Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Red_man2008]

They can just ask the eagles to bid on Dean and then trade the pick. Which is what I’d suspect they would do

If that happens then we will not trade with Essendon. Simple.

 

[josephone]

Seems the best case scenario now is hoping Geelong don't bid on Ison and we can use our pick (roughly 25) to take Ison or another player. If we take Ison we can package our remaining picks for something better/next year, or we can just take best available in the late 30s.

 

[Jimmae]

Who cares whether we are helping Essendon get pick 2?

I do, because I'd like to light West Coast up for draft tampering. No idea if we'd have grounds, but **** that behaviour.

 

[cfc05]

Not sure.
Why wouldn't we still trade 9&11 to Ess/NM anyway? The extra points are still useful for a better 3rd selection and/or carry forward to next year.
A later bid means we need less points for Dean but we still want to maximise our overall position

Rather pick 14-18 in this draft than points, as we'd have enough for Ison?

 

[marcmurphy3]

I do, because I'd like to light West Coast up for draft tampering. No idea if we'd have grounds, but **** that behaviour.

How are they draft tampering?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Rather pick 14-18 in this draft than points, as we'd have enough for Ison?

Points = picks
We can potentially bundle/trade them

 

[cfc05]

I dont think sliding back (and letting our picks get swallowed/slid back) is a viable option even if WC leave it to the Tigers to bid. Trading 9 and 11 for points makes sense regardless, so those picks arent getting wiped.

That was only ever a decent option if the Dean bid came close to 9 and even then would leave us short for Ison, if we wanted to draft another player first.

Why isn't it a viable option?

If it goes Duursma, Uwland, CDT, Patterson, Annable... all in WC's hands, highest big possible is 6? We get 22 back in that scenario? Admittedly, I think we still pull the trades and get a future second over pick 22.

However, given Richmond noise around Dean is minimal, if Dean isn't bid by tigers and they take Robey/Cumming/Taylor... earliest bid for Dean is now 8/9 by dons.. we get a pick back between 14-18. I would take matching Dean with 9 and 11, and using pick 14 this year...over a future second next year every day! Pick 15 as well... reckon pick 18 maybe as well, obviously there is a point that swings back to future second.

 

[cfc05]

Points = picks
We can potentially bundle/trade them

Picks = a player when you use them to pick a player.

If we got back pick 14, I would use the pick in the draft over trading it.

If it was to be 30, obviously you trade pick 9 and 11 before it happens. It is all a sliding scale and somewhere in between is where you'd rather pick a player than trade for more points this year or next.

My scenario simply says, WC would be better off not bidding as they can only do worse bidding.

 

[Uncle Fester]

the more you look at it, the better the original west coast 13 & 34 or 43 for our 9 with the handshake looks

 

[The Return of the Paf]

All the laughing emoji's are just an attempt to control the mood. It could very well amount to underwhelming list management giving what we've lost. Are we competing next year or do we need a few years, because it's as sure as hell that the club doesn't know.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Why isn't it a viable option?

If it goes Duursma, Uwland, CDT, Patterson, Annable... all in WC's hands, highest big possible is 6? We get 22 back in that scenario? Admittedly, I think we still pull the trades and get a future second over pick 22.

However, given Richmond noise around Dean is minimal, if Dean isn't bid by tigers and they take Robey/Cumming/Taylor... earliest bid for Dean is now 8/9 by dons.. we get a pick back between 14-18. I would take matching Dean with 9 and 11, and using pick 14 this year...over a future second next year every day! Pick 15 as well... reckon pick 18 maybe as well, obviously there is a point that swings back to future second.

Twomey said Dean gets a tigers bid at the latest and hes said it several times. 0 chance he gets to 8-9.

So a slide to pick pick 22 would be best case scenario if we held 9+11 and not the likely scenario. Even if it did transpire 50/50 that pick gets eaten up by an Ison bid.

If that happens we end up with the same players we were going to get by banking points but lose Roos F2. If it doesnt and we can use the pick on a player we will be short on points for Ison.

 

[ctwenty1]

the more you look at it, the better the original west coast 13 & 34 or 43 for our 9 with the handshake looks

why?

 

[The Return of the Paf]

the more you look at it, the better the original west coast 13 & 34 or 43 for our 9 with the handshake looks

Is that a real offer or was it speculated? Frank Spencer stuff if we turned it down.

