List Mgmt. Draft thread - 2025 (remaining picks: 29, 34)

[Keys]

Live draft hand
R1: 1 (Duursma), 4 (CDT), 19 (Lindsay)
R2: 29, 34
RD: 1

Draft picks pre-draft
R1: 1, 2, 13
R2: 34, 41
RD: 1

List spots available
Main list: 2 (includes Duursma, CDT, Lindsay)
Cat A Rookie list: 1 (expecting Robertson, Macrae and Schoenberg to join as SSP signings)
Cat B Rookie list: 1

Draft order

Spoiler

Draft prospect video highlights (thanks to noobermensch)

Rookie Me Central 2025 Draft Guide

2025 AFL Draft Guide

online.fliphtml5.com

Matthew Clarke on Gettable 17/11

Spoiler

Cal Twomey’s Phantom Draft

Spoiler

 

[Keys]

Is that including Murray being bid on at pick 19 and Addinsall being bid on at pick 20 ? It should be

2232 pts for Uwland
1615 pts for Paterson
717 pts for Murray

Which is 4544 points . After pick 48 deal they have 3875 points .

Suns have a draft simulator. Not sure how reliable this info is but apparently, loading Twomey phantom draft order and bidding and Suns matching both Murray and Addinsall, Suns would be only 12 points in deficit. All those picks shifting up during matching bids much generate more points than I thought.

So who knows, Suns may still match Addinsall.

No idea how the emulator would work as post Uwland and Pattersom all you have left is pick 48 and 50 odd? Your picks cant slide down if you no longer have them after pick 2

Just for fun, I have just did simulation only for Uwland with bid coming at pick 2.

My understanding is that, every time the pick is used for match all remaining picks move up by 1. Leftover from last pick used to match generates a new pick based on points leftover. Completely used picks move to the end of draft (not sure about that).

I include picks 48 and 49 (trades prepared for draft night). I did not include pick 35 trade with GWS, just saw it.

I may be completely wrong, haha. Here we go. I didn't double check numbers.

3 picks would be used to match Uwland - 15 18 24. Leftover from 22 (originally 24) will generate pick 37.

Remaining picks (generated from original ones) after Uwland match (not including added picks to the end of draft, most probably don't matter).
28 -> 25 590
29 -> 26 561
36 -> 33 382
37 297
48 -> 45 150
49 -> 46 134
52 -> 49 86

In general, picks would be moving 3 positions up. In total extra 463 points will be generated.

Starting with 3773 points (plus 48, 49), matching Uwland with 2232 points, Suns will be left with 2200 points before Patterson bid. Let's say Patterson bids comes at pick 5, to match it Suns needs 1615 points. Still 585 points left for next bid on Murray (extra points generated by matching Patterson bid not included).

Obviously, matching Patterson will generate again extra points. If Dean bid comes before Patterson, agains some picks move up generating extra points. Then there is an Annable bid, and a bid on Swans academy kid before Murray too in Twomey Phantom draft.

Considering we will now also probably get pick 35 from GWS I am now convinced that we will match all 5 (unless my calculations are completely wrong and based on wrong assumptions).

Only one day to find out.

What Jirik is saying is right

Essentially the points value Gold Coast hold isn’t static - as bids come in and are matched, the picks shift and their value changes accordingly. With so many picks in the late teens and twenties, those picks Gold Coast hold come in a fair way after the early bids on Uwland, Dean, Patterson and Annable

My calculations were that the suns would be 112 points short of matching but I think there’s a slight difference in how I’ve taken points value of picks that’s incorrect so it would be lower than 112.

GWS bidding on Kyle also improves the Suns position points wise due to it knocking out a couple of picks before the ones the Suns hold at that point

We can help ourselves by bidding earlier on Patterson as it needs more points at 3 than it does at 5

I expect the Suns can and will match

 

[Jirik13]

15,18 and 24 will be gone
25,26,33 go to Paterson

You then have 37,45,46 and 49 left. A bid on Murray at 19 is 720 points needed. You may have around 1000 points left still? That then leave 250-350 points behind. At that point its not enough to match Addinsall without going into deficit for 2027?

