Remove this Banner Ad

Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

According to Cal it sounds like 2 picks to match, no discount, but keeping the ability to go into deficit. Also, closing the loophole that allows you to have more picks then list spots after the draft opens. Although nobody would use that with a 2 pick limit anyway.

If the deficit stays at 1167, and a bid came at 1, we could match Cody with 14 and 18 or 15 and 17. If the deficit is lowered to 836 (equivalent to pick 18) then we'd need 12 and 14. Pick 2 bid would be pretty easy in either case.

Although not sure how they manage deficits for 2027, given everyones natural selections will get pushed down a mile from Tassie.
Does that mean it was a genius move to get 2 second and 3rd rounders b/c they can not be diluted?
 
We are giving up half of a densely populated metro zone for a chunk of the state with a low population and not a great deal of ethnic diversity. I don't think we have crunched the numbers on the re-zone too well.

The Goulburn Valley alone has a sizeable population. I grew up in the area and the town I lived in had a substantial Italian and Turkish community, mainly due to the various substantial fruit growing areas, not to mention the first nations population is substantial from Shepp and north of shepp.

It's a LOT more diverse than population centres like Ballarat and Bendigo (both of which I have also lived in).

Edit: Wow, really over-used susbstantial there. 🤣
 
We are giving up half of a densely populated metro zone for a chunk of the state with a low population and not a great deal of ethnic diversity. I don't think we have crunched the numbers on the re-zone too well.
That's an interesting point, these NGA zones aren't like the old VFL recruiting, breeding ground ones.

It might be beneficial to be allocated a non aussie rules dominant area, and strike it lucky with an athletic, but recent convert to the game.
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

The Goulburn Valley alone has a sizeable population. I grew up in the area and the town I lived in had a substantial Italian and Turkish community, mainly due to the various substantial fruit growing areas, not to mention the first nations population is substantial from Shepp and north of shepp.

It's a LOT more diverse than population centres like Ballarat and Bendigo (both of which I have also lived in).

Edit: Wow, really over-used susbstantial there. 🤣
What do you consider a sizable population - 250k? I'm trying to think who the Tigers have brought in to the league from this zone and I'm drawing a blank. Our metro zone was just starting to produce and it's getting chopped in half. There's a lot more than 250 k there.
 
Noticed while watching the Swans draft video on their website

Had Dean rated at 6 in the draft. Not sure what the brackets 1 refers to.

Anyway, I found it interesting to see where they rated certain players.

View attachment 2486166
Looks like they rated Cooer Duff-Tytler 10th, interesting reading between the lines..
 
Someone correct me if I’m wrong and correct my hypothetical


Say the picks we have next year are 9,10 and 20


Walker gets a bid at 1 we match with 9 and 10 and take whatever deficit it comes with

Does that mean we can still pick with 20??
 
What I heard turned out correct, think we did well.

Regionalzones.jpg

MetroZones.jpg
So what did we lose and what did we gain? I wonder if we got our wish and got access to a national zone, pretty sure we are the only club without one
 
Last edited:
What do you consider a sizable population - 250k? I'm trying to think who the Tigers have brought in to the league from this zone and I'm drawing a blank. Our metro zone was just starting to produce and it's getting chopped in half. There's a lot more than 250 k there.

Metro we lost Nillumbuk and Banyule, basically hippies, diversity questionable.

We kept Whittlesea and Darebin, good diverse working class areas.

We gained all the Goulburn valley and a good chunk of the Murray probably the most diverse part of rural Victoria.

The metro region we lost has 200k population. The metro region we kept has 400k population.

We gained Shepparton and Hulme which is 330k population.

Gaining Goulburn valley and Murray MORE than makes up for losing 200k hippies.

Loss 200k (hippies)
Gain 330k (diverse)

Edit: In summary we gain more in population and also diversity, therefore you are wrong.
 
Last edited:
Only off eyeball I would say that the NGA area covers Carlton Northcote Preston, Thomastown, Epping, Reservoir, South Morang, Whittlesea, Wallan, Yea, Shepparton ,Wodonga, Benalla, Wangaratta
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Does anyone know how exactly the deficits are expected to work? I gather that they contribute a points value equivalent with the last natural pick of the round, so pick 18 for R1. How does this change the clubs pick the next year? If they finish last, do they lose pick 1? or does the points value get shaved off and they move back? How does if work if they traded a future pick? either in or out.


Also, I am incredibly excited about Cody as a player, but surely effectively paying 3 good first round picks for an 18 year old is a little steep...
 
Does anyone know how exactly the deficits are expected to work? I gather that they contribute a points value equivalent with the last natural pick of the round, so pick 18 for R1. How does this change the clubs pick the next year? If they finish last, do they lose pick 1? or does the points value get shaved off and they move back? How does if work if they traded a future pick? either in or out.


Also, I am incredibly excited about Cody as a player, but surely effectively paying 3 good first round picks for an 18 year old is a little steep...
How much would you expect to pay for Harley Reid or Nick Daicos in a trade? No different to Cody who projects as a similarly freakish prospect.
 
