Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Jimmae]

Has there been further chats about on trading 27 and 30? I’d like to see us trade 27 with WCE for 34 and 41, then trade 30 with pies for 39 and their F2. I think that’s better for us then the pick in the 40’s

What is the thought process here?

Ignore them, they'll keep on trucking with the absurdly one-sided trades regardless.

They won't be trying to figure out exactly how much that worsens your ability to match bids as those two picks slide in, they'll just be looking at number higher on the pick calculator.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

10 F/S, academy and free agency compensation picks.

This year there is 4 FA compensation picks

Allen, De Koning, Silvagni, Draper

1 AFL assistance pick

West Coast

1 F/S

Dean

At least 3 Academy picks

Annable, Uwland, Patterson

With a long list of potential Academy kids who could be bid on.

10 isn't crazy

It’s interesting. Do they give extra compensation picks for uncontracted players going to Tassie?
Do all Tassie kids just go straight to Tasmania? Considering it looks like they have an unusually strong group that might take a few more out of the pool.

 

[Matty411]

The thing I find weird is why west coast would want to bid on Dean. If a bid comes late enough that we would use 9 and let 11 slide back it would bring their pick 13 in 2 spots. But I guess they must believe we won’t hold onto those picks no matter what.

It seems strange but probably only because the noise was that he came from a mid first to top ten the past month. Recent changes suggest that he was held in higher regard by some clubs than what was reported.

Either that or you can choose to believe its one big anti-Blues conspiracy and be angry that Dean will cop an early bid.

Out of our control though so best thing to do is to sit back and enjoy drafting Dean and watching him play for 10+ years.

 

[txbyhull]

The thing I find weird is why west coast would want to bid on Dean. If a bid comes late enough that we would use 9 and let 11 slide back it would bring their pick 13 in 2 spots. But I guess they must believe we won’t hold onto those picks no matter what.

1. We probably rate him and have grand total zero good young KPD. I rate our stocks more than most but they're in the mid age range and largely B graders (Edwards and Young)
2. It's likely worth more to us to wipe out picks in the 20s having assumed we won't be getting anyone of real value at 13 regardless of if 9 and 11 are in or out of the order.
3. Off chance you trade us 9 which I doubt, and frankly would rather not do
4. Anti-Carlton conspiracy if thats more your mojo

 

[Bletch]

Ran a draft on Pommy's simulator, using all of the trades that CT mentions.

Stuck to CT's order until the bid on Addinsall at 19, where I gave Carlton the opportunity to give up pick 38 to allow GC to match the bid. That gave us GC's 2027 Round 2 pick in return.

Still had plenty of points to match Ison at 24 (Geelong's pick, as per CT).

Later on, Sydney and Essendon got into similar trouble with bids on King and Sweid. This gave us further opportunity to trade, bringing in a 2026 3rd round (tied to Collingwood) and 2026 4th round pick (Ess).

At 53, I then gave us BOB, with a pass on our last.

So - Dean, Ison, Oudshoorn-Bennier and four future picks. Not a bad draft haul!

Is it realistic. Yes. Sorta. I only had those 3 sides trading with us, when in reality, there's a bunch of sides with spare late picks (40+) who would be willing to trade for a low future pick. The real point of the exercise though showed me that the proposed trades with Essington and Norf will not only allow us to get Dean and Ison, but give us the flexibility for further trades and pick(s). It's turned me around a bit on these trades.

If Pommy is listening. Love your work! If you're enhancing the tool further, a some requests: (1) the ability to "save" multiple phantoms (and import others); (2) Something that shows details of pick trades made; (3) a "generate sharable output" button.

 

[txbyhull]

Ignore them, they'll keep on trucking with the absurdly one-sided trades regardless.

They won't be trying to figure out exactly how much that worsens your ability to match bids as those two picks slide in, they'll just be looking at number higher on the pick calculator.

I don't blame them for not doing research, our list build is awfully uninspiring

 

[Jimmae]

If West Coast bid on the Suns and/or Lions academy players first at pick 2/3 does that affect what we pay for Dean?

For say pick 4 or 5? In points? Yes. In terms of trade decisions? Not enormously, no as we still need to offload both early picks and we wouldn't be able to jump ahead of a bid, we'd just have a better pick coming back or a later pick not knocked out.

