Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue__Balls]

Other clubs have navigated this fine over the last 10 years. Could we have pushed Sydney for another 2026 first rather than a pick this year? Could we have sacrificed the 2027 first to set ourselves up better in 2025? Could we have been more friendly in the Chesser deal? Obviously the DVI has changed but the overall strategy remains the same.

Going in with 9+11 for a prospect rated around 6-10 just seems amateur.

Going in with 9+11 for a prospect rated ~6 and another prospect rated ~20-30, on the other hand...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

They are good at this game, aren't they?

If you want to continue dismissing the clear indications that Dean is rated extremely highly at club land, you're more than welcome to. I just don't see the purpose in doing so.

WCE is about to bid on him at 3 despite other highly rated club tied prospects right in the mix, Twomey has said if he slips through to Richmond he'll be the first bid they place too, you've got figures like Canoli from Brisbane saying Uwland and Dean would be their top 2 in the draft as things stand... Imo it's just denying a clear reality at this point.

As I've said before, I have Dean at 6 in my rankings. But it's clear many clubs have him in the very top echelon of this draft.

 

[Coona Blues]

Well the Lions team certainly didn't sound shy on Dean's talents on Gettable just then. Basically said they'd have Zeke Uwland and Harry in the pick 1 conversation putting aside their links to Annable.

…and the Lion’s recruiter wouldn't want to take the opportunity to promote other bids ahead of Annable would he. All with a grain of salt. Harry is a great prospect, but it has been a sport to promote him. Let’s talk about Ison being up soon with their interviews among the established first round invitees. Promotion, promotion, but yeah we have a persecution complex on here.

 

[Stamos]

Going in with 9+11 for a prospect rated ~6 and another prospect rated ~20-30, on the other hand...

And a good F2...

 

[Sector 7G]

We should trade 9and 54 for 13 and 39 with WC on the basis they don't bid for Dean and bid on GC/Lions players. Much better deal than improving *'s hand

 

[marcmurphy3]

Clubs veeeery rarely bid at 1 on a player linked to another club - just down to the "vibe" of having the "best" kid in the draft, and making sure that player gets the attention and perks that come with that tag.

Also sounds like they rate Uwland ahead of Dean and will call his name at Pick 2.

Is there some strategy involved? Sure. But once again - if they're bidding at 3 it's because they're either perfectly happy to get Dean if we walk away, or they're 100% confident that a bid at Pick 3 is one we're willing to match. In either scenario - that supports Pick 3 as his market value this year.

If they didn't want him, and they didn't think we'd match, then they wouldn't be bidding, simple as that. If either of those are reversed though, then it's a fair bid.

I think the point was that if they bid with 1, they might actually get Dean.

 

[gbatman]

We probably aren't interested this year but I wonder what interest we have when it comes to ruckmen. Looking at Brisbane's success with Oscar McInerney

46

Oscar Mcinerney

Age

31

Ht

205cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.1

2star

K

4.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

CL

1.4

4star

HO

14.3

5star

D

6.9

1star

K

4.1

2star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

1.9

4star

HO

16.4

5star

D

7.6

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.6

3star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

11.2

5star

, a 206cm giant with massive long arms who could take the odd mark and was competitive in the air.

I'd love to have a tap dominant ruckman. I think it would go a long way to covering up our issue with leg speed and our weak ability to apply pressure at stoppages if we could control where the ball is going at stoppages.

On the flip side, perhaps bigger, tap dominant rucks could be limited in the game with the rule changes and the potential for there to be less stoppages. You definitely need a ruck you can kick long up the line to.

The other question will be how long are we going to be content with Reidy and Pittonet supported by O'Keeffe and key position players? How long will this remain a good thing for us if at all? Looks as if O'Keeffe is considered a forward first and ruck second. So that is 2 genuine rucks on the list.

I can see why clubs are hesitant to select young rucks, they clog your list, they sit on a list for 3-4 years before they might be able to play AFL. I just wonder if a player with the physical profile comes up with a later pick, would we consider it?

 

[Coona Blues]

If you want to continue dismissing the clear indications that Dean is rated extremely highly at club land, you're more than welcome to. I just don't see the purpose in doing so.

WCE is about to bid on him at 3 despite other highly rated club tied prospects right in the mix, Twomey has said if he slips through to Richmond he'll be the first bid they place too, you've got figures like Canoli from Brisbane saying Uwland and Dean would be their top 2 in the draft as things stand... Imo it's just denying a clear reality at this point.