Does anyone know how exactly the deficits are expected to work? I gather that they contribute a points value equivalent with the last natural pick of the round, so pick 18 for R1. How does this change the clubs pick the next year? If they finish last, do they lose pick 1? or does the points value get shaved off and they move back? How does if work if they traded a future pick? either in or out.


Also, I am incredibly excited about Cody as a player, but surely effectively paying 3 good first round picks for an 18 year old is a little steep...
Nobody knows what the rules will be exactly. I imagine you would need to hold the picks to go into deficit. Also, your pick slides back
 
Does anyone know how exactly the deficits are expected to work? I gather that they contribute a points value equivalent with the last natural pick of the round, so pick 18 for R1. How does this change the clubs pick the next year? If they finish last, do they lose pick 1? or does the points value get shaved off and they move back? How does if work if they traded a future pick? either in or out.

The way it has worked previously is, there is a maximum allowable deficit which assumes you win the premiership, so pick 18 + 36 + 54 = 1167 points (with the new DVI), so if the deficit is greater than that you can't match.

If you do take a deficit into the next year, it comes from your pick in the round that the bid is in (assume 1st).
So say you have a 300 point deficit, and you finish 10th.
Your pick is 9 (1355 points), then you get the 300 points taken off that pick to have 1055 points, so it slides to pick 14.
 
How much would you expect to pay for Harley Reid or Nick Daicos in a trade? No different to Cody who projects as a similarly freakish prospect.

It is different. Don’t think it’s a good comparison.
Nick Daicos has proven himself to be almost the best player in the AFL competition.
Harley Reid has shown a lot at afl level being extremely dynamic.

Cody Walker is still a junior footballer who hasn’t played AFL and as such hasn’t proven himself to be at there level.

Its reasonable to ask how much you give up to match a really high bid. Is an interesting discussion. But l would say clubs usually prefer the absolute elite talent over multiple later picks.
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

It is different. Don’t think it’s a good comparison.
Nick Daicos has proven himself to be almost the best player in the AFL competition.
Harley Reid has shown a lot at afl level being extremely dynamic.

Cody Walker is still a junior footballer who hasn’t played AFL and as such hasn’t proven himself to be at there level.

Its reasonable to ask how much you give up to match a really high bid. Is an interesting discussion. But l would say clubs usually prefer the absolute elite talent over multiple later picks.
Before Reid got drafted there were reports that clubs had offered WCE 3 top 10 picks for pick 1 that year despite not proving himself at AFL level yet. Daicos was club tied but would have had the same situation unfold if he was available in the open pool.

These players are freaks from an early age and recruiters know their work rate, skillset and intangibles will see them dominate the top level too. Blind freddy could tell you that with some of these players.

Cody is no different and thus we'll likely have to pay a painful price to get him in the door. Will be worth every cent though.
 
It is different. Don’t think it’s a good comparison.
Nick Daicos has proven himself to be almost the best player in the AFL competition.
Harley Reid has shown a lot at afl level being extremely dynamic.

Cody Walker is still a junior footballer who hasn’t played AFL and as such hasn’t proven himself to be at there level.

Its reasonable to ask how much you give up to match a really high bid. Is an interesting discussion. But l would say clubs usually prefer the absolute elite talent over multiple later picks.
We gave up 2 firsts and a second to get Jagga. The price for CW will be similar. We don't have to pay up if we think it is overs. CW will be worth it
 
The way it has worked previously is, there is a maximum allowable deficit which assumes you win the premiership, so pick 18 + 36 + 54 = 1167 points (with the new DVI), so if the deficit is greater than that you can't match.

If you do take a deficit into the next year, it comes from your pick in the round that the bid is in (assume 1st).
So say you have a 300 point deficit, and you finish 10th.
Your pick is 9 (1355 points), then you get the 300 points taken off that pick to have 1055 points, so it slides to pick 14.
In a 2027 draft where Tas is going to ruin the 1st round, I don't see that as a big problem. I'd rather use the lowest 2026 picks possible to get Cody (and possibly still a pick later in the 1st round), and take as close as possible to the full 1167 point deficit in 2027.
 
In a 2027 draft where Tas is going to ruin the 1st round, I don't see that as a big problem. I'd rather use the lowest 2026 picks possible to get Cody (and possibly still a pick later in the 1st round), and take as close as possible to the full 1167 point deficit in 2027.
I think we will have a super strong hand for 2027, there will be a number of high end players coming out of contract that will want to come home. Hopefully we can use these points/picks to snare one, unless there is a gun F/S that I've missed???
 
In a 2027 draft where Tas is going to ruin the 1st round, I don't see that as a big problem. I'd rather use the lowest 2026 picks possible to get Cody (and possibly still a pick later in the 1st round), and take as close as possible to the full 1167 point deficit in 2027.

Who knows what the AFL will do in terms of allowable deficit for 2027 (if Tassie come in)?
Do they take into account all the Tassie picks and therefore allow a much smaller deficit?
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Official Club Stuff Carlton Academy - Next Gen & Father/Son/Daughter Discussion II

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top