Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Soapy V]

Lindsay at 26 absolute steal if he drops that far.

That would make me re think our strategy

 

[carlton_99]

I think we get pick 46 from North also in the proposed trade

Yep I was just assuming the worst with my projections but that would give us a few more points to work with.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Suddenly I’m left now hoping that Ess secure Pick 2.

Conspiracy theory: WCE tell us they are bidding at 3 to fast track our trade with Ess .. and allow Ess to send them 5,6 and 9 for 2 and 13?

I hope WC are dumb enough to trade pick 2 to * and lose CDT. That would be a lol.

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

This club is cursed. How is Dean bid on at pick 3…. Seriously?!

 

[Gointocarlton]

Nice effort WalshistheGOAT

x2

 

[Gointocarlton]

I have tried looking but cant find it, can some explain in simple terms the purpose of trading 9 and 11 and what the trades with Ess and NM would be.
I dont get it.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Can see the AFL quietly walking back the proposed 2026 changes after pushback from the clubs and the new DVI working as intended this year

What changes? There’s been absolutely zero confirmation on any changes. Even the clubs have no idea, and that tells me nothing will change as plenty of picks flew about during the recent trade period

 

[GT619]

This club is cursed. How is Dean bid on at pick 3…. Seriously?!

tell west coast

 

[GT619]

wake me up when its over

 

[carlton_99]

I have tried looking but cant find it, can some explain in simple terms the purpose of trading 9 and 11 and what the trades with Ess and NM would be.
I dont get it.

It's all reports atm but seems like it will be something like:

9 + 43 for 21, 27 and 30 (with *)
11 for 25, F2 (and potentially 46) (with NM)

 

[BluesForEternity]

I have tried looking but cant find it, can some explain in simple terms the purpose of trading 9 and 11 and what the trades with Ess and NM would be.
I dont get it.

If we keep 9 and 11, we will get Dean and Ison and that's it.

If we do the trade, we will get Dean, Ison, and North's 2026 2nd round pick.

The way this works is that we will get a bunch of picks that are worth considerably more points overall than Pick 9 from Essendon. We will then give up some points from 2025 and "bank" them into 2026, by trading for a future 2nd round pick with North and some 2025 picks.

The likely trades are something like:

Trade #1 (Essendon):
Out: 9, 43, 54
In: 21, 27, 30
Outcome: Net gain of a few hundred points for us, an extra high end pick for Essendon.

Trade #2 (North):
Out: Pick 11
In: 25, 46, Future 2nd
Outcome: North gets to the top end of the draft (and still has a mid-20s pick to get a second solid kid). We lose points but still have enough for both Dean and Ison, whilst also banking in a future 2nd round to help with Cody Walker next year.

 

[Gointocarlton]

If we keep 9 and 11, we will get Dean and Ison and that's it.

If we do the trade, we will get Dean, Ison, and North's 2026 2nd round pick.

The way this works is that we will get a bunch of picks that are worth considerably more points overall than Pick 9 from Essendon. We will then give up some points from 2025 and "bank" them into 2026, by trading for a future 2nd round pick with North and some 2025 picks.

The likely trades are something like:

Trade #1 (Essendon):
Out: 9, 43, 54
In: 21, 27, 30
Outcome: Net gain of a few hundred points for us, an extra high end pick for Essendon.

Trade #2 (North):
Out: Pick 11
In: 25, 46, Future 2nd
Outcome: North gets to the top end of the draft (and still has a mid-20s pick to get a second solid kid). We lose points but still have enough for both Dean and Ison, whilst also banking in a future 2nd round to help with Cody Walker next year.

Right, so we will in no way jeopardise getting Dean and Ison or Walker next year?

 

[mrkyuss]

So we are gifting north and Essendon with extra firsts this year to gain one second next year ? Is that actually worth it ? Guess we are the “nice to do deals with club “ and get walked over by the rest so probably is !

I do get the supporters frustration- WC gifted pick 2 for Allan , the Starcevich compo and extra lists spots shouldn’t also mean they have input in to screwing other teams as well. But here we are….

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Going through all the emotions.

• Academy players have ruined any equalisation and the draft as a whole.
• The draft to me is now boring and commercialised.
• Dean and walker, have cost us Curnow, De Koning, Silvagni + our F1.

Oh and **** west coast, karma is a bitch!

More than OK with this.

 

[Stamos]

Right, so we will in no way jeopardise getting Dean and Ison or Walker next year?

