The Liberal Party - How long? - Part 2

[Grin]

….because anyone left of the Libs/Nats will always preference ON last.

Why do you say that?

 

[The Punter]

I think that’s what I’m asking… what are they offering?

The offer right now is "our policy on energy will prioritise lower energy prices over emissions", and that's the totality of it right now.

My initial point is that is either no policy or bad policy (or good policy if one wants to make that argument), but it cannot be both at the same time.

 

[schneebly111]

What seats though? The ways to pick up seats would seemingly be the way the Teals do it off the Liberals (relying on a token Labor campaign in those seats and then getting theirs and the Greens preferences - will never happen with One Nation), or the way the Greens do it (mainly) against the ALP and in inner city seats.

I feel like their only realistic prospects are in remaining Coalition strongholds and there they'd need a massive primary vote, because anyone left of the Libs/Nats will always preference ON last.

I think the last seat and poll analysis had One Nation picking up 3 rural QLD seats if an election were held today

 

[Saint]

I think a summary of the party position is that it's still emerging/evolving. They only just dumped Net Zero (which meant very little, but is emblematic) and now they'll figure out what else they have to formally adjust. Paris will be one of them, they'll have to come to the inevitable that if they're prioritising energy prices over emissions, then Paris will have to go too.

Which fulfills the Sky agenda of getting the LNP's policies in-line with US reactionary politics and other reactionary European parties (i.e. UK Reform).

The problem at the next election will be that energy prices will be free for a chunk of the day and coming down during most other periods as all the renewables and storage kicks in. As renewables bring prices down for most voters, the impetus for cost-based energy policies will diminish.

The only reason energy prices are high is because gas prices went up on the East Coast. So the gas companies are investing a small fraction of their profits into Sky and the LNP to continue to draw attention to renewables as the problem and gas as the solution (when it's actually the problem due to the gas export cartels).

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Why do you say that?

Because I think that aligning to a party that openly preoccupied with culture wars over anything else would do irreperable damage to any other party fancying itself as being left of centre

 

[western royboy]

My biggest concern is we’ll see a greatly increased One Nation presence in parliament. Obviously not an actual opposition, but a cohort of nasties motivated solely by spite, who actually consider themselves competent human beings.

At least they are now in plain sight

 

[nut]

The offer right now is "our policy on energy will prioritise lower energy prices over emissions", and that's the totality of it right now.

My initial point is that is either no policy or bad policy (or good policy if one wants to make that argument), but it cannot be both at the same time.

Yer… I’ll introduce a policy too.
I’m going to make Beer half price for all!!!! Labor’s ridiculous high beer prices are outrageous. We are going to prioritise lower beer prices!!!
Beer prices will always be lower under my government!!!

Don’t worry about how I’ll do it. That’s not your concern.

 

[Gough]

Yer… I’ll introduce a policy too.
I’m going to make Beer half price for all!!!! Labor’s ridiculous high beer prices are outrageous. We are going to prioritise lower beer prices!!!
Beer prices will always be lower under my government!!!

Don’t worry about how I’ll do it. That’s not your concern.

Someone's going to invent something, trust me.

 

[nut]

I think a summary of the party position is that it's still emerging/evolving. They only just dumped Net Zero (which meant very little, but is emblematic) and now they'll figure out what else they have to formally adjust. Paris will be one of them, they'll have to come to the inevitable that if they're prioritising energy prices over emissions, then Paris will have to go too.

Which fulfills the Sky agenda of getting the LNP's policies in-line with US reactionary politics and other reactionary European parties (i.e. UK Reform).

The problem at the next election will be that energy prices will be free for a chunk of the day and coming down during most other periods as all the renewables and storage kicks in. As renewables bring prices down for most voters, the impetus for cost-based energy policies will diminish.

The only reason energy prices are high is because gas prices went up on the East Coast. So the gas companies are investing a small fraction of their profits into Sky and the LNP to continue to draw attention to renewables as the problem and gas as the solution (when it's actually the problem due to the gas export cartels).

