Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I could list dozens of guys who were rated high on BF and slid or weren't drafted.

There's also a ton of guys who don't progress as hoped for. Nature of the business.

I wanted SPS big time. But he just never had the tank.

Yeah I dug SPS too. Thought we had neapolitan, turned out to be just vanilla.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.

TBF, I think the trade broke him.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Wouldn't West Coast be of most benefit by not bidding on Dean at 3?

We'd clearly trade out 9 and 11 when the bid comes, resulting in Essendon and North then holding 9 and 11.

If West Coast don't bid on Dean and Essendon does, Carlton would be more inclined to hold their original picks. 9 would get absorbed (good for WC) and originally our pick 11 would push out past West Coasts next pick (also good for West Coast)...

Yep and it will prove it’s just a dumb footy club.

 

[GT619]

Hopefully the Carlton recruiting team have a long memory. Have to get WC back for this at some stage.

dw GW doesn't forget, paybacks a bitch

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I’m not sure if it’s the #9, his wiry frame, or even the haircut, but Felix Kneipp (who Cal linked us to) has a bit of that Zac Butters/Jagga vibe in the way he moves.

And that's exactly what we should be excited about. We know we're getting Dean and Ison, but looks like we'll be taking another player in the draft - and after today's news, it looks likely to be toward the back end.

As some have mentioned, it's one of those drafts that there's clear talent at the pointly end, but then evens out a fair bit after that. The trick is for our recruiters to find that diamond - over to Agresta and his band of merry men to earn their pay.

Like the look of this kid though....another lefty as well.

 

[GoBlues!]

It makes teams pay a fair price for their player, or alternatively, allows teams to get the player they value more than the aligned team does, or can afford.

The alternative would be for Father Sons, NGA and Academy players being free.

Can you imagine the bleating?

I see your point Stamos.

I guess I see bidding on academy players early in this draft makes more sense to me to minimise a top team like GCS currency and access to all of their academy players (I think they have five).

I was expecting an early bid on Dean, but was hoping it would be after 2/3 academy players were bidded on first.

 

[Blue By Blood]

And that's exactly what we should be excited about. We know we're getting Dean and Ison, but looks like we'll be taking another player in the draft - and after today's news, it looks likely to be toward the back end.

As some have mentioned, it's one of those drafts that there's clear talent at the pointly end, but then evens out a fair bit after that. The trick is for our recruiters to find that diamond - over to Agresta and his band of merry men to earn their pay.

Like the look of this kid though....another lefty as well.

It's funny how everyone can view it differently. I look at that highlights package and can see he has some pace but never seems to use it. I also see that every disposal he gets is rushed and has no real hurt factor. Handballs routinely miss targets or are to another under immediate pressure. A few kicks inside 50 he tried to be too cute and fluffed it. I've seen worse highlight packages but it's nothing that screams a must pick.

Interesting question for all. If it came down to taking a Kneipp or Rodriguez type late in the draft vs keeping that spot open for Elijah.. what would people do? Because to my eyes Elijah has way more talent and proven talent vs these late options. I know that Elijah is polarising on here but I guess it depends how deep the issues run and whether the club can genuinely see him turning it around and/or if it's an issue that can be managed with club aid. I just find it interesting either way. I'm also in the camp of us looking very wafer thin for KPP depth so I'm intrigued if we will add an SPP in that regard.

 

[Blue By Blood]

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.

Owies isn't that bad.. but to be fair we didn't force you to trade. Your list management team had to agree to it and deem it worthwhile..

Either way I can't blame you for bidding on Dean at 3. This type of draft I can easily see teams at the top valuing the players differently.

 

[ctwenty1]

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.

Pretty sure the deal wasn’t about to fall over if you said no…

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Third best for West Coast, maybe?

They have Ginbey as their premier key defender atm

But they know they can't get him so it's a pointless exercise. Obvious as the nose on your face that this is about ensuring they wipe out any pick we might have before their 13.

