Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[ferrisb]

But what is the point of bidding on Dean if you know 100% that you won't get that player and that Carlton will 100% definitely take him ????
I don't understand the logic except to hurt and piss off the other team ?

Clubs have every right to and should be bidding on players where they genuinely rate them. As long as they're not going early just because they have nothing to lose.

For years we cheered on SOS for keeping other teams honest. We shouldn't get pissed off if our players are bid on at reasonable levels.

 

[josephone]

Now go through the list of how many top 10 KPD have played 100 games or more.

OK. Here are the defenders taken in the top 10 from 2014-2023.

Pick 1 - Jacob Weitering
Pick 5 - Mac Andrew
Pick 6 - Denver Grainger-Barrass, Fisher McAsey, Caleb Marchbank
Pick 7 - Hayden Young, Jack Scrimshaw
Pick 8 - Nick Coffield, Griffin Logue
Pick 9 - Darcy Moore, Josh Gibcus
Pick 10 - Zach Reid

Now I might have got one or two wrong there, but that's the list to my eyes.

A couple of high profile busts in there (DGB and McAsey) but other than that it's a pretty good strike rate.

 

[Opium]

But are you now saying 31 and 42 is better than that 3rd first? Like what exactly should we have sent back because Curnow alone is not worth 3 1sts and Hayward (who on his own is worth a 1st).

I disagree that Hayward is worth a first round pick.
Keep in mind we also have up our 2027 second so the difference between the two picks may only be a handful.

 

[Uncle Fester]

i think the pain is we are all annoyed / shaking fists at clouds that picks 9 and 11 seem to be worth Sweet FA. this is annoying, but is what it is.

i think when the dean bid comes we will get a better sense of that they are really worth, teams will try to take advantage of them, but there will be buyers

 

[carlton_99]

I disagree that Hayward is worth a first round pick.
Keep in mind we also have up our 2027 second so the difference between the two picks may only be a handful.

If you expect Carlton to finish bottom 4 in 2027 maybe. I'm expecting better than that.

 

[Opium]

OK. Here are the defenders taken in the top 10 from 2014-2023.

Pick 1 - Jacob Weitering
Pick 5 - Mac Andrew
Pick 6 - Denver Grainger-Barrass, Fisher McAsey, Caleb Marchbank
Pick 7 - Hayden Young, Jack Scrimshaw
Pick 8 - Nick Coffield, Griffin Logue
Pick 9 - Darcy Moore, Josh Gibcus
Pick 10 - Zach Reid

Now I might have got one or two wrong there, but that's the list to my eyes.

A couple of high profile busts in there (DGB and McAsey) but other than that it's a pretty good strike rate.

Only quality KPD that have played 100 games are Weitering, Moore (recruited as a forward and Gibcus.
Rest are either not KPD, already gone or still to early to judge.

 

[ctwenty1]

What's the odds WCE don't bid, we do trades that haven't been mentioned and get a really good player after Ison?

well you are a kind of itk Soap, you tell us

 

[Soapy V]

Okay. To save everyone angst and argument I have done a full analysis of this weeks draft and what we will definitely get.

I have used data, mock drafts, a heap of guessing, hope, a fortune teller and finger crossing

Here it is:

Pick 3 - Harry Dean (KPD - matched bid - who would have guessed)
Pick 20 - Jack Ison (Mid - matched bid - who would have guessed again)
Pick 35 - Archie Ludowyke (KPF)
Pick 48 - Toby Murray (small forward)

We will then pick up Ethan Phillips as SSP as there will be an injury during pre season

Elijah will then be picked up mid season after dominating the VFL for the top of the ladder Carlton side

You can all relax now. Done

 

[Soapy V]

well you are a kind of itk Soap, you tell us

I hassled so many people over trade period I am scared to ask at the moment

 

[Pablito]

Dean at 3, Ison at 22 and Rodriguez at 39.

AFL Draft 2025: 54 picks, bidding drama in ESPN's final, full Phantom Draft

The AFL Draft is almost upon us, and here is ESPN's full, final Phantom Draft. Who goes where? How many trades get done, and where to the bids fall?

www.espn.com.au

Once Cal posts his, they all copy his homework and change it just enough to be unique.

 

[ctwenty1]

I hassled so many people over trade period I am scared to ask at the moment

nice to not be hearing leaks btw

 

[Blue__Balls]

That's a horrible deal for Essendon, would never happen.

Probably won't. Would depend how they rate the top 10, and in particular CDT. Not much tall timber outside him and Dean. On draft index points it's not a great deal, but some later future picks/swaps could offset that.

Just pointing out that WC may have additional plans in motion.

 

[ferrisb]

OK. Here are the defenders taken in the top 10 from 2014-2023.

Pick 1 - Jacob Weitering
Pick 5 - Mac Andrew
Pick 6 - Denver Grainger-Barrass, Fisher McAsey, Caleb Marchbank
Pick 7 - Hayden Young, Jack Scrimshaw
Pick 8 - Nick Coffield, Griffin Logue
Pick 9 - Darcy Moore, Josh Gibcus
Pick 10 - Zach Reid

Now I might have got one or two wrong there, but that's the list to my eyes.