The battery rebate alone is going to take almost a half million houses off the grid (already 110,000) during the peak power period..
Snowy 2 will take another half a million…
Then we have massive batteries coming online….
Gas dictates the long term power price because it’s expensive and is used when the grid is under stress.



“In Australia's
National Electricity Market (NEM), gas power generators influence electricity prices by setting the wholesale price, particularly when demand is high or other sources are unavailable. They do this by bidding their costs into the market, and the last generator dispatched—often a gas generator—sets the price for all electricity supplied during that interval. Therefore, rising gas prices directly increase the cost for gas generators, leading to higher bids and subsequently higher wholesale electricity prices for consumers.“


The influence of gas is being destroyed by batteries…. It’s beautiful.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

At least they are now in plain sight

True.

And while on the one hand I’m still dismayed by how easily some people fall for their simplistic, rancorous horseschitte, I’m also buoyed by how many people seem to be seeing through it now.

No matter how much their support grows, I feel there is an ever growing majority who aren’t remotely taken in by them.

 

[Gavin Excell]

My biggest concern is we’ll see a greatly increased One Nation presence in parliament. Obviously not an actual opposition, but a cohort of nasties motivated solely by spite, who actually consider themselves competent human beings.

Just a reminder that ON has zero lower house seats

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Just a reminder that ON has zero lower house seats

Long may that prevail!

 

[Festerz]

Just a reminder that ON has zero lower house seats

The massive majority the Albanese Govt has in the House of Reps now and most likely after the next election means that the likely threat to his government and any needed increase in its focus on social, environmental and taxation reform will NOT come via the lower house.

Polls show that the real danger is that One Nation and right wing independents will supplant the Greens and Teals as the controlling force in the Senate cross benches and, added to a shift right of the Coalition Senators, will see them blocking any future needed reforms and forcing right wing agenda items around, say, immigration and welfare support into the negotiating process.

Albanese already faces a hostile Senate and his government has to negotiate with the Greens and Teals to get major legislation though. Imagine those negotiations with a cross bench led by Hanson and Antic!

Many people are salivating over the collapse of the Liberals as a major party. But that collapse has come at the expense of the moderate faction that, for all their faults, helped to moderate Senate negotiations. Those voices have been effectively muted.

As the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

 

[The Punter]

The massive majority the Albanese Govt has in the House of Reps now and most likely after the next election means that the likely threat to his government and any increase in its focus on social, environmental and taxation reform will NOT come via the lower house.

Polls show that the real danger is that One Nation and right wing independents will supplant the Greens and Teals as the controlling force in the Senate cross benches and, added to a shift right of the Coalition Senators, will see them blocking any future needed reforms and forcing right wing agenda items around, say, immigration and welfare support into the negotiating process.

Albanese already faces a hostile Senate and his government has to negotiate with the Greens and Teals to get major legislation though. Imagine those negotiations with a cross bench led by Hanson and Antic!

Many people are salivating over the collapse of the Liberals as a major party. But that collapse has come at the expense of the moderate faction that, for all their faults, helped to moderate Senate negotiations. Those voices have been effectively muted.

As the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

Who are you identifying as a Teal in the Senate? Pocock?

 

[Saint]

The massive majority the Albanese Govt has in the House of Reps now and most likely after the next election means that the likely threat to his government and any needed increase in its focus on social, environmental and taxation reform will NOT come via the lower house.

Polls show that the real danger is that One Nation and right wing independents will supplant the Greens and Teals as the controlling force in the Senate cross benches and, added to a shift right of the Coalition Senators, will see them blocking any future needed reforms and forcing right wing agenda items around, say, immigration and welfare support into the negotiating process.

Albanese already faces a hostile Senate and his government has to negotiate with the Greens and Teals to get major legislation though. Imagine those negotiations with a cross bench led by Hanson and Antic!

Many people are salivating over the collapse of the Liberals as a major party. But that collapse has come at the expense of the moderate faction that, for all their faults, helped to moderate Senate negotiations. Those voices have been effectively muted.