I did only Uwland. For Addinsal, if you would follow Twomey draft you got to include possible Dean match extra points, then extra points during Patterson bid match, Swans match (before Murray) and Murray match.

 

[Lach72]

1-Uwland
2-Patterson

Only if we’re pulling all the levers and not ourselves of course.

3 Annable
4 Dean.

Do it for all of us

 

[Jirik13]

What Jirik is saying is right

Essentially the points value Gold Coast hold isn’t static - as bids come in and are matched, the picks shift and their value changes accordingly. With so many picks in the late teens and twenties, those picks Gold Coast hold come in a fair way after the early bids on Uwland, Dean, Patterson and Annable

My calculations were that the suns would be 112 points short of matching but I think there’s a slight difference in how I’ve taken points value of picks that’s incorrect so it would be lower than 112.

GWS bidding on Kyle also improves the Suns position points wise due to it knocking out a couple of picks before the ones the Suns hold at that point

We can help ourselves by bidding earlier on Patterson as it needs more points at 3 than it does at 5

I expect the Suns can and will match

I agree now. Getting extra picks 35, 48, 49 would indicate Suns will match all 5 unless some crazy things will happen.

Just as interest, apparently, Sun max deficit is 662 points.

 

[eaglevision]

I imagine it's to improve the WAFL side more than anything else, since the only way we we can really bring in decent players is to have them on our rookie list.

You’d think so, but we’re already adding Dev and McCrae and the big picture here is the Eagles, not the Beagles.

Pick #1 in the rookie draft vs Schoenberg is a no brainer for me. Even if we’re not going best available at least have the best project tall developing.

 

[bzparkes]

You’d think so, but we’re already adding Dev and McCrae and the big picture here is the Eagles, not the Beagles.

Pick #1 in the rookie draft vs Schoenberg is a no brainer for me. Even if we’re not going best available at least have the best project tall developing.

I'm guessing they don't rate anyone that late.

Pyke also said it was a big focus to improve the WAFL side so players can develop better.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

At this point if we only draft 3 non-tied players, we have just enough spots to add all 4 of our NGA/FS as long as no more than 2 are bid on at the draft.
I would rather Walley on the rookie list than one of the delistees.

 

[bzparkes]

At this point if we only draft 3 non-tied players, we have just enough spots to add all 4 of our NGA/FS as long as no more than 2 are bid on at the draft.
I would rather Walley on the rookie list than one of the delistees.

We have a spare Cat B spot he can be directly added to.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

We have a spare Cat B spot he can be directly added to.

Yeah, as I said we currently have enough spots, but that changes if noone bids on Banfield and Evans, and we draft a 4th player. I think we are 50:50 on doing that.
Might also be a chance we choose a player that could be available at 34 (or whatever it becomes) rather than match late 1st round bid on Williams (Swadling or Rodriguez?).

 

[Keys]

Schoenberg will mean we lose pick 1 in the rookie draft assuming we take all our NGAs and Charlie. Poor use of a list spot. Even a project tall would have been better. We’re so fixated on plugging the age gap after years of shit drafting only to fill it up with more list cloggers.

As everyone knows we have 10 overall list spots, three of which will be filled by our R1 picks

Committing to taking Schoenberg as a third DFA reduces available list spots to 4

That could be Banfield and our three NGAs although I think if Evans goes undrafted there’s a good chance we add him as a Cat B but not Walley which would allow us to use pick 1 in the RD

(Assumes that we match Williams or pass and take someone else then add Banfield in the main draft- if we use a 5th main draft pick and are able to add Banfield as a rookie if he gets through then we can’t use a RD pick)

I’m not a big fan of Schoenberg and would prefer we used that spot on a kid or alternatively held it open for a train on spot. Blamires is one example of someone who could be there in the RD we could take instead of Schoenberg

I imagine it's to improve the WAFL side more than anything else, since the only way we we can really bring in decent players is to have them on our rookie list.

Clarke said yesterday we’re taking those guys on the basis they would be competing for senior spots and not just to boost the WAFL although they will help the WAFL side if they aren’t picked for seniors

(Might have been Pyke on Duffield’s show)

Any chance we haven't committed to Schoenberg & McRae and will make them go through their paces at training before making a final decision?
I thought that was the standard process...

