Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Opium]

Exactly, but people around here will still complain.

It's called a discussion. We don't all need to agree. No need to take pot shots at posters for not agreeing to your views.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's called a discussion. We don't all need to agree. No need to take pot shots at posters for not agreeing to your views.

The discussion:

Twomey - WCE rate Dean as a top 3 talent and may cast a bid on him at pick 3...

Carlton fans who watched three 5 minute videos on YouTube last week - "DEAN ISN'T WORTH IT WE ARE BEING HELD TO RANSOM AND NEED TO PASS ON HIM TO TAKE SHARP AND DOVASTON!!!!!! CLUB NEEDS TO BE MORE RUTHLESS!!!!"

 

[marcmurphy3]

What more could we do?

If they weren't F/S or Academy and we got them with normal picks I am sure most would be happy. Still two very good players in a poor draft nd we will still bring in two more players that will likely be more mature and ready to play if needed

We now have a very young list

We could have done more if the bids were later, but that they arent so we cant.

 

[Soapy V]

I understand people wanting more. I would have loved two more top 3 picks and landed CDT and another quick gun mid but reality is system doesn't work that way and we will still walk away with the best KPD in the draft and a very talented and skilful mid (that to me looks and moves like a young Pendles) after a great trade period and an awesome draft hand next year when we already have the likely No.1 pick

Honestly, in reality I couldn't be happier (at this stage)

 

[Bfevola]

Soapy I would love a late KPP to develop.

McKay is getting older now and has had concussion issues. And if he goes down we will play a forward line of mid sized and small forwards.

Brings me back to the days after Fev and before McKay and Curnow. Not pleasant.

 

[Soapy V]

Soapy I would love a late KPP to develop.

McKay is getting older now and has had concussion issues. And if he goes down we will play a forward line of mid sized and small forwards.

Brings me back to the days after Fev and before McKay and Curnow. Not pleasant.

So would I but question is who and how?

I still believe we will pick Phillips (or similar) while HOF & Dean develop. We have Weitering & Young and Haynes who can play tall.

Even then I think we are still one KPP short but they don't grow on trees

 

[Poorman53]

The discussion:

Twomey - WCE rate Dean as a top 3 talent and may cast a bid on him at pick 3...

Carlton fans who watched three 5 minute videos on YouTube last week - "DEAN ISN'T WORTH IT WE ARE BEING HELD TO RANSOM AND NEED TO PASS ON HIM TO TAKE SHARP AND DOVASTON!!!!!! CLUB NEEDS TO BE MORE RUTHLESS!!!!"

Again... where in this forum are people being irrationale re Dean and suggesting what you're saying???

We just have to do what is best for Carlton, we don't know where Dean is on our board. If he's 1 then we're getting a bargain no matter what. If we place him at 5, but the next tier of players we see as a sharp drop off, then a bid on at 2 or 3 is still a great result.

Club can't let emotion impact their decisions on draft night. And seeing Austin's work I doubt it will.

 

[Siegfried]

The calculator has been given a workout. Here's what I can work out if WC bids on Dean at 3 (seems to be the consensus worst case scenario for us), and we do the picks swaps with Ess and North. (Others may have already posted something like this, if so, apologies.)

The second round currently has 20 picks, but will likely only end up being around 10 picks, as many of the picks in the 20s will be swallowed by bid matching.

The mooted Ess trade is 9 for 21, 27 and 30 (some media have said 21 and 27, but let's keep 30 in there). A WC bid on Uwland will push 9 to 10, meaning an upgrade from 1276 points to 1708 points.

But if we factor in picks being swallowed in the 20s, those 3 picks might end up being something like 21, 24 and 25, which is 1932. Big upgrade (656 points).

A bid on Dean at 3 = 1960 (after 10% discount). If we’ve traded out 11 as well (for 25 and future 2nd), wth 25 likely to become 23 (653 points), matching Dean would cost us picks 21, 23 and 24. We’d be left with pick 25 to match Ison, equivalent of a bid at pick 23.

