List Mgmt. 2025 List Management Discussion - Part V

[Hubnester]

2025 List Management Discussion - Part 5

Now that our season is over, and news is starting to break - it's time for a fresh thread.

This thread is to discuss all things list management - trades, draft, free agency, delistings and more.
As we are now officially in our off-season, we'll be wanting to keep this thread more strictly on-topic than the previous iterations.
Be respectful. You are allowed to disagree with someone - but play the ball, not the man. Repeat offenders will have their posting rights revoked.

Thanks to Lore once again for this incredibly useful spreadsheet.

2025 KEY DATES
Free Agency Period: Friday, October 3rd - Friday, October 10th
Trade Period: Monday, October 6th - Wednesday, October 15th
AFL Draft: Wednesday, November 19th - Thursday, November 20th

See Also:
2025 Year in Review Rumours & Confirmed Movements 2025 Draft Discussion
​

 

[True Believer]

Agree
Agree
Disagree.

Good beer and friendly people doesn't equate to economic sense.

There are two factors at play. Football factor, how much they like the game. = A lot.
Population and Attendance. Will be limited by the Tasmanian population. Around 600 000.
Perth has a football factor of a lot, their population of 2.5 Million, means they have up to a million or so attendee's each year.

Its worse than that though, the Perth population is concentrated in one spot. Tasmania is spread out. If people live 200km away, they will still go to the footy...sometimes, but not every week.

Melbourne Pop 5 245 000. Close: Ballarat, Bendigo. Geelong Football factor =High.
Attendance ( annual ), close to 7 Million. 9 teams.
This comes to nearly 600 000 population for each team. So the average attendance is 780 000 per team.

Sydney Pop 5 143 000. Close Canberra , Newcastle, Central Coast, Woolongong. Football factor Low.
Attendance : Around 550 000. 2 teams.
The average figures ( but its skewed incredibly to the Swans in reality ) 2 500 000 population per team.
attendance 225 000 per team.

Brisbane Pop 2 700 000. Close, Gold coast, Sunshine coast , Toowoomba. Football factor Low.
Attendance : A bit over 300 000. 1 Team.
2 700 000 per team, for attendance of 225 000.

Perth. Pop 2 400 000. Close, Bunbury. Football factor , High.
Attendance. 1 000 000. 2 teams. Population per team 1200000. Attendance per team 500 000.

Adelaide. Pop 1 400 000. Close. ? Football factor =High.
Attendance. Around 1 Million ( thanks gather round ). 2 teams. Population per team 1200000. Attendance per team 500 000.

Gold Coast . Pop 750 000. Close : Brisbane. Football factor = Low.
Attendance. Around 170 000.

Newcastle . Pop 500 000. Close: Sydney. Central Coast. Football factor = Low.

Canberra Pop 500 000. Close: Sydney. Albury/Wodonga. Football factor = Low.
Average attendance, a bit over 10 000 per game.

Sunshine Coast: Pop 400 000. Football factor =Low.

NSW Central Coast : Pop 350 000. Football factor = Low.

Wollongong : Pop 318 000. Football factor = Low.

Geelong : Pop 309 000. Close : Melbourne, Ballarat, Bendigo. Football factor =High.
Average attendance : 370 000- 400 000. This year they had 10 games, were getting 25 000 -30 000 a lot. Lowest crowds corresponding to interstate clubs. ( Example StKilda game had around 35 000 attendees.
Note: AFL did not build the Cardinia Park Stadium. ( they tipped in 2 Million for the re-development, less than the Vic Gov, and Geelong football club ).

Hobart " Pop 233 000. Close : Launceston ( 93 000 ). Football factor =High.
They...might..be able to draw as much crowd as Gold Coast, but its not a no brainer.
Government money involved, so future funding is an issue if the team is not successful. \

I don't consider that they have been treated disgracefully. The AFL don't go there for the same reason Oasis don't go there. Nothing personal. ( And Oasis still wouldn't go there...if they had the best stadium in the universe. Its a matter of counting dollars. ).

