Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[The Return of the Paf]

That's not a bad spot to be stuck in in the grand scheme of things.

Yeah, you have got to love skimping on the odd first rounder every year or so - just what this club needs.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Yeah, you have got to love skimping on the odd first rounder every year or so - just what this club needs.

If we can't trade ahead/down or out of our current position and we end up just getting Dean, Ison and a later kid or two we're still getting two quality prospects in Dean and Ison who will both slot in to a major list hole. Not a disastrous outcome by any means.

Everyone would rather we get an extra pick or more points for next year but that's not up to us, it's up to the clubs ahead of us and where they bid on Dean and Ison.

 

[Jimmae]

Pies interested in our pick 9 for Sharp, apologies if already posted.

So F1, 39, 45, 56 for 9?

By the time it's in play for us, it's more like F1, 34, 39, 48 for 12. That reads like us giving up on getting a decent 3rd prospect in this draft.

I also think the latest Sharp goes is Melbourne's picks, not ours.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

 

[We may never win again]

So F1, 39, 45, 56 for 9?

By the time it's in play for us, it's more like F1, 34, 39, 48 for 12. That reads like us giving up on getting a decent 3rd prospect in this draft.

I also think the latest Sharp goes is Melbourne's picks, not ours.

If we had the option I’d leap at that, pies could easily be giving us a top 10 pick in a much stronger draft

 

[Jimmae]

If we had the option I’d leap at that, pies could easily be giving us a top 10 pick in a much stronger draft

If that does grant them access to Sharp, that fixes their midfield concerns into the future, but they also have an academy prospect in this draft so I'm not sure how they're paying for that, perhaps through deficit?

 

[Blue and Silver]

I think that 9 will be traded, but it won't be clear to who until teams suss out who Rich, Ess and Mel are taking, so they have a good idea who will be there

 

[tragic]

Pies interested in our pick 9 for Sharp, apologies if already posted.

Cal Twomey thinks he could get through to Hawthorn if Essendon don't select him so could be in play.

 

[We may never win again]

If that does grant them access to Sharp, that fixes their midfield concerns into the future, but they also have an academy prospect in this draft so I'm not sure how they're paying for that, perhaps through deficit?

From memory none of their academy prospects are likely to go in the top 25 so they shouldn’t have too much issue finding another way to manage the points if needs be

 

[Stamos]

So F1, 39, 45, 56 for 9?

By the time it's in play for us, it's more like F1, 34, 39, 48 for 12. That reads like us giving up on getting a decent 3rd prospect in this draft.

I also think the latest Sharp goes is Melbourne's picks, not ours.

I doubt they’d give us all 3 late picks.

 

[Stamos]

The Dean bid in particular is ridiculous. I honestly think West Coast are running the rule through him at pick 13 if he's still available, while Richmond are considering a bid on him after moving down for Grlj, so I think it highlights the lower band of his actual bid range.

I’ll be extremely pleasantly surprised if you’re right, but this is reading as a delusionally optimistic.

 

[ctwenty1]

I’ll be extremely pleasantly surprised if you’re right, but this is reading as a delusionally optimistic.

Important to speak things to the universe in order for them to manifest

"number 17 in 2026, number 17 in 2026, number 17 in 2026"

 

[GT619]

Voss wanted to use our first rounder last year to trade for Dan Houston which meant we wouldn't have been able to draft Jagga Smith

What?

 

[Jimmae]

I doubt they’d give us all 3 late picks.

Then they have nothing of value to make that trade worthwhile, because they would be pushing deep into finals again in 2026.

I’ll be extremely pleasantly surprised if you’re right, but this is reading as a delusionally optimistic.

I am at worst identifying the range as 6-13, or 9-16 at that point in the draft, with rumours swirling that West Coast are looking to trade up pick 13 anyway.

It isn't Twomey's 3-7, but it's well within in the scope of everyone else's 9-14.

For that arrogant insistence, you can stay on ignore.

 

[Stamos]

It isn't Twomey's 3-7, but it's well within in the scope of everyone else's 9-14.

For that arrogant insistence, you can stay on ignore.

Everybody else?

