Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[ferrisb]

Excuse the intrusion but have been having a read. If people don’t want us to bid on players that will 100% be matched, would that logic not just say that they should be let through to the rookie draft for free? Where is the line between “petty” and reasonable in your opinions? Would a bid from Richmond at 5 or 6 instead of 3 attract the same ire?

If this was a completely open draft, I am not convinced Dean would go in the top 3.

So (under that assumption) if he is bid that high, it's (at least partially) because he's tied to Carlton not because of his 'fair value' or WCE's true ranking.

Under this logic, WCE are bidding to at worst screw us, at best keep us honest. So bidding is a little petty if it isn't your genuine ranking.

I'm not convinced Rich would be picking him either if he was an open player...

All in my humble hypothetical opinion. .

 

[Opium]

We had lots of picks to play with during the trade period, yet Austin et al clearly got their forecasts wrong which is hurting us now. We are coming across as desperate for more points in this draft (which may or may not be needed) which makes it challenging in receiving fair value for premium selections. Missing out on a top 20 selection because of the mismanagement is a missed opportunity because we need more quality and have more gaps to fill.

Yep. Spot on.

 

[macky99]

If this was a completely open draft, I am not convinced Dean would go in the top 3.

So (under that assumption) if he is bid that high, it's (at least partially) because he's tied to Carlton not because of his 'fair value' or WCE's true ranking.

Under this logic, WCE are bidding to at worst screw us, at best keep us honest. So bidding is a little petty if it isn't your genuine ranking.

I'm not convinced Rich would be picking him either if he was an open player...

All in my humble hypothetical opinion. .

Absolutely spot on, if West Coast were genuinely going to take Dean so early they should bid at 1 and take Duursma at number 2.

They are bidding on a player knowing full well he is not getting to West Coast, some argue this is the intent, but it also gives clubs in this instance the opportunity to bid early effectively wiping out Carlton's draft hand.

The notion of bidding on a player early is just another way of the rules being manipulated to suit the outcome.

 

[Coona Blues]

Excuse the intrusion, but I believe you started this by trading Owies to us.

Caveat emptor.

His footy was no secret, does your recruiting team not watch AFL?

 

[TrueQldBlue]

Owies isn't that bad.. but to be fair we didn't force you to trade. Your list management team had to agree to it and deem it worthwhile..

Either way I can't blame you for bidding on Dean at 3. This type of draft I can easily see teams at the top valuing the players differently.

But what is the point of bidding on Dean if you know 100% that you won't get that player and that Carlton will 100% definitely take him ????
I don't understand the logic except to hurt and piss off the other team ?

 

[Soapy V]

We had lots of picks to play with during the trade period, yet Austin et al clearly got their forecasts wrong which is hurting us now. We are coming across as desperate for more points in this draft (which may or may not be needed) which makes it challenging in receiving fair value for premium selections. Missing out on a top 20 selection because of the mismanagement is a missed opportunity because we need more quality and have more gaps to fill.

Really?

I read it as we have plans in place for every scenario that may come. IMO that is good planning

Who said we wanted a Top 20 selection? Would be about 30 in a weak draft. We will get the best KPD in the draft

Lot to play out yet and I reckon people are jumping at shadows but if Austin & Co aren't planning for every scenario I would be disappointed. There could still be a surprise to come yet if things fall our way

 

[lukep_86]

 

[Poorman53]

38 min: Pom tries to explain why WC won't trade pick 13 + 34 to Carlton.

He says WC "can just make their pick in between 9 and 11 by bidding on Harry Dean". The 2 Carlton picks aren't disappearing because WC bid on Dean at 3 as Carlton will on-trade them to another club who will still use them obviously.

I know losing 34 doesn't help them with Williams but that's no different to Ess who need their later picks for Sweid, etc.

He then starts going off on an essendon tangent then immediately switches to richmond then back to essendon and says if they want pick 9 "they just hope pick 2 isn't bid then it comes in". Even though ess are reportedly trading with Carlton.

Is any of this making sense to anyone? I just can't follow it.

It's free content so who really cares but sometimes it really is verbal diarrhea to me.

Yeah he's missed the fact that West Coast don't need to trade and let Melbourne or Essendon bid on Dean. In this scenario West Coast's current 13 at least comes in one if not two spots with Carltons picks being absorbed and pushed out.

 

[Soapy V]

Dean isn't a top 3 talent this year. He just isn't.

Walker next year, I could understand if you guys bid on him with #1..

Dean is within the 6-12 range.

