Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Not all opinions are equal, I don't pay much attention to rankings that come from the media or bigfooty, these people are consuming a fraction of the football that the recruiters are, hence why you see awful takes like Casey Voss at 15 (RIP Knightmare). I take the fact that WCE, Richmond and Essendon are all willing to bid on Dean with early picks, as validation that he is a bonafide top 5 talent. Historically, clubs have allowed NGA/Father-Son prospects to slide and I don't see much reason for that to change this year. What sounds more likely to you, Dean is rated highly at clubland or this is all a conspiracy to screw over Carlton? I'm not thrilled that a bid looks likely to come at 3, because I have him at 4 or 5 and I think this is slight overs, but I just don't see how anyone could have him outside their top 10 or top 15.

Honestly - I would go with not necessarily "screwing over" but making pay. It is a competitive environment and I have never seen why clubs like say North, let Daicos slip to 4 just so JHF could have his ego stroked that he went 1.

Given everyone knows Dean is going to go to Carlton - why would you let Carlton get him at 8 -10 (where most people have him rated) when you can force them into matching at 3 - when you have to compete against Carlton.

 

[Stamos]

what is the points total (incl picks) to match a pick 3 ?

1960 points

 

[viking12]

Honestly - I would go with not necessarily "screwing over" but making pay. It is a competitive environment and I have never seen why clubs like say North, let Daicos slip to 4 just so JHF could have his ego stroked that he went 1.

Given everyone knows Dean is going to go to Carlton - why would you let Carlton get him at 8 -10 (where most people have him rated) when you can force them into matching at 3 - when you have to compete against Carlton.

this is what Sydney has done in the last couple of years. Bidding on Academy players for Clubs to pay up.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

No...it means that someone who gets paid a lot of money to assess talent and devise list strategy, who watches every player not just those whose names they know, and who gets to interview the actual player himself has him at or around 3...probably means a little more than "track watchers" on social media.

They're not going to bid on him at 3 unless they're prepared to walk away with him at that pick. They likely know they won't, but this draft is a crapshoot and he's as good a prospect as any other - particularly if clubs are looking for high floor types who are a very good chance to walk into their established position and play 200+ games.

"They're not going to bid on him at 3 unless they're prepared to walk away with him at that pick." That is absolute BS - blind freddy can see the Blues are going to match whatever bid comes along for Dean - he fits a need for us and we have clearly designed our entire draft strategy around taking him - the Eagles know they are not going to get him - they are just smart enough to make us pay as close to full price as possible.

It helps that he is clearly the best key defender in the draft (and the Eagles currently have 1,2 & 13) so on the off chance Carlton don't bid West Coast won't be upset but them bidding on the Dean at 3 doesn't make him the 3rd best player in the draft - even if he is "a very good chance to walk into their established position and play 200+ games."

 

[Coona Blues]

How is it that when Daicos and the Ashcrofts are pretty much consenus number 1 picks they are allowed to slide 4, 2 & 5 but when we finally get a decent father son most people have rated at about 10 we cop a bid at 3?!!

Are the Eagles that upset we gave them Owies?

Reckon they will be more upset we nabbed Chesser in the scheme of things.

 

[BlueNath]

Not all opinions are equal, I don't pay much attention to rankings that come from the media or bigfooty, these people are consuming a fraction of the football that the recruiters are, hence why you see awful takes like Casey Voss at 15 (RIP Knightmare). I take the fact that WCE, Richmond and Essendon are all willing to bid on Dean with early picks, as validation that he is a bonafide top 5 talent. Historically, clubs have allowed NGA/Father-Son prospects to slide and I don't see much reason for that to change this year. What sounds more likely to you, Dean is rated highly at clubland or this is all a conspiracy to screw over Carlton? I'm not thrilled that a bid looks likely to come at 3, because I have him at 4 or 5 and I think this is slight overs, but I just don't see how anyone could have him outside their top 10 or top 15.