But the expected behaviour is not to have a run on of 3 bids right near the start of the draft, so you would think they'd make their live selection at that point and leave it to Richmond, so the bid might slide down to 7 or 8, which changes things a lot.

 

[Jimmae]

It’s interesting. Do they give extra compensation picks for uncontracted players going to Tassie?
Do all Tassie kids just go straight to Tasmania? Considering it looks like they have an unusually strong group that might take a few more out of the pool.

Uncontracted players acquired by Tassie incur compensation, it's a mechanism that extends beyond normal FA compensation.

Tassie will have an academy, and will also be an option for father/son candidates from other clubs who originally came up via Tasmania, which I think is determined based on some aspect of residency?

Off chance you trade us 9 which I doubt, and frankly would rather not do

I think if you're going to get 9, it would come via Essendon looking to trade up to, though it may be pick 4 or 5 at that point.

Would be interest to see if there's a mechanism through which we can protest that should, it occur.

Stuck to CT's order until the bid on Addinsall at 19, where I gave Carlton the opportunity to give up pick 38 to allow GC to match the bid. That gave us GC's 2027 Round 2 pick in return.

Still had plenty of points to match Ison at 24 (Geelong's pick, as per CT).

Later on, Sydney and Essendon got into similar trouble with bids on King and Sweid. This gave us further opportunity to trade, bringing in a 2026 3rd round (tied to Collingwood) and 2026 4th round pick (Ess).

At 53, I then gave us BOB, with a pass on our last.

Gold Coast already have an in-principle agreement for GWS pick 35 (by then closer to 30) for their F2, so we'd have to do a lot better than that.

BOB will likely be gone before 40, but we might have a pick before then anyway. If we can't rustle up something for Gold Coast's F2, we're probably looking at a future 3rd for one pick, or moving up the order a little.

 

[DrTrain]

Ignore them, they'll keep on trucking with the absurdly one-sided trades regardless.

They won't be trying to figure out exactly how much that worsens your ability to match bids as those two picks slide in, they'll just be looking at number higher on the pick calculator.

Didn’t realize WCE have bids to match themselves. The points are similar but 27 probably moves in to early 20’s so an earlier pick for WC and an extra 100 points for us. The trade with pies was more about them wanting to get earlier in this draft and would allow us to move more into next year. I don’t think the trades I suggested are purely one sided.

 

[Jimmae]

Didn’t realize WCE have bids to match themselves. The points are similar but 27 probably moves in to early 20’s so an earlier pick for WC and an extra 100 points for us. The trade with pies was more about them wanting to get earlier in this draft and would allow us to move more into next year. I don’t think the trades I suggested are purely one sided.

27 does shift in, but it then starts to move out again from pick 15 onwards, so you'd need to burrow into simulations a bit to see if there's any use.

They'll have had conversations, but it's not going to be in the first 5 phone calls they'd be making on the night.

 

[Bletch]

Gold Coast already have an in-principle agreement for GWS pick 35 (by then closer to 30) for their F2, so we'd have to do a lot better than that.

BOB will likely be gone before 40, but we might have a pick before then anyway. If we can't rustle up something for Gold Coast's F2, we're probably looking at a future 3rd for one pick, or moving up the order a little.

Yep, I factored that trade in, along with the others that CT mentioned - with Adelaide and Port for 48 and 49.

It still leaves them short in matching Addinsall at 19. I can't see why they wouldn't live trade to make up the points if the bid goes that way.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Yep, I factored that trade in, along with the others that CT mentioned - with Adelaide and Port for 48 and 49.

It still leaves them short in matching Addinsall at 19. I can't see why they wouldn't live trade to make up the points if the bid goes that way.

Addinsall (via his management) seems to have been pretty proactive in the media department re: being totally open to playing anywhere.

Could be as simple as GC don't particularly rate him (vs their other options), and/or have told him he'll be pretty deep in their depth chart if they do pick him up and he's told them not to worry about it.

 

[Bluebag13]

So going through Pommy's simulator using the top 30 picks from CT and then using the top 50 rankings from rookie.me to fill out the rest of 30s picks getting to our pick at 40 assuming the * and NM trades happen.

The following list of players according to rookie.me's top 50 rankings would be available.
I've also removed any club tied players:

Talor Byrne
Taj Murray
Riley Onley
Jack Dalton
Fred Rodriguez
Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis


What are peoples thoughts?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

What are peoples thoughts?