Does it matter? How often is the Top 10 correct or in right order? By this time next year he could be No.1

Dean is a F/S, the best KPD in the draft and we have committed to him. Bonus is we will get him regardless. He will likely be a gun for us and fills a vital need.

I don't care what we pay, he is worth it for so many reasons and it won't stop us getting anything else we really need

No matter what we do people always want more

 

[Soapy V]

We will get Dean & Ison
Leaves two spots
If Dean is bid early we will likely trade for more picks with one or two added to next year
If things fall our way we may use another pick especially if a player we rate falls which I reckon is a real chance
If not we have two picks for Rookie or SSP which we can trial some players

This has been a great off season regardless and we have really added some talent and set us up for next year as well

 

[P_Crippy]

I’m not sure if it’s the #9, his wiry frame, or even the haircut, but Felix Kneipp (who Cal linked us to) has a bit of that Zac Butters/Jagga vibe in the way he moves.

At last, a kid i can comment on.
Felix played played all his junior footy with my son at Fitzroy, and from under 11s he's been a running machine ball magnet. Pretty good kick, likes a goal and pretty good overhead for his size.
Pretty sure he missed a chunk of games in Coates league due to back injury. I would love to see him get on an AFL list, only thing against him is that he was a mad Collingwood supporter

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

At last, a kid i can comment on.
Felix played played all his junior footy with my son at Fitzroy, and from under 11s he's been a running machine ball magnet. Pretty good kick, likes a goal and pretty good overhead for his size.
Pretty sure he missed a chunk of games in Coates league due to back injury. I would love to see him get on an AFL list, only thing against him is that he was a mad Collingwood supporter

Thanks for the info!

But in true BigFooty spirit, my five minutes of highlight-watching clearly makes me more of an expert than you, even though you’ve been watching him weekly since he was 11!

Also .. I had no idea Fitzroy was in the cannons zone!

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

FWIW the WA media are running with 'Eagles will bid on Uwland, haven't ruled out bidding on Dean at 3', as of 10:30 PM Melbourne time.

It’s going to happen.

 

[Revenant1995]

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

And that's exactly what we should be excited about. We know we're getting Dean and Ison, but looks like we'll be taking another player in the draft - and after today's news, it looks likely to be toward the back end.

As some have mentioned, it's one of those drafts that there's clear talent at the pointly end, but then evens out a fair bit after that. The trick is for our recruiters to find that diamond - over to Agresta and his band of merry men to earn their pay.

Like the look of this kid though....another lefty as well.

This is the pragmatic lens we should be using.

Instead of cursing that we had to use the Charlie/TDK return, we should recognise the upside: we’re landing the best KPD in the pool (something impossible at pick 9 in any other draft) and a powerful, taller mid with a sweet left foot who surged into first-round territory after just three games.

The rules shifted, but so have we. We’ve removed negative influences and bloated salaries, brought in promising youth and ready-made players who’ll add unpredictability to a forward line that desperately needed it, and (perhaps best of all) opened up huge cap space to secure key signings and add major pieces without the tired “cap too tight” narrative.

Get on board, lads.

 

[Soapy V]

This is the pragmatic lens we should be using.

Instead of cursing that we had to use the Charlie/TDK return, we should recognise the upside: we’re landing the best KPD in the pool (something impossible at pick 9 in any other draft) and a powerful, taller mid with a sweet left foot who surged into first-round territory after just three games.

The rules shifted, but so have we. We’ve removed negative influences and bloated salaries, brought in promising youth and ready-made players who’ll add unpredictability to a forward line that desperately needed it, and (perhaps best of all) opened up huge cap space to secure key signings and add major pieces without the tired “cap too tight” narrative.

Get on board, lads.

100% CORRECT

 

[Gointocarlton]

This is the pragmatic lens we should be using.

Instead of cursing that we had to use the Charlie/TDK return, we should recognise the upside: we’re landing the best KPD in the pool (something impossible at pick 9 in any other draft) and a powerful, taller mid with a sweet left foot who surged into first-round territory after just three games.

The rules shifted, but so have we. We’ve removed negative influences and bloated salaries, brought in promising youth and ready-made players who’ll add unpredictability to a forward line that desperately needed it, and (perhaps best of all) opened up huge cap space to secure key signings and add major pieces without the tired “cap too tight” narrative.

Get on board, lads.

 

[Earls Smother]

If this was a completely open draft, I am not convinced Dean would go in the top 3.

So (under that assumption) if he is bid that high, it's (at least partially) because he's tied to Carlton not because of his 'fair value' or WCE's true ranking.

