Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Bundy Bear Bogan]

Soo … should we have kept pick 11?

By my calculations, if no one bids on Ison by pick 29 then we can make our transaction with north null and void and get pick 11 back. Then we can take that pick

 

[carlton_99]

I'm still holding out Elijah hope and would almost prefer us to trade 28 for a F2 if we got there. Turning 9 and 11 (in reality 13 and 15) into Dean, Ison and 2 x F2 would be a massive win. But in all fairness my knowledge on the players remaining in the draft is next to zero.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

By my calculations, if no one bids on Ison by pick 29 then we can make our transaction with north null and void and get pick 11 back. Then we can take that pick

I think it might be easier just to buy North again like we did in the 90’s and that way we can get Pick 11 back.

 

[Brezsa]

Assuming 28 is traded out
With 38 + 44 is 444 points, equivalent to pick 31

However with the 10% discount we can match with no deficit from pick 28

So if the bid came straight up at the next pick (26) we’d have a 60 point deficit it would slide out first second round pick next year by about 2-4 spots (depending if it’s an early or late pick)

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

We've known for at least 2 years now that Cody is an absolute gun. The changes suck but we'd have been planning on banking points no matter what the rules end up being.

We knew but not necessarily Pick 1 good. Also we had no way of knowing what changed would come. What I'm saying is we don't necessarily have a Pick 1 bid covered next year, but we did well to be in the vicinity.

 

[Crippa#9]

If it’s me I’m 100% drafting Phillipou if Ison doesn’t get vid.

No brainer. The kid is a talent

He’ll certainly tell you that!

No thanks. there’s a reason he hasn’t been drafted yet.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

I think Heatherton because he’s an athletic freak… would like any of them though.

From my limited viewing Emmett reminds me of Kreuzer with his marking and follow up ruck work when the ball hits the deck after a stoppage.

Emmett's draft profile describes him as a very good runner?

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Assuming 28 is traded out
With 38 + 44 is 444 points, equivalent to pick 31

However with the 10% discount we can match with no deficit from pick 28

So if the bid came straight up at the next pick (26) we’d have a 60 point deficit it would slide out first second round pick next year by about 2-4 spots (depending if it’s an early or late pick)

No more 10% discount.

Round 2 is a flat 84 point discount.

Either way though, we'll be right.

 

[Stamos]

Assuming 28 is traded out
With 38 + 44 is 444 points, equivalent to pick 31

However with the 10% discount we can match with no deficit from pick 28

So if the bid came straight up at the next pick (26) we’d have a 60 point deficit it would slide out first second round pick next year by about 2-4 spots (depending if it’s an early or late pick)

84 points at this stage of the draft, so the deficits would be 33 points (bid at 26) or 5 points (27).

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I think Archie Ludowyke is worth a punt. We lost two key forwards, so adding one should be a priority if he is there. One genuine key forward on a list is crazy stuff.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We knew but not necessarily Pick 1 good. Also we had no way of knowing what changed would come. What I'm saying is we don't necessarily have a Pick 1 bid covered next year, but we did well to be in the vicinity.

We'd need minimum pick 10 + 11 assuming they don't get rid of the 10% discount and only 2 picks allowed to match a bid...

 

[branedotorg]

I think Archie Ludowyke is worth a punt. We lost two key forwards, so adding one should be a priority if he is there. One genuine key forward on a list is crazy stuff.

Yep, it's been my expectation since Dean crept into top 10 calculations that we'd look at him, ison and whichever KPF we had a chance on. Like the look of Ludo but thought it would be Marsh

 

[DangerousD]

If we get a live pick at 28, regardless of needs, who’s the best available?

If it comes down to the best available small forward or tall forward? Which player is the more likely to make the grade?

 

[carlton_99]

84 points at this stage of the draft, so the deficits would be 33 points (bid at 26) or 5 points (27).

Do these deficits matter when they aren't enough to drop a 1st round pick down? Like do they get applied to a later pick in that case?