As I've said before, I have Dean at 6 in my rankings. But it's clear many clubs have him in the very top echelon of this draft.

6 in your rankings is about right. I don’t get why you are so dogmatic at having him taken as high a possible. Historically father / sons have had a bit of discount, the reverse is the case here.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

…and the Lion’s recruited wouldn’t want to take the opportunity to promote other bids ahead of Annable would he. All with a grain of salt. Harry is a great prospect, but it has been a sport to promote him. Let’s talk about Ison being up soon with their interviews among the established first round invitees. Promotion, promotion, but yeah we have a persecution complex on here.

I struggle to believe someone as generally level headed as you Coona would genuinely believe any list team would go on a day before the draft on a show like Gettable thinking that what they say is going to make a scrap of difference to WCE or Richmond's bidding plans. The Lions wouldn't care one bit.

But putting the Dean and Ison stuff aside (as I know you and I and others have had them ranked very far apart over the year)... Our fan base absolutely has a persecution complex.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Going in with 9+11 for a prospect rated ~6 and another prospect rated ~20-30, on the other hand...

And picking up North's future second for potentially another pick around 25 in the 2026 draft

 

[Opium]

Bids coming earlier then expected. Makes sense why we've gone the route of amassing points.

I wonder if we give Sydney back as much as we did in the Curnow trade if we knew this would be the scenario? Its kind of hamstrung us.

Would've preferred to keep pick 21 than Sydney's 2027 1st giving the heavily compromised draft.

 

[SurreyBlue]

The best move for us is to sit with our current picks. We just can’t get enough points to get any value in this years draft and will keep digging holes for ourselves by trying. Other teams are better at this than us and we have muffed it up.

If WC bid at 3, our picks 10&12 at time of bid will return a pick 30. Once other bids come for GC, etc. that will move down to 27 or so. Should be enough to bid for Ison with some extra, if needed from our others.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Would've preferred to keep pick 21 than Sydney's 2027 1st giving the heavily compromised draft.

Until the kid we take at 21 turns out to be ordinary and then in 2027 you're bemoaning the lack of an extra first rounder we could have had

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

6 in your rankings is about right. I don’t get why you are so dogmatic at having him taken as high a possible. Historically father / sons have had a bit of discount, the reverse is the case here.

On pure talent it seems somewhere between 6 & 10 seems the consensus - the fact he is the only top end key defender and the first 8 picks in the draft are held by 4 clubs with consecutive pairs means he slides up because they can take a mid AND then the theoretical KPD (despite having no chance of getting him)

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

6 in your rankings is about right. I don’t get why you are so dogmatic at having him taken as high a possible. Historically father / sons have had a bit of discount, the reverse is the case here.

I don't want Dean taken as high as possible... Hell, I'd send him out to get caught drink driving like Charlie was on draft eve if I had a choice in the matter. I just can't stand the incessant complaints from others (not yourself) that everything and everyone is against us and that's the only reason a bid is set to come at 3. It's painfully obvious at this stage that he's just very highly rated by opposition clubs.

End of the day, I'm stoked we're getting a gun KPD and imo a mid/fwd of similar ilk. Paying the premium sucks but I'm certainly not going to cry about it. We're getting two fantastic prospects in positions of need right as we're looking to refresh our list.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Its a competition

Any way to disrupt your opponents or stuff up their plans

Need more of this going forward

Clubs have been way too nice to each other for faaaaaaar too long

Yeah of course, and we're so lucky that we're the guinea pigs in this motive...

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

The best move for us is to sit with our current picks. We just can’t get enough points to get any value in this years draft and will keep digging holes for ourselves by trying. Other teams are better at this than us and we have muffed it up.

If WC bid at 3, our picks 10&12 at time of bid will return a pick 30. Once other bids come for GC, etc. that will move down to 27 or so. Should be enough to bid for Ison with some extra, if needed from our others.

Wouldn't we then end up with the Dean and Ison but miss North's future second?

 

[Stamos]

The best move for us is to sit with our current picks. We just can’t get enough points to get any value in this years draft and will keep digging holes for ourselves by trying. Other teams are better at this than us and we have muffed it up.

If WC bid at 3, our picks 10&12 at time of bid will return a pick 30. Once other bids come for GC, etc. that will move down to 27 or so. Should be enough to bid for Ison with some extra, if needed from our others.

So give up North's F2 just because?

With the trades, we'd be a chance to add more futures too.

 

[SurreyBlue]

If you want to continue dismissing the clear indications that Dean is rated extremely highly at club land, you're more than welcome to. I just don't see the purpose in doing so.

