Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Blue__Balls]

From CT:
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1454286...' deal with Carlton,the first time since 2020.
"The Bombers' deal with Carlton will see them land pick No.9 and likely pick 43 in exchange for picks 21, 27 and 30 in a swap that generates more points for the Blues to match bids on Dean and NGA prospect Jack Ison, and see them enter the draft with three top-10 picks for the first time since 2020. "

"North has been busy in recent days after securing pick 11 from Carlton, with the Roos swapping picks 25, 46 and a future second-rounder for 11 and 54. If a bid comes for Dean at No.3 as expected, it would likely spit out the Blues' next pick around No.25. "

I, for one, wish Essendon all the best and hope they're able to replicate their stellar triple-first-rounder haul from 2020.

(And funnily enough...the third of their three top 10 picks in that year was also secured in a trade from Carlton)

 

[BluesForEternity]

Louis Emmett as our surprise late pick draftee? Mini Scotch College gang with Jagga, Cooper, Ison, and him?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

We will get Dean & Ison
Leaves two spots
If Dean is bid early we will likely trade for more picks with one or two added to next year
If things fall our way we may use another pick especially if a player we rate falls which I reckon is a real chance
If not we have two picks for Rookie or SSP which we can trial some players

This has been a great off season regardless and we have really added some talent and set us up for next year as well

If the bids both come early, we should take the 2 and pack up. If we have anything left of value, trade it into the future.

I'd take 2 of Elijah, Paea, Gresham for the last 2 spots, and White in the SSP with HOF out for the year.

If Paea impresses in the preseason, it's a bonus as he can play forward or back.

 

[marcmurphy3]

If the bids both come early, we should take the 2 and pack up. If we have anything left of value, trade it into the future.

I'd take 2 of Elijah, Paea, Gresham for the last 2 spots, and White in the SSP with HOF out for the year.

If Paea impresses in the preseason, it's a bonus as he can play forward or back.

Im the same. Dont see a need to force a 3rd pick. We have enough kids, and SPPs generally have a better hit rate then late draft picks anyway.

 

[ctwenty1]

I should add to this...

After step 8, there's an opportunity for us to trade pick 40 to Essendon, as it's probable that they won't have enough points for Sweid (assuming they choose to match). Won't be for much, but any future pick would be welcome.

I would welcome their f3 if available

 

[Pinnell]

Im the same. Dont see a need to force a 3rd pick. We have enough kids, and SPPs generally have a better hit rate then late draft picks anyway.

I'd take Noah Hibbon Hargraves if he happens to fall....seems he is.... was rated within the top 12 at the beginning of the year. Injuries and illness have left his bottom age year almost better than his top age year

 

[ctwenty1]

Im the same. Dont see a need to force a 3rd pick. We have enough kids, and SPPs generally have a better hit rate then late draft picks anyway.

we will have our list of players and if there is someone available at our third pick then i imagine we take that player

reckon a lot of scenarios have been planned for

 

[azlou]

This draft isn’t as exciting as last year we seem to have locked in our picks already.
It’s a bit of a fizzer as far mystery speculations and intrigue go.
It looks like tomorrow might hold some interest but tonight looks bla

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Louis Emmett as our surprise late pick draftee? Mini Scotch College gang with Jagga, Cooper, Ison, and him?

Would love him to but doubt he makes it that far. From todays reports we're looking at a small forward with our 3rd selection if Ison gets bid on earlier than we'd like.

Leon Kickett
Hugo Mikunda
Tobyn Murray
Wes Walley
Jesse Mellor
Jai Saxena

All be small forwards I'd imagine will be in play in that range. Kickett may go a bit earlier than that though, Tigers reportedly very keen as a Shai Bolton replacement.

 

[skadoosh]

This draft isn’t as exciting as last year we seem to have locked in our picks already.
It’s a bit of a fizzer as far mystery speculations and intrigue go.
It looks like tomorrow might hold some interest but tonight looks bla

If you've known what you're getting for Christmas for a long time, does that reduce the quality or calibre of your present? No and no.

 

[Gw2_James]

Yeah screw early round picks, let's get that Greek kid. Last time we won a premiership, we had a Greek player, haven't won one since so we need a Greek player!

 

[ctwenty1]

No, we wouldn't have enough points for a bid on Ison if we used that pick (26).