We will actually be better off in terms of being able to get all 3

 

[JJBagger]

This club is cursed. How is Dean bid on at pick 3…. Seriously?!

Why are we not celebrating it? The fact we have a player that highly rated is awesome

 

[carlton_99]

I put the picks 1-30 from Cal's phantom draft into the simulator. I have also assumed the deal with * would be 9 + 43 for 21, 27 and 30. And the deal for North 11 for 25 and F2.

It would leave Carlton with picks 47 and 49 in this year's draft at the end of Night 1. Plus the F2 from North. If we kept 9 + 11 and the picks went in the same order we would have 42 and 50 at the end of Night 1 with no F2.

I also just ran this if we also got back 46 from the North deal (so 11 for 25, 46 and F2). Would leave us with 41, 47 and 48 as picks at the end of Night 1 which combined is the points equivalent of ~ Pick 31. Maybe we could try and package and move up if someone needs points in this situation. Or we could just shift them into next year for another F2/F3.

 

[Stamos]

I also just ran this if we also got back 46 from the North deal (so 11 for 25, 46 and F2). Would leave us with 41, 47 and 48 as picks at the end of Night 1 which combined is the points equivalent of ~ Pick 31. Maybe we could try and package and move up if someone needs points in this situation. Or it might be ideal to shift them into next year for another F2/F3.

You would think there would be a few clubs needing points who might offer Futures.

 

[El Topo]

What changes? There’s been absolutely zero confirmation on any changes. Even the clubs have no idea, and that tells me nothing will change as plenty of picks flew about during the recent trade period

agree that this is probably the case - but it's also the AFL we're talking about

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Going through all the emotions.

• Academy players have ruined any equalisation and the draft as a whole.
• The draft to me is now boring and commercialised.
• Dean and walker, have cost us Curnow, De Koning, Silvagni + our F1.

Oh and **** west coast, karma is a bitch!

But really,

Curnow + TDK + Silvagni + 26F1 x2

Gets us:

Dean + Ison + Walker + Hayward + ~#47 + 26F2(North) + 27F1(Swans)

 

[teagueyubeauty]

I’m very excited to get Dean at wherever he falls. He’s going to be a gun.

My gripe is how we’ve gone (or will go) about getting him in. I think in the past other clubs have been more shrewd with their pick trading to avoid these tough calls. We’ve brought in five additional first round picks by losing three best 22 players and we’re still caught in a tough spot where it looks like we’ll pay (imo) overs for these players.

Walker could fall off the face of the Earth next year. The trade rumours suggest we are really concerned about matching him. I’d sooner go into a deficit in 2027 (if he does remain a top 3 prospect) if it meant maximising our draft hand this year.

Let me reiterate, I’m very happy to have Dean and Ison. I’m not happy with clubs pushing us around because they can. It’s all good saying yeah we trust Austin and Wright and the process, 17 other clubs also have a plan in place as well and they aren’t looking to benefit us.

You realise the DVI and % reduction has changed yeah? The conditions are not 2024 draft conditions

You’re complaining about apples for apples when those apples are not the same from 2024 to 2025.

Who did we lose? Curnow yep I’ll give you that one but he was flipping putrid in 2025 and gave up because it got too hard…that’s not someone you want on your list at any point let alone someone eating up a shed load of your salary cap. We did very well out of that trade

TDK? Mate 1.8 over 8 If the compo was 9 and 10 I still wouldn’t do it, that’s crazy cash for a barely there top 100 player…that’s 2 TV rights cycles away.

JSOS? Spare me, he’s been at very best serviceable. We made out like bandits

 

[Bluebag13]

This club is cursed. How is Dean bid on at pick 3…. Seriously?!

Because he is a gun!!
It’s a bloody blessing !

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Understand, but those players were rated top 3 picks by the 'experts'. Harry has never been seen as a top 5 pick in this draft, with many having him outside the top 10.

Who?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Because he is a gun!!
It’s a bloody blessing !

He's not top 3...

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I also just ran this if we also got back 46 from the North deal (so 11 for 25, 46 and F2). Would leave us with 41, 47 and 48 as picks at the end of Night 1 which combined is the points equivalent of ~ Pick 31. Maybe we could try and package and move up if someone needs points in this situation. Or we could just shift them into next year for another F2/F3.

Or we trade down with GCS to give them additional points for this year after the Dean bid/match is done.

Offer them pick 24/25 for one of their lower picks plus their 2026 2nd.