Under this logic, WCE are bidding to at worst screw us, at best keep us honest. So bidding is a little petty if it isn't your genuine ranking.

I'm not convinced Rich would be picking him either if he was an open player...

All in my humble hypothetical opinion. .

WCE are entitled to factor in needs when it comes to who they rate where. We've seen what happens with North when all you do is draft mids with high picks.

Their backline talls were struggling when McGovern had to retire. If any club were relying on Ginbey (not his true position), Bazzo (no good) and Sandy Brock (SSP pick after no games at GC in 3 years), then they would be seriously looking at Dean.

It makes perfect sense that they rate him where they do and bid accordingly. That is the system working as it should.

 

[DZ4]

Really?

I read it as we have plans in place for every scenario that may come. IMO that is good planning

Who said we wanted a Top 20 selection? Would be about 30 in a weak draft. We will get the best KPD in the draft

Lot to play out yet and I reckon people are jumping at shadows but if Austin & Co aren't planning for every scenario I would be disappointed. There could still be a surprise to come yet if things fall our way

The surprise is WCE bidding at 3 and throwing our plans out of order.

I don’t think that was a real consideration 4 weeks ago, because he’s not a top 3 prospect in this draft. And again that’s not to say we aren’t lucky to have him and he won’t be very good. I think we have a gem

 

[P_Crippy]

Thanks for the info!

But in true BigFooty spirit, my five minutes of highlight-watching clearly makes me more of an expert than you, even though you’ve been watching him weekly since he was 11!

Also .. I had no idea Fitzroy was in the cannons zone!

I'm not sure how the zoning works, a couple of the other boys in at Fitzroy played at Northern Knights. Possibly based on where they live perhaps?
Another thing about Felix is that even as a junior he did a lot of off-season stuff to improve himself, so very professional attitude even from junior days.

 

[Milshouse]

Bids coming earlier then expected. Makes sense why we've gone the route of amassing points.

I wonder if we give Sydney back as much as we did in the Curnow trade if we knew this would be the scenario? Its kind of hamstrung us.

Pick 21 woulda been handy, but I think that was the sticking point for the trade, no what cha mean though

 

[Soapy V]

The surprise is WCE bidding at 3 and throwing our plans out of order.

I don’t think that was a real consideration 4 weeks ago, because he’s not a top 3 prospect in this draft. And again that’s not to say we aren’t lucky to have him and he won’t be very good. I think we have a gem

It is but we have moved to cover it as best we can. What more could we have done?

 

[Flaggers22]

Of the players Twomey linked us to with our last pick, I like Fred Rodriguez the most. Partially because his name is Fred, but also because I think his footskills are pretty neat and I think we could use more of that on our list. I don't think Fred has the athletic traits to become an elite mid, but I think he could become a pretty handy player on a wing or at half back (basically any position where he has time and space to open the ground up with his kicking).

 

[Blue__Balls]

But what is the point of bidding on Dean if you know 100% that you won't get that player and that Carlton will 100% definitely take him ????
I don't understand the logic except to hurt and piss off the other team ?

Please think this through....

Because if that was the mindset all father/son and academy players would be free rookie selections for their linked clubs.

The system works on the basis that a club with a father/son or academy player receives a slight points discount and the ability to match any bid they like using some combination of later picks. That club has complete control not over where the bid comes, but on how early a bid they're prepared to match.

If WC bid, it's because a) they'd be happy to walk away with Dean at Pick 3 if Carlton elect not to match, or b) they're confident that a bid at 3 is something Carlton are prepared to match. In either scenario - it's a reflection of Dean's value. Either they like him at 3, or we like him at 3 minus 10% paid for using a few picks in the 20s...

 

[Soapy V]

This is the pragmatic lens we should be using.

Instead of cursing that we had to use the Charlie/TDK return, we should recognise the upside: we’re landing the best KPD in the pool (something impossible at pick 9 in any other draft) and a powerful, taller mid with a sweet left foot who surged into first-round territory after just three games.

The rules shifted, but so have we. We’ve removed negative influences and bloated salaries, brought in promising youth and ready-made players who’ll add unpredictability to a forward line that desperately needed it, and (perhaps best of all) opened up huge cap space to secure key signings and add major pieces without the tired “cap too tight” narrative.

Get on board, lads.

What we have added this off season

B: ........ Phillips? .........
HB: Florent Dean .........
C: Chesser Ison ..........
HF: Ainsworth ......... Murray?
F: Hayward ......... ...........
Foll: Reidy Jagga Walker (picks)

Plus massive development improvement
New coaches
Boak

Plus stocked up for draft 2026 with SC room