Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Ninja Worrier]

On the back of the rumours I've watched some VFL highlights and quite like Tobyn Murray....clean, fast, knows where the goals are and Corrigan stated he can run 14-15km a game.

Almost a week out I think my wishlist is:

Dean
Ison
Murray
Ryan Eyers - rookie/ SSP

Plus Adel F1

 

[Coona Blues]

This is what happens when posters listen to what could only loosely be described as 'casual draft watchers' rating Dean in the mid-late teens for months.

Everyone's up in arms that we're probably going to have to match a top 5-6 bid on him despite that being a completely reasonable price to pay based on his performances this year.

Yeah, Nah!

Nick Daicos went pick 4, despite being a clear pick one.

Dean is good, but is getting all of the press. “They” are doing their best to push him up the draft. All media outlets running decent spreads etc. Where is the push for Uwland, Patterson and, in particular, Annable? In this day and age, the playmakers and key forwards get the high picks.

Key defenders rarely appear at the pointy end of the draft. Ones that are “undersized” in this day and age, are even less likely.

With what has become “standard” discount, Harry Dean is an 8-12 range pick in this draft. He likely/hopefully (will be) a gun. Most, if not all, of the teams picking before us are well served with established or developing KPD. Even the “battlers” have made significant recent development in that area and have greater needs. The only club with a “great” need to bid would be Melbourne.

Then there is the factoring in of the “premium” required to match in the new system which precludes much if any creativity trading to accumulate points.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting Harry is a late first, but actively trying to push him up the list to validate an opinion does little for our Big Footy community.

It is not unreasonable to “expect” the bid to eat our first pick, but leave our second intact or marginally pushed back. What we do need is precise information from the AFL regarding the rules next year for Cody. If we can only use two picks from the first round BUT match any shortcomings from our ‘27 draft hand, we are fine. If we need to trade up for another future first we need to know NOW.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yeah, Nah!

Nick Daicos went pick 4, despite being a clear pick one.

Dean is good, but is getting all of the press. “They” are doing their best to push him up the draft. All media outlets running decent spreads etc. Where is the push for Uwland, Patterson and, in particular, Annable? In this day and age, the playmakers and key forwards get the high picks.

Key defenders rarely appear at the pointy end of the draft. Ones that are “undersized” in this day and age, are even less likely.

With what has become “standard” discount, Harry Dean is an 8-12 range pick in this draft. He likely/hopefully (will be) a gun. Most, if not all, of the teams picking before us are well served with established or developing KPD. Even the “battlers” have made significant recent development in that area and have greater needs. The only club with a “great” need to bid would be Melbourne.

Then there is the factoring in of the “premium” required to match in the new system which precludes much if any creativity trading to accumulate points.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting Harry is a late first, but actively trying to push him up the list to validate an opinion does little for our Big Footy community.

It is nit unreasonable to “expect” the bid to eat our first pick, but leave our second intact or marginally pushed back. What we do need is precise information from the AFL regarding the rules next year for Cody. If we can only use two picks from the first round BUT match any shortcomings from our ‘27 draft hand, we are fine. If we need to trade up for another future first we need to know NOW.

This is all complete nonsense mumbo jumbo.

Nick Daicos was not a 'clear number 1' at all. JHF was rightly or wrongly rated ahead of him due to the unique circumstances that plagued that draft, it wasn't at all surprising. Also Sam Darcy was bid on at two that year which proves even amongst the club tied prospects Daicos still wasn't a clear number 1.

And yes, plenty of people in here suggested Dean was a mid-late first rounder before Twomey and co broke the news that he's expected to go in the top handful.

The Dean sliding crew have now set up a classic Carlton fan situation where we have a crowd that are ready to call for Austin's head again if we match a bid in the top handful because they're convinced he's not worth that despite clearly being rated by recruiters and draft watchers around that mark.

There's no coordinated campaign to make us bid more on Dean by the media, he's just a very good prospect who's rightly being talked about because the bid will certainly shape the first round of the draft for multiple teams.

 

[Jazny]

No relation to a more controversial former Tasmanian draft pick?

No.

 

[Jimmae]

I watch the draft closely and Dean is ahead of all those guys, except maybe Naughton. Tauru was very raw and drafted more on athleticism. Balta and Taylor were taken in the 20s. SDK and Cox not as well performed as Dean.

Denver Granger Barras was a good prospect but think Dean is better. DGB always struggled 1 on 1, which isnt ideal for a KPD prospect.

No KPD prospect since Weitering that I would take over Dean.

I would have taken Naughton, Balta, and Tauru over him, without hesitation.

I didn't include DGB, and he was a reach in that draft.

 

[Jimmae]

If we can only use two picks from the first round BUT match any shortcomings from our ‘27 draft hand, we are fine.