I'm sure the shoe will be on the other foot later down the line. Carlton will eventually get the chance to pay them back for this one.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Makes sense why WCE won't bid on Annable. Lions need all the help they can get...

The Starcevich deal & compensation between the clubs, friendly handshake deal, no bid…

 

[NYCFC]

If you know the other team can, and will match, the only reason to bid so early is to make the other team pay.
To be honest, that probably should be how everyone plays this. The annoying thing is that we know that’s not the case.
Are they pissy we took Chesser?
Did we FORCE them to take Owies?

 

[ctwenty1]

The Starcevich deal & compensation between the clubs, friendly handshake deal, no bid…

Annabel gets bid at 5 then - richmond first pick. Hopefully anyway

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

It seems like they rate Dean really highly, in saying that i think they are making us pay up maximum price although they know fully we will definitely match the bid..

I’ve been of the same opinion that possibly loosing Chesser for a pick 41 who they drafted at pick 14, finally got his body right and showing his talent & potential once back up & running, stung a bit…

Could be absolutely nothing to do with it also, Owies is on them they didn’t have to trade him in, the poor year certainly didn’t help either…

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Annabel gets bid at 5 then - richmond first pick. Hopefully anyway

100%

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.

Owies will be alright.

Our forward line went from functioning on a mediocre level with him to complete train wreck without him. We couldn't replace his goals and assists - and didn't have enough to begin with.

 

[ctwenty1]

I’m not sure if it’s the #9, his wiry frame, or even the haircut, but Felix Kneipp (who Cal linked us to) has a bit of that Zac Butters/Jagga vibe in the way he moves.

this got me to look at jagga's highlights again.

Im excited!!

 

[txbyhull]

Excuse the intrusion but have been having a read. If people don’t want us to bid on players that will 100% be matched, would that logic not just say that they should be let through to the rookie draft for free? Where is the line between “petty” and reasonable in your opinions? Would a bid from Richmond at 5 or 6 instead of 3 attract the same ire?

 

[marcmurphy3]

It seems like they rate Dean really highly, in saying that i think they are making us pay up maximum price although they know fully we will definitely match the bid..

I’ve been of the same opinion that possibly loosing Chesser for a pick 41 who they drafted at pick 14, finally got his body right and showing his talent & potential once back up & running, stung a bit…

Could be absolutely nothing to do with it also, Owies is on them they didn’t have to trade him in, the poor year certainly didn’t help either…

Yeah I think its both. Do they rate Dean around top 3-5? No doubt. Would they pick Dean over Duff Tyler in an open draft? Probably not.

Theyre bidding to make us pay up. Let's not kid ourselves. If they really wanted the Dean and Duursma pairing, they could bid on Dean at 1 and have a realistic shot at actually getting him.

It's not a ridiculous bid, but definately at the very upper end of Dean's range, and not great for us.

Overall, still happy with Dean, but it could definately have worked out better.

 

[Jimmae]

I also just ran this if we also got back 46 from the North deal (so 11 for 25, 46 and F2). Would leave us with 41, 47 and 48 as picks at the end of Night 1 which combined is the points equivalent of ~ Pick 31. Maybe we could try and package and move up if someone needs points in this situation. Or we could just shift them into next year for another F2/F3.

If we want to stay in this draft, the only real choice is Essendon if we weren't already trading with them. If we want to move value into 2026 then it's Gold Coast, but they have an in-principle deal with GWS for pick 35 (presumably 30ish at the point they'd use it).

Because he is a gun!!
It’s a bloody blessing !

This just reads as defeatist. We should not be grateful for overpaying, even accounting for the discount. Twice in the one draft, no less.

How dare he improve and become the best KPD in the draft.

That doesn't automatically inflate his value to this extent. The next best KPD - at least the next player that's playing the role in the juniors - is being rated at 24-29.

Should the Eagles take Thredgold at 13?

