Have Richmond passed North and west coast

[Makeshift Park]

Clubs normally win flags when the talls are at mature and developed in the 25-30 year old range.

Trembath, Goad, Combden, Dawson, Thredgold and Whitlock may be promising names on paper, but the reality is they need another 5-7 years of playing together before the side will contend.

That’s the issue with picking talls so late in the rebuild.

Guys like Zuurhaar, Larkey and Xerri will keep the club competitive until then, but they won’t be around for their tilt if it comes.

Take your point, and the list build has been far from perfect, but lets test your premiership window theory.

When the Cats won in 2022, Hawkins was 34, Stanley was 31, and Danger was 32. And SDK was 21.

Mason Cox was 32 in 2023.

By contrast, in five years time (2030), Zurhaar, Logue and Larkey will be 32, X will be 31. So a bit on the older side, but with clear recent precedents to suggest it doesn't preclude their chances.

Also, Comben will be 29 in 2030. Trembath and Goad will both be 25. So five years older than Luke Jackson was in 2021, six years older than Logan Morris in 2024.

From the sole perspective of the key talls' ages, the premiership window should begin in 2028, when Larkey, Zurhaar, Xerri, Comben, and Logue will still start the season still in their twenties. Trembath and Goad will turn 23 that year.

To say nothing of how it'll be easier for us to trade in quality talls once we're regularly winning games.

But I don't think 2028-30 will be too early or late for a spine of Larkey - Trembath - Xerri - Comben - Dawson (INT: Logue/Goad).

 

[Rich01]

Take your point, and the list build has been far from perfect, but lets test your premiership window theory.

When the Cats won in 2022, Hawkins was 34, Stanley was 31, and Danger was 32. And SDK was 21.

Mason Cox was 32 in 2023.

By contrast, in five years time (2030), Zurhaar, Logue and Larkey will be 32, X will be 31. So a bit on the older side, but with clear recent precedents to suggest it doesn't preclude their chances.

Also, Comben will be 29 in 2030. Trembath and Goad will both be 25. So five years older than Luke Jackson was in 2021, six years older than Logan Morris in 2024.

From the sole perspective of the key talls' ages, the premiership window should begin in 2028, when Larkey, Zurhaar, Xerri, Comben, and Logue will still start the season still in their twenties. Trembath and Goad will turn 23 that year.

To say nothing of how it'll be easier for us to trade in quality talls once we're regularly winning games.

But I don't think 2028-30 will be too early or late for a spine of Larkey - Trembath - Xerri - Comben - Dawson (INT: Logue/Goad).

Yeah that’s a decent analysis but I still think that core group of talls needs at least 5 more years before they mature and take over. Not all will make it either. Whether you can contend with them developing into roles during that time is to be seen.

But the clubs you mentioned had mature talls mainly holding the fort and a small amount of younger guys contributing.

Richmond had Astbury, Rance, Riewoldt and Nankervis as experienced talls. Then added Lynch.

Seasoned mids like Prestia, Cotchin, Martin.

Geelong had Stanley, Hawkins, Stewart and Cameron.

Seasoned mids like Guthrie, Danger, Selwood etc.

Brisbane had O, Fort, Andrews, Hipwood, Daniher.

Seasoned mids like McLugg, Neale, Raynor to complement the young guys.

I’m not saying it won’t all come together, but that’s the recent formula for success.

 

[Chip Scab1]

Yeah that’s a decent analysis but I still think that core group of talls needs at least 5 more years before they mature and take over. Not all will make it either. Whether you can contend with them developing into roles during that time is to be seen.

But the clubs you mentioned had mature talls mainly holding the fort and a small amount of younger guys contributing.

Richmond had Astbury, Rance, Riewoldt and Nankervis as experienced talls. Then added Lynch.

Seasoned mids like Prestia, Cotchin, Martin.

Geelong had Stanley, Hawkins, Stewart and Cameron.

Seasoned mids like Guthrie, Danger, Selwood etc.

Brisbane had O, Fort, Andrews, Hipwood, Daniher.

Seasoned mids like McLugg, Neale, Raynor to complement the young guys.

I’m not saying it won’t all come together, but that’s the recent formula for success.

Current formula for improvement is move relevant than 10 years ago...seriously. It's basically a different game. For all our faults (and there are plenty)... Having Larkey and Xerri (2x AA quality players) picked at 73 & 74. Curtis picked in the late 30s, Trembath, Comben and Hardeman (MSD, ~30 & ~25).

We're going ok as we've spent 7 years on our midfield and only Will Phillips is definitely not good.

 

[Makeshift Park]

But the clubs you mentioned had mature talls mainly holding the fort and a small amount of younger guys contributing.

