Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[carlton_99]

Or we trade down with GCS to give them additional points for this year after the Dean bid/match is done.

Offer them pick 24/25 for one of their lower picks plus their 2026 2nd.

Next minute Ison bid at Pick 5...

 

[DZ4]

You realise the DVI and % reduction has changed yeah? The conditions are not 2024 draft conditions

You’re complaining about apples for apples when those apples are not the same from 2024 to 2025.

Who did we lose? Curnow yep I’ll give you that one but he was flipping putrid in 2025 and gave up because it got too hard…that’s not someone you want on your list at any point let alone someone eating up a shed load of your salary cap. We did very well out of that trade

TDK? Mate 1.8 over 8 If the compo was 9 and 10 I still wouldn’t do it, that’s crazy cash for a barely there top 100 player…that’s 2 TV rights cycles away.

JSOS? Spare me, he’s been at very best serviceable. We made out like bandits

Yes I realise the rules have changed.

I’m not complaining and I’ve acknowledged it’s been a difficult trade period to navigate. I’m just not showing blind faith in a club that has proven time and time again it doesn’t deserve that.

That’s a very optimistic outlook on our trade period. All three players had to go for different reasons, all three will be huge losses to our prospects over the next 2-3 years. I felt we got well compensated for them all but that compensation will be diluted after the trades and early bids on Wednesday night.

 

[Flaggers22]

Who?

Harry Dean isn't a top 10 pick because Jasper Chellappah, Dylan Alexander and PMBangers said so. I'll go with the clubs every day of the week over media pundits and Bigfooty posters, at least I know the recruiters are actually watching the games, and have access to advanced analytics, psych profiles and so on. I remember Dylan Alexander saying Dean wasn't a top 10 prospect because he had concerns about his speed (like seriously?) and that Mitch Marsh kicked 5 goals on him, it was just lazy analysis. If you watch the highlights from that game, you'd see that Marsh only kicked 2 goals when marked by Dean and they both came from bullet passes that were impossible to stop.

 

[sweethoney]

But really,

Curnow + TDK + Silvagni + 26F1 x2

Gets us:

Dean + Ison + Walker + Hayward + ~#47 + 26F2(North) + 27F1(Swans)

Forgot swans 2026 first rounder

 

[BobP]

Hopefully the Carlton recruiting team have a long memory. Have to get WC back for this at some stage.

 

[BobP]

But now that I think about it it's really not that big of a deal. We started with 2 first round picks in 9 and 11 and we'll finish up with 2 first round players in Dean and Ison.

 

[gandaal]

Campbell Chesser essentially costing us a first round pick is pretty funny.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Before Twomey's phantom drops, I thought I'd chuck together a little phantom draft for the top 40. Probably end up a way off reality on the night but bit of fun anyway.

1: WCE - Willem Duursma
2: GCS - Zeke Uwland (Matched bid from WCE)
3: CARL - Harry Dean (Matched bid from WCE)
4: WCE - Cooper Duff-Tytler
5: GCS - Dylan Patterson (Matched bid from RICH)
6: BRIS - Dan Annable (Matched bid from RICH)
7: RICH - Xavier Taylor
8: RICH - Sam Cumming
9: ESS - Sullivan Robey
10: ESS - Dyson Sharp
11: MELB - Sam Grlj
12: MELB - Cameron Nairn
13: ESS - Lachie Dovaston (Pick traded from CARL)
14: HAW - Jacob Farrow
15: NM - Aiden Schubert (Pick traded from CARL)
16: SYD - Harry Kyle (Matched bid from GWS)
17: GWS - Oskar Taylor
18: WCE - Blake Thredgold
19: WBD - Latrelle Pickett
20: GCS - Jai Murray (Matched bid from ADE)
21: ADE - Harley Barker
22: CARL - Jack Ison (Matched bid from GEEL)
23: WCE - Tylah Williams (Matched bid from GEEL)
24: GEEL - Mitchell Marsh
25: SYD - Max King (Matched bid from FRE)
26: FRE - Josh Lindsay
27: HAW - Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves
28: NM - Hugo Mikunda
29: WBD - Oliver Greeves
30: STK - Jevan Phillipou (Pick traded from GWS)

Well... Actually looks like I got a few spot on according to Twomey's phantom draft guide Hope Melbourne don't pass on Grlj though, seeing the Hawks pick him up at 14 will hurt my soul.

The WCE bids on Murray and Addinsall to force one of them out is an interesting strategy though! Don't mind it.