Agree. Heads would roll if recruiters were so reckless as to "make a club pay", only for the bid not to be matched and they are forced to accept a player higher than they had them ranked. Clubs don't spend years assessing these kids to rock up on draft night and start playing Russian roulette with their picks.

If WC bid on Dean at 3, then he is 3rd on THEIR draft board. Whether thats need based or talent based, in their assessment he would be 3. And therefore, as market forces dictate, he would be the 3rd best talent selected in this draft

 

[Bronze]

Nothing is "confirmed".

I could see Dean sliding to his original predicted pick 8-10 if we trade our Round 1 picks out. There won't be the satisfaction from WCE or Essendon to damage our draft hand.

 

[Uncle Fester]

1960 points

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

11 and 20 or

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

21, 22 and 26

sort of thing

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Harry Dean wearing 15 next year we think?

 

[Jimmae]

l believe the West Coast strategy is directed at Carlton trading 9 to Essendon, they know Essendon are super keen to get CDT, Essendon then give West Coast 5 & 6 and 9 for 2 with something coming back, believe it is more about strategy improving their draft hand having more picks inside 10.

The Essendon insiders have already wandered through BF and were chasing pick 2 on the cheap only, the real discussions were about securing Duursma.

2 & 13 for 6 & 7 makes some sense given the effective draft positions after bids.

Except for a player they rate at 3 if we don’t match.

Sure, except I don't believe that's how they actually feel.

I take it that Carlton has intel or effectively been told that Eagles or Tigers will be bidding on Dean

no way Carlton would trade out 9 and 11 if they haven't been told

Hasn't happened yet, it's just a series of deals agreed in principle should a specific set of outcomes occur.

Honestly - I would go with not necessarily "screwing over" but making pay. It is a competitive environment and I have never seen why clubs like say North, let Daicos slip to 4 just so JHF could have his ego stroked that he went 1.

Given everyone knows Dean is going to go to Carlton - why would you let Carlton get him at 8 -10 (where most people have him rated) when you can force them into matching at 3 - when you have to compete against Carlton.

Because for most clubs, that eventually comes around to bite you. Perhaps the Eagles have already conceded the Judd kids?

Regardless, there is an upper limit to how far you push that, and it will eventually either lead to a player you aren't interested in joining your list, or you getting absolutely rolled for the next 10 years by a swag of other clubs when it's your turn that will be able to hide behind the guise of being interested parties.

The whole process then further imbalances the the draft in the favour of clubs that can avoid the chaos, whether that be through a lack of academy prospects, or hiding their prospects. Fair's fair, but 3 isn't fair.

 

[bradfisher14]

Harry Dean wearing 15 next year we think?

Nah, Billy moves to 15 to vacate 35 for Harry I reckon.

 

[Coona Blues]

Harry Dean wearing 15 next year we think?

Reckon he gets #35 on draft night unless Billy has an issue.

15 from a mentor available, 30 from a mate (think were housemates) along with famous #25 still available

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

The Essendon insiders have already wandered through BF and were chasing pick 2 on the cheap only, the real discussions were about securing Duursma.

2 & 13 for 6 & 7 makes some sense given the effective draft positions after bids.

Sure, except I don't believe that's how they actually feel.

Hasn't happened yet, it's just a series of deals agreed in principle should a specific set of outcomes occur.

Because for most clubs, that eventually comes around to bite you. Perhaps the Eagles have already conceded the Judd kids?

Regardless, there is an upper limit to how far you push that, and it will eventually either lead to a player you aren't interested in joining your list, or you getting absolutely rolled for the next 10 years by a swag of other clubs when it's your turn that will be able to hide behind the guise of being interested parties.

The whole process then further imbalances the the draft in the favour of clubs that can avoid the chaos, whether that be through a lack of academy prospects, or hiding their prospects. Fair's fair, but 3 isn't fair.

There is an upper limit but do you really think North would have been worse off bidding on Daicos than taking JHF?

And for most clubs it comes back to bite you? Really most? You need to have the club you bid against to finish significantly below you in a year you have a father son as a top draft pick - how often would that happen?

