Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[BlueTongue]

Did he start by saying he gets annoyed people forget that the bid will slide back because of the academy pick matches... then do exactly that himself?

In his scenario - Dees bid on Dean at #7:

That pick slides from #7 to #10 which means 1389 reduces to 1148 points. We have 2164 points total (from picks 12 and 14) which would leave 1016 (pick 15).



If we trade 9 to WC for pick 13 before the draft it would slide to 16 so we'd have 14 and 16 which is 1948 points.



So assuming the Dean bid comes from Melb - a trade with WC costs us 4 spots in the draft. They'd need to add 34 to the deal for that to make any sense. I'd push for their 2nd rounder next year. Even if we go 100ish points into the negative for Ison (which I highly doubt) it will make next to no difference because of the Walker situation.

So, assuming we go into negative this year and then they come off our first round next year, if we don't have enough for Walker, can we go into the negative again for 2027? By then Tassie will be compromise the draft and we will have already largely gotten who we need.

 

[GT619]

this draft does not excite me one bit. I'll happily trade into next year

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

this draft does not excite me one bit. I'll happily trade into next year

It's certainly a bit of a dud compared to years previous. 2026 is shaping up to be fantastic as well as 2027 from early vision.

 

[The Bighouse]

Makes sense, unite the brothers. Keep them there.

Just not sure how pick #50 gets it done.

A trade with HFC was mentioned (our old pick)

 

[teddy-hopkins]

I think if we are doing the Adelaide trade we will want the third rounder so it can slide up to help match Ison

Pick 48 would be another 200 points - more than enough for Ison.

 

[ctwenty1]

So, assuming we go into negative this year and then they come off our first round next year, if we don't have enough for Walker, can we go into the negative again for 2027? By then Tassie will be compromise the draft and we will have already largely gotten who we need.

We don’t know the rules for 2026 let alone 2027

As a rule, I’m certain that we will be desperate to avoid points deficit for first round of 2026

 

[tarczonandjane]

That was the other trade i was thinking of making in my Phantom.

StK trade F1 to Hawthorn for 10 to draft Phillipou. But i thought... they are dumb...but are they that dumb???

What does the article say?

The article makes an implicit link that St Kilda are after our pick #11 so they can get Phillipou.

 

[Worm4]

The article makes an implicit link that St Kilda are after our pick #11 so they can get Phillipou.

We ain't helping st kilda.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

I'm normally for the sugar hit, but I'm open to trading into next year's draft. You obviously need willing partners but I'd be looking into using one to trade into next year's and either F2 or picks in the 30s-40s...these are a sweet spot as they come in 4-5 spots once bid picks are obliterated, and they help with an earlier Ison bid and may leave us with a pick in the 30s.

If you can somehow manufacture Dean, Ison, a pick in the 30s (take best available slider) for this year and three F1 (2026) picks, I would be happy with that.

 

[BlueNath]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

To be fair, we have helped build out our depth and increased our draft hands for the next 2 drafts also. It was never all in on replacing those guys in this draft period alone.

We must remember it looks highly likely now that Ison and Dean are both first rounders. So turning two first picks into 3 first round players may simply not be possible without going into deficit.

I may be not seeing it like others, but I am super excited about Dean and especially Ison. Ison looks pretty special to me. Im not one who think "Just Dean and Ison, thats a sh*t deal for our draft hand". I keep thinking how fortunate we are to have two amazing prospects already locked and loaded.

If we are to try and grab another top talent (in a relatively weak draft), it could mean going into deficit for Cody. We have 2 2017F1's, so Im sure we can trade in to 2026 to ensure we get Cody. But our decisions this draft may mean we pay a higher price next year.

I can definitely see how people can argue either way on what we try and do. I guess we just ned to trust the club, which I do with GW there.

 

[gandaal]

The more i watch footage of this draft the more I think the "official" rankings are completely wrong.

I rate players considered to be in the late first early second higher than some of the top 5.

I can see why Harry is getting bid on early. At the moment I rate him the best AFL prospect in the draft.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

I’m more for trying to turn 9 and 11 into two early future seconds while not going into deficit. Hopefully next season we can use those picks to chase Gothard, Gruzewski, (insert your own names) type of players.
the timing of these FS/academy players really sucks for us but we should really still be able to get something extra out of our picks.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

According to Brad Lloyd per Code Sports:

DRAFT HAND – 9, 11, 43, 54, 67, 72

Carlton has talked a lot about flexibility. Losing the future first round pick last year as part of the Jagga Smith deal has been turned around really quickly with the Silvagni and De Koning compensation picks, and then of course the Curnow deal.

Carlton has had a really big focus on getting picks in to give them a lot of flexibility with Harry Dean coming through and Cody Walker next year, two potential father-son draftees, as well as Jack Ison, from the club academy.

Every time you look, Dean is going up the draft order. By all reports, he could go anywhere between two and six in the draft, which leaves Carlton having to use one of those early picks on him.

The flexibility of having two picks, nine and 11, gives them the option of potentially sliding one of those picks back and getting a future pick in.

They may even take the second pick and move into the future as well, which sets up the preparation for Walker for next year, who is a star.

Overall, they are well placed to get gun young players in Dean, Ison and Walker and get some young talent in before Tasmania arrives.

