Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jimmae]

Thank you for proving my point.

How is me pointing out that it's a first round pick on a technicality proving your point?

The argument was that Ison is a good get at 21. He's not.

 

[Soapy V]

I find it interesting the same people who claim we don't need another key forward are saying we desperately need another key defender even though we have Weitering, HOF and Young. Yet we only need Mckay as a genuine key forward as the game is evolving?

No one said we don't need another one.

The comments have been about who and how. And yes the game is evolving and it isn't a neccesity to have two big forwards.

I personally think we need another KPD and a KPF on our list but the question for me is how this year and who is available? Likey scenario is we get a Phillips this year (as Young can go forward if needed) and look for a Forward end of next season

Also, HOF is out for the year and many believe he may go forward

 

[Uncle Fester]

You would hope so.
The mere suggestion that they would change it reeks of incompetence.

its crazy it hasnt been announced

 

[Blue__Balls]

Again... where in this forum are people being irrationale re Dean and suggesting what you're saying???

We just have to do what is best for Carlton, we don't know where Dean is on our board. If he's 1 then we're getting a bargain no matter what. If we place him at 5, but the next tier of players we see as a sharp drop off, then a bid on at 2 or 3 is still a great result.

Club can't let emotion impact their decisions on draft night. And seeing Austin's work I doubt it will.

Post # 2872 for a start. Now in fairness, it was a thought bubble not a demand.

But there is evidently a school of thought that we should pass on Dean if the bid comes early, and use Pick 9 and 11 (probably 12 and 14 after other bids) on other players.

I'd suggest that school of thought comes from a position of believing that Dean isn't worth (for example) Pick 3, and that matching a bid at that point suggests that Carlton got played by other clubs. You'll probably find a bit of a correlation between those posts and others from the same posters which also focus on Carlton being manipulated, or being meek or weak or soft in negotiations. That's fine, they hold those views on the club - but there are times it's going to colour their views on tangentially related matters (such as whether or not matching a top 3 bid for Dean is evidence of the same perceived issues).

The thing is...we're not paying Pick 3 for him. We'd be giving up Picks 9 and 11 (or more accurately, 12 and 14). And getting back a pick in the late 20s, which in turn gets us Ison or (if we're lucky) an extra player before Ison.

Based on the recent phantom from Twomey, 12 and 14 aren't getting you Sharp, or Grlj. It gets a lesser KPP like Schubert, or a halfback/mid like Farrow (who I like) or Lindsay, plus probably Dovaston who, let's be honest, is himself not guaranteed to be the next Charlie Cameron or Eddie Betts. He's as big a risk as Ison, and both address existing list needs.

 

[bradfisher14]

its crazy it hasnt been announced

On this topic, I think no news is good news.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Oh yes because you said earlier Carlton don't want to annoy/put off Arli Walker??

Amateur hour if that's the clubs reasoning

Way to take 2+2 and make 5

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Amusing isn't it.

Hypothetical :

Dean and Ison have no link to Carlton, they're just open draft pool options

The club trades Picks 9 and 11 to Essendon for Picks 5 and 21.

At Pick 6 (after a matched bid on Uwland), with fancied athletic mids in Duursma and Robey already gone, as well as the highly rated ruck/forward Duffman, Carlton select Harry Bean, a combative young KPD with smarts, speed and solid disposal who impressed recruiters with an excellent and consistent season.

At Pick 21 (or thing between 20 and 24 anyway, depending on bid matching), with a variety of player types still on offer, Carlton select Jack Oson, an athletic utility with a quality left foot, and the height to force some really difficult matchups inside 50 or on the wing.

Bravo Carlton - turned two middling first rounders into a bankable partner and eventual successor to Weitering, and a versatile half-forward/wing/maybe-even-half-back with better kicking skills than 90% of our current list.

The "angst" is entitlement. People think because we were always getting these two players we should have got more this year. That's not how it works. We got more....over the next few years. Multiple first rounders in the next few drafts, including one where we'll need a strong draft hand to potentially match a top 3 bid on Cody Walker. Heaven forbid he's bid on at Pick 1 or 2 next year, we'll have posters demanding the club let him go to Richmond so we can draft a couple of other players at Pick 8 and 15.