Minor point but I think you'll find the population of Perth is only around 2 million, and maybe 2.5 million is the entire state of WA..........

Still significantly more than Tassie however......

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Minor point but I think you'll find the population of Perth is only around 2 million, and maybe 2.5 million is the entire state of WA..........

Still significantly more than Tassie however......

But i asked AI, it can't possibly be wrong , 3 Million in the state.

 

[Yawkey way]

Agree
Agree
Disagree.

Good beer and friendly people doesn't equate to economic sense.

There are two factors at play. Football factor, how much they like the game. = A lot.
Population and Attendance. Will be limited by the Tasmanian population. Around 600 000.
Perth has a football factor of a lot, their population of 2.5 Million, means they have up to a million or so attendee's each year.

Its worse than that though, the Perth population is concentrated in one spot. Tasmania is spread out. If people live 200km away, they will still go to the footy...sometimes, but not every week.

Melbourne Pop 5 245 000. Close: Ballarat, Bendigo. Geelong Football factor =High.
Attendance ( annual ), close to 7 Million. 9 teams.
This comes to nearly 600 000 population for each team. So the average attendance is 780 000 per team.

Sydney Pop 5 143 000. Close Canberra , Newcastle, Central Coast, Woolongong. Football factor Low.
Attendance : Around 550 000. 2 teams.
The average figures ( but its skewed incredibly to the Swans in reality ) 2 500 000 population per team.
attendance 225 000 per team.

Brisbane Pop 2 700 000. Close, Gold coast, Sunshine coast , Toowoomba. Football factor Low.
Attendance : A bit over 300 000. 1 Team.
2 700 000 per team, for attendance of 225 000.

Perth. Pop 2 400 000. Close, Bunbury. Football factor , High.
Attendance. 1 000 000. 2 teams. Population per team 1200000. Attendance per team 500 000.

Adelaide. Pop 1 400 000. Close. ? Football factor =High.
Attendance. Around 1 Million ( thanks gather round ). 2 teams. Population per team 1200000. Attendance per team 500 000.

Gold Coast . Pop 750 000. Close : Brisbane. Football factor = Low.
Attendance. Around 170 000.

Newcastle . Pop 500 000. Close: Sydney. Central Coast. Football factor = Low.

Canberra Pop 500 000. Close: Sydney. Albury/Wodonga. Football factor = Low.
Average attendance, a bit over 10 000 per game.

Sunshine Coast: Pop 400 000. Football factor =Low.

NSW Central Coast : Pop 350 000. Football factor = Low.

Wollongong : Pop 318 000. Football factor = Low.

Geelong : Pop 309 000. Close : Melbourne, Ballarat, Bendigo. Football factor =High.
Average attendance : 370 000- 400 000. This year they had 10 games, were getting 25 000 -30 000 a lot. Lowest crowds corresponding to interstate clubs. ( Example StKilda game had around 35 000 attendees.
Note: AFL did not build the Cardinia Park Stadium. ( they tipped in 2 Million for the re-development, less than the Vic Gov, and Geelong football club ).

Hobart " Pop 233 000. Close : Launceston ( 93 000 ). Football factor =High.
They...might..be able to draw as much crowd as Gold Coast, but its not a no brainer.
Government money involved, so future funding is an issue if the team is not successful. \

I don't consider that they have been treated disgracefully. The AFL don't go there for the same reason Oasis don't go there. Nothing personal. ( And Oasis still wouldn't go there...if they had the best stadium in the universe. Its a matter of counting dollars. ).

Where does club revenue come from ?

AFL distributions, mainly from tv rights etc.

Memberships.

Sponsorships.

Merchandising.

Game day revenues, concession rights etc.

Tasmania currently splits games between Hobart and Launceston, averaged just over 9,000 and just under 14,000. That’s without spending a cent watching blow ins.

Compares favourable against both gold coast and GWS, averaged just under 17,000 and just over 13,000. That’s after years in the afl with so many gifts it’s laughable.