A couple of high profile busts in there (DGB and McAsey) but other than that it's a pretty good strike rate.

I'd take out Young, Coffield and Scrimshaw as they weren't KPPs.

And Moore was considered as much a forward as a defender.

That leaves less than one KPD a year in the top 10 each year. And none higher than pick 5 bar Weitering who was/is an exception.

Admittedly the success rate of those listed is pretty decent.

 

[Stamos]

Okay. To save everyone angst and argument I have done a full analysis of this weeks draft and what we will definitely get.

I have used data, mock drafts, a heap of guessing, hope, a fortune teller and finger crossing

Here it is:

Pick 35 - Archie Ludowyke (KPF)
Pick 48 - Toby Murray (small forward)

Can't see us changing our list structure and taking 4 picks.

 

[Soapy V]

Can't see us changing our list structure and taking 4 picks.

Ummmmm................................................................................it was a joke

 

[Blue and Silver]

Looks like they're preparing for an early Addinsal bid.

Jai Murray.

Think they are letting Addinsal go. Have Coulson who will get interest in the 30's as well

 

[KnaveyBlue]

Would have been nice if Eagles also bid on Patterson and Annable.

The Eagles jumped into bed with Brisbane during the trade period to feather each other's nests with full support from the AFL. There's no way they're messing with Brisbane's academy.

 

[GoBlues!]

Would've preferred to keep pick 21 than Sydney's 2027 1st giving the heavily compromised draft.

How do you compare pick 21 in this years shallow draft which may end up being #26, with a mid to late 27F1 pick?

2027 may be a compromised draft, but it’s two years away and may be a stronger draft and a R1 pick may have greater bargaining power with a team like Essendon with their F/S player Bewick.

The laws of averaging instead of putting all our eggs in this years weakfish draft is a good strategy opium.

 

[Opium]

How do you compare pick 21 in this years shallow draft which may end up being #26, with a mid to late 27F1 pick?

2027 may be a compromised draft, but it’s two years away and may be a stronger draft and a R1 pick may have greater bargaining power with a team like Essendon with their F/S player Bewick.

The laws of averaging instead of putting all our eggs in this years weakfish draft is a good strategy opium.

Likewise Sydneys 2027 first round could easily be in the 30s
We just don't know at this stage.

 

[Blue By Blood]

If you want to continue dismissing the clear indications that Dean is rated extremely highly at club land, you're more than welcome to. I just don't see the purpose in doing so.

WCE is about to bid on him at 3 despite other highly rated club tied prospects right in the mix, Twomey has said if he slips through to Richmond he'll be the first bid they place too, you've got figures like Canoli from Brisbane saying Uwland and Dean would be their top 2 in the draft as things stand... Imo it's just denying a clear reality at this point.

As I've said before, I have Dean at 6 in my rankings. But it's clear many clubs have him in the very top echelon of this draft.

Exactly this.. Twomey has said numerous times that if WC don't bid on Dean then Richmond will.. Dean is a top 5 prospect this year and people should be excited about that more than pissed that other teams also rate him highly. It seems clear that teams see not only his talent but his personality and competitive drive are also rated highly. I think we all wanted him to slip a bit lower so we got a bargain but the reality is we are walking away with the best KPD and the bonus is that is an area of clear need for us.

Jagga, Walker, HOF, Dean, Ison, Lord, Campos over a 2 year period is a pretty sweet draft result if you ask me. 2 potential elite mids, 2 potential elite KPDs and some other handy additions.

 

[Sector 7G]

For all the talk of it being a weak draft if 3 picks at the back of the 20s could secure Shubert, Hibbins- Hargraves and Greeves, it can't be too weak.

 

[Soapy V]

nice to not be hearing leaks btw

True but I feel there isn't much to leak. Listening to LMs this is all up in the air and many don't know what will happen

 

[Stamos]

The draft is a day away. Here’s who your club is set to pick

Here’s our final forecast of how the first 30 picks at this week’s AFL draft will play out.

www.theage.com.au

 

[katmanblue]

Does it matter? How often is the Top 10 correct or in right order? By this time next year he could be No.1

Dean is a F/S, the best KPD in the draft and we have committed to him. Bonus is we will get him regardless. He will likely be a gun for us and fills a vital need.

I don't care what we pay, he is worth it for so many reasons and it won't stop us getting anything else we really need

No matter what we do people always want more

I can agree with that and at the same time be annoyed at WC for the bullshit bid.

It's just frustration at the situation.

Can't blame the club for that.

I just hope that when the shoe is on the other foot, we really **** WC and don't squirm out of making them pay.

 

[carlton_99]

Likewise Sydneys 2027 first round could easily be in the 40s.
We just don't know at this stage.

The chances that pick will be in the 40s would be next to 0.