It's not entitlement, it's just that if the scenario had of been slightly different, with a bit more of an even draft outside the Top 5 and where we weren't so pressured for list spots, and with an eye on Cody next year, we could have done a Brisbane or a GC and got not only Dean and Ison but another top 10 pick, and really benefitted.

It just feels rough because its been so easy for everyone else over the past few years and we really only get what we deserve, instead of more.

 

[Coona Blues]

Pommy has us likely taking a third player in the 25-35 range, who is everyone's preference?

We will play our cards very close, so impossible to say.

As it sits we get Dean and Ison and two more players only in this Draft, Rookie, SSP period. A small chance we add HOF to the inactive list for another spot, or we have some “attrition” during pre season.

Rumour has it Elijah will be added if he hits some targets during the off season, so presumably a spot is kept open. It is hard to believe that we will attempt to negotiate a full season without any KPP depth/insurance with the last pick.

Some chance the “late picks” we are talking to are being groomed for VFL spots?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You're very adamant, but haven't really posted much of substance for months. Parochial would be an apt description.

You're also being slapped around on other boards for various absurd takes.

Perhaps take a small break and reflect on your behaviour, because it's very much strawmanning a much more complex argument.

Lmao the irony in this post is off the charts. For months you and your gang of detractors have boldly claimed Dean wouldn't be bid on until the teens and Ison would likely be in the 30s-early 40s.

You also bizarrely diagnose advanced biomechanical patterns in players, despite having no education on the matter and somehow use it to try and justify your opinions even when they're proven categorically false.

Go have a spell Jimm. When you're bringing up me trolling Collingwood nuffies on main board in the Banter thread as evidence of my lack of knowledge... Well that's when you know you're lost.

 

[Blue__Balls]

It's not entitlement, it's just that if the scenario had of been slightly different, with a bit more of an even draft outside the Top 5 and where we weren't so pressured for list spots, and with an eye on Cody next year, we could have done a Brisbane or a GC and got not only Dean and Ison but another top 10 pick, and really benefitted.

It just feels rough because its been so easy for everyone else over the past few years and we really only get what we deserve, instead of more.

The thing is - the sentiment isn't "ah well, bad luck, our players had great years and now we'll have to pay a bit more", it's "the club should have done more" and "they're not worth those picks, forget them and draft someone else".

Circumstances have conspired, as you say, to leave us in a bit of an ordinary spot where we can't get our linked players for a song and have a little extra dabble in the first round this year.

Tell you what though...if we rated the draft and wanted an extra first round selection - well, we have 4 over the two subsequent drafts that can be traded. Seems maybe the club are just of the view that those future picks best serve us exactly where they are.

Our fortunes aren't going to hinge on one mid teens pick this year, that's for sure.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Feeling like we are going to be the first team really dudded by a club bidding on a player well before they are rated by every expert... If Harry Dean is bid on with a pick before Ashcroft & Daicos who were both clear #1 picks we can really count ourselves unlucky. I just don't get why WC would bid early, they may rate him highly but know they are never going to get the player and are just forcing us to pay overs unnecessarily.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Feeling like we are going to be the first team really dudded by a club bidding on a player well before they are rated by every expert... If Harry Dean is bid on with a pick before Ashcroft & Daicos who were both clear #1 picks we can really count ourselves unlucky. I just don't get why WC would bid early, they may rate him highly but know they are never going to get the player and are just forcing us to pay overs unnecessarily.

JUH went at 1 despite being club tied.

Darcy went at 2 despite being club tied (ahead of Daicos).

We aren't the first team to cop an early pick on a player. We're just one of the first to cop an early bid on a player after the rules got changed to ensure clubs pay a fairer price for these prospects.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

JUH went at 1 despite being club tied.

Darcy went at 2 despite being club tied (ahead of Daicos).