Kondogiannis is the biggest name there

 

[Stig O'Hara]

No matter all the posturing of the other clubs/journos & various other word spinners.

We’ve got enough points to get Dean & Ison, no ifs, ands or buts.

Correct??

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

So going through Pommy's simulator using the top 30 picks from CT and then using the top 50 rankings from rookie.me to fill out the rest of 30s picks getting to our pick at 40 assuming the * and NM trades happen.

The following list of players according to rookie.me's top 50 rankings would be available.
I've also removed any club tied players:

Talor Byrne
Taj Murray
Riley Onley
Jack Dalton
Fred Rodriguez
Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis


What are peoples thoughts?

Mikunda or Kondogiannis would be my pick but not sure the club will see it that way

 

[Bletch]

No matter all the posturing of the other clubs/journos & various other word spinners.

We’ve got enough points to get Dean & Ison, no ifs, ands or buts.

Correct??

Within reason.

If WC bid on Dean at pick 1 and Ison at pick 2, then no. But the mooted bids at 3 for Dean and 22 for Ison are fine.

 

[Soapy V]

Soapy's non expert personal opinion and different Phantom Player Rankings (this is one you need to revist in 3 years)

1. Dyson Sharp
2. Zeke Uwland
3. Cooper Duff-Tytler
4. Harry Dean
5. Willem Duursma
6. Dylan Patterson
7. Sam Cumming
8. Sullivan Robey
9. Sam Grlj
10. Xavier Taylor
11. Latrelle Pickett
12. Josh Lindsay
13. Lachy Dovaston
14. Daniel Annable
15. Jacob Farrow
16. Jack Ison
17. Cameron Nairn
18. Aiden Schubert
19. Harley Barker
20. Archie Ludowyke
21. Hunter Holmes
22. Harry Kyle
23. Adam Sweid
24. Jai Murray
25. Beau Addinsall

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Yeah I think its both. Do they rate Dean around top 3-5? No doubt. Would they pick Dean over Duff Tyler in an open draft? Probably not.

Theyre bidding to make us pay up. Let's not kid ourselves. If they really wanted the Dean and Duursma pairing, they could bid on Dean at 1 and have a realistic shot at actually getting him.

It's not a ridiculous bid, but definately at the very upper end of Dean's range, and not great for us.

Overall, still happy with Dean, but it could definately have worked out better.

That’s how I’m seeing it as well, disappointing points wise absolutely no problem paying up for him , it is what it is…

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

So going through Pommy's simulator using the top 30 picks from CT and then using the top 50 rankings from rookie.me to fill out the rest of 30s picks getting to our pick at 40 assuming the * and NM trades happen.

The following list of players according to rookie.me's top 50 rankings would be available.
I've also removed any club tied players:

Talor Byrne
Taj Murray
Riley Onley
Jack Dalton
Fred Rodriguez
Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis


What are peoples thoughts?

Kondogiannis please.

I haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Tom Anastasopoulos, Jimmy Toumpas… or Mitch Georgiades.

On another note, too many Greeks at Port Adelaide.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Kondogiannis please.

I haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Tom Anastasopoulos, Jimmy Toumpas… or Mitch Georgiades.

On another note, too many Greeks at Port Adelaide.

Marcus Krasnadamskis?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Marcus Krasnadamskis?

Not Greek.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

So going through Pommy's simulator using the top 30 picks from CT and then using the top 50 rankings from rookie.me to fill out the rest of 30s picks getting to our pick at 40 assuming the * and NM trades happen.

The following list of players according to rookie.me's top 50 rankings would be available.
I've also removed any club tied players:

Talor Byrne
Taj Murray
Riley Onley
Jack Dalton
Fred Rodriguez
Hugo Mikunda
Max Kondogiannis


What are peoples thoughts?

Rodriguez or Tobyn Murray for mine

 

[Blue and Silver]

Not Greek.

I wish to offer my sincerest apologies to you and your ancestors

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Kondogiannis please.

I haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Tom Anastasopoulos, Jimmy Toumpas… or Mitch Georgiades.

On another note, too many Greeks at Port Adelaide.

I know you're a busy man CD and may not have time in between booking a trip to Turkey for... the good weather...

But could you please land us Kondogiannis this year and Humphrey B Bear next? That would sure up our flanks for a decade or so.