Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[dangertroy]

Eagles said to be possibly selecting at 1 or 2 is a ransom imho

Each to their own opinion and all, but it's one hell of a risk for West Coast to bid on him and 1 or 2 if they don't think he's worth it. If they bid on him there, that's where he's rated. He's a Top 2 pick, and we've got the points to match him.

 

[DZ4]

Well the only thing that really matters is that a select group of recruiting teams have Dean rated in the top 3 and they'll coincidentally be selecting before us this year. There was an article published just today that stated the Eagles see Dean as a potential number 1 talent equal to that of Duursma. Duursma himself said he'd take Dean at number 1 too.

I have Dean at 6, I watched pretty close to all of his matches this year, as I did Cody and Ison (when he wasn't playing for Scotch College). While I don't think he's a top 3 talent, I certainly don't think its farfetched that a team would have him rated a bit higher than I do.

The drama around Dean has come from posters in here who have serially underrated him all year. They've somehow convinced some of the more casual followers of the draft that he's not worth matching a bid on early.

You won't see Brisbane or GCS fans questioning whether it's worth the resources to match a bid on Annable or Uwland because they've been rated as top prospects from a long way out, their fans have expected to pay up for 12 months already.

In my opinion the Eagles don’t seriously rate him in the top 3. They are more interested in wiping our draft hand or dealing for 9, knowing that we don’t have much choice. Richmond the same.
It’s all games and I’d expect Carlton to do the same roles reversed.

Paying up is a bit easier for GC and Brisbane fans to swallow, as they’ve rorted the system for so long already, Uwland in particular is a legitimate top 2-3 talent, and they haven’t had the loss of 3 gun best 22 players make up a fair chunk of the assets they will be required to use. Both clubs will play finals next year and don’t have holes in their lists like we do.

It seems we are stuck between a rock and a hard place and I understand it hasn’t been an easy trade period to navigate, but we still need to maximise our assets and what we’ve ended up with.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Great...hope Dean & Ison deliver

How is this any different to hoping Sharp and Dovaston deliver?

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Was just saying no to a ransom, no need to be a d#$k

And what if the 'ransom' actually worked in our favour?

 

[HalloweenJack]

This post is for anyone who watches the draft prospects. So, I am wondering why the West Perth player Sam Swadling is either not considered good enough or is at best a mid 50's pick. I've watched his highlights and he can find the ball both inside and outside, he is a good kick and handballer. He's not lightning quick and he stepped up from Colts to Seniors seamlessly. I nearly forgot he was All-Australian.

Any thoughts?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

In my opinion the Eagles don’t seriously rate him in the top 3. They are more interested in wiping our draft hand or dealing for 9, knowing that we don’t have much choice. Richmond the same.
It’s all games and I’d expect Carlton to do the same roles reversed.

Paying up is a bit easier for GC and Brisbane fans to swallow, as they’ve rorted the system for so long already, Uwland in particular is a legitimate top 2-3 talent, and they haven’t had the loss of 3 gun best 22 players make up a fair chunk of the assets they will be required to use. Both clubs will play finals next year and don’t have holes in their lists like we do.

It seems we are stuck between a rock and a hard place and I understand it hasn’t been an easy trade period to navigate, but we still need to maximise our assets and what we’ve ended up with.

Given arguably our two biggest holes on the list are a 2nd KPD option and a damaging mid forward wouldn't you say we're maximising our assets by matching bids on both Dean and Ison after shuffling some picks around to get some more points and an extra 2nd for 2026.

There's every chance if they weren't tied to the club we'd be looking at selecting both players regardless.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This post is for anyone who watches the draft prospects. So, I am wondering why the West Perth player Sam Swadling is either not considered good enough or is at best a mid 50's pick. I've watched his highlights and he can find the ball both inside and outside, he is a good kick and handballer. He's not lightning quick and he stepped up from Colts to Seniors seamlessly. I nearly forgot he was All-Australian.

Any thoughts?

Underrated player. Very comparable to a Sam Flanders or Matt Crouch type though who are going out of fashion at a rate of knots. Neat kick and a very good handballer but tends to just rack up a bucket load of touches without being ultra damaging.

Wouldn't suit us imo but someone will pick him up and get a good kid. Works his ass off in games.

 

[Tjblues]

Given arguably our two biggest holes on the list are a 2nd KPD option and a damaging mid forward wouldn't you say we're maximising our assets by matching bids on both Dean and Ison after shuffling some picks around to get some more points and an extra 2nd for 2026.

There's every chance if they weren't tied to the club we'd be looking at selecting both players regardless.

Yep agree completely with this.

In another world where it’s an open draft and their names are Harry and Jack smith, we’d be talking about trading 9 and 11 for 5 and a pick in the 20s to take both these guys anyway.

 

[dangertroy]

In my opinion the Eagles don’t seriously rate him in the top 3. They are more interested in wiping our draft hand or dealing for 9, knowing that we don’t have much choice. Richmond the same.
It’s all games and I’d expect Carlton to do the same roles reversed.