We’ve also got 43 and 54, which will come in to, say 35 and 45, which is another 488 points, which would give us enough for an Ison bid in the mid-teens.

An earlier than 23 bid on Ison (pick 20-22 say) would swallow up pick 35. Interesting to see if the club wants to use that pick.

Summary with those pick swaps - with a bid on Dean at 3, picks 9 and 11 get us Dean, Ison, maybe a pick in the mid-30s and a 2nd rounder next year.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Again... where in this forum are people being irrationale re Dean and suggesting what you're saying???

We just have to do what is best for Carlton, we don't know where Dean is on our board. If he's 1 then we're getting a bargain no matter what. If we place him at 5, but the next tier of players we see as a sharp drop off, then a bid on at 2 or 3 is still a great result.

Club can't let emotion impact their decisions on draft night. And seeing Austin's work I doubt it will.

Dean is coming no matter where he is on our board

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Again... where in this forum are people being irrationale re Dean and suggesting what you're saying???

We just have to do what is best for Carlton, we don't know where Dean is on our board. If he's 1 then we're getting a bargain no matter what. If we place him at 5, but the next tier of players we see as a sharp drop off, then a bid on at 2 or 3 is still a great result.

Club can't let emotion impact their decisions on draft night. And seeing Austin's work I doubt it will.

The club has agreed to a deal that will allow us to match a bid on Dean anywhere other than pick 1. That says everything we as supporters need to know about where the club rates him.

Cries of overpaying and being bent over by other clubs are bias masquerading as objectivity.

 

[Poorman53]

Dean is coming no matter where he is on our board

What a ridiculous statement

I do believe he's coming, and it's because where we'd have him on our board.

 

[marcmurphy3]

The calculator has been given a workout. Here's what I can work out if WC bids on Dean at 3 (seems to be the consensus worst case scenario for us), and we do the picks swaps with Ess and North. (Others may have already posted something like this, if so, apologies.)

The second round currently has 20 picks, but will likely only end up being around 10 picks, as many of the picks in the 20s will be swallowed by bid matching.

The mooted Ess trade is 9 for 21, 27 and 30 (some media have said 21 and 27, but let's keep 30 in there). A WC bid on Uwland will push 9 to 10, meaning an upgrade from 1276 points to 1708 points.

But if we factor in picks being swallowed in the 20s, those 3 picks might end up being something like 21, 24 and 25, which is 1932. Big upgrade (656 points).

A bid on Dean at 3 = 1960 (after 10% discount). If we’ve traded out 11 as well (for 25 and future 2nd), wth 25 likely to become 23 (653 points), matching Dean would cost us picks 21, 23 and 24. We’d be left with pick 25 to match Ison, equivalent of a bid at pick 23.

We’ve also got 43 and 54, which will come in to, say 35 and 45, which is another 488 points, which would give us enough for an Ison bid in the mid-teens.

An earlier than 23 bid on Ison (pick 20-22 say) would swallow up pick 35. Interesting to see if the club wants to use that pick.

Summary with those pick swaps - with a bid on Dean at 3, picks 9 and 11 get us Dean, Ison, maybe a pick in the mid-30s and a 2nd rounder next year.

I think it depends on who's available at the pick, although I'm almost certain that at least one of 43 or 54, will be going back Essendon's way. Doubt we keep both those picks. Apparently, the Roos might chuck in 46 with their deal though.

 

[Poorman53]

The club has agreed to a deal that will allow us to match a bid on Dean anywhere other than pick 1. That says everything we as supporters need to know about where the club rates him.

Think your most likely correct.

A lot of mind games around the draft though. Carlton generally don't let things come out unless they want them to the past 18 months.

WC ideally would have wanted 9 and 10 to be absorbed...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Think your most likely correct.

A lot of mind games around the draft though. Carlton generally don't let things come out unless they want them to the past 18 months.

WC ideally would have wanted 9 and 10 to be absorbed...

Mind games or not, Dean will be at Carlton in 2026 so the discussion around him really doesn't make any sense. The club has already said they'll match a bid regardless of where it comes.