Agree with the rest of the post for the most part, but we have more future prospects in 2027 and 2028, quite significant ones in fact.

This is all complete nonsense mumbo jumbo.

Nick Daicos was not a 'clear number 1' at all. JHF was rightly or wrongly rated ahead of him due to the unique circumstances that plagued that draft, it wasn't at all surprising. Also Sam Darcy was bid on at two that year which proves even amongst the club tied prospects Daicos still wasn't a clear number 1.

And yes, plenty of people in here suggested Dean was a mid-late first rounder before Twomey and co broke the news that he's expected to go in the top handful.

The Dean sliding crew have now set up a classic Carlton fan situation where we have a crowd that are ready to call for Austin's head again if we match a bid in the top handful because they're convinced he's not worth that despite clearly being rated by recruiters and draft watchers around that mark.

There's no coordinated campaign to make us bid more on Dean by the media, he's just a very good prospect who's rightly being talked about because the bid will certainly shape the first round of the draft for multiple teams.

The mumbo jumbo is that talls are worth more, which is what saw Darcy go first. GWS then avoided the double bid, which clubs do not forget easily.

JHF vs Daicos is a more significant argument, but Daicos had production that directly translated to AFL level and all the necessary awareness, but North went mumbo jumbo thinking JHF's psyche couldn't handle being pick 2.

The coordinated campaign in the media is simple: Carlton gets clicks, especially Carlton getting absurd outcomes, good or bad. That's all they need to start rolling out lavish claims. It's not a conspiracy.

 

[DZ4]

This is all complete nonsense mumbo jumbo.

Nick Daicos was not a 'clear number 1' at all. JHF was rightly or wrongly rated ahead of him due to the unique circumstances that plagued that draft, it wasn't at all surprising. Also Sam Darcy was bid on at two that year which proves even amongst the club tied prospects Daicos still wasn't a clear number 1.

And yes, plenty of people in here suggested Dean was a mid-late first rounder before Twomey and co broke the news that he's expected to go in the top handful.

The Dean sliding crew have now set up a classic Carlton fan situation where we have a crowd that are ready to call for Austin's head again if we match a bid in the top handful because they're convinced he's not worth that despite clearly being rated by recruiters and draft watchers around that mark.

There's no coordinated campaign to make us bid more on Dean by the media, he's just a very good prospect who's rightly being talked about because the bid will certainly shape the first round of the draft for multiple teams.

No one is suggesting that Dean will slide, just that he clearly isn’t in the top 5 players in this draft and won’t be bid on within those selections.

I have him in that 7-11 range but would reasonably expect a bid anywhere from 6 onwards. In the past players tied to clubs have gone lower than expected and not higher.

There’d be plenty of reasons to call for Austin’s head but getting in a top KPD prospect, and the son of a Carlton gun at that, in a weak draft, is not one of them.

 

[agro]

Austin will have done a great job this draft if he can engineer a pick another pick in the top 15 other than Dean.

 

[Stamos]

Austin will have done a great job this draft if he can engineer a pick another pick in the top 15 other than Dean.

Or a 2026 F1?

 

[King Patty]

I think bid is likely to come from Tigers....after they have bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable
If not tigers then maybe Demons, Don't think Essendon need another key defender, would only be bidding to keep carlton honest, whereas Demons have a need.

whats the strategy trade out of both 9 + 11 for points / future picks or keep picks and match then move back a little and get a pick in before Ison?

 

[Stamos]

whats the strategy trade out of both 9 + 11 for points / future picks or keep picks and match then move back a little and get a pick in before Ison?

Nobody knows yet.
It will depend a bit on how early the bid comes (we will need him to slide at least to a point where we don't need to use both picks), but also the trades with West Coast and Adelaide floated in the Hun only work for us if we can do them both. There's no point trading 9 down for points if we can't trade 11 into a 2026 1st rounder.

 

[agro]

Or a 2026 F1?

You might want that - but I want another First rounder now.

 

[Stamos]

You might want that - but I want another First rounder now.

I'm not going to claim to be knowledgeable enough to have a preference.

I know there are knocks on this draft (and very differing orders of players), and next year is considered stronger. Also suggestions of changes to the system for next year, which could only happen under an administration that is as incompetent as the current one.

But to your original post, it won't really be up to Austin to 'engineer' a pick. We have what currency we have, after a huge number of moves.
It will be completely reliant on how early/late a bid comes, which Austin will have minimal influence over.

Much more important will be nailing whatever pick we end up with (if we end up drafting a 3rd player this year).

 

[Stamos]

Lol my response was before I saw Veruka added.

