Preview 2025 AFL Draft General Discussion

[Keystone agony]

They're mostly trading up 1 pick if not 2. For the most part, GCS having the pick before them would mean absolutely nothing to these teams?

Which is still better?

 

[Keystone agony]

Trading up 1 pick with a club that's not going to use it. They're not leaping over anyones pick.

This one actually works.

Leap frogging ESS and thats it, probably not competing for the sake players. Little reason.

Depends on plans for Freo's second pick but this is at least netting them something unlike the other ones.

North will be using 3 picks so I don't think this works. They'd probably rather a KPF/KPD double and 46 than moving up for probably the same KPF and losing out on Thredgold to WBD

You need to understand that if your not moving into that spot, someone else is

You also need to understand that you move to the back of the draft and work your way in again, so North move to the back into the 50s and pending bids and who else moves to the back end and order of that it slowly moves in again

We dont know who will be available or gone at any given pick or what the draft boards are for teams - ie roos. Your making assumptions that you dont know to be 100% sure

29 also moves back into around 25 as suns picks are likely wiped out. So it benefits both, gives north a better pick at 21 over 25 but also gives suns more points

 

[Barrybran]

36 would be included id say

I also cant find that herald sun article

15 + 36 = 1290
21 + 27 = 1254

No benefit for Suns.

It’s 18, not 15.

18 makes more sense than 15 to me as well however if the plan was to on-trade that pick to West Coast, I can see why Essendon would target 15. It doesn't work for the Suns though.

Where they can make it work is by pre-trading with Collingwood. 36 + 52 for 39 + 45 gets the Suns into position to trade 15 + 39 for 21 + 27, generating points on both trades. If there is any merit to the 5 + 15 news, that trade probably looks something like 5 + 15 for 2 + 41, leaving Essendon with 2, 6, 30, 39 + 41.

 

[jdwood]

Where has this 2 for 5+15 scuttlebutt come from?

Can’t see it is happening and don’t want it to tbh. The only one I’d trade up for is Duursma and he’ll be gone.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Thoughts on this mock?

Trades

• WCE Trade Pick 13 + 34 for CAR 9
• GC trade pick 15 for ESS 21 + 27
• WCE trade Pick 2 for ESS 5 + 15
• ADEL trade pick 16 + F1 for CAR 11 + F3

Pick 1 WCE Willem Duursma
Pick 2 ESS Sullivan Robey
Pick 3 RIC CDT
Pick 4 RIC Sam Grlj
Pick 5 WCE Sam Cumming
Pick 6 ESS Xavier Taylor
Pick 7 MEL Dyson sharp
Pick 8 MEL Jacob Farrow
Pick 9 WCE Lachy Dovaston
Pick 10 HAW Ollie Greeves
Pick 11 ADE Oskar Taylor
Pick 12 GWS Harley Barker
Pick 13 WB Noah Hibbens
Pick 14 WCE Aidan Schubert
Pick 15 CAR Josh Linsday
Pick 16 GEE Mitch Marsh
Pick 17 FRE Jevan Phillopou
Pick 18 HAW Latrelle picket
Pick 19 NM Max Kondogiannis
Pick 20 NM Archie Ludowyke

Why in the heck would WC trade pick 2 for 5 and whatever? It’s a shallow draft to begin with. And then when you look at the data, a pick 2 would give you a much greater chance of a 200+ player than a 5 / mid teens selection would. In a shallow draft to boot.

West Coast need best available. End of story. This fantasy of clubs giving away early draft picks is total nonsense!! Same with the Tigers and their 3 & 4 picks.

 

[Elite Pete]

Where has this 2 for 5+15 scuttlebutt come from?

Can’t see it is happening and don’t want it to tbh. The only one I’d trade up for is Duursma and he’ll be gone.

I think it’s been mentioned a few times hear and there but Cal on Gettable a couple of weeks ago used it loosely as a possible scenario.

When talking about Essendon pick 5 and 6.

“I don't think they'll move back. They're looking at moving up. So they'll take those first five picks inside the 30s.

So five, six, 21, 27 and 30. Can they do it? Gold Coast's pick is up for grabs at 15.

The Brisbane pick is up for grabs 17. Can they get a little bit higher and then use that pick to even nudge even higher than that? And is that something that would tempt West Coast or Richmond?

I don't think they're going to be able to get pick one out of Richmond, West Coast. Is pick two more gettable? Potentially.

 

[Keystone agony]

18 makes more sense than 15 to me as well however if the plan was to on-trade that pick to West Coast, I can see why Essendon would target 15. It doesn't work for the Suns though.

Where they can make it work is by pre-trading with Collingwood. 36 + 52 for 39 + 45 gets the Suns into position to trade 15 + 39 for 21 + 27, generating points on both trades. If there is any merit to the 5 + 15 news, that trade probably looks something like 5 + 15 for 2 + 41, leaving Essendon with 2, 6, 30, 39 + 41.

Would you give up 2+41 for 5+15 though? Some were saying just for 2 was not enough

 

[THE_GUN]

I think it’s been mentioned a few times hear and there but Cal on Gettable a couple of weeks ago used it loosely as a possible scenario.

When talking about Essendon pick 5 and 6.

“I don't think they'll move back. They're looking at moving up. So they'll take those first five picks inside the 30s.

So five, six, 21, 27 and 30. Can they do it? Gold Coast's pick is up for grabs at 15.

The Brisbane pick is up for grabs 17. Can they get a little bit higher and then use that pick to even nudge even higher than that? And is that something that would tempt West Coast or Richmond?

I don't think they're going to be able to get pick one out of Richmond, West Coast. Is pick two more gettable? Potentially.