People were mad for Lukosius. I can recall one vocal forumite hoping we'd trade up for Tsatas. Pretty well every great value slider we couldn't believe got to us over the years slid right off the list shortly thereafter.

I remember not wanting Dow, so consider myself somewhat qualified.

I wanted us to trade down with GC and take Rankine and Smith, and I wanted LDU instead of Dow.

We would have needed more Carlton Respects and Pride meetings, but we'd have had an amazing football team.

Interesting question for all. If it came down to taking a Kneipp or Rodriguez type late in the draft vs keeping that spot open for Elijah.. what would people do?

We can have one alongside Hollands, and by far and away you'd be looking at Rodriguez of those two. You've also got Harry Scott floating in that range as an alternative to Kneipp, but I assume Kneipp is someone we're looking to invite down to train.

Excuse the intrusion but have been having a read. If people don’t want us to bid on players that will 100% be matched, would that logic not just say that they should be let through to the rookie draft for free? Where is the line between “petty” and reasonable in your opinions? Would a bid from Richmond at 5 or 6 instead of 3 attract the same ire?

Bidding on a player you want to draft, instead of bidding on a player to force a series of trades that benefits your want to shuffle down a few picks and pick up at least another first rounder.

If you wind up with 9 out of this, it will be obvious to all and sundry what transpired.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

38 min: Pom tries to explain why WC won't trade pick 13 + 34 to Carlton.

He says WC "can just make their pick in between 9 and 11 by bidding on Harry Dean". The 2 Carlton picks aren't disappearing because WC bid on Dean at 3 as Carlton will on-trade them to another club who will still use them obviously.

I know losing 34 doesn't help them with Williams but that's no different to Ess who need their later picks for Sweid, etc.

He then starts going off on an essendon tangent then immediately switches to richmond then back to essendon and says if they want pick 9 "they just hope pick 2 isn't bid then it comes in". Even though ess are reportedly trading with Carlton.

Is any of this making sense to anyone? I just can't follow it.

It's free content so who really cares but sometimes it really is verbal diarrhea to me.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Excuse the intrusion but have been having a read. If people don’t want us to bid on players that will 100% be matched, would that logic not just say that they should be let through to the rookie draft for free? Where is the line between “petty” and reasonable in your opinions? Would a bid from Richmond at 5 or 6 instead of 3 attract the same ire?

Dean isn't a top 3 talent this year. He just isn't.

Walker next year, I could understand if you guys bid on him with #1..

Dean is within the 6-12 range.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Excuse the intrusion but have been having a read. If people don’t want us to bid on players that will 100% be matched, would that logic not just say that they should be let through to the rookie draft for free? Where is the line between “petty” and reasonable in your opinions? Would a bid from Richmond at 5 or 6 instead of 3 attract the same ire?

Historically if is a player (e.g. Tom Green) is rated 5th they'll end up getting bid on at 10ish. Or Naicos - ranked #1 for years leading up to the draft is bid on at 4.

All of a sudden a guy ranked 7-10 by every draft expert is getting bid on at #3?

It comes across as WC trying to hurt carlton's draft position rather than genuinely believing Dean is the 3rd best player in the draft.

Which is their right. But I hope Carlton serves it back to them at the next opportunity.

 

[ferrisb]

So we are gifting north and Essendon with extra firsts this year to gain one second next year ? Is that actually worth it ? Guess we are the “nice to do deals with club “ and get walked over by the rest so probably is !

If we don't do the trades, those firsts get eaten up by matching Dean anyway and we don't gain the 2nd rounder next year. So, it doesn't give us much, but it gives us something.

In years gone by, there'd be much better deals for picks 9 and 11, but a) the DVI changes have made that much harder, b) this is a dud draft and c) there aren't many clubs that have suitable picks for us to deal with (that aren't already tied up themselves).

 

[Jimmae]

FWIW the WA media are running with 'Eagles will bid on Uwland, haven't ruled out bidding on Dean at 3', as of 10:30 PM Melbourne time.