Paying up is a bit easier for GC and Brisbane fans to swallow, as they’ve rorted the system for so long already, Uwland in particular is a legitimate top 2-3 talent, and they haven’t had the loss of 3 gun best 22 players make up a fair chunk of the assets they will be required to use. Both clubs will play finals next year and don’t have holes in their lists like we do.

It seems we are stuck between a rock and a hard place and I understand it hasn’t been an easy trade period to navigate, but we still need to maximise our assets and what we’ve ended up with.

The Eagles won't play games like that. They are under more pressure than us. If they stuff this draft up playing games with picks, then they aren't going to improve. The only thing I can see is them trying to bluff us into trading pick 9 for 13, but it's really a pretty hollow threat - we don't need to do that deal to get Dean.

I do agree that it's a bit different for Brisbane and Gold Coast. The academy system has done a lot for footy in Queensland and they should get to reap the rewards of the work their clubs have done to develop talent in Queensland. Gold Coast have been living in this draft economy for years - picks are different for them as they are mainly currency for bids. Brisbane has lucked out with a couple of top 5 father-sons, which is the same situation we find ourselves in. Yes, they get the academy benefits too, but this year they will be paying some of the bid cost with points they got from trading out stars (Starcevich and Ah Chee, although they gave him away for nothing).

This has been a difficult trade period for us - the list reset we need to have. It started last year with Jagga, but by next year we could potentially have three young top 3 picks on the list without having finished in the bottom six during that time. I'm bullish on the list and think that this is a bit of short-term pain for long-term gain.

 

[Stamos]

In my opinion the Eagles don’t seriously rate him in the top 3. They are more interested in wiping our draft hand or dealing for 9, knowing that we don’t have much choice. Richmond the same.
It’s all games and I’d expect Carlton to do the same roles reversed.

Well, it actually hurts West Coast if their high bid makes us trade out both picks.
And it has zero effect on Richmond.

Much more likely, if they’re considering bidding on Dean, is that they rate him up the top.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Well, it actually hurts West Coast if their high bid makes us trade out both picks.
And it has zero effect on Richmond.

Much more likely, if they’re considering bidding on Dean, is that they rate him up the top.

Which has also been rumoured since before we traded Charlie and had assets of interest to them in the first place.

 

[TheReal99prelim]

Because pick 2 or whatever is too high

pick numbers are sooooooo irrelevant
Dow, SPS, O'Brien
The product you get is what's relevant
Dean is worth a kings ransom...IDGAFF what we pay for him...it will be forgotten within minutes after watching him get what he has always wanted...his own CFC AFL jumper

 

[Blue__Balls]

It’s an interesting question. Where do we actually draw the line?

Pick 1 for Dean? Pick 2? What happens if a club throws out a bid at 15 for Ison? Do we get bent over again?

9+11 is a great draft hand that would land us two really decent talents. I would prefer to take Dean even if at slight overs, Ison I’m neither here nor there on, but some of the rumours of high bids are getting ridiculous. We wouldn’t be the first club to say no to another taking the piss. I don’t care what anyone says, Dean isn’t a top 3 or even 5 kid in this crop, Ison might just sneak into the top 30, seems like we’re getting taken for a ride.

Would be awesome if those picks could land us a decent KPD with smarts, speed and a combative mindset, and maybe a decent athletic forward half utility with better-than-average disposal. Oh wait...

In this draft, Dean is evidently a top 6 talent, especially given he's become the standout KPD. If a club has any kind of desire for a defensive tall then he's as valid a pick inside the top few selections as anyone else. I was of the view he'd slide to the late first or even early second round early in the year, but he's gone from strength to strength and absolutely earned his top billing assessment. Sucks, we'd have drafted him regardless, and getting him for a song would have been a big boon. On the flipside, he's probably borderline ready to play and play well from day one now, which is probably better than even the club could have hoped for 6 months ago.

Ison's another who did himself plenty of favours with an upward-trending formline as the year went on. It's a weird draft, so I could easily see some clubs liking him in the early 20s, and others having little to no interest at all. Where he gets a bid is going to be down to whether those clubs who like him have live picks in a range that corresponds with their opinion of him.

 

[DangerousD]

How are they late 20s, early 30s?

As the draft stands, if Uwland gets a bid before Dean, 25 is moving up to 23. If Annable gets a bid before Dean too, it moves up to 22.

Uwland bid before Dean - 25 becomes 23.
Uwland and Annable bid before Dean - 25 becomes 22.
Uwland and Patterson bid before Dean - 25 becomes 24.
Uwland, Patterson and Annable bid before Dean - 25 becomes 24.

The risk is that Brissy and GC trade back for a crapload of late picks before any bids, which they may, but suitors may be thin. Worst case, the move all their picks past 25 and 25 might slip to 28.

Next year's second from North....early 20s is likely.

The 2nd round of the 2024 draft started at pick 28

The 2nd round of the 2023 draft started at pick 30

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Also something that's been overlooked a touch, in the most recent article about Ison on the AFL website it says he's shot up to 192cm now.

