AFL Introduces Wild Card Round

[The Punter]

Sydney couldn't move out of 10th for the final round this year. Reckon they'd have fielded a full list in the last round, knowing everyone in the top 6 would get a bye, and that whoever ended up 7th was fighting their guts out in the final game?

What incentive did they have this year with the existing system?

 

[Corn Cobbers]

I did, we flogged Freo and saw off three champions of the club. One of my favourite days at the footy ever.

One of the lowest moments in the history of the sport

 

[The Punter]

One of the lowest moments in the history of the sport

Takes an effort to actually outdo most of the hyperbole in this thread, but here it is

 

[Carn The Berries]

I would encourage the league to make sure it doesn't happen, it's an ugly and unnecessary spectacle and it does ruin fantasy football which has its grand finals that week

Might be "virtual matches" to you but there's $$$ at stake

Again, virtual matches, even if they're for money, should be the absolute least of the league's concerns.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Takes an effort to actually outdo most of the hyperbole in this thread, but here it is

That's what I was thinking.

Coach does the best thing by his team... Stop the presses...

Guarantee if there are sides that can't move from 7th/8th next season the exact same thing will happen. If coaches don't, then they are not doing the best thing by their clubs.

 

[Carn The Berries]

One of the lowest moments in the history of the sport

I'd say a club saying to the AFL "we'll tell you where we're playing in Round 0" is far worse for the integrity of the AFL than a coach looking after player welfare.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Again, virtual matches, even if they're for money, should be the absolute least of the league's concerns.

That's a very selfish attitude towards an activity enjoyed by hundreds of thousands of fans

But leaving that aside... do you remember why the pre-finals bye was brought in?

 

[joe444]

What incentive did they have this year with the existing system?

Jeez, punter, I'm just responding to the claim that the wildcard prevents teams from resting players because it protects the bye. (cf. retorting)

 

[greatwhiteshark]

I would like to congratulate the AFL for not being stuck in the past, being innovative and most importantly, not listening to populist conservatives views.

The wildcard weekend is well overdue.

Why play meaningless home and away games late in the season when we can have teams battling to get a wild card berth. Or teams trying to secure a top 6 position.

Many home and away games that had very little consequence would now have real meaning.

As for “rewarding mediocrely”. In fact it’s punishing mediocrity. Because if your measure of success is making the 8, from now on only the top 6 have a guaranteed place in the final 8. How is that rewarding mediocrity?

You can even argue that the current system rewards mediocrity, because a team that finished 8th has equal mathematical change as a team that finished 5th.

“Cash grab” is another empty slogan that some are throwing around. This cash they’re taking about is what keeps the AFL, from the top tier down to the local clubs, going.

The VFL almost went broke in the 80s because they didn’t understand that they must grow the game if they wanted it to survive and thrive.

What about keeping the game’s traditions? I’m all for keeping traditions, but the current finals 8 has nothing to do with tradition. in fact the finals system had gone through so many changed in the last 150 years that we all lost count. And each time many people riled against it. Some things never change.

This is the Eddie Mcguire thinking, why stop at top 10, why not top 16 teams still be alive late in the year.
As for meaningless games well they start about round 14 in every football league and always have, should we just stop the season then so these meaningless games are not required to be played at all?

The I want everything changed crowd confuse it with evolution. Evolution is playing the exact same sport but doing it bigger, better, faster.
The AFL has not evolved at all, all they do is just simply change the sport.
I mean is there a point that it cannot change? What about a round ball? Would that still be ok and not being stuck in the past? No High marks? Just play blockbusters only and you don't even have to play everyone once? We are already at the point of trying is good enough even though you dropped the ball.

You are not against change just because you don't like something, and you don't need to congratulate the AFL for not listening to the populist views. They have been doing whatever they like to the sport for 20 years without one ounce of consulting anyone.

Each to their own of course but I don't see this as anything positive at all for the sport.

 

[Carn The Berries]

That's a very selfish attitude towards an activity enjoyed by hundreds of thousands of fans

But leaving that aside... do you remember why the pre-finals bye was brought in?

Yep... Because gambling companies got fleeced and didn't like it

You're confusing my lack of care for Super Coach results with thinking the pre-finals bye is a good idea. It was unecessary when it was brought in.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

I'd say a club saying to the AFL "we'll tell you where we're playing in Round 0" is far worse for the integrity of the AFL than a coach looking after player welfare.

Not disagreeing, round O is rubbish anyway

And I've got no problems with what Lyon did, that's why we brought in the pre finals bye so he wouldn't have to do it

 

[joe444]

This team should be the permanent wildcard.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Not disagreeing, round O is rubbish anyway

And I've got no problems with what Lyon did, that's why we brought in the pre finals bye so he wouldn't have to do it

You actually were disagreeing with that...

