List Mgmt. 2025 AFL Draft - Draft Analysis

[Meteoric Rise]

Would you have been ok with us offloading pick 8 this year for 25 and 26?

Pick 8 in this year's draft for picks 26 in this years and 27 last year(say we didn't also have 28 and we took Sims with this pick) probably not ideal for us, but I wouldn't cry about it if the players suited our needs.

I think we get caught up too much in what the general value of picks is. The recruiters are looking at the specific value of picks in a given draft against the players available at those picks. They are not trying to win a fantasy draft. They are trying to build a flag team.

I just think in this trade Richmond did nicely out of it and got a nice little premium due to having the picks North wanted, and also got on the right side of North's finishing position. North didn't gain extra value but they got the picks corresponding to the players they wanted in the two drafts. There is nothing wrong with that.

 

[Rich01]

Pick 8 in this year's draft for picks 26 in this years and 27 last year(say we didn't also have 28 and we took Sims with this pick) probably not ideal for us, but I wouldn't cry about it if the players suited our needs.

I think we get caught up too much in what the general value of picks is. The recruiters are looking at the specific value of picks in a given draft against the players available at those picks. They are not trying to win a fantasy draft. They are trying to build a flag team.

I just think in this trade Richmond did nicely out of it and got a nice little premium due to having the picks North wanted, and also got on the right side of North's finishing position. North didn't gain extra value but they got the picks corresponding to the players they wanted in the two drafts. There is nothing wrong with that.

Nah, 8 in this draft for 25 and and 26 this year. Keep your analysis balanced.

You’ve mentioned that you generally think 2 picks in the 20s are about the value of pick 8.

So would you do it?

 

[We are back baby!]

Of course...but are 2 x mid-20's picks worth more than pick-8? What about Pick-12? And are 2 x B+ players worth as much/more than 1 x A-grader? If we aren't discussing this on November 30th, then please bring some nuggets for us.

Is it even possible to answer any of these questions without a consensus as to what is an A Grader? So let me try to help you look for an answer ....

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Nah, 8 in this draft for 25 and and 26 this year. Keep your analysis balanced.

You’ve mentioned that you generally think 2 picks in the 20s are about the value of pick 8.

So would you do it?

I have written about 6 times I see pick 8 as being worth more than 2 x mid 20's picks. And that following trades over the years confirms this is how clubs see it. What I have also said is pick 8 is probably worth 20-25% more than the 2 x mid 20's picks. Not enough to trouble you if you can get the player types you want.

Of course you would first seek a better deal, but if none is forthcoming and all the guys around 8 are midfielders and you need KPP's for arguments sake and you like 1 or 2 ranked in the 20's, you make the trade. It would beat the **** out of taking one of your fancied KPP's at pick 8.

 

[tigs2010]

I have written about 6 times I see pick 8 as being worth more than 2 x mid 20's picks. And that following trades over the years confirms this is how clubs see it. What I have also said is pick 8 is probably worth 20-25% more than the 2 x mid 20's picks. Not enough to trouble you if you can get the player types you want.

Of course you would first seek a better deal, but if none is forthcoming and all the guys around 8 are midfielders and you need KPP's for arguments sake and you like 1 or 2 ranked in the 20's, you make the trade. It would beat the **** out of taking one of your fancied KPP's at pick 8.

Geez so youre saying North made another dud trade only getting 15 for 2 x 20s picks this year?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geez so youre saying North made another dud trade only getting 15 for 2 x 20s picks this year?

Jeez so you are saying Geelong were idiots to give us pick 17 in a stronger draft for pick 20 in a weaker draft because they fancied Max Holmes. It is a sin of recruiting to give up an earlier pick for a later pick no matter what...

It all comes down to how you rate the value of an available player versus a future pick when you make that sort of trade.

 

[tigs2010]

Jeez so you are saying Geelong were idiots to give us pick 17 in a stronger draft for pick 20 in a weaker draft because they fancied Max Holmes. It is a sin of recruiting to give up an earlier pick for a later pick no matter what...

It all comes down to how you rate the value of an available player versus a future pick when you make that sort of trade.

Almost the same

 

[DontArgue4]

Met a former Port recruiter today on the course, reckons Cumming is a freak and will be a top 10 player in the league if he reaches his potential

 

[THE_GUN]

Met a former Port recruiter today on the course, reckons Cumming is a freak and will be a top 10 player in the league if he reaches his potential

Did he say ' He has all the tools ' ?