WCE is about to bid on him at 3 despite other highly rated club tied prospects right in the mix, Twomey has said if he slips through to Richmond he'll be the first bid they place too, you've got figures like Canoli from Brisbane saying Uwland and Dean would be their top 2 in the draft as things stand... Imo it's just denying a clear reality at this point.

As I've said before, I have Dean at 6 in my rankings. But it's clear many clubs have him in the very top echelon of this draft.

Not dismissing anything except other teams know how to play the system, whereas we, well are ‘good guys’ who continuously get taken for a ride. No matter what situation we find ourselves in.

As an example, trading a gun forward with a 4 year contract through upgrading our 2nd round picks and now drafting FS and Academies. We aren’t very good at this and 30 years of playing this game is full of examples. You can ignore, if you prefer as well.

 

[macky99]

If you want to continue dismissing the clear indications that Dean is rated extremely highly at club land, you're more than welcome to. I just don't see the purpose in doing so.

WCE is about to bid on him at 3 despite other highly rated club tied prospects right in the mix, Twomey has said if he slips through to Richmond he'll be the first bid they place too, you've got figures like Canoli from Brisbane saying Uwland and Dean would be their top 2 in the draft as things stand... Imo it's just denying a clear reality at this point.

As I've said before, I have Dean at 6 in my rankings. But it's clear many clubs have him in the very top echelon of this draft.

We don't really know for certain if they really do rate him at 3 or they being purely strategic, as if they wanted him badly enough they could take him at 1 and still get the Durrsma at 2 whom they rate at 1.
Dean right now is probably some years away from being a key defender at Afl level, probably going to be a 3rd defender for a few years.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Not dismissing anything except other teams know how to play the system, whereas we, well are ‘good guys’ who continuously get taken for a ride. No matter what situation we find ourselves in.

As an example, trading a gun forward with a 4 year contract through upgrading our 2nd round picks and now drafting FS and Academies. We aren’t very good at this and 30 years of playing this game is full of examples. You can ignore, if you prefer as well.

Trading the gun forward was entirely our decision and on our terms re the draft picks we'd be getting in return. There was no getting taken for a ride in that situation at all.

 

[JJBagger]

We don't really know for certain if they really do rate him at 3 or they being purely strategic, as if they wanted him badly enough they could take him at 1 and still get the Durrsma at 2 whom they rate at 1.
Dean right now is probably some years away from being a key defender at Afl level, probably going to be a 3rd defender for a few years.

Cal has said before that the Dean bid wouldn’t get past Richmond. So if he didn’t get bid on at 3, he would be bid on in the 3 or 4 picks after. It’s not a stretch bidding on him at pick 3

 

[gbatman]

I could see the logic if we kept nine and 11 and it moved them up the order once those picks were wiped out …but this is the game obviously.

We will have long memories.

Yep, West Coast either get Dean which they would love because he is a top player and a huge area of need for them or they wipe out picks for us, elevating their pick 13.

We don't like it but it is fair game.

I am curious to see how our pick swap may work out.

I think it will be 9 for 21, 27 and 30. Then Pick 11 for 25 and a future 2nd. We may have to throw 43 in there but hopefully not.

So hopefully our draft hand of 21, 25, 27, 30, 43* is strong enough to land the players we want.

I think 43 could be off loaded for another club's future 3rd. I think we will be looking for extra picks for next season to go with our open salary cap and plenty of out of contract players. Next year we have two future firsts. We will probably try and split them for Walker if we can? It would be good to add North's future second and another club's future 3rd seeing as we currently have no picks in the 2nd or third round of the 2026 draft.

I think we will be up to our necks in pick trading for next year. We could even try to offload pick 54 for a future 4th rounder as well. Small currency could be valuable if the draft is good and our list changes are high.

 

[Poorman53]

Not dismissing anything except other teams know how to play the system, whereas we, well are ‘good guys’ who continuously get taken for a ride. No matter what situation we find ourselves in.

As an example, trading a gun forward with a 4 year contract through upgrading our 2nd round picks and now drafting FS and Academies. We aren’t very good at this and 30 years of playing this game is full of examples. You can ignore, if you prefer as well.

West Coast are showing with their said bid on Dean they actually don't know how to work the system. It works against them.

 

[SurreyBlue]

So give up North's F2 just because?

With the trades, we'd be a chance to add more futures too.

Sorry - The point is, we moved our 2nd round off with the Charlie trade and now are trying to get another in.
We need to be tougher.