Greeves not in the 30 is pretty brutal too.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Harry Dean isn't a top 10 pick because Jasper Chellappah, Dylan Alexander and PMBangers said so. I'll go with the clubs every day of the week over media pundits and Bigfooty posters, at least I know the recruiters are actually watching the games, and have access to advanced analytics, psych profiles and so on. I remember Dylan Alexander saying Dean wasn't a top 10 prospect because he had concerns about his speed (like seriously?) and that Mitch Marsh kicked 5 goals on him, it was just lazy analysis. If you watch the highlights from that game, you'd see that Marsh only kicked 2 goals when marked by Dean and they both came from bullet passes that were impossible to stop.

Annable is a top 3 pick, if not the best player in the draft but Dean will be bid on earlier because of the vibe!!!!

 

[macky99]

Annable is a top 3 pick, if not the best player in the draft but Dean will be bid on earlier because of the vibe!!!!

Agree he is a gun player, definitely would still rate Dean around 6-7 choice in this draft, Annable is probably the safest option, Cooper Duff Tyler & Sullivan Robey with the most upside.

 

[Flaggers22]

Annable is a top 3 pick, if not the best player in the draft but Dean will be bid on earlier because of the vibe!!!!

I completely disagree, the only players I'd rate above Dean in this draft are Duursma, Robey, Patterson and Uwland (not 100% convinced on Uwland because of the lack of data, but he was excellent last year, so if we assume he develops at a natural trajectory he likely warrants a spot in the top 3). Annable has high IQ and along with Sharp is probably the best ball winner in the class, however, his kicking is very erratic and I don't think he has any standout athletic traits either. Whereas Dean will be one of the quickest KPD's in the league next year and he's an excellent mark, both traits are highly desirable for his position.

 

[SurreyBlue]

I completely disagree, the only players I'd rate above Dean in this draft are Duursma, Robey, Patterson and Uwland (not 100% convinced on Uwland because of the lack of data, but he was excellent last year, so assuming a natural trajectory he likely warrants a spot in the top 3). Annable has high IQ and along with Sharp is probably the best ball winner in the class, however, his kicking is very erratic and I don't think he has any standout athletic traits either. Whereas Dean will be one of the quickest KPD's in the league next year and he's an excellent mark, both traits are highly desirable for his position.

Happy to revisit in 12 months time.

 

[dangertroy]

I get a lot of the emotion that we’re being ‘screwed’ by the Dean bid. Last year he wasn’t even tipped in the first round and now he’s going to go in the top 3? Feels unfair.

Almost as unfair as it was last year when we picked up 2 father sons that the year earlier were looking like an early first and mid second round picks. And we only had to pay a couple of picks in the 40s and 50s for them. Both of these things are unfair.

And don’t say it isn’t because the campos didn’t come on as much as we thought they would a year out - we got them for such a bargain, we snuck in HOF before them.

We should be stoked that Dean and Ison have both exceeded expectations and are going to cost us bids in the first round. We still get them both, we just might not get another speculative mid 20s pick in a weak draft.

Yeah, we’re copping it the year the point system changed and now the clubs are going to keep each other a bit more honest. But if we’re the victims of bad luck this year, then we were extremely lucky last year.

But I think our luck is better this year - I’d rather have to pay more because our father son became the best KPD in the draft then pay less because the rest of the industry didn’t rate them.

 

[Blue By Blood]

I love how definitive you are.
What's the strike rate of the best recruiters in the AFL?

Still waiting for you to cite "everyone else" calling the bid for Dean at 9-14?

Jimmae also disliked my post back in early October and said this pretty definitive statement. After I said Dean would go early:

"We've already covered that there's almost no chance of a Dean bid before pick 10 (i.e. the Dogs' pick)."

Now this isn't a pot shot against Jimmae, not at all, because I genuinely like what he brings to our board and the arguments he throws up and the passion he shows. But it just shows that even people throwing around definitive statements usually don't know how it will pan out- it's all opinion and passion and should be treated as such- just discussion points to see things from a different angle whether we agree or not.

I think we all would have loved that additional first round player as it's a shiny new toy and makes us feel better about not simply getting players that were already tied to us. But the reality is this was the perfect bad luck storm.. the rules have changed making it harder to get F/S and academy and it's a weaker draft that very few, if any, want to burn first round picks trading into. This hampered what we could do so if that Dean bid comes early we have those pick swap trades lined up as security. I think the AFL should see how the new rules have worked and not stuff around with them any more next year or drop in any further changes after teams have already done their planning and trades.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

I’m not sure if it’s the #9, his wiry frame, or even the haircut, but Felix Kneipp (who Cal linked us to) has a bit of that Zac Butters/Jagga vibe in the way he moves.