One of the lowest moments in the history of the sport

 

[Corn Cobbers]

You actually were disagreeing with that...

Nah read it all again

 

[joe444]

Question 1: Should a 10th placed team be given the opportunity to win the championship in an 18-team, 23 game season?

Question 2: Should a finals system be devised on the assumption that certain participants are unable to win it, and it would be a travesty if they did, so it's okay to include them for entertainment value?

My answer would be No to question 1, so question 2 is moot.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Question 1: Should a 10th placed team be given the opportunity to win the championship in an 18-team, 23 game season?

Question 2: Should a finals system be devised on the assumption that certain participants are unable to win it, and it would be a travesty if they did, so it's okay to include them for entertainment value?

My answer would be No to question 1, so question 2 is moot.

Should never be more than half, final 10 will look clunky until there are at least 20 teams

 

[Ricketz]

Just absolutely bloody ridiculous. Mediocrity is the word that best fits.

Instead of fixing the unfairness of the fixture that we already suffer, it's about to get much worse. I was hoping for some meaningful changes to the academy system, or the corruption of the draft with free agency and trade compensation being totally arbitrary.

But no, just another lever to increase MCG games, mark my words, Geelong will not get a guaranteed home final against any Melbourne team in this scenario.

So now, we head into the next four or five years where Brisbane will dominate. One of the worst drafts this year, followed by a couple of years of compromised Tassie drafts - it's the Hawthorn three peat era again. If you're not already stocked, good luck, your club is in for some pain. But hey, your shit list will still make finals from 10th so it's all good hey?

Except there won't be much to get excited about come finals time. The quality - which is bog average already - will be thinned out by another two games that won't interest anyone because those teams will have almost zero chance of any success from that position. The season proper won't mean much either.

I will be unpacking my VPN and watching for free, sorry Kayo - you're not getting my cash for a substandard product. Sorry Geelong, I can't justify my membership for games that just won't mean anything.

 

[JackFlash]

I don't see the problem? It's just a money spinner and the AFL have also worked out that it's not good having no footy at all before the real finals begin. All they have to do now is go nighttime for the Grand Final! Rip it off like a band aid and do it, like the wild card idea people will get used to it.

 

[justlookingaround]

This would have inevitably been the finals system once the league is at 20 teams anyway, and we’re at a point where the whole top 8 is contending for the flag and good teams often miss finals on percentage or 4 pts, honestly I don’t have an issue with it.

 

[Ricketz]

Very true. When you factor in home ground advantage and the fact that some teams are better than others, as well as travel, the system becomes even fairer because the probabilities are spread out even more. Using betting odds from betfair (and calculating the probabilities based on that) is probably the best way. For exmaple a team starting at $1.30 is a 76% chance of winning.

But that's not how you work out the probabilities of the finals system. That's because when looking at the way the system works you are looking at double chances, how many knockout finals are required to win etc which is why, for the purposes of the exercise we assume all matches are 50-50 (even if in reality they're not).

So, for example, the old finals 5 system that existed from 1972-1990 was as follows:

1st - 37.5%
2nd -18.7%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 6.25%
5th - 6.25%

Even if in reality they are not.

So, your numbers are meaningless, not based in reality.

 

[Foxx]

Yes but it comes with one of these “*”.

In your case “**”.

Only if you dont believe its actually a top 10 finals series.

 

[Ambrosia]

If it was about making money you would play an extra round of footy which will bring in 5 times more money than two mickey mouse finals.

I was referring to the NBA in that comment.

But this is 100% about making money nothing surer. They just added a round with gather round now they've squeezed another two prime time tv slots on an off week

 

[new to this]

When it comes to this round just don’t go it will be a big embarrassment to them.

 

[Ricketz]

Well, when you increase the teams in the finals, the probabilities are shared amongst more teams. This is not unusual, or controversial.

When the final-6 came in, 1st had their chances of winning the premiership reduced from 37.5% to 25%. 6th all of a sudden had a 6.25% chance, up from zero.

When the final-8 came in, 1st chances dropped further to 18.75%.

The AFL has increased the amount of teams in the finals numerous times. This is not unusual in the slightest.

This is just horrible logic and maths. Totally incorrect.

If you are going to use probability you would need to do a like for like statistical analysis of past data. The probability of a team winning from each position on the ladder under our current system will give you a baseline, and then you can start extrapolating about how it will effect the teams in 7-10. 7 and 8 will get worse chances, their probability is diluted by having to play an extra game with no bye. 9 and 10 will have roughly the same chance as 7 and 8. The probability of each ladder position from 6 to 1 will remain unchanged as their finals series won't change at all.

 

[MaxiBont]

Why should 7th have the punishment of playing another game when they may be 3-4 wins better than 10th?

It makes no sense.