Richmond had Astbury, Rance, Riewoldt and Nankervis as experienced talls. Then added Lynch.

Seasoned mids like Prestia, Cotchin, Martin.

Geelong had Stanley, Hawkins, Stewart and Cameron.

Seasoned mids like Guthrie, Danger, Selwood etc.

Brisbane had O, Fort, Andrews, Hipwood, Daniher.

Seasoned mids like McLugg, Neale, Raynor to complement the young guys.

I’m not saying it won’t all come together, but that’s the recent formula for success.

But if we're saying North's window starts in 2028, how is that different from the past few years?

LDU will be 29 - surely that's seasoned mid territory?

Brisbane just won twice in a row with a midfield of Neale (31/32), Dunkley (27/28), McCluggage (26/27) and Ashcroft (20/21).

Wardlaw and Sheeze will be 24 in 2028. Not veterans but in the same part of their career and Dunkley and McCluggage when they won a premiership in 2024.

No doubt we'll get a couple older players between now and then too.

But even if we didn't, the overall list age demographic is fine for a premiership tilt from 2028-30.

In the meantime, the big unknown is how much continuity we can expect from promising types like Goater, George, Archer and Duursma, who've all been waylaid by injuries to varying extents.

Also uncertain whether Clarko is the coach to get the best out of this group of players, and whether he can still be tactically sharp enough to compete at the highest level.

 

[Rich01]

But if we're saying North's window starts in 2028, how is that different from the past few years?

LDU will be 29 - surely that's seasoned mid territory?

Brisbane just won twice in a row with a midfield of Neale (31/32), Dunkley (27/28), McCluggage (26/27) and Ashcroft (20/21).

Wardlaw and Sheeze will be 24 in 2028. Not veterans but in the same part of their career and Dunkley and McCluggage when they won a premiership in 2024.

I don’t think it starts in 2028.
Wardlaw and Sheezel at 24 then don’t have that age experience that Neale, McLugg and Dunkley had to bring them to a flag. Nor that of Oliver, Petracca, Viney. Or Selwood, Danger, Guthrie. Or Pendles, Sidey, Mitchell.

History shows they need a couple more years. Along with the talls being in that 25+ age bracket.

Let’s see how it pans out, but I’d be thinking by 2028 you’d be playing finals but not ready for flag contention. 2030 you’ll have a couple of years in the window if your untried young talls have needed up making it as players as hoped.

Time will tell I spose. And you guys have been through a lot of pain in the last decade so are due some success. Hopefully sooner than later for your sake. Heading in the right direction.

 

[Thrillhouse!]

Why is this norf bloke so chippy? Haha

 

[Makeshift Park]

Why is this norf bloke so chippy? Haha

It’s November and my women’s team is in the grannie again.

 

[boncer34]

I don’t think it starts in 2028.
Wardlaw and Sheezel at 24 then don’t have that age experience that Neale, McLugg and Dunkley had to bring them to a flag. Nor that of Oliver, Petracca, Viney. Or Selwood, Danger, Guthrie. Or Pendles, Sidey, Mitchell.

History shows they need a couple more years. Along with the talls being in that 25+ age bracket.

Let’s see how it pans out, but I’d be thinking by 2028 you’d be playing finals but not ready for flag contention. 2030 you’ll have a couple of years in the window if your untried young talls have needed up making it as players as hoped.

Time will tell I spose. And you guys have been through a lot of pain in the last decade so are due some success. Hopefully sooner than later for your sake. Heading in the right direction.

How old do you think Petracca and Oliver were when Melbourne won the flag?

 

[Daka]

lol Richmond will be lucky to win 2. You really haven't bottomed out yet. You still have heaps of older experienced players.

Hilarious, Duursma is better than any kid on your list. Literally twice as good as Hammies.

That he scrapes into our top 10 kids shows that you still have 7-8 years left of your rebuild, in even more compromised drafts.

And even more hilarious is that you couldn't attend one of your flags.

This was a weaker draft than last year, Willem Duursma wouldn't have gone number 1 last year, Cal Twomey even said if "Harvey Langford" was in this draft he'd go number 1.

 

[bzparkes]

This was a weaker draft than last year, Willem Duursma wouldn't have gone number 1 last year, Cal Twomey even said if "Harvey Langford" was in this draft he'd go number 1.

1. Wrong Duursma

2. When did Twomey say that?

 

[Obeanie1]

might as well put this here

The final trade between north and tigers ended up

Matt Whitlock + Blake Thergold*

For

Sam Grlj**

* technically the tigers picked went to Carlton to upgrade into Dovastan but for comparisons sake I think using the thergold pick is appropriate

** obviously north may have selected a different player

No one knows how the players will develop but north have been criticised for not taking key position players and this trade got us two

Plus, the trade allowed us to take FOS at 2 and not split and personally (rose coloured glasses) I wouldn’t trade FOS for any player in either the 2024 or 2025 drafts

Not a bad outcome.