 

[Soapy V]

Dean is coming no matter where he is on our board

Yep. We have committed to him. It's happening, and we are preparing for any scenario. End of story

 

[Ninja Worrier]

What a ridiculous statement

I do believe he's coming, and it's because where we'd have him on our board.

No it's not a ridiculous statement

 

[Opium]

The discussion:

Twomey - WCE rate Dean as a top 3 talent and may cast a bid on him at pick 3...

Carlton fans who watched three 5 minute videos on YouTube last week - "DEAN ISN'T WORTH IT WE ARE BEING HELD TO RANSOM AND NEED TO PASS ON HIM TO TAKE SHARP AND DOVASTON!!!!!! CLUB NEEDS TO BE MORE RUTHLESS!!!!"

Thanks for confirming my point

 

[El Topo]

This is the last year we'll be able to match F/S bids by amassing points. We've not had the chance to take advantage of this ala Brisbane and Collingwood, so it's great to see the club being proactive.

Can see the AFL quietly walking back the proposed 2026 changes after pushback from the clubs and the new DVI working as intended this year

 

[Poorman53]

No it's not a ridiculous statement

Oh yes because you said earlier Carlton don't want to annoy/put off Arli Walker??

Amateur hour if that's the clubs reasoning

 

[Stamos]

Can see the AFL quietly walking back the proposed 2026 changes after pushback from the clubs and the new DVI working as intended this year

You would hope so.
The mere suggestion that they would change it reeks of incompetence.

 

[Opium]

Given arguably our two biggest holes on the list are a 2nd KPD option and a damaging mid forward wouldn't you say we're maximising our assets by matching bids on both Dean and Ison after shuffling some picks around to get some more points and an extra 2nd for 2026.

There's every chance if they weren't tied to the club we'd be looking at selecting both players regardless.

I find it interesting the same people who claim we don't need another key forward are saying we desperately need another key defender even though we have Weitering, HOF and Young. Yet we only need Mckay as a genuine key forward as the game is evolving?

 

[DZ4]

If you have multiple clubs right at the top of the draft intimating they will bid then he’s obviously rated very highly in this draft class.
Just because you want to get an absolute bargain shouldn’t detract from the fact he’s a key piece that we have complete access to and very highly rated.
Let’s just celebrate that instead of being a Debbie downer.

I’m very excited to get Dean at wherever he falls. He’s going to be a gun.

My gripe is how we’ve gone (or will go) about getting him in. I think in the past other clubs have been more shrewd with their pick trading to avoid these tough calls. We’ve brought in five additional first round picks by losing three best 22 players and we’re still caught in a tough spot where it looks like we’ll pay (imo) overs for these players.

Walker could fall off the face of the Earth next year. The trade rumours suggest we are really concerned about matching him. I’d sooner go into a deficit in 2027 (if he does remain a top 3 prospect) if it meant maximising our draft hand this year.

Let me reiterate, I’m very happy to have Dean and Ison. I’m not happy with clubs pushing us around because they can. It’s all good saying yeah we trust Austin and Wright and the process, 17 other clubs also have a plan in place as well and they aren’t looking to benefit us.

 

[Jimmae]

Harry Dean is not rated a top 3 in anyone's books. For him to be taken in this range would be purely tactical.

I'm sensing some whispers are getting out to the likes of Twomey etc that WCE are still undecided on Dean so that pick 9 can be shaken loose. And weirdly there is probably some chatter around Ison being taken in the top 20.

Walking away with Dean & Ison is fantastic but only a few weeks ago we were also talking Lindsay or Dovaston. Particularly after grabbing pick 9 in the Curnow Trade.

I would hope Austin doesn't get spooked by the whispers. If a realistic bid comes around 7 or 8 then we have no need to trade down for later picks and instead grab Dovaston potentially with a slightly downgraded pick in the teens.

Keep in mind a pick 7 bid would likely still be coming from Richmond.

If Dean is bid on at 2 or 3, we can bypass and will most likely get two of Gril, Doverston and Lindsey. Then Ison later on.