As the saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

This doesn't make much sense. The ALP have to currently deal with the Greens and/or other minor parties in the Senate.

They could always still deal with the Libs rather than ON or the Greens.

It feels like the next 10-20 years could go one of two ways. That the major parties continue to be eaten away by minor parties until there is never again a Governing party in its own right. Or, minor parties like ON and Teal funding falls apart and voters rally back to comfort in the major parties.

I think it's almost certainly going to be the former. And the result will hopefully be a lot less career politicians in it for the spoils of Government and more people committed to public service.

 

[Sphynx]

What seats though? The ways to pick up seats would seemingly be the way the Teals do it off the Liberals (relying on a token Labor campaign in those seats and then getting theirs and the Greens preferences - will never happen with One Nation), or the way the Greens do it (mainly) against the ALP and in inner city seats.

I feel like their only realistic prospects are in remaining Coalition strongholds and there they'd need a massive primary vote, because anyone left of the Libs/Nats will always preference ON last.

You think the ONLY chance a party with 18% support is to have a massive primary vote to win a seat?

I think you will find preferences change when ON emerge as a genuine power/player in the lower house.

Further, it entirely depends if it's a center right or far right LNP leadership.

There's absolutely a possibility of a coalition in the future with a Far Right LNP like an Abbott 2.0 and ON with a modern marketable leader etc.

Family First, The Nats, Trumpet (if they go around again) are all preferencing ON over the Greens or ALP imo. Now add LNP preferences as a possibility in the future.

It may be LNP's only option to ever rule again, in a far right coalition with ON.

With that sort of support you are at around 3m+ votes in the next election and twice as big as the Greens in this country, who have won lower house seats obviously.

I'm predicting 2-3 seats for ON in the next election.

 

[nut]

My biggest concern is we’ll see a greatly increased One Nation presence in parliament. Obviously not an actual opposition, but a cohort of nasties motivated solely by spite, who actually consider themselves competent human beings.

I doubt ON can win a metro seat… so they’ll only be taking seats off the Nationals or the Libs.

 

[Fire]

My biggest concern is we’ll see a greatly increased One Nation presence in parliament. Obviously not an actual opposition, but a cohort of nasties motivated solely by spite, who actually consider themselves competent human beings.

Even if their national vote rises to 20, which would be a nearly on impossible feat in itself, its probably not enough to win a single hor seat.

The senate? They could form a sizable block. With a lot of other parties born from the fractured libs, and could easily be bypassed.

The lnp were always needed for ON to have any power. Without them they are nothing.

 

[Fire]

You think the ONLY chance a party with 18% support is to have a massive primary vote to win a seat?

I think you will find preferences change when ON emerge as a genuine power/player in the lower house.

ON is, by nature, a polarizing party. That means you either love them, or hate them. So no, they are not getting a preference flow in the range of 20-30%.

 

[The Punter]

I have been a member of the Liberal Party for over 27 years. I've never put One Nation higher in my preferences than the ALP.

 

[nut]

I have been a member of the Liberal Party for over 27 years. I've never put One Nation higher in my preferences than the ALP.

How much further right do they have to go before you cancel your membership?

 

[The Punter]

How much further right do they have to go before you cancel your membership?

Our election policy from May called for massive government ownership of energy generating assets. Consider the scattergun approach to where policy sits on the spectrum, my current assessment is based on political competence rather than ideology.

Recommence disapproving posts!

 

[nut]

Our election policy from May called for massive government ownership of energy generating assets. Consider the scattergun approach to where policy sits on the spectrum, my current assessment is based on political competence rather than ideology.

Recommence disapproving posts!

So how much more incompetence will it take to cancel your membership?

 

[The Punter]

So how much more incompetence will it take to cancel your membership?

Let me put it this way: the thought has entered my head more than once.

As I have also consistently said, the task of creating a new, viable, right-of-centre political party capable of consistently winning government is much, much, much, easier said than done.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Let me put it this way: the thought has entered my head more than once.

The Spartacist League of Australia welcomes you!