 

[katmanblue]

They key defender debate is interesting. As a generalisation, they are often shorter than key forwards, with exceptions of course. Here's a list of current and recent key defenders (and yes, some don't/didn't always play traditional key back), most of whom have been All Australians...

195cm and under

Weitering - 195
Sicily - 189
Collins - 194
May - 190
Lever 194
Rance - 194
Wilkie -191
Rampie - 188
McCartin - 194
Battle - 193
J McGovern -190
Mal Michael - 190
Tarrant - 193
Scarlett - 194
S Silvagni - 191
Hurley - 193
Lake - 195
Harley - 193

196cm and over

Moore - 202
Fletcher - 198
Taylor - 198
Andrews - 200
Pearce - 201
And others

There are a number of taller key backs currently, so perhaps the trend is changing. But over the last 20-odd years, many of the best key defenders were 190-195cm.

So were the forwards. Now we're getting forwards that are 205cm. It's a fair advantage in the air.

 

[Sector 7G]

why?

If we wanting to gain points the difference between 3 and 5 is almost 400 points and the pick could get pushed out further. Also it doesn't help *.

 

[katmanblue]

why?

Because they wouldn't have bid on Dean maybe he goes from 3 to 5 or 6. We could still do the Nth deal and get the F2.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

I do, because I'd like to light West Coast up for draft tampering.

They literally worked with the AFL to tamper with the draft a few months back, and they're now set to wipe out a team's early picks with a F/S bid, which is exactly what the AFL want to see.

The only thing coming their way from AFL House is a high-five.

 

[Uncle Fester]

If we wanting to gain points the difference between 3 and 5 is almost 400 points and the pick could get pushed out further. Also it doesn't help *.

Because they wouldn't have bid on Dean maybe he goes from 3 to 5 or 6. We could still do the Nth deal and get the F2.

what they said

it was being talked about last week - not sure by whom.

but if our priorities are

get Dean
get Ison
get the best additional draft pick this year
get something decent for next year

this does it well

Dean dropping from 3 to 5 saves us 600 points - thats pick 21 in itself and if richmond doesnt bid - it gets even better

 

[bluebaggerjuls]

If that happens then we will not trade with Essendon. Simple.

This type of thinking sounds great but in reality all we are doing is just disengaging ourselves

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

just looked back at the 2021 draft - pick 2 - Sam Darcy required 1063 points, Nick Daicos - Pick 4 - 884 -

just wow - they dont need to go harder than they have

EDIT - what they paid back then was about half of what they would need to pay today

2. Western Bulldogs - Sam Darcy (ruck-forward, Oakleigh Chargers/Glen Iris/Scotch College/Vic Metro) [Matched GWS bid using picks 34, 42, 43, 44, 45]

4. Collingwood - Nick Daicos (midfielder, Oakleigh Chargers/Kew Rovers/Vic Metro) [Matched Gold Coast bid using picks 38, 40, 42, 44]

Yeah the 20% discount, huge advantage as well as the old DVI system…

 

[ctwenty1]

what they said

it was being talked about last week - not sure by whom.

but if our priorities are

get Dean
get Ison
get the best additional draft pick this year
get something decent for next year

this does it well

Dean dropping from 3 to 5 saves us 600 points - thats pick 21 in itself and if richmond doesnt bid - it gets even better

That approach doesnt get us into next year

 

[Uncle Fester]

That approach doesnt get us into next year

the north trade is still viable with pick 11 - im thinking 9 to wce, 11 to north, with the added benefit of the dean point saving - i can see us doing it for pick 41 or even a pointless pick - WCEs 4th rounder.... given the value it delivers us

 

[DIG]

I just want to come out of this with Dean, Ison and as much as possible for next year. That’s all I care about.

Navigate tonight as shrewdly and sensibly as possible!

 

[morningbrown]

I do feel a bit flat that everything is so predictable already. That’s what happens when they dedicate such an insane amount of coverage to the draft.

 

[carlton_99]

what they said

it was being talked about last week - not sure by whom.

but if our priorities are

get Dean
get Ison
get the best additional draft pick this year
get something decent for next year

this does it well

Dean dropping from 3 to 5 saves us 600 points - thats pick 21 in itself and if richmond doesnt bid - it gets even better

Why would it be from 3 to 5? If WCE don't bid on Dean and Richmond do with their first it would be 3 to 4 wouldn't it? Because WCE take Duursma, bid on Uwland and then take CDT. Richmond then bid on Dean at 4.