We aren't the first team to cop an early pick on a player. We're just one of the first to cop an early bid on a player after the rules got changed to ensure clubs pay a fairer price for these prospects.

Understand, but those players were rated top 3 picks by the 'experts'. Harry has never been seen as a top 5 pick in this draft, with many having him outside the top 10.

 

[ferrisb]

A lot of people seem to think AFL trading is like one of those reddit things where with pick 9 and 11 we should (INSERT CLEVER TRADES HERE) and presto, now we've got Dean, Ison, Pick 3, Pick 15 and Harley Reid.

I think pick 15 is unrealistic...

 

[Stamos]

Understand, but those players were rated top 3 picks by the 'experts'. Harry has never been seen as a top 5 pick in this draft, with many having him outside the top 10.

Really?
Because he was by McGowan in The Age.
And Fox Footy had him as part of the "clear top 6".

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Understand, but those players were rated top 3 picks by the 'experts'. Harry has never been seen as a top 5 pick in this draft, with many having him outside the top 10.

As I've said previously, we've heard for months now that WCE have Dean in the top handful this year. Even before we acquired the picks from the Curnow trade.

Their 'experts' rate him higher than others, that's really all that matters.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I’d be shocked if Harry Dean is not a Carlton player on Wednesday night.

I think you will be shocked at just how non-shocked you are about to be.

 

[Poorman53]

Way to take 2+2 and make 5

It is what you said though…

 

[Stamos]

The argument was that Ison is a good get at 21. He's not.

I love how definitive you are.
What's the strike rate of the best recruiters in the AFL?

Still waiting for you to cite "everyone else" calling the bid for Dean at 9-14?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I love how definitive you are.
What's the strike rate of the best recruiters in the AFL?

Still waiting for you to cite "everyone else" calling the bid for Dean at 9-14?

Ironically, arguably the best recruiter in AFL history (Stephen Wells) is part of the recruiting team considering a bid on Ison at their first pick according to Twomey. Which will end up around pick 21 come draft night.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

It is what you said though…

It was an example, I don't care if it's Arli Walker or Waleed effen aly. It is a bad way to operate to commit to take a player then hang them out to dry. It won't happen. Club clearly rates Dean in the upper echelon of players in this pool

 

[Jimmae]

Lmao the irony in this post is off the charts. For months you and your gang of detractors have boldly claimed Dean wouldn't be bid on until the teens and Ison would likely be in the 30s-early 40s.

You also bizarrely diagnose advanced biomechanical patterns in players, despite having no education on the matter and somehow use it to try and justify your opinions even when they're proven categorically false.

Go have a spell Jimm. When you're bringing up me trolling Collingwood nuffies on main board in the Banter thread as evidence of my lack of knowledge... Well that's when you know you're lost.

All this perpetual motion and generalisation reflects that you have taken very little on board, so I'll just leave it there.

Bye forever!

 

[DangerousD]

Bottom line is I reckon we will swap both 9 & 11 for later picks and some next year, then will take Dean and Ison with points and move on

That will be it with two spots for a rookie and/or SSP's

That's my take

I would be a bit disappointed if this is how it plays out, I think Dean and ISON are worthy of their draft range but we aren’t addressing our lost needs aggressively enough imo.

It won’t take much more to make me happy, if we get a pick in the 20s before ISON or if we end up with a pick in the 40s after him, I’ll think we have done a good job, provided that pick addresses a need, KPF or small forward.

 

[Poorman53]

It was an example, I don't care if it's Arli Walker or Waleed effen aly. It is a bad way to operate to commit to take a player then hang them out to dry. It won't happen. Club clearly rates Dean in the upper echelon of players in this pool

Not sure you're aware of how the nominating process works if that's your opinion.

A couple of the things you have said previously are ridiculous.

 

[Stamos]

It won’t take much more to make me happy, if we get a pick in the 20s before ISON or if we end up with a pick in the 40s after him, I’ll think we have done a good job, provided that pick addresses a need, KPF or small forward.

Be prepared for us to do neither of those and to instead leave a 2nd spot open for the SSP.
Anything could happen, but I think that's the most likely.