Could not ask for a better size and shape for a modern mid/fwd.

 

[JJBagger]

The drama around Dean has come from posters in here who have serially underrated him all year. They've somehow convinced some of the more casual followers of the draft that he's not worth matching a bid on early.

It’s because of the stupid conspiracy theorists in the Carlton fanbase. Any highly rated player in the draft that’s tied to Carlton isn’t actually that good, it’s just that Carlton fans - and the club - have overrated them to such an extent that they’ve convinced the entire AFL community that they are 10x better than what they are. It’s shits me to no end having to listen to so many Carlton fans downplay every player tied to the club

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It’s because of the stupid conspiracy theorists in the Carlton fanbase. Any highly rated player in the draft that’s tied to Carlton isn’t actually that good, it’s just that Carlton fans - and the club - have overrated them to such an extent that they’ve convinced the entire AFL community that they are 10x better than what they are. It’s shits me to no end having to listen to so many Carlton fans downplay every player tied to the club

It really is painful, but you're spot on.

 

[JJBagger]

It really is painful, but you're spot on.

Anyone who believes that Dean and Ison wouldn’t be great pick ups for us in an open draft is being wilfully ignorant. Both have profiles we are screaming out for. It’s because they are tied to Carlton that they get put down by the fanbase

 

[agro]

I don’t think anyone is saying that Dean and Ison are not going to be great pick ups - I think the point is most want us to able engineer another pick in the top 10 to 15 as well as Dean and ISON.

 

[carlton_99]

I don’t think anyone is saying that Dean and Ison are not going to be great pick ups - I think the point is most want us to able engineer another pick in the top 10 to 15 as well as Dean and ISON.

I struggle to see how that is even possible if Dean gets bid in the top 5 as expected unless we trade a future pick which would be a bad move given the uncertainty still about draft changes for next year. Yes, that's right we still don't know about the rule changes for next year!

 

[JJBagger]

I don’t think anyone is saying that Dean and Ison are not going to be great pick ups - I think the point is most want us to able engineer another pick in the top 10 to 15 as well as Dean and ISON.

Not happening if Dean gets bid on early. Unless a future first rounder is on the table - which would be a stupid move

 

[DZ4]

Given arguably our two biggest holes on the list are a 2nd KPD option and a damaging mid forward wouldn't you say we're maximising our assets by matching bids on both Dean and Ison after shuffling some picks around to get some more points and an extra 2nd for 2026.

There's every chance if they weren't tied to the club we'd be looking at selecting both players regardless.

I guess we have different definitions of maximising our assets. Dean and Ison should be great gets but if you value Dean as a prospect around that 6-10 mark (which is where most have him), and Ison around 25-30 then it is hardly inspiring, even when factoring in the proposed extra 2nd rounder from North.

In the same way Jagga was an unreal get last year, top line talent, fills a need, but I’m still questioning whether it was the best use of 2 x first rounds picks + 1 x second + Owies? Murphy Reid was taken with the pick we traded, and we have left ourselves somewhat hamstrung by trading our F1 this offseason even with the losses of TDK, Silvagni and Charlie.

Good decisions can be good decisions without being the best decisions.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Well, it actually hurts West Coast if their high bid makes us trade out both picks.
And it has zero effect on Richmond.

Much more likely, if they’re considering bidding on Dean, is that they rate him up the top.

Which is why I'd be fine if we jumped into bed with WCE and Richmond with the assurances of not bidding. It actually works in our favour according to the Pommy Draftanator.

pick 9 >> WCE >> picks 13, 34
pick 11 >> Richmond >> pick 38, f2
pick 13 >> NM >> pick 25, f2

A Dean bid coming in at around pick 8 from Essendon gets us Dean, Ison (with a bid in the mid 20's), and a pick in the mid 40's. And we get North and the Tigg's 2026 2nd rounders as a bonus.

It's just a hypothetical, but definitely works in our favour.

Interesting though that we're rumoured to be sniffing around prospects in the latter part of the draft, which suggests we're confident that we can get both players plus a late pick.

 

[Bluebag13]

I don’t think anyone is saying that Dean and Ison are not going to be great pick ups - I think the point is most want us to able engineer another pick in the top 10 to 15 as well as Dean and ISON.

And I think this is where a lot of the angst comes from. We have seen other teams before us get their gun f/s or NGA, for nothing plus be able to get another star in the draft or trade their 1st for an experience player yet we are having to pay up and had to release a couple of players to do it.

I get the angst but in the end we have/will been able to secure potentially 4 1st round talent players over 3 years of which 3 might be in the top 3/4 picks.

It really is a huge boost that only rebuilding gutted lists get the chance to do but we haven’t finished lower than 11th.

At the same time we have been able to bring in 5 ready made season afl players in one trade period.

Considering the rule changes I think the club has managed this very well

 

[Blue and Silver]

Ben Silvagni? Camporealle perhaps.

The father-son name convergence is a real problem for me