Tassie will receive the same distribution from the afl, have a record membership and every prospect of great sponsorship and merchandising.

Stop looking for excuses for the afl, Tassie were shafted in favour of states where most people couldn’t care less about the afl. Let’s not make it any worse but piling on and demanding the vandalism of a magnificent area at a cost that Tasmania simply can’t afford. The reports are in and it’s a big no, the afl should drop the demands and get on with building a team on a model that Tasmania want.

As for our north mate, the less said the better.

 

[SG34]

Where does club revenue come from ?

AFL distributions, mainly from tv rights etc.

Memberships.

Sponsorships.

Merchandising.

Game day revenues, concession rights etc.

Tasmania currently splits games between Hobart and Launceston, averaged just over 9,000 and just under 14,000. That’s without spending a cent watching blow ins.

Compares favourable against both gold coast and GWS, averaged just under 17,000 and just over 13,000. That’s after years in the afl with so many gifts it’s laughable.

Tassie will receive the same distribution from the afl, have a record membership and every prospect of great sponsorship and merchandising.

Stop looking for excuses for the afl, Tassie were shafted in favour of states where most people couldn’t care less about the afl. Let’s not make it any worse but piling on and demanding the vandalism of a magnificent area at a cost that Tasmania simply can’t afford. The reports are in and it’s a big no, the afl should drop the demands and get on with building a team on a model that Tasmania want.

As for our north mate, the less said the better.

Attendance is mostly for aesthetics and politics now, not revenue. Less than 20% and falling.
TV .
People watching on TV is a huge factor.
Gambling. People gambling on the games.

AFL don't care about number people paying to go.
Sydney and Gold Coast practically give away tickets for years.

Tiny boutique venues, no problem.

Tasmania is part of footy fabric so people will watch. It makes a good story for TV.

And they shouldn't be forced to build a stadium for the construction mates of AFL cronies either

 

[SinCitySainter]

Attendance is mostly for aesthetics and politics now, not revenue. Less than 20% and falling.
TV .
People watching on TV is a huge factor.
Gambling. People gambling on the games.

AFL don't care about number people paying to go.
Sydney and Gold Coast practically give away tickets for years.

Tiny boutique venues, no problem.

Tasmania is part of footy fabric so people will watch. It makes a good story for TV.

And they shouldn't be forced to build a stadium for the construction mates of AFL cronies either

All of that is essentially true but forgets the key consideration when looking at Tasmania's inclusion in the AFL.
People watching on TV and gambling is where the AFL revenue comes from. Tassie is already watching and gambling. Having a Tassie team does not give them one more AFL fan to watch or gamble. The idea of GWS and GC is that they are growing the number of supporters of the AFL in those markets. The AFL already owns the Tassie market it doesn't need to buy it.

 

[Yawkey way]

All of that is essentially true but forgets the key consideration when looking at Tasmania's inclusion in the AFL.
People watching on TV and gambling is where the AFL revenue comes from. Tassie is already watching and gambling. Having a Tassie team does not give them one more AFL fan to watch or gamble. The idea of GWS and GC is that they are growing the number of supporters of the AFL in those markets. The AFL already owns the Tassie market it doesn't need to buy it.

It’s content, extra games = extra cash.

It’s not just about Tassie watching it’s about afl fans across the country watching, gambling etc. Also if they’re watching afl it’s taking eyes and cash off another sport.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Sorry mate, but I strongly disagree. It's not the team, although it's a couple of decades too late, but it's the bloody stadium. No stadium, no team. What kind of deal is that? This condition was not applied to any other expansion team. The whole world knows we are a relatively financially poor state, so the AFL demand has placed an onerous, and odious, burden on us when our economic woes have reached peak, bleak ****up.

The AFL are treating us disgracefully, dismissively, disdainfully and disrespectfully. But that's not surprising, that is embedded into the AFL's DNA.

With regard to Oasis, after careful consideration, my opening negotiation fee to have to attend one of their gigs is between $800-$1000 per hour for the pain and suffering!