Here's the full story, with all trades happening (for us and Gold Coast) as CT has predicted, and all bids/picks as CT has predicted.

1. Start of draft, we have: 9, 11, 43 & 54

2. Following Ess/NM trades, we have: 21, 25, 27, 30, 46 and a F2

3. After bid on Uwland at 2 (matched), we have: 20, 23, 25, 28, 44 and a F2

4. With the bid on Dean at pick 3, we lose 20, 23 and 25, and gain 51 and 72.

5. We will then have 26, 43, 51, 72 and a F2.

6. After Richmond bid on Patterson and Annable, we'll have 24, 39, 48 = 980 points (can match a bid on Ison at 15+).

7. Jump forward to pick 22, where Geelong bid on Ison. At this point we have picks 26, 38, 47, 72 (these numbers have changed due to some earlier bids on Kyle and Murray).

8. We lose 26 and 38 matching the Ison bid, and gain 40. We then have 40, 47, 72 and a F2.

Maybe we could try bundling 40 and 47 to a slightly higher pick, but it's unlikely.

Now, to address the questions above...

If Geelong don't bid on Ison, and it gets through to our pick 26, and we use it on another player. Then we're left with 38, 47, 72 = 395 points. If a bid on Ison comes in at 27, that would cost 449 points - we're 46 points short. And it's still round one, so that deficit would carry through to round one next year, which is undesirable.

If Ison is not bid on until pick 27 (ie after our pick 26) any defict will fall to the second round, not first. So our two first rounders for 2026 are not impacted

 

[azlou]

If you've known what you're getting for Christmas for a long time, does that reduce the quality or calibre of your present? No and no.

I’m not complaining about the quality of the presents just that unwrapping them is half the fun.

 

[SurreyBlue]

Just hope we can draft a KP forward with our last pick. You never know, they might even surprises us all with development.

 

[Stamos]

Hun Late Mail

LATE MAIL: Father-son prospect Harry Dean will have his Carlton jumper presented to him tonight by father and two-time premiership Blue, Peter. The Blues appear to be in the market for small forwards later in the piece. Geelong VFL’s Tobyn Murray shapes as a late draft or rookie chance, having toured Ikon Park and interviewed with the Blues. They have also shown interest in WA bolter Leon Kickett, Geelong Falcons duo Hugo Mikunda and Jesse Mellor, Oskar Ainsworth, Jack Miller and Sandringham Dragon Willis Reidy, who wasn’t invited to the state combine.

 

[El Topo]

If tonight goes as expected we'll have downgraded a pick in the teens this year to Norf's future 2nd.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Hun Late Mail

B.T. couldnt cope with 2 Durdin's. 2 Reidy's might be too much for him.

 

[ctwenty1]

B.T. couldnt cope with 2 Durdin's. 2 Reidy's might be too much for him.

Yeah, even if there is three foot height difference between the two of them

 

[AndyLucimitis]

This draft isn’t as exciting as last year we seem to have locked in our picks already.
It’s a bit of a fizzer as far mystery speculations and intrigue go.
It looks like tomorrow might hold some interest but tonight looks bla

As a grumpy old man I'm going out on a limb and tipping one thing.

Pretty much every draftee will be mobbed and leapt upon by half a dozen of his mates and family.

 

[Big Delut]

This draft isn’t as exciting as last year we seem to have locked in our picks already.
It’s a bit of a fizzer as far mystery speculations and intrigue go.
It looks like tomorrow might hold some interest but tonight looks bla

Last year we were widely expected to draft Jagga, heavily linked with HOF and had the Campo twins locked in. I didn't find it mysterious at all.

 

[CCurnow3picks]

If you've known what you're getting for Christmas for a long time, does that reduce the quality or calibre of your present? No and no.

It does if it’s a bucket o’ prawns

 

[Stamos]

 

[Stamos]

 

[azlou]

Last year we were widely expected to draft Jagga, heavily linked with HOF and had the Campo twins locked in. I didn't find it mysterious at all.
[/
That’s not at all how I remembered it I watched the draft because I had some idea but no confirmation on any of our picks or where Ben might be bid on.
Personally I think your full of it to say you knew we would take Jagga and hof unless your gullible enough to believe speculation as fact

 

[reubsblues]

Tonight will be boring as bat shit
We already know who we are getting
The whole draft is boring and drawn out like everything else AFL