 

[Soapy V]

I feel like the club really needs to strongly consider trading up somehow.

If we end up just using picks 9, 11, and what we had at 22 purely to match bids for Dean and Ison only, and/or to shuffle points to match a bid for Walker next year, I’m not sure how I’d feel about that.

It would seem like the returns from TDK, Silvagni, and Curnow are being used just to secure players who arguably should have been ours anyway.

I get that a lot of this is out of our hands, especially with the AFL constantly shifting the goalposts and I’m sure there’s a bigger picture at play, but it’s hard not to feel shortchanged.

They want to but no one is biting.

We have a lot of young talent (more than most) and will add Dean & Ison at a minimum. Two very talented kids and Jagga will be like a first year player

The smarter thing may well be to stock up picks for next year to get Walker and a couple more youngsters which would mean current youth are getting to the 2-4 pre season mark. It's good balance

Wright wanted to improve depth and maturity this year. Done it so far but IMO we need another mature KPD minimum. Wouldn't suprise me that we take 2 players in draft and trial a few during pre season whilst also creating a heap of SC room.

 

[macky99]

They want to but no one is biting.

We have a lot of young talent (more than most) and will add Dean & Ison at a minimum. Two very talented kids and Jagga will be like a first year player

The smarter thing may well be to stock up picks for next year to get Walker and a couple more youngsters which would mean current youth are getting to the 2-4 pre season mark. It's good balance

Wright wanted to improve depth and maturity this year. Done it so far but IMO we need another mature KPD minimum. Wouldn't suprise me that we take 2 players in draft and trial a few during pre season whilst also creating a heap of SC room.

Based on the fact we lost three top tier players to walk away with only Dean & lson would not be a great outcome, hopefully we can add another talented youngster in this draft.
lt looks like we are paying a premium price for father son players whilst the premiers Brisbane add four ready made players next year, hard to see another team getting near them in the next few years.

 

[Soapy V]

Based on the fact we lost three top tier players to walk away with only Dean & lson would not be a great outcome, hopefully we can add another talented youngster in this draft.
lt looks like we are paying a premium price for father son players whilst the premiers Brisbane add four ready made players next year, hard to see another team getting near them in the next few years.

Disagree. This is a two year reset. Wright wanted a more balanced list for many reasons. These "top tier" players haven't taken us anywhere

We have also added Hayward, Florent, Chesser, Ainsworth, Reidy PLUS a heap of top picks. List IMO looks more balanced and we now have lots of options/flexibility for next 3 years. These picks can be used for draft picks and/or trades

IMO the way to be successful is to build from within. Jagga Dean HOF HOK Walker Ison Lord Moir Carroll etc are the next wave and will be supported by a beefed up Development program. On top of this, this draft isn't rated and we could easily get a better player as a rookie and ssp

 

[JJBagger]

Based on the fact we lost three top tier players to walk away with only Dean & lson would not be a great outcome, hopefully we can add another talented youngster in this draft.
lt looks like we are paying a premium price for father son players whilst the premiers Brisbane add four ready made players next year, hard to see another team getting near them in the next few years.

JSOS isn’t a top tier player

 

[macky99]

JSOS isn’t a top tier player

He would have been a key defender for the next two years whilst Dean & O'Farrell develop.

 

[JJBagger]

He would have been a key defender for the next two years whilst Dean & O'Farrell develop.

Possibly. Doesn’t mean he’s a top tier player though

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

He would have been a key defender for the next two years whilst Dean & O'Farrell develop.

JSOS would never have accepted a 2 year deal to fill in for Dean and HOF, sensibly took the 5 year one at a extremely inflated price.

 

[The Great Ian]

Not sure about Ison.

Best talent available at our pick should be the approach.

 

[macky99]

Disagree. This is a two year reset. Wright wanted a more balanced list for many reasons. These "top tier" players haven't taken us anywhere

We have also added Hayward, Florent, Chesser, Ainsworth, Reidy PLUS a heap of top picks. List IMO looks more balanced and we now have lots of options/flexibility for next 3 years. These picks can be used for draft picks and/or trades

IMO the way to be successful is to build from within. Jagga Dean HOF HOK Walker Ison Lord Moir Carroll etc are the next wave and will be supported by a beefed up Development program. On top of this, this draft isn't rated and we could easily get a better player as a rookie and ssp

Fully understand it is a reset but along way to go, whilst you indicated the list is better balanced, the offset is we have average rucks, no key forward underneath Harry, if he is injured we are in significant trouble in that space, Dean & O'Farrell will take a few years, definitely have added needed pace but on flip side it has opened some other gaps.

We are paying a premium for father & son players whilst the premiers bring in four ready to go players, not sure anyone can logically question that.

We were only a few goals away from the Grand final two years ago, clearly alot of issues between the playing group & coaching following that year.

 

[macky99]

JSOS would never have accepted a 2 year deal to fill in for Dean and HOF, sensibly took the 5 year one at a extremely inflated price.

l didn't mention a two year deal, he would have given us time to develop the other two for a period of time.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

l didn't mention a two year deal, he would have given us time to develop the other two for a period of time.

We need to accept there will be an AFL encouraged massive increase in future player movement.
It would have been irresponsible to match SOS and TDK's offers...1 step backwards, 2 steps forward.