Two KP talls for a quick mid / forward who was hard to rank.

North didnt need Grilj and they needed talls.

Certainly not the stuff up many thought at the time. Some saying the worst trade ever.

 

[Daka]

1. Wrong Duursma

2. When did Twomey say that?

He said it on gettable this year.

 

[bzparkes]

He said it on gettable this year.

Ok, when?

Early, mid?

 

[tigerfan1961]

lol Richmond will be lucky to win 2. You really haven't bottomed out yet. You still have heaps of older experienced players.

Hilarious, Duursma is better than any kid on your list. Literally twice as good as Hammies.

That he scrapes into our top 10 kids shows that you still have 7-8 years left of your rebuild, in even more compromised drafts.

And even more hilarious is that you couldn't attend one of your flags.

What a load of cr@p. Duursma

 

[Happy Mastenator]

This was a weaker draft than last year, Willem Duursma wouldn't have gone number 1 last year, Cal Twomey even said if "Harvey Langford" was in this draft he'd go number 1.

Look I like Langford but that silly. He’s vanilla as. Duursma has a lot more upside. Not sure if he’ll make it but you take that upside every day and twice on draft day.

 

[Rich01]

lol Richmond will be lucky to win 2. You really haven't bottomed out yet. You still have heaps of older experienced players.

Hilarious, Duursma is better than any kid on your list. Literally twice as good as Hammies.

Zane ain’t twice as good as Wardlaw.

For all his disposal deficiencies, George cracks in hard and gets the ball, which is far more than Zane does. Half back or bust for your Duursma this year id say.

 

[Obeanie1]

This was a weaker draft than last year, Willem Duursma wouldn't have gone number 1 last year, Cal Twomey even said if "Harvey Langford" was in this draft he'd go number 1.

 

[rado]

I sleep well knowing you've seen 2, I've seen 2 and we're infinitely closer to 3 than you, despite you being 3x bigger.

I know Richmond fans, the majority are tradies and live in Scoresby or further east, it's ok, my sister married a jungle-themed onesie wearer. I know all about you.

You waited 35 years for a flag and won 3, shame you could only see 2. You also got to see GWS so really only 1/2 a flag. Not like you saw your team beat Carlton or a Sydney. Genuine hateful organisations. You waited all that time and you got 2 expansion clubs one being the Crows who are actually likeable. That would have me on suicide watch.

Calm down beautiful your head might pop if you don’t get that blood pressure down.

All your talk about expansion clubs is interesting, considering the team you support has practically exhibited expansion club traits its whole existence.

Stay in your lane brojo, back with the unsuccessful minnow clubs like st kilda and the bulldogs where you belong lol

 

[Chip Scab1]

Top 8 next year you reckon?

I'm penciling in Wildcard Weekend, reckon we're a sniff of a) making it and b) beating a Carlton or Essington or maybe a Melbourne should they have a bit of a dead-cat bounce.

If we can get a few of our injured blokes to be upright for a a few 6 week blocks, we'll go close.

 

[Chip Scab1]

To say nothing of how it'll be easier for us to trade in quality talls once we're regularly winning games.

It won't. The only way we can get a good forward is through the draft.

 

[THE_GUN]

Chip Scab on fire
must be sunday

 

[Senor M]

I'm penciling in Wildcard Weekend, reckon we're a sniff of a) making it and b) beating a Carlton or Essington or maybe a Melbourne should they have a bit of a dead-cat bounce.

If we can get a few of our injured blokes to be upright for a a few 6 week blocks, we'll go close.

For which year? 2030?

 

[Chip Scab1]

For which year? 2030?

2026.

We're a flag chance from 2027-2036

 

[juss]

lol Richmond will be lucky to win 2. You really haven't bottomed out yet. You still have heaps of older experienced players.

Hilarious, Duursma is better than any kid on your list. Literally twice as good as Hammies.

That he scrapes into our top 10 kids shows that you still have 7-8 years left of your rebuild, in even more compromised drafts.

And even more hilarious is that you couldn't attend one of your flags.

We'll win more than 2. I mean we did that this year when people said we wouldn't win a game.

Feel free to bookmark this for 12 months though to see how your prediction goes

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

I'm penciling in Wildcard Weekend, reckon we're a sniff of a) making it and b) beating a Carlton or Essington or maybe a Melbourne should they have a bit of a dead-cat bounce.

If we can get a few of our injured blokes to be upright for a a few 6 week blocks, we'll go close.