 

[tigs2010]

Met a former Port recruiter today on the course, reckons Cumming is a freak and will be a top 10 player in the league if he reaches his potential

Checks Ports history

 

[DontArgue4]

Checks Ports history

I literally said this to him hahaha

 

[lizard man]

Met a former Port recruiter today on the course, reckons Cumming is a freak and will be a top 10 player in the league if he reaches his potential

Was the former port recruiter Blair Hartley?

 

[ShereKhan]

A few more snippets to help assess draft picks and ranges. Making an AA squad is a pretty good indication of a top-line season - in the top handful of players in the league for their position. Many players are capable of one-off excellent seasons to get a single AA squad selection, but once a player gets 2+ then they are more than just a B-grader who excelled for one season.

So here is the % of players who received 2 or more AA squad selections across their career (whether they make the team or not isn't factored in, they are just in the squad at least):

Pick 1: 40.91%

Pick 2: 40.91%

Pick 3-5: 19.70%

Pick 6-10: 16.36%

Pick 11-20: 14.09%

Pick 21-30: 6.36%

Pick 31-50: 6.67%

Pick 51-70: 2.45%

That one was just for you WABB

It further emphasises why a list is built over 6-7 x years and why you can't afford to sweat the misses too much.

If you had picks 3, 4 and 5 for 5 x consecutive drafts, so 15 x elite juniors....history tells you :

1. 11 of them will never make the final AA team.

2. Only 3 of 15 will make more than 1 x AA squad.

And more sobering than that...if you had picks 21-30 for 5 x consecutive drafts, so 50 x picks early in the second round:

1. 45 of them will never make an AA team.

2. Only 3 of 50 will make more than 1 x AA squad.


I guess all of this tells us why it's clear teams are willing to give multiple firsts for established elite players like Merrett, Butters, Petracca and Curnow. They are bloody hard to find. And when you get a Prestia for pick-6 or a TT for picks 12 and 21....it's a deadset bargain.

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Geez so youre saying North made another dud trade only getting 15 for 2 x 20s picks this year?

You had to mention North Melbourne.......

 

[poppa pump]

Twomey stated that after the draft when he spoke to most clubs that lots of clubs had Sam Cummings as top 3 AND THAT RICHMOND GAVE HIM NOTHING.

 

[_RT_]

If you thought the North trade/draft chat in this thread is bad, do not head over the PRE to read the training thread as that has been derailed like you wouldn't believe.

 

[Toadvine]

If you thought the North trade/draft chat in this thread is bad, do not head over the PRE to read the training thread as that has been derailed like you wouldn't believe.

#footgate

 

[_RT_]

#footgate

Pretty sure Meteoric Rise has a foot fetish after reading all that.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Nah, 8 in this draft for 25 and and 26 this year. Keep your analysis balanced.

You’ve mentioned that you generally think 2 picks in the 20s are about the value of pick 8.

So would you do it?

But Richmond got more than just Pick 8. By trading out two list spots for one, we were able to also draft Roberts-Thomson when we otherwise wouldn’t have been able to. That can’t be excluded

 

[Rich01]

But Richmond got more than just Pick 8. By trading out two list spots for one, we were able to also draft Roberts-Thomson when we otherwise wouldn’t have been able to. That can’t be excluded

I’m not questioning what Richmond did.
I’m questioning those that believe pick 8 is worth 2 picks in the 20s.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

I’m not questioning what Richmond did.
I’m questioning those that believe pick 8 is worth 2 picks in the 20s.

Yep, I realised that. Just adding to your argument. Sorry if that wasn’t clear.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Pretty sure Meteoric Rise has a foot fetish after reading all that.

Feet are beautiful RT.

 

[Karp3_dm]

Feet are beautiful RT.

I beg to differ
True All Aust ?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I’m not questioning what Richmond did.
I’m questioning those that believe pick 8 is worth 2 picks in the 20s.

Nobody believes 2 picks in the mid 20's are worth pick 8 generally.

But there are specific cases where they might be.

 

[All Aust]

I beg to differ
True All Aust ?

Not Mine.

Feet are to be looked after. I know for sure that both youself Meteoric Rise pay attention to detail.