Personally i believe Richmond's pick #4 will be up for trade
But with CDT?Robey off the board not sure which team would trade up

 

[Elite Pete]

Personally i believe Richmond's pick #4 will be up for trade
But with CDT?Robey off the board not sure which team would trade up

Yeah and if you can slide back and get Grlj it would be perfect.

 

[hammer180]

Personally i believe Richmond's pick #4 will be up for trade
But with CDT?Robey off the board not sure which team would trade up

Crows for sharp?
Not sure we can get enough value though

 

[THE_GUN]

I think it would have to me Melbourne if they are after Sharp

 

[Barrybran]

Would you give up 2+41 for 5+15 though? Some were saying just for 2 was not enough

It comes down to what both clubs want. There's a world where such a trade nets us Duursma, Sharp/Cumming/CDT, and two of Farrow/Dovaston/Schubert. Substitute 15 for an F1 and we have an extra pick in a draft with better WA talent.

I thought Essendon would say no to 2 + 13 for 5 + 6 but Twomey suggested that we wouldn't be keen, so I'm not confident that and deal for 2 goes ahead, but 5 + 15 was an idea that was floated.

 

[txbyhull]

It comes down to what both clubs want. There's a world where such a trade nets us Duursma, Sharp/Cumming/CDT, and two of Farrow/Dovaston/Schubert. Substitute 15 for an F1 and we have an extra pick in a draft with better WA talent.

I thought Essendon would say no to 2 + 13 for 5 + 6 but Twomey suggested that we wouldn't be keen, so I'm not confident that and deal for 2 goes ahead, but 5 + 15 was an idea that was floated.

I was pretty surprised when he said that. I’d always considered Essendon to be the ones to knock back 2,13 for 5,6

 

[Keystone agony]

It comes down to what both clubs want. There's a world where such a trade nets us Duursma, Sharp/Cumming/CDT, and two of Farrow/Dovaston/Schubert. Substitute 15 for an F1 and we have an extra pick in a draft with better WA talent.

I thought Essendon would say no to 2 + 13 for 5 + 6 but Twomey suggested that we wouldn't be keen, so I'm not confident that and deal for 2 goes ahead, but 5 + 15 was an idea that was floated.

Think 15 is starting to be borderline to getting a F1, probably more so an F2

15 gets the 19th best player in a poor pool. Id assume next years 25th best player is just as good as this years 19th best. It might even be further down like 30-35 matches this years 19th

Obviousily need to pay a smidge overs for someone you like alot or its expected by the club trading in, but how much im not sure

 

[Barrybran]

Think 15 is starting to be borderline to getting a F1, probably more so an F2

15 gets the 19th best player in a poor pool. Id assume next years 25th best player is just as good as this years 19th best. It might even be further down like 30-35 matches this years 19th

Obviousily need to pay a smidge overs for someone you like alot or expected, but how much im not sure

It won't happen with an F2. The reports are we want an F1.

 

[Keystone agony]

It won't happen with an F2. The reports are we want an F1.

Youd be taking pick 15 in then

 

[Barrybran]

Youd be taking pick 15 in then

It comes down to what both clubs want.

 

[Keystone agony]

Arent we discussing 2+41 for 5+15

Are you saying eagles only do that if they have an F1 lined up for 13 or 15?

If so id say its unlikely to be a straight swap and also F1s are rare that are being considered in trade. Only saints, Crows and pies talked about so far and that was for higher picks 9 and 11

 

[txbyhull]

Arent we discussing 2+41 for 5+15

Are you saying eagles only do that if they have an F1 lined up for 13 or 15?

If so id say its unlikely to be a straight swap and also F1s are rare that are being considered in trade. Only saints, Crows and pies talked about so far and that was for higher picks 9 and 11

2,41 for 5,15 leaves us with 1,5,13,15,34 when we won’t be using one of those 13,15 picks likely. We’d want to be turning 13,15 into 9 or 11 and a future asset whether that’s us doing it or Essendon doing it for us. Given we’d end up with no bid matching assets, the trade doesn’t work

 

[Keystone agony]

2,41 for 5,15 leaves us with 1,5,13,15,34 when we won’t be using one of those 13,15 picks likely. We’d want to be turning 13,15 into 9 or 11 and a future asset whether that’s us doing it or Essendon doing it for us. Given we’d end up with no bid matching assets, the trade doesn’t work

Blues dont really have anything better than a F4 to go with 9 for 13+15

 

[Barrybran]

2,41 for 5,15 leaves us with 1,5,13,15,34 when we won’t be using one of those 13,15 picks likely. We’d want to be turning 13,15 into 9 or 11 and a future asset whether that’s us doing it or Essendon doing it for us. Given we’d end up with no bid matching assets, the trade doesn’t work

We haven't committed to any of our NGA/FS players. Based on reports, I suspect we would prefer an F1 over a fourth first rounder this year but if we did have four picks inside 15, we'll just take the one player and rookie whoever we can.

 

[txbyhull]

Blues dont really have anything better than a F4 to go with 9 for 13+15

I didn’t say it had to be from Carlton

 

[Keystone agony]

I didn’t say it had to be from Carlton

Who else is there to trade 13 and 15 to for an F1? I doubt the teams with the top 8 picks arent giving up an F1

 

[txbyhull]

Who else is there to trade 13 and 15 to for an F1? I doubt the teams with the top 8 picks arent giving up an F1

13 OR 15, not both. One would be used to move up the board with Carlton. I think I see where your confusion is coming from

 

[Keystone agony]

13 OR 15, not both. One would be used to move up the board with Carlton. I think I see where your confusion is coming from

But you said you wanted an F1 aswell

These goal post shift quicker than....

How are you going to get an F1 whilst giving a worse pick?