Aside from Twomey (3-7), the phantoms at The Age (7) and the Hun (6) and FoxSports reporting today (“if not West Coast almost certainly Richmond”), who else is there?
Who is claiming 9-14?
You think I’m arrogant?

Edit: ESPN phantom bid at 7

 

[Bletch]

Pies interested in our pick 9 for Sharp, apologies if already posted.

I can't see how they'd do it. While it might be based around their F1, we'd still want points back in this draft to cover bids. And they'd want to keep at least one of their later picks to cover a bid on McCarthy (their NGA prospect).

Would have to involve a 3rd club.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Hope everyone now might realise how hard it is to make deals for top 10 picks, with clubs that want to screw you.
most clubs aren’t interested in assisting others to get better and more importantly play nice.
Getting points by going back is easier to deal than forward!!!!
We will get screwed and even more so when the rules are changed for FS picks.

 

[Jimmae]

I can't see how they'd do it. While it might be based around their F1, we'd still want points back in this draft to cover bids. And they'd want to keep at least one of their later picks to cover a bid on McCarthy (their NGA prospect).

Would have to involve a 3rd club.

If they think a bid for McCarthy comes outside the top 30, they might be happy to just absorb into next year's 2nd rounder. After 36, he only costs them a list spot.

We're in the same boat with Ison, as are a heap of clubs with academy kids in that 20-40 range, the only difference being is we don't currently have a 2nd round pick in 2026 to pay for the deficit. We'd have to acquire one before the end of the 2026 pick trade window.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

When clubs will launch bids — and young guns who could slip through — as wide ranges explained: Mega AFL draft mail

Tigers’ call on trio as trade gamble, bids and wide ranges explained: Mega AFL draft mail

www.foxsports.com.au

"There has been speculation West Coast will bid on Dean – the son of dual premiership Blue Peter Dean – as the club has interest in him. If that doesn’t happen, the Tigers will almost certainly attempt to select Dean, who’s widely regarded as the best key defender in this year’s draft."

Looks like we end up with Dean, Ison and maybe a late 30's gem.
Austin's been okay with finding quality at the later picks.

 

[DZ4]

The problem is our pick 9 isn't pick 9 in actuality. It's probably pick 13.

And given the uncertainty around who is going where (and when bids come) I think it would be very surprising for a club to want to get into the swimming pool and take our pick for an F1 before the draft starts (well they can't anyway, but you know what I mean).

However, on the night, as the cards (and players) start falling then it's a different thing. If there's a kid available at our pick that another club likes, then the phone will ring. But it's too hard to foresee what that might look like at the moment.

The problem is no one will know who will be available at our pick/s at the time in which we trade them (before or at the bid). Makes them a tougher sell.

Gotta hope Dean gets past the Bombers and to the Dees so clubs have a decent indication of who will be there, however nothing is certain.

 

[VinegarStrokes]

If Carlton aren't being offered a F1 for pick 9 is there any reason you wouldn't do WC deal - 9 for 13,34? It gets you more points and Dean will definately be bid on before 9. Unsure why this trade is apparently cooling, seems to make sense for both teams (if Carlton can't do better for Pick 9 of course which seems the case).

 

[Stamos]

If Carlton aren't being offered a F1 for pick 9 is there any reason you wouldn't do WC deal - 9 for 13,34? It gets you more points and Dean will definately be bid on before 9. Unsure why this trade is apparently cooling, seems to make sense for both teams (if Carlton can't do better for Pick 9 of course which seems the case).

It would depend on when the bid comes, and what we can do with our second pick (currently 11).
If there are no F1 offers for either pick, we could well be better off just keeping them, and having 9 take the bulk of he points hit to match the bid. Our second pick would likely slide, but it will still be higher than if we did your proposed trade.

To take 13 + 34 (which may well be our best option) we’d essentially be giving up on the option of taking another player before Ison.

 

[RPCB]

Are we the only club with draft picks this year? The amount of media coverage there has been since the trade period about Pick 9 and 11 has been astonishing.

 

[pressurepoint]

Austin's been okay with finding quality at the later picks.

Name one?

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Name one?

O’Farrell.