GWS and the suns both built new stadiums , we are not being treated that much differently, this big bag afl holding us to ransom crap needs to stop yes maybe the roof is over the top but we are the ones that actually suggested a roofed stadium to begin with

 

[SG34]

…….Tassie is already watching and gambling. ……. The AFL already owns the Tassie market it doesn't need to buy it.

They’ll gamble more, and we’ll gamble more.
Agree, the AFL own Tassie, like a dog chained to a water tank. Doesn’t mean they do it justice or the whole footy culture.
AFL is just Coorporate. That’s good and bad. For Tassie it’s been bad.

Likely a million plus mainland-situated Aussies with Tasmanian ancestors or Tassie born. Like Ireland, it has a cultural profile far greater than its population would suggest.

 

[SWSainter]

But i asked AI, it can't possibly be wrong , 3 Million in the state.

Yep WA just passed 3 mill, SA is on 1.8m….bring on the new Bunbury team…

 

[SWSainter]

Get to some smaller producers too: Marq, Domaine Naturaliste, Windance, Snake and Herring, etc. All winemaker owned…

 

[Dard Ball Get]

Yep WA just passed 3 mill, SA is on 1.8m….bring on the new Bunbury team…

Spoke to a guy with some connections this week and it sounds like a SW team is more than just a murmur…

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

Spoke to a guy with some connections this week and it sounds like a SW team is more than just a murmur…

The Groote Eylandt Crocodiles fc. will be next?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Where does club revenue come from ?

AFL distributions, mainly from tv rights etc.

Memberships.

Sponsorships.

Merchandising.

Game day revenues, concession rights etc.

Tasmania currently splits games between Hobart and Launceston, averaged just over 9,000 and just under 14,000. That’s without spending a cent watching blow ins.

Compares favourable against both gold coast and GWS, averaged just under 17,000 and just over 13,000. That’s after years in the afl with so many gifts it’s laughable.

Tassie will receive the same distribution from the afl, have a record membership and every prospect of great sponsorship and merchandising.

Stop looking for excuses for the afl, Tassie were shafted in favour of states where most people couldn’t care less about the afl. Let’s not make it any worse but piling on and demanding the vandalism of a magnificent area at a cost that Tasmania simply can’t afford. The reports are in and it’s a big no, the afl should drop the demands and get on with building a team on a model that Tasmania want.

As for our north mate, the less said the better.

AFL would be looking at averages of around the Gold Coast level for Tassie. But the current stadium can't achieve that. Some games would be down on attendance, so they need to be able to have extra's for some to balance it out. Current stadium is too small and can't be expanded.

 

[Yawkey way]

AFL would be looking at averages of around the Gold Coast level for Tassie. But the current stadium can't achieve that. Some games would be down on attendance, so they need to be able to have extra's for some to balance it out. Current stadium is too small and can't be expanded.

Both stadiums are roughly mcg size slightly smaller in width. Capacity is around 20,000 and 15,000.

No matter how you look at it there is no case to build that monstrosity at Macquarie point. The afl are out of control, I hope like hell Tassie don’t fall for it, say no and watch them back down.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Both stadiums are roughly mcg size slightly smaller in width. Capacity is around 20,000 and 15,000.

No matter how you look at it there is no case to build that monstrosity at Macquarie point. The afl are out of control, I hope like hell Tassie don’t fall for it, say no and watch them back down.

I posted a link to the AFL's point of view.
Lets remember they have a history where they remember promises from governments. the train link to Waverly park hit them hard.

 

[gringo2011]

All of that is essentially true but forgets the key consideration when looking at Tasmania's inclusion in the AFL.
People watching on TV and gambling is where the AFL revenue comes from. Tassie is already watching and gambling. Having a Tassie team does not give them one more AFL fan to watch or gamble. The idea of GWS and GC is that they are growing the number of supporters of the AFL in those markets. The AFL already owns the Tassie market it doesn't need to buy it.