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Glad sos had no say tonight

After what WC did? Not even SOS would have bid on Dean at #3.

SOS is the least of our worries.

 

[Opium]

I'd like to pick up Jevan Phillipou if he's still on the board.

Although a KPF Is the biggest need.

 

[Bletch]

Scenario 1: Bid before our pick 28.
Norf bid on Ison. Match with 28, get pick 53 back.
WB bid on Ison. Match with 28, get pick 52 back.
In either case, we have picks 38, 44 and 52/53 remaining. We'll only use 38, and it's unlikely we'll be able to trade up, nor trade those picks out for a future. Bit of a waste.

Scenario 2: No bid before our pick 28.
We use 28 on best available.
Later bid on Ison can be matched with 38 and 44. Remainder goes to waste.

Scenario 3: Trade 28 down for better 3rd pick
Idea being to trade 28 down a few places in order to get a 3rd pick earlier than 38.
Very limited opportunity. WC have 29 and 34. Pies 32 and 37.

Scenario 4: Trade 28 out for a future.
Gives us another pick next year, likely a late 2nd round. Very handy, given it's likely to be a strong draft.
Match Ison with 38 and 44 as above.
Depending on where the Ison bid comes, we'll have a 3rd pick somewhere between 38 and about 52.

Scenario 5: Trade 28 down for a future.
e.g. 28 for Pies 32. Get a minor future pick from them.
A bit meh, but maybe.

Strategy:
Wait on Scenario 2 above. If bid comes in, move to Scenario 4 or 5, which would need to be prepared beforehand.


Edit: Missed one.
Scenario 6: Trade up.
Swap 28 for Norf's 26 and whatever else will be required, prob have to give them back their F2.
Gives us our pick of the crop, Norf only drop 2 places, so should be attractive for them.
And again, we still match Ison with 38 and 44.

 

[Brezsa]

No more 10% discount.

Round 2 is a flat 84 point discount.

Either way though, we'll be right.

Whoops my bad ignore me & I did maths for nothing

 

[DrTrain]

At this point I don’t see how we lose. If no bid and there is someone we want then we pick. If a bid comes we will have had overnight to organise a trade with pies. 28 for their F2 plus 47 and 51. Easily enough points for us.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

We knew but not necessarily Pick 1 good. Also we had no way of knowing what changed would come. What I'm saying is we don't necessarily have a Pick 1 bid covered next year, but we did well to be in the vicinity.

We have 2 2026 firsts, 2 2027 firsts and a 2026 2nd tied to Norf. We have pick 1 covered.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Emmett's draft profile describes him as a very good runner?

Extremely gifted runner. Motors around as well as any big man in the game. His ruck craft leaves a bit to be desired in comparison though.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

We'd need minimum pick 10 + 11 assuming they don't get rid of the 10% discount and only 2 picks allowed to match a bid...

We'd need more than that.

Pick 1 is 3000 points minus 10% is 2700.

Pick 10 is 1276. 11 is 1205. That's 2481.

10 and 8 would get it done. If Swans are top 3, that's 15 and 5. But they will be pushed back through free agency. I think it's probable we have to trade up using other picks.

 

[Andrewgtv05]

We'd need more than that.

Pick 1 is 3000 points minus 10% is 2700.

Pick 10 is 1276. 11 is 1205. That's 2481.

10 and 8 would get it done. If Swans are top 3, that's 15 and 5. But they will be pushed back through free agency. I think it's probable we have to trade up using other picks.

My idea is that we trade away players we don’t need for extra first round picks.

 

[Bletch]

We have 2 2026 firsts, 2 2027 firsts and a 2026 2nd tied to Norf. We have pick 1 covered.

Unless it's the Swans we beat for the flag

 

[Andypooh23]

If there is no bid on Ison before 28 and we want future picks......
I've seen somewhere that Saints are desperate for Phillipou.
What about 28 and North's Future 2nd for their Future 1st?