 

[Jimmae]

There is an upper limit but do you really think North would have been worse off bidding on Daicos than taking JHF?

And for most clubs it comes back to bite you? Really most? You need to have the club you bid against to finish significantly below you in a year you have a father son as a top draft pick - how often would that happen?

That's a different scenario, and you can go back and see where I said Daicos should be the first bid for that draft, and that he was my #1 for the draft. I likened him to his idol, Marc Murphy.

Dean is not at that talent level, and frankly neither is Duursma or anyone else in this draft. Cumming and Robey have that kind of ceiling, but nothing like the production.

As for turnabout, there's more than one club participating. They all sit up and take notice when people are taking cheap shots.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Things change people. Let's wait till Wednesday.

You’re all setting yourselves up for disappointment.

No club suddenly abandons a strategy they’ve had locked in for weeks just to spare another club’s feelings.

 

[Mondyboy]

You’re all setting yourselves up for disappointment.

No club suddenly abandons a strategy they’ve had locked in for weeks just to spare another club’s feelings.

We will need that pick 30 then. 21, 25, 27 or 20, 24 and 26 will be swallowed with a few points still needed and if we use 46 we won't have enough for Ison.

 

[Flaggers22]

Honestly - I would go with not necessarily "screwing over" but making pay. It is a competitive environment and I have never seen why clubs like say North, let Daicos slip to 4 just so JHF could have his ego stroked that he went 1.

Pick 1 is marketing tool and they also get a 10k bonus. I think it only makes sense to place a bid at 1 if the NGA/Father-Son player is clearly better than the alternative (we might see that next year with Cochrane and Cody). With hindsight we now know that Daicos is a much better player than JHF, but at the time he hadn't played competitive football for 2 years due to COVID, whilst JHF was dominating in the SANFL. It's an aberration.

Given everyone knows Dean is going to go to Carlton - why would you let Carlton get him at 8 -10 (where most people have him rated) when you can force them into matching at 3 - when you have to compete against Carlton.

Well you run the risk that the club declines to match, I hear that worked out well for Dodoro and Irving Mosquito. You also run the risk that you're hit with a retaliatory bid down the line. Moreover, if that was their logic, why wouldn't they bid on Patterson and Annable before Dean? GC and Brisbane are much bigger threats than Carlton, they get gifted high end academy talent year after year. I think the simpler explanation is just that West Coast really rate Dean.

 

[Mondyboy]

We will need that pick 30 then. 21, 25, 27 or 20, 24 and 26 will be swallowed with a few points still needed and if we use 46 we won't have enough for Ison.

And if there's a bid for Ison at 21, we will need to retain 43.

 

[ctwenty1]

1960 points

with the 10% discount already bundled in

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Before Twomey's phantom drops, I thought I'd chuck together a little phantom draft for the top 40. Probably end up a way off reality on the night but bit of fun anyway.

1: WCE - Willem Duursma
2: GCS - Zeke Uwland (Matched bid from WCE)
3: CARL - Harry Dean (Matched bid from WCE)
4: WCE - Cooper Duff-Tytler
5: GCS - Dylan Patterson (Matched bid from RICH)
6: BRIS - Dan Annable (Matched bid from RICH)
7: RICH - Xavier Taylor
8: RICH - Sam Cumming
9: ESS - Sullivan Robey
10: ESS - Dyson Sharp
11: MELB - Sam Grlj
12: MELB - Cameron Nairn
13: ESS - Lachie Dovaston (Pick traded from CARL)
14: HAW - Jacob Farrow
15: NM - Aiden Schubert (Pick traded from CARL)
16: SYD - Harry Kyle (Matched bid from GWS)
17: GWS - Oskar Taylor
18: WCE - Blake Thredgold
19: WBD - Latrelle Pickett
20: GCS - Jai Murray (Matched bid from ADE)
21: ADE - Harley Barker
22: CARL - Jack Ison (Matched bid from GEEL)
23: WCE - Tylah Williams (Matched bid from GEEL)
24: GEEL - Mitchell Marsh
25: SYD - Max King

