Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

a few sliders there..

A concerning amount of sliders... Lindsay at 26 would just about make me puke if it came to fruition.

 

[ferrisb]

I'll be directing that to WCE on draft night...

 

[macky99]

Before Twomey's phantom drops, I thought I'd chuck together a little phantom draft for the top 40. Probably end up a way off reality on the night but bit of fun anyway.

1: WCE - Willem Duursma
2: GCS - Zeke Uwland (Matched bid from WCE)
3: CARL - Harry Dean (Matched bid from WCE)
4: WCE - Cooper Duff-Tytler
5: GCS - Dylan Patterson (Matched bid from RICH)
6: BRIS - Dan Annable (Matched bid from RICH)
7: RICH - Xavier Taylor
8: RICH - Sam Cumming
9: ESS - Sullivan Robey
10: ESS - Dyson Sharp
11: MELB - Sam Grlj
12: MELB - Cameron Nairn
13: ESS - Lachie Dovaston (Pick traded from CARL)
14: HAW - Jacob Farrow
15: NM - Aiden Schubert (Pick traded from CARL)
16: SYD - Harry Kyle (Matched bid from GWS)
17: GWS - Oskar Taylor
18: WCE - Blake Thredgold
19: WBD - Latrelle Pickett
20: GCS - Jai Murray (Matched bid from ADE)
21: ADE - Harley Barker
22: CARL - Jack Ison (Matched bid from GEEL)
23: WCE - Tylah Williams (Matched bid from GEEL)
24: GEEL - Mitchell Marsh
25: SYD - Max King (Matched bid from FRE)
26: FRE - Josh Lindsay
27: HAW - Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves
28: NM - Hugo Mikunda
29: WBD - Oliver Greeves
30: STK - Jevan Phillipou (Pick traded from GWS)
31: COLL - Zac McCarthy (Matched bid from MEL)
32: MELB - Archie Ludowyke
33: RICH - Leon Kickett
34: GEEL - Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier
35: WCE - Rory Wright
36: COLL - Beau Addinsall (Bid match passed on by GCS)
37: CARL - Max Kondogiannis
38: GEEL - Jesse Mellor (Matched bid from BRIS)
39: BRIS - Avery Thomas
40: FRE - Fred Rodriguez

Lindsay at 26 absolute steal if he drops that far.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

That's a different scenario, and you can go back and see where I said Daicos should be the first bid for that draft, and that he was my #1 for the draft. I likened him to his idol, Marc Murphy.

Dean is not at that talent level, and frankly neither is Duursma or anyone else in this draft. Cumming and Robey have that kind of ceiling, but nothing like the production.

As for turnabout, there's more than one club participating. They all sit up and take notice when people are taking cheap shots.

Dean is not that level of talent but the Eagles will take him at 3 when Daicos went at 4?

It's not taking "cheap shots" (like bidding at 3 for a JSOS) it is just making competitors pay full price

 

[Blue and Silver]

Suddenly I’m left now hoping that Ess secure Pick 2.

Conspiracy theory: WCE tell us they are bidding at 3 to fast track our trade with Ess .. and allow Ess to send them 5,6 and 9 for 2 and 13?

They could still bid and then trade

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Pick 1 is marketing tool and they also get a 10k bonus. I think it only makes sense to place a bid at 1 if the NGA/Father-Son player is clearly better than the alternative (we might see that next year with Cochrane and Cody). With hindsight we now know that Daicos is a much better player than JHF, but at the time he hadn't played competitive football for 2 years due to COVID, whilst JHF was dominating in the SANFL. It's an aberration.

Well you run the risk that the club declines to match, I hear that worked out well for Dodoro and Irving Mosquito. You also run the risk that you're hit with a retaliatory bid down the line. Moreover, if that was their logic, why wouldn't they bid on Patterson and Annable before Dean? GC and Brisbane are much bigger threats than Carlton, they get gifted high end academy talent year after year. I think the simpler explanation is just that West Coast really rate Dean.

Pick 1 is also a lot of pressure - and $10k is bugger all when the average salary is $400k.

I would bid on Paterson, Annable and Dean if I was them - there is no way any of the clubs decline on those 3

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Lindsay at 26 absolute steal if he drops that far.

I'd be baffled if he did, but going through teams list needs and the rumoured bids that's what I ended up with.

But... stranger things have happened! I'm still shocked Shanahan made it as far as he did last year, kid was an absolute gun at CTL and VFL level.

 

[marcmurphy3]

You’re all setting yourselves up for disappointment.

No club suddenly abandons a strategy they’ve had locked in for weeks just to spare another club’s feelings.

