are very interested.

I had him going there, I was sure, so I checked what I posted and realised actually did have to adjust the whole thing as I copied from my rough copy draft and not my latest update, which in fact does have Cumming to Ess and other changes all round. Sorry for the mislead everyone, and thanks for pointing that out Saintscomemarchingin i wouldnt have noticed otherwise.

 

[ctwenty1]

With only 1 week to go here is my final Mock draft (with possible trades) based on latest whispers - First Round only

Wce swap 13+34 to Carl for 9
Adel swap F1 to Carl for 11
1 - Wce - Duursma
Gc swap 18+36 to Ess for 21+27
2 - Gc - MATCH Uwland BID
3 - Wce - Duff-Tytler
4 - Gc - MATCH Patterson BID
5 - Bris - MATCH Annable BID
6 - Rich - Robey
7 - Rich - X.Taylor
8 - Ess - Sharp
9 - Carl - MATCH Dean BID
10 - Ess - Cumming
11 - Melb - Grjl
12 - Melb - Farrow
13 - Wce - Dovaston
Geel swap 20+F1 to Haw for 14+22
14 - Geel - Marsh
15 - Adel - Phillipou
16 - Gws - Sumner-Pickett
17 - Wb - O.Taylor
18 - Adel - Nairn
19 - Ess - Barker
20 - Syd - MATCH Kyle BID
21 - Haw - Lindsay
22 - Gc - MATCH Addinsall BID
23 - Carl - MATCH Ison BID
24 - Freo - Hibbins-Hargreaves
25 - Syd - MATCH Carmichael BID
26 - Geel - Greeves

Not sure if that gives us enough points for that bid matching but happy to grab another 2026 first - I guess any point deficit coudl go against that

Appreciate the effort yoiu ahve made!

 

[year of the cat]

Good effort, but imho we wouldn’t consider trading out our FF for that return. If any trade is to be done by us, I’d assume it would be to trade out into next years draft to build up some collateral to have a crack at Butters.

 

[Calcium Man]

I had him going there, I was sure, so I checked what I posted and realised actually did have to adjust the whole thing as I copied from my rough copy draft and not my latest update, which in fact does have Cumming to Ess and other changes all round. Sorry for the mislead everyone, and thanks for pointing that out Saintscomemarchingin i wouldnt have noticed otherwise.

Think we’re taking XT over Grlj?

 

[Smythe]

Think we’re taking XT over Grlj?

This final Mock are not my thoughts, it was done using latest whispers with pick trades etc.
I have, however, always thought Rich would go Robey and XT, or Xt and Grlj. But after hearing Cal Twomey today it sound more like it could be best available, whether its CDT or Robey, then grlj.
My personal top 12 thoughts would be;

1. Wce - duursma
2. Gc - uwland BID
3. Wce - cdt
4. Gc - Patterson BID
5. Bris - annable BID
6. Rich - robey
7. Rich - grlj
8. Carl - Dean BID
9. Ess - x.taylor
10. Ess - cumming
11. Melb - sharp
12. Mel - farrow

 

[ctwenty1]

This final Mock are not my thoughts, it was done using latest whispers with pick trades etc.
I have, however, always thought Rich would go Robey and XT, or Xt and Grlj. But after hearing Cal Twomey today it sound more like it could be best available, whether its CDT or Robey, then grlj.
My personal top 12 thoughts would be;

1. Wce - duursma
2. Gc - uwland BID
3. Wce - cdt
4. Gc - Patterson BID
5. Bris - annable BID
6. Rich - robey
7. Rich - grlj
8. Carl - Dean BID
9. Ess - x.taylor
10. Ess - cumming
11. Melb - sharp
12. Mel - farrow

if thats the way it falls I expect the first Dean bid at Melbourne

Suspect Essendon wont bid on Dean if richmond havent. Based on media specualtion expect a Dean bid by WCE or Ric anyway

 

[MasterSamurai]

With only 1 week to go here is my final Mock draft (with possible trades) based on latest whispers - First Round only

Wce swap 13+34 to Carl for 9
Adel swap F1 to Carl for 11
1 - Wce - Duursma
Gc swap 18+36 to Ess for 21+27
2 - Gc - MATCH Uwland BID
3 - Wce - Duff-Tytler
4 - Gc - MATCH Patterson BID
5 - Bris - MATCH Annable BID
6 - Rich - Robey
7 - Rich - X.Taylor
8 - Ess - Sharp
9 - Carl - MATCH Dean BID
10 - Ess - Cumming
11 - Melb - Grjl
12 - Melb - Farrow
13 - Wce - Dovaston
Geel swap 20+F1 to Haw for 14+22
14 - Geel - Marsh
15 - Adel - Phillipou
16 - Gws - Sumner-Pickett
17 - Wb - O.Taylor
18 - Adel - Nairn
19 - Ess - Barker
20 - Syd - MATCH Kyle BID
21 - Haw - Lindsay
22 - Gc - MATCH Addinsall BID
23 - Carl - MATCH Ison BID
24 - Freo - Hibbins-Hargreaves
25 - Syd - MATCH Carmichael BID
26 - Geel - Greeves

Hawthorn= fleeced. Why on earth would we want to give up Marsh so that cats take him? And get a miserely FF from them? No way.

 

[Smythe]

Hawthorn= fleeced. Why on earth would we want to give up Marsh so that cats take him? And get a miserely FF from them? No way.

Teams, especially in the late first round in this weaker draft would much rather a first next year, and teams hoping to use it for free agency want them even more.

 

[MasterSamurai]

Teams, especially in the late first round in this weaker draft would much rather a first next year, and teams hoping to use it for free agency want them even more.

That goes with Geelong as well though. I also find it a huge stretch that a club is going to hope a fa is going to nominate them in 12 months. Hawks are taking pick 10 to the draft unless we come out on top. It just won't happen. So feel free to redo Hawthorn pick of you can. Pick 22+ FF maybe on the table is what's more realistic. We've already been linked with Barker, Farrow, NHH and Greeves for starters. Also interested in Grjl, if he falls through.