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

(Matched bid from FRE)
26: FRE - Josh Lindsay
27: HAW - Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves
28: NM - Hugo Mikunda
29: WBD - Oliver Greeves
30: STK - Jevan Phillipou (Pick traded from GWS)
31: COLL - Zac McCarthy (Matched bid from MEL)
32: MELB - Archie Ludowyke
33: RICH - Leon Kickett
34: GEEL - Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier
35: WCE - Rory Wright
36: COLL - Beau Addinsall (Bid match passed on by GCS)
37: CARL - Max Kondogiannis
38: GEEL - Jesse Mellor (Matched bid from BRIS)
39: BRIS - Avery Thomas
40: FRE - Fred Rodriguez

 

[macky99]

You’re all setting yourselves up for disappointment.

No club suddenly abandons a strategy they’ve had locked in for weeks just to spare another club’s feelings.

Not sure what the tangible benefit is for West Coast ,Carlton will trade the picks to Essendon & North, still believe there must be a deal with Essendon that provides some benefit to West Coast in this.
Regardless of whether WC rate Dean at 3 or not clearly Carlton are matching so it seems pointless unless the tangible benefit of another trade.

 

[Pablito]

You’re all setting yourselves up for disappointment.

No club suddenly abandons a strategy they’ve had locked in for weeks just to spare another club’s feelings.

Maybe its a bluff/threat, to incentivise us to trade down to them?

 

[ctwenty1]

Before Twomey's phantom drops, I thought I'd chuck together a little phantom draft for the top 40. Probably end up a way off reality on the night but bit of fun anyway.

1: WCE - Willem Duursma
2: GCS - Zeke Uwland (Matched bid from WCE)
3: CARL - Harry Dean (Matched bid from WCE)
4: WCE - Cooper Duff-Tytler
5: GCS - Dylan Patterson (Matched bid from RICH)
6: BRIS - Dan Annable (Matched bid from RICH)
7: RICH - Xavier Taylor
8: RICH - Sam Cumming
9: ESS - Sullivan Robey
10: ESS - Dyson Sharp
11: MELB - Sam Grlj
12: MELB - Cameron Nairn
13: ESS - Lachie Dovaston (Pick traded from CARL)
14: HAW - Jacob Farrow
15: NM - Aiden Schubert (Pick traded from CARL)
16: SYD - Harry Kyle (Matched bid from GWS)
17: GWS - Oskar Taylor
18: WCE - Blake Thredgold
19: WBD - Latrelle Pickett
20: GCS - Jai Murray (Matched bid from ADE)
21: ADE - Harley Barker
22: CARL - Jack Ison (Matched bid from GEEL)
23: WCE - Tylah Williams (Matched bid from GEEL)
24: GEEL - Mitchell Marsh
25: SYD - Max King (Matched bid from FRE)
26: FRE - Josh Lindsay
27: HAW - Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves
28: NM - Hugo Mikunda
29: WBD - Oliver Greeves
30: STK - Jevan Phillipou (Pick traded from GWS)
31: COLL - Zac McCarthy (Matched bid from MEL)
32: MELB - Archie Ludowyke
33: RICH - Leon Kickett
34: GEEL - Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier
35: WCE - Rory Wright
36: COLL - Beau Addinsall (Bid match passed on by GCS)
37: CARL - Max Kondogiannis
38: GEEL - Jesse Mellor (Matched bid from BRIS)
39: BRIS - Avery Thomas
40: FRE - Fred Rodriguez

a few sliders there..

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

Has Harry Kyle been a bolter. Though king and Carmichael were spoken ahead of him majority of the year

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Suddenly I’m left now hoping that Ess secure Pick 2.

Conspiracy theory: WCE tell us they are bidding at 3 to fast track our trade with Ess .. and allow Ess to send them 5,6 and 9 for 2 and 13?