Both players have stayed out of the draft so for them to do that they must have been given an assurance we would take them. Would be a dick move by the club to then walk away from that commitment

 

[Godfather32]

We almost have too many midfielders now.

Just not many good ones

 

[Happy Mastenator]

We almost have too many midfielders now.

Meh, a lot of ordinary mids at this point. At the end of next season we should have a much better idea of who is going to make it or not, and we can aggressively cut those that we don't expect to make it.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Schoenberg will mean we lose pick 1 in the rookie draft assuming we take all our NGAs and Charlie. Poor use of a list spot. Even a project tall would have been better. We’re so fixated on plugging the age gap after years of shit drafting only to fill it up with more list cloggers.

Agreed 100 percent but also think we went into the meeting with the AFL telling them this is what we would do with the picks

Essentially we got the picks based on using them on ready made players is the feeling I got . Otherwise I think our draft compensation would have been more then a pick to get Starcevich

 

[Hook461123]

So Suns want to trade completely out of next years draft to take another vanilla ish mid?
Already traded out their 1st to the Blues. Now they want to to trade their 2nd and 3rd to GWS, Crows and Port.
I guess with all the picks they’ve had recently they can afford to miss a draft.

They must have no decent academy kids next year.

 

[Obeanie1]

Schoenberg will mean we lose pick 1 in the rookie draft assuming we take all our NGAs and Charlie. Poor use of a list spot. Even a project tall would have been better. We’re so fixated on plugging the age gap after years of shit drafting only to fill it up with more list cloggers.

Are the NGA kids better than Schoenberg?

Likely not as he has already played 60 odd games.

What's the average games played by rookies?

It looks like we are not overrating our NGAs which we should all be happy about.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I did only Uwland. For Addinsal, if you would follow Twomey draft you got to include possible Dean match extra points, then extra points during Patterson bid match, Swans match (before Murray) and Murray match.

Yeah I did that in my analysis.

It all rests on us really. Does Clarke have courage or is he a coward

Good news for you is he is a coward at the trade and draft table so I do think it could go your way if not more likely too

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

So Suns want to trade completely out of next years draft to take another vanilla ish mid?
Already traded out their 1st to the Blues. Now they want to to trade their 2nd and 3rd to GWS, Crows and Port.
I guess with all the picks they’ve had recently they can afford to miss a draft.

They must have no decent academy kids next year.

They are planning for Humphrey's exit already. He is gone

 

[Hook461123]

They are planning for Humphrey's exit already. He is gone

Maybe but he’s still got 3 years left on his contract doesn’t he?
No reason they don’t just hold him to it again.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Are the NGA kids better than Schoenberg?

Likely not as he has already played 60 odd games.

What's the average games played by rookies?

It looks like we are not overrating our NGAs which we should all be happy about.

If that's our pre requisite we should take him at pick 13 at this rate .

It's more of a who will play for us still in 2028 given its a 3 year window. I think Wes Walley is more likely to be around then Schoenberg

 

[BSD]

Yeah, as I said we currently have enough spots, but that changes if noone bids on Banfield and Evans, and we draft a 4th player. I think we are 50:50 on doing that.
Might also be a chance we choose a player that could be available at 34 (or whatever it becomes) rather than match late 1st round bid on Williams (Swadling or Rodriguez?).

Would you rate F-Rod and Swadling higher than our NGA's.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Maybe but he’s still got 3 years left on his contract doesn’t he?
No reason they don’t just hold him to it again.

I think they have given up though. He is gone already

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Would you rate F-Rod and Swadling higher than our NGA's.

Yes but none are lasting to pick 1 in the rookie draft

 

[Obeanie1]

3 Annable
4 Dean.

Do it for all of us

Any bidding on Williams from Freo early may need dealing with.

Eagles trade a pick in just before Freos and we bid on Whan taking out that early Freo 2nd they might bid on Williams.

 

[FKASC]

Fold the club

 

[Jirik13]

Yeah I did that in my analysis.

It all rests on us really. Does Clarke have courage or is he a coward

Good news for you is he is a coward at the trade and draft table so I do think it could go your way if not more likely too

Bringing extra 35, 48, 49 (extra 528 points) makes a big difference.