 

[macky99]

This is what happens when posters listen to what could only loosely be described as 'casual draft watchers' rating Dean in the mid-late teens for months.

Everyone's up in arms that we're probably going to have to match a top 5-6 bid on him despite that being a completely reasonable price to pay based on his performances this year.

l believe you are missing the point here, most posters acknowledge Dean is a very good prospect, the issue is whilst other clubs have brought in the Ashcrofts & Darcy etc for a bargain we are paying our 1st plus, potentially using our other 1st depending on the bid to obtain one player same with Walker using multiple 1st rounders, just bad timing for us on the rule changes.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I think using 9 to match and letting 11 slide, is no longer a viable option, now a Dean bid looks all but certain in the 4-7 range. That 2nd pick would slide into the 20s, if not the 30s. Good chance it gets gobbled up by an Ison bid, and we can't even use it.

Going down that route would just be really poor with regards to maximising value from the points system.

 

[King Patty]

l believe you are missing the point here, most posters acknowledge Dean is a very good prospect, the issue is whilst other clubs have brought in the Ashcrofts & Darcy etc for a bargain we are paying our 1st plus, potentially using our other 1st depending on the bid to obtain one player same with Walker using multiple 1st rounders, just bad timing for us on the rule changes.

Its crazy too that the AFL are making next year harder again to match f/s academy without even having this year play out.
Its like some clubs get a free kick (Daicos/Ashcrofts) and then others have to pay through the nose for the same opportunity. At least Blues have Swans F1 which will help match Walker Bid

 

[Stamos]

I think using 9 to match and letting 11 slide, is no longer a viable option, now a Dean bid looks all but certain in the 4-7 range. That 2nd pick would slide into the 20s, if not the 30s. Good chance it gets gobbled up by an Ison bid, and we can't even use it.

Going down that route would just be really poor with regards to maximising value from the points system.

It could be that there just aren’t any offers of F1s.
There’s only been suggestions of 3 clubs with any interest of moving a 26F1 into this year, and who knows how strong any of that is (especially since such a trade will have to be done before they know what player they can get.

 

[marcmurphy3]

It could be that there just aren’t any offers of F1s.
There’s only been suggestions of 3 clubs with any interest of moving a 26F1 into this year, and who knows how strong any of that is (especially since such a trade will have to be done before they know what player they can get.

There's 18 teams and already several whispers. Im confident we'll have options to grab an F1. Our pick is probably the earliest one for sale which also helps.

My concern is more a Dean bid coming so early that its hard to match without going into deficit, if we trade for an F1.

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Lol my response was before I saw Veruka added.

Veruca salt - seether
Great song

 

[Bronze]

We have multiple first rounders and later picks for the next two years as well. Suspect someone would throw us a late second or early third for what the perceive to be a favourable swap of future picks. And if we get lucky and sort our shit out, that future swap might end up favouring us and then we win twice over.

haha no.....we're not deducting points out of our 2026 Round 1 selections or trading backwards.

2026 is a considerably stronger draft by all reports plus there is a certain Cody Walker we need to pay for.

 

[Michael Jezz]

Just for those who haven’t seen my musings on this topic previously. In my view, inference can be made to suggest Cowan will not play for the Devils:

1: he is from the northwest of the state, the team is from the south. Parochialism dominates in Tasmania.
2: he was a Carlton fan growing up. Yes, yes, I know… JSOS. But it means Carlton is as likely to be close to his heart as Tasmania.

I wouldn’t be writing him off as necessarily Devils-bound.

Money Talks...Sentiment Walks!!!
Just like TDK

 

[Uncle Fester]

Or a 2026 F1?

i cant help but feel that the we will trade out 9 and 11 for points value this year and some further decent currency next year. theres essentially no way we get higher and the picks are at that perfect range for sliders that teams will have fallen in love with, especially if they think they will be in contention next year - adelaide & north - im looking at you first, but there will be others who only have 2026 collateral to use

 

[BlueLocke]

Money Talks...Sentiment Walks!!!
Just like TDK

The extra $5,000,000 in the cap is an extraordinary advantage - especially when half their list is draftees. Whatever we offer Cowan, they can double it without blinking.

He can live in the North and have a private helicopter take him to training.

 

[Stamos]

i cant help but feel that the we will trade out 9 and 11 for points value this year and some further decent currency next year. theres essentially no way we get higher and the picks are at that perfect range for sliders that teams will have fallen in love with, especially if they think they will be in contention next year - adelaide & north - im looking at you first, but there will be others who only have 2026 collateral to use

Yeah, although the problem for "sliders" is, clubs will have to trade by the time a Dean bid is matched, so won't be able to guarantee a specific player.

What we do know is, Austin will have worked out deals and contingencies. He's been pretty active and aggressive in moving picks.