 

[katmanblue]

The discussion:

Twomey - WCE rate Dean as a top 3 talent and may cast a bid on him at pick 3...

Carlton fans who watched three 5 minute videos on YouTube last week - "DEAN ISN'T WORTH IT WE ARE BEING HELD TO RANSOM AND NEED TO PASS ON HIM TO TAKE SHARP AND DOVASTON!!!!!! CLUB NEEDS TO BE MORE RUTHLESS!!!!"

To me it's annoying that it seems like WC are just trying to **** us. They know we'll match anywhere and instead of making the QLD teams (with a score of NGA, Academy and FS players in their side) pay up, they're going after our guy for zero gain to themselves, knowing well trade out.

 

[Bletch]

To me it's annoying that it seems like WC are just trying to **** us. They know we'll match anywhere and instead of making the QLD teams (with a score of NGA, Academy and FS players in there side) pay up, they're vi

I think it's more a factor of the changes in the bidding system. Can't really compare this year to previous years (in terms of when players attract bids). AFL royally screwing us again.

 

[katmanblue]

I think you will be shocked at just how non-shocked you are about to be.

 

[katmanblue]

I think it's more a factor of the changes in the bidding system. Can't really compare this year to previous years (in terms of when players attract bids). AFL royally screwing us again.

I know. But they're still letting them off the hook by going Dean early, instead of the GC and Brisbane tied kids. Shits me that we seem to be on the wrong side of these ledgers so often.

 

[Bfevola]

Right we straight out tell them we are going after Harley and Durrsma in a few years time. Yasmin link !!

I hope we have some shit about us and actually make it personal.

 

[Bletch]

I know. But they're still letting them off the hook by going Dean early, instead of the GC and Brisbane tied kids. Shits me that we seem to be on the wrong side of these ledgers so often.

Yeah, I had been thinking WC might even bid on all 4. But CT has just the 2 (with Tigs bidding on the other 2 with the next picks).

 

[Mondyboy]

I’m not sure if it’s the #9, his wiry frame, or even the haircut, but Felix Kneipp (who Cal linked us to) has a bit of that Zac Butters/Jagga vibe in the way he moves.

Prefers to handball than kick. His kicking doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

[Bletch]

Yeah, I had been thinking WC might even bid on all 4. But CT has just the 2 (with Tigs bidding on the other 2 with the next picks).

And note he has WC bidding on 2 more of GC's kids later in round 1.

 

[Mondyboy]

Right we straight out tell them we are going after Harley and Durrsma in a few years time. Yasmin link !!

I hope we have some shit about us and actually make it personal.

Didn't Yaz and Harley break-up? I can't believe I just typed that.

 

[DangerousD]

Really?

Depth was No1 issue and we went hard and addressed it
We need run through middle and have Jagga coming back and deliberately chased Chesser for this reason
lacked forward craft and got Ainsworth & Hayward
Added a KPD (needed)
Need a KPF but how and who?
Development was major issue and we have addressed that

We now have a heap of young talent that could easily fill most issues we have. Gives us 12 months to assess and we then have a heap of picks (will add Walker) over next two years to really complete list

I am really not sure given options and system what more we could have done?

If depth was our number 1 issue, I’m not sure it’s been addressed, we lost a lot of experience and quality over the trade period.

I am hopeful though, that the players we brought in, cancel out the players that left, to me that’s not adding depth.

Dean seems quality but I haven’t seen anyone refer to him as a KPD, if that what he turns in to, then fantastic.

I am however theorising about our potential draft night and what I want to see from our club, I’m glad we are getting Dean and ISON and I’m still in a bit of disbelief where they will be supposedly bid on.

Picking good players up in the drafts is hard, so to uncover quality small forwards for example, you need to bring in multiple players, to uncover quality and I feel we haven’t done this.

So that’s all I really want to see, outside of Dean and ISON, whether it’s a pick before ISON or a pick after, I want us to keep targeting small forwards.

As for a KPF, if we went down that path, I’d be happy too, Morriss and Shanaghan are two players who have gone later in the draft who have shown you can still find good talls in the 2nd round.

Fingers crossed Dean isn’t bid at 3 as per Twomeys phantom