The dumb thing about that argument is that it's all purely financial. Tasmania culturally will get massive buy in from locals and bring energy and good will to the game. GC will never get much traction and it's always going to be a financial drain on the league to top up TV rights and keep it playing live to air into enemy territory.

The AFL see areas that are growing as a way to get the sport to grow. Ironically Tassie will keep more people and probably see more people moving there if they aren't excluded from the same entertainment we get on the mainland.

 

[gringo2011]

They’ll gamble more, and we’ll gamble more.
Agree, the AFL own Tassie, like a dog chained to a water tank. Doesn’t mean they do it justice or the whole footy culture.
AFL is just Coorporate. That’s good and bad. For Tassie it’s been bad.

Likely a million plus mainland-situated Aussies with Tasmanian ancestors or Tassie born. Like Ireland, it has a cultural profile far greater than its population would suggest.

I have Tassie mates and I have mates that are from NSW and Queensland but only the Tassie guys seem to have it as a very loud and proud part of their identity. It's good call with the Irish, third generation Irish people are still Irish. An English background seems to get lost quickly.

 

[gringo2011]

Spoke to a guy with some connections this week and it sounds like a SW team is more than just a murmur…

It's been talked about for a long time. Where are they talking now? They talked about Albany about 10 years ago but that would be like Traralgon getting a team in the AFL. Is that Bunbury/Busselton you are talking about?

 

[Dard Ball Get]

It's been talked about for a long time. Where are they talking now? They talked about Albany about 10 years ago but that would be like Traralgon getting a team in the AFL. Is that Bunbury/Busselton you are talking about?

Yessir, the SW is quite a large catchment but would be Bunbury (which has the oval) or Busselton (which has the airport)

 

[True Believer]

Yessir, the SW is quite a large catchment but would be Bunbury (which has the oval) or Busselton (which has the airport)
View attachment 2472534

So to make sure I am understanding this correctly, you're advocating that Bunbury becomes the base for a new AFL team - yes?

I would recommend calling in a company called Kone. They have an operation in Perth and they are a company that service and repair lifts. Yours is clearly not going all the way to your top floor!

 

[Dard Ball Get]

So to make sure I am understanding this correctly, you're advocating that Bunbury becomes the base for a new AFL team - yes?

I would recommend calling in a company called Kone. They have an operation in Perth and they are a company that service and repair lifts. Yours is clearly not going all the way to your top floor!

No

 

[ScrappyDo]

Having a read through the various phantom threads, it seems the Scum are stuck between a rock and a hard place and likely to lose their first pick in their FS since no one higher wants to sell and no one lower can afford to buy and 2026 FRDP's are obvs off the table.
Bit unfortunate

 

[ESPN8 The Ocho]

Yessir, the SW is quite a large catchment but would be Bunbury (which has the oval) or Busselton (which has the airport)
View attachment 2472534

Ideally, base the team at Cowaramup and call them “The Udders”.

 

[Tasmanian saint]

Both stadiums are roughly mcg size slightly smaller in width. Capacity is around 20,000 and 15,000.

No matter how you look at it there is no case to build that monstrosity at Macquarie point. The afl are out of control, I hope like hell Tassie don’t fall for it, say no and watch them back down.

You completely miss the big picture over winter Tasmania more or less turns into a ghost town the economy slows to a snails pace, having a cbd based stadium within walking distance of Hobarts main entertainment district will be a massive game changer, not to mention that Blundstone would be a absolute handbrake on the club forcing them to play there full time

 

[jimmytigs]

Chris Cavanagh and Dan Batten have provided an update on St Kilda’s plans for NGA prospect Kye Fincher in the upcoming draft, via Code Sports:
“St Kilda will not overstretch to match a bid on Next Generation Academy midfielder Kye Fincher if it risks impacting the club’s first-round pick in 2026.”
“St Kilda is a good chance to match a bid from around pick 35 onwards but is likely to let Fincher go elsewhere if a bid comes in the 20s.”
“The Saints don’t hold a second-round pick next year, so carrying a points deficit into next year could impact their first-round pick in what is viewed by scouts as a stronger draft.”