The whole point of passing would be to then trade up, and you would have Richmond's full attention as their entire draft board will have shifted down a slot, notably Grlj.

Fox Footy Phantom draft Monday morning …

Updated Phantom Draft: Big top-15 calls, bid NOT matched as first 30 AFL picks predicted

Updated Phantom Draft: Big top-15 calls, bid NOT matched as first 30 AFL picks predicted

www.foxsports.com.au

As to Eagles, they are said to genuinely want Harry Dean at Pick 3 (of the Phantom):

“In the mix/trade watch: This is why Carlton has moved out of Picks 9 and 11, for the Dean bid is set to come a lot earlier than the Blues had hoped. Yet the Eagles genuinely want Dean as he is no doubt the type of player that would fill a list need, so they’ll ask the Blues to pay up. While it’s meant the Blues have had to move quickly in recent days to find more draft points from other clubs, sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au believe the Eagles’ move is justified, with Dean ranked at the pointy end of many club draft boards. This all means Cooper Duff-Tytler will now likely wait another pick before being officially drafted.“

Ison at Pick 22 in predicted first round of 29.

Another mediocre phantom. Honestly I think Sydney would let Kyle go into the open draft if a bid came in before 30. Carmichael is a different story.

Also think Gold Coast will try for more trades but come up short, and I'd be surprised if anyone rates Murray higher than Addinsall, including Gold Coast.

You've also now got journalists declaring they still have no idea and are often throwing darts, including the Dean bid.

I doubt any recruiting manager is wasting a top 3 selection to be "tactical". If Dean is selected in that range, it's because a club rates him there.
The advantages of upper echelon picks are too highly guarded to risk being diminished for a risky strategy. If you bid on a player, you better be willing to accept him at that selection.

No one is making that argument, they're suggesting it's a tactic to elicit a favourable trade negotiation.

It would seem that offer was rebuffed. Bluff made, bluff called.

If they want to be absurd, we still have a better deal elsewhere to mitigate the damage if we want to match, and it helps West Coast nought and creates a whole new narrative that will be front and centre when the Judd family have a few decisions to make.

but someone dropped the name Oudshoorn-Bennier earlier in the year

That was me, and it seems Hibbens-Hargreaves is also in the same range on some boards.

Others to look out for are Rodriguez, and a Richmond VFL player in Harry Scott.

Exactly, but people around here will still complain.

This first round will be at least 25 picks, but could be over 30, so that statement in of itself means nothing.

The discussion:

Twomey - WCE rate Dean as a top 3 talent and may cast a bid on him at pick 3...

Carlton fans who watched three 5 minute videos on YouTube last week - "DEAN ISN'T WORTH IT WE ARE BEING HELD TO RANSOM AND NEED TO PASS ON HIM TO TAKE SHARP AND DOVASTON!!!!!! CLUB NEEDS TO BE MORE RUTHLESS!!!!"

You're very adamant, but haven't really posted much of substance for months. Parochial would be an apt description.

You're also being slapped around on other boards for various absurd takes.

Perhaps take a small break and reflect on your behaviour, because it's very much strawmanning a much more complex argument.

We could have done more if the bids were later, but that they arent so we cant.

All we know is that we have a potential plan for a West Coast bid. I'm glad we have a plan.

We’ve also got 43 and 54, which will come in to, say 35 and 45, which is another 488 points, which would give us enough for an Ison bid in the mid-teens.

The chatter coming through is that 43 or 54 will go to Essendon, and we'll be swapping late picks with North, which I assume means we're left with just 46 instead.

An early bid for Ison like you're suggesting would see us trade down again for points.

 

[Stamos]

I’m not happy with clubs pushing us around because they can. It’s all good saying yeah we trust Austin and Wright and the process, 17 other clubs also have a plan in place as well and they aren’t looking to benefit us.

It's not clubs "pushing us around".
It's clubs wanting the players that we are going to get.

 

[bradfisher14]

This first round will be at least 25 picks, but could be over 30, so that statement in of itself means nothing.

Thank you for proving my point.