Wouldnt surprise me if WC already told us their bidding plans. There is already going to be ill will on our end. No need to add shock factor to it.

 

[Jimmae]

Suddenly I’m left now hoping that Ess secure Pick 2.

Conspiracy theory: WCE tell us they are bidding at 3 to fast track our trade with Ess .. and allow Ess to send them 5,6 and 9 for 2 and 13?

I don't think Essendon would ever agree to that straight trade, you'd expect a sizeable future pick in return.

2 and 13 for 5 and 6 seems fine to me, maybe throwing in 41 if the Eagles are asking for a little more. CDT is quality, but he's in that same talent bracket as a bunch of quality mids, and you need a system for that kind of ruck to be valuable.

The Dons don't have the inside mid to make that work, and the trade would remove their ability to acquire one. Otherwise it's a high price to pay to get ahead of Richmond.

Dean is not that level of talent but the Eagles will take him at 3 when Daicos went at 4?

It's not taking "cheap shots" (like bidding at 3 for a JSOS) it is just making competitors pay full price

It's not the same draft pool. I can't make that any clearer.

Within this draft pool, I have Dean at 9-14. Pure talent watchers have him similar, but they - like me - are disregarding list needs and shenanigans. They all agree he is not going to work wonders with the footy in hand, he's just going to close down opponents and confidently intercept when the opportunity arises.

Comparing him to Weitering is genuinely comparing two different classes of junior. Weiters ran all day and was/is an elite kick, Dean is not at that level despite being a bit quicker in terms of raw speed.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Nice effort WalshistheGOAT

 

[carlton_99]

Cal must feel so powerful right now

 

[ctwenty1]

A concerning amount of sliders... Lindsay at 26 would just about make me puke if it came to fruition.

that one stood out to me

 

[ctwenty1]

Cal must feel so powerful right now

which club is he a recruiter/LM for?

 

[We may never win again]

When does Cals phantom draft actually drop?

 

[carlton_99]

which club is he a recruiter/LM for?

Cal Twomey the journalist

 

[carlton_99]

When does Cals phantom draft actually drop?

It was 5pm last year. 6pm the year before. And then a bit after 6pm in 2022. So should be soon

 

[Flaggers22]

I would bid on Paterson, Annable and Dean if I was them - there is no way any of the clubs decline on those 3

Yes, but it seems like they won't do that, so it doesn't fit that well with your theory. Why stop at Dean and Uwland and not bid on Annable and/or Patterson if it's all about keeping clubs honest? Occam's Razor tells me they're just bidding on the guys they think are worthy of a bid at 2/3.

 

[carlton_99]

Cal Twomey's 2025 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, whispers

Who will your club take in this year's Telstra AFL Draft? Our expert makes the call

www.afl.com.au

 

[Pinnell]

I hope Noah Hibbins- Hargreaves slides and we can pick him up. Could be a dynamic goal kicking wing/HHF like Ollie Dempsey

 

[carlton_99]

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Can't really blame the club for bids coming earlier then expected. Made it hard to plan. The club has always said, they would decide what to do with the picks closer to the draft, when it was clearer where bids would land. Thats what they are doing.

Even if whats been reported does occur, I dont think we end up disadvantaged, its just not really much advantage anymore. End up paying 95c on the dollar for our guys. Still worth it but not by that much.

Only thing is, I’d prefer to trade on the night but I guess you need the trading partner to agree to that.

 

[carlton_99]

I put the picks 1-30 from Cal's phantom draft into the simulator. I have also assumed the deal with * would be 9 + 43 for 21, 27 and 30. And the deal for North 11 for 25 and F2.

It would leave Carlton with picks 47 and 49 in this year's draft at the end of Night 1. Plus the F2 from North. If we kept 9 + 11 and the picks went in the same order we would have 42 and 50 at the end of Night 1 with no F2.

 

[tragic]

I put the picks 1-30 from Cal's phantom draft into the simulator. I have also assumed the deal with * would be 9 + 43 for 21, 27 and 30. And the deal for North 11 for 25 and F2.

It would leave Carlton with picks 47 and 49 in this year's draft at the end of Night 1.

I think we get pick 46 from North also in the proposed trade

 

[Red Bull]

Cal Twomey's 2025 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, whispers

Who will your club take in this year's Telstra AFL Draft? Our expert makes the call

www.afl.com.au

View attachment Dirty Harry - Clint Eastwood - Stick It In Your Ass.mp4

 

[Soapy V]

Twomey is writing we are taking three picks.

A late one for Toby Murray a real possibility

That leaves one